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Cairn Horn88

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6 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

So the CNN legal guy broke down the main challenges Trump will raise. Correct me if I’m wrong, I’m paraphrasing 

1. State can’t enforce federal election laws 

2. Statute of Limitations 

3. Case is not related to Trump Org and shouldn’t be in front of this judge. Needs to be put back in pool of judges 

Says number 1 is unsettled law and will be the most interesting to follow. The other two, prosecutors should prevail 

 

Sol worries me, but I did hear something about the clock being stopped or tolled due to the Covid emergency.  The state courts in Louisiana were shut down for some time, and there was an extension of the statute of limitations, what we call prescription, due to Covid.

As to it being the same judge, I have no idea how they assign cases in that state court.  But it is true that the courts’s familiarity with the Trump organization in the prior case reduces the learning curve, and may be the most efficient use of that judges time.

I can’t remember if the Trumporg fraud decision was appealed or not. If it was appealed and affirmed, then you can’t say the judge was biased as easily.

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Okay for you to post it again.  Distracting him and his legal team with this otherwise pedestrian fraudulent funds case in lower Manhattan while they simultaneously round up dozens of other witnesses and evidence for the other 3 pending cases against him, all of a much more serious nature, is a great move.  

Long bothered many of us when somebody says, "Why can't politician A shift their focus from subject B to subject C?"  When adults know that in reality, an administration is perfectly capable and resourced to handle more than one topic at a time.  In Trump's case though, it's the literal truth.  He can only focus on one topic for a few days at a time, then must move on to the next one.  He'll be freaking the fuck out in Manhattan while the real wolves come for his sheep in DC, Georgia, and Florida.  Plus this case is set up so you'll know exactly where he'll be and when.  

Also, awkward move if you're a Secret Service agent to call in sick for Biden detail next week, "Uh, I've been subpoena'd as a Trump collaborator, but I'll be back to watch Joe next week after that."  

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Sol worries me, but I did hear something about the clock being stopped or tolled due to the Covid emergency.

I thought I read, probably on this site, that NY only rolls the clock on SOL when the person is physically in the state.  If so, that clock has barely moved for the past 7? years. 

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Sol worries me, but I did hear something about the clock being stopped or tolled due to the Covid emergency.  The state courts in Louisiana were shut down for some time, and there was an extension of the statute of limitations, what we call prescription, due to Covid.

As to it being the same judge, I have no idea how they assign cases in that state court.  But it is true that the courts’s familiarity with the Trump organization in the prior case reduces the learning curve, and may be the most efficient use of that judges time.

I can’t remember if the Trumporg fraud decision was appealed or not. If it was appealed and affirmed, then you can’t say the judge was biased as easily.

All this presumes the case is based on the Stormy Daniels stuff.  That's a small part of this, but there are 30 plus counts, which are all going to be related to business fraud, insurance fraud, etc.  The election fraud portion of this is getting all the attention, but when the indictment comes down, it will represent about 3% to 10% of the total indictment.  

Every time he signed financial documents he knew to be false, that's fraud.  They have the books, including the shadow set, they have all his communication and a document trail.  And while he covered tracks on some stuff, he didn't get it all, especially since he's a life long walking crime spree.  When it's released, people are going to be shocked, not at the level of crimes, but at the sheer stupidity and blatant nature of it all.  

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2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Sol worries me, but I did hear something about the clock being stopped or tolled due to the Covid emergency.  The state courts in Louisiana were shut down for some time, and there was an extension of the statute of limitations, what we call prescription, due to Covid.

As to it being the same judge, I have no idea how they assign cases in that state court.  But it is true that the courts’s familiarity with the Trump organization in the prior case reduces the learning curve, and may be the most efficient use of that judges time.

I can’t remember if the Trumporg fraud decision was appealed or not. If it was appealed and affirmed, then you can’t say the judge was biased as easily.

Limitations tolls in NY when the defendant is outside the state.  He's been pretty definitively out of NY since taking office.

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18 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

All this presumes the case is based on the Stormy Daniels stuff.  That's a small part of this, but there are 30 plus counts, which are all going to be related to business fraud, insurance fraud, etc.  The election fraud portion of this is getting all the attention, but when the indictment comes down, it will represent about 3% to 10% of the total indictment.  

Every time he signed financial documents he knew to be false, that's fraud.  They have the books, including the shadow set, they have all his communication and a document trail.  And while he covered tracks on some stuff, he didn't get it all, especially since he's a life long walking crime spree.  When it's released, people are going to be shocked, not at the level of crimes, but at the sheer stupidity and blatant nature of it all.  

Bank fraud would be a relatively easy case to prove, if they had the evidence. I don't think they do even after James' years-long investigation.  And it's a federal crime that they are used to proving.

I'd be shocked if any bank fraud counts are included here.

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13 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Bank fraud would be a relatively easy case to prove, if they had the evidence. I don't think they do even after James' years-long investigation.  And it's a federal crime that they are used to proving.

I'd be shocked if any bank fraud counts are included here.

Prepare to be shocked.  And they got the Trump Org for tax fraud.  

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/trump-organization-fraud-trial-verdict/index.html

Again, the amazing part of this will be just how stupid it is.  They kept records and paper trails.  Trump is the guy that robs a house, and if that weren't potentially enough to place you in legal peril, he ups the ante and brings a gun for no reason.  

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10 hours ago, Foosters said:

You honestly have no idea what you're talking about. 

Dude, just because you spend every day in criminal court doesn't make you an expert.  
 

I watch Judge Janine, motherfucker. She's a judge. You're a lowly criminal attorney. 

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59 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Prepare to be shocked.  And they got the Trump Org for tax fraud.  

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/trump-organization-fraud-trial-verdict/index.html

Again, the amazing part of this will be just how stupid it is.  They kept records and paper trails.  Trump is the guy that robs a house, and if that weren't potentially enough to place you in legal peril, he ups the ante and brings a gun for no reason.  

I'm fully aware.

I just think it's highly unlikely, given what we know so far, that this indictment is for anything other than falsifying documents in the first degree.  If they had a bank or insurance fraud case against him it would have leaked.

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3 hours ago, YGIFS said:

Also, awkward move if you're a Secret Service agent to call in sick for Biden detail next week, "Uh, I've been subpoena'd as a Trump collaborator, but I'll be back to watch Joe next week after that.

Pretty sure the subpoenaed secret service guys were on Trump detail at Mar a Lago

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I don't why I thought that every "agent", not backoffice/logistics/support, goes through every kind of detail at some point.   At some point during active duty- You're on current POTUS at White House, current POTUS advance team, current POTUS travel team, former POTUS at residence, former POTUS advance team, former POTUS travel team and then rinse and repeat for all VP's.  Plus a detail on a family member of current POTUS if they live elsewhere.  Plus another rotation for campaign duty which is even more rigorous and last minute due to nature of campaigning/re-election for both incumbents and major party nominees.  All different animals and I thought they all had to get experience in each.  

But knowing Trump, he pulled some shit and got the 8 most loyal guys and kept them at Mar-a-Lago to help with crimes 'n shit.

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6 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I'm fully aware.

I just think it's highly unlikely, given what we know so far, that this indictment is for anything other than falsifying documents in the first degree.  If they had a bank or insurance fraud case against him it would have leaked.

We shall see, procedural question for you.  I'm not clear if the indictment will be unsealed tomorrow.  I know the media has petitioned for it, but that doesn't mean anything.  What's the norm?

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4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

We shall see, procedural question for you.  I'm not clear if the indictment will be unsealed tomorrow.  I know the media has petitioned for it, but that doesn't mean anything.  What's the norm?

I don't know what NY's particular procedures are, but it's pretty hard to have an arraignment without unsealing the indictment, because the charges are usually read verbatim from it to the defendant.

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3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

the sandlot GIF

I'm willing to bet that it's 34 falsified documents they have, each a separate count of falsifying business records.

Thirty-four counts does not usually lead to 34 sentences, and even if it did, they would in all likelihood run concurrently.

It does, however, give the prosecution 34 separate chances to obtain a conviction.

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4 hours ago, Red Five said:

Anyone else old enough to remember Gary Hart getting caught in an affair? He was launched into the sun and never heard from again. Trump actually fucking a porn star isn't/wasn't even a scandal. He could have talked openly about it in October of 2016 and still won the election. 

He married an Eastern European call girl

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4 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

You'd think that cameras in the trial would be the easiest way to expose The Deep State.

No cameras so that Trump can bitch about being treated unfairly.  It’s the main reason to oppose the gag order too.  Judge should have live broadcast for CYA just like the judge in that parade killer who went pro se.

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On Judge Merchan.

He was assigned randomly to oversee the grand jury in this case, and thus was assigned to the case when they handed down the indictment. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/03/trump-manhattan-judge-new-york-00090181

It has nothing to do with his presiding over the Trump Org tax fraud case.

Trump will have no valid grounds for recusal, but this does seem eerily coincidental, so the chief judge may reassign.

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Alright, selling Trump Arraignment Bingo for tomorrow, or pay my TAB.  90% of the proceeds go to me personally for no reason other than it shows your patriotism.  

But seriously-predictions for crazy shit that happens both inside AND outside the courtroom tomorrow in Lower Manhattan.   Our lines are open.  

Upper middle square---Roger Stone shows up shirtless, Trump talks over the Judge, or Eric starts crying out of confusion.

We are also doing over/under on arrests within a 1-mile radius of the courthouse.  This one I'm not sure about though, as the lines have been muddied after Clay & Buck predicted that all the violence there tomorrow will be committed by false flag ANTIFA.  

Finally point spread on how many times Trump accidentally says, "Fifth Amendment/Previous Answer" to a charge reading when he should be saying "Not Guilty"?  Money line says -$150 on at least 5 out of 34.  

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