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Posted
11 hours ago, Tex Long said:

With all due respect for our HC - and he deserves plenty of it - I join you in admitting that in those circumstances I also was thinking - hell, shouting - "First and goal, Sark! First and goal means First and Manning..." 

I don't believe there would have been any controversy about using Arch to add " or Keep " to the "RPO" call and taking away one or even two defenders from that short-yardage D.

Well... not if it worked the way it worked when he actually did it.

I guess we'll see. Can't wait.

His playcalling late in season with Arch was atrociously bad

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Posted
His playcalling late in season with Arch was atrociously bad

He should be been questioned over that nonsense. It’s like he was trotting him out for some token plays to shut up the fan base.
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Posted
13 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

His playcalling late in season with Arch was atrociously bad

I think it was more the lack of Arch. He got huge 1st downs in the OSU and Georgia games. Clemson is throw away. 2 carries for 13 yards with 0 attempts seemed a touch light. Understanding Arch may have had a concussion vs OSU, but I would have liked to see him more in the RZ

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Posted
On 7/9/2025 at 10:30 AM, Codaxx said:
On 7/8/2025 at 8:57 PM, BurntOrange&White said:

His playcalling late in season with Arch was atrociously bad

I think it was more the lack of Arch. He got huge 1st downs in the OSU and Georgia games. Clemson is throw away. 2 carries for 13 yards with 0 attempts seemed a touch light. Understanding Arch may have had a concussion vs OSU, but I would have liked to see him more in the RZ

He didn't get to pass nearly enough, especially in the RZ, which was infuriating. That shouldn't be an issue this season. Good times ahead, with some occasional WTF moments of growth induced heartburn I imagine.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, sith_horn said:

Good times ahead, with some occasional WTF moments of growth induced heartburn I imagine.

Yeah, Arch will likely be great with some "WTF moments" mixed in during 2025 due to his inexperience and/or OL/RB/WR mistakes...  

 

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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Posted
23 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, Arch will likely be great with some "WTF moments" mixed in during 2025 due to his inexperience and/or OL/RB/WR mistakes...  

 

 

True. He might throw an incompletion at some point. 

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Posted

Didn't see this posted. Texas Monthly article on Arch.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/arts-entertainment/arch-manning-ut-football-quarterback/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=webcta&utm_campaign=tm-free&gift_code=OTUxNjE0Ozg4OTMyZDY5LWVlNTgtNGVkYi04ZDI0LTE1MmJhYjg5MjBiMDsyMDI1MDgwNg==

The Unbearable Weight of Being Arch Manning

Pundits are touting him for the Heisman. UT fans are expecting the world. What do those other famous quarterbacks in Arch’s family make of the hullabaloo? Funny you should ask.

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Posted

It’s out of control and he’s definitely going to struggle. He gets that the last name has created a lot of this. He’s as prepared as he can be for that aspect. People are going to crush him when he doesn’t play well. He saw it first hand with Quinn, he will get it worse.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Revolution512 said:

It’s out of control and he’s definitely going to struggle. He gets that the last name has created a lot of this. He’s as prepared as he can be for that aspect. People are going to crush him when he doesn’t play well. He saw it first hand with Quinn, he will get it worse.

If you read the article, it sounds like he knows it's coming and knows how to handle it. He lived through it from seeing how his uncles were treated. He's got a great family foundation to keep him grounded and supported.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Revolution512 said:

It’s out of control and he’s definitely going to struggle. He gets that the last name has created a lot of this. He’s as prepared as he can be for that aspect. People are going to crush him when he doesn’t play well. He saw it first hand with Quinn, he will get it worse.

By all accounts, Arch doesn't do social media. And he has the respect of his teammates who will have his back. I doubt the overblown public criticism, when it comes, will affect him much.

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Posted
2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

Didn't see this posted. Texas Monthly article on Arch.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/arts-entertainment/arch-manning-ut-football-quarterback/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=webcta&utm_campaign=tm-free&gift_code=OTUxNjE0Ozg4OTMyZDY5LWVlNTgtNGVkYi04ZDI0LTE1MmJhYjg5MjBiMDsyMDI1MDgwNg==

The Unbearable Weight of Being Arch Manning

Pundits are touting him for the Heisman. UT fans are expecting the world. What do those other famous quarterbacks in Arch’s family make of the hullabaloo? Funny you should ask.

This is something that Goebbels would be proud of.   I read about the hype.  I don't feel the hype.  I see a talented kid with a a great opportunity.   I am excited to see what Sark can do with him leading the team.   I am not setting expectations before I see this team roll out there for a couple of games.   

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Posted
2 hours ago, crash_davis said:

If you read the article, it sounds like he knows it's coming and knows how to handle it. He lived through it from seeing how his uncles were treated. He's got a great family foundation to keep him grounded and supported.

Yep, he has the whole Manning apparatus to fall back on when he needs help.  I love this kid because he has the right support system. Just call up Uncle Eli or Uncle Peyton when you need advice. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

By all accounts, Arch doesn't do social media. And he has the respect of his teammates who will have his back. I doubt the overblown public criticism, when it comes, will affect him much.

Not only that he's got directly family that played QB in the NFL fairly recently, where hating on a QB is absolutely worse than any college including Texas. That's a support system that almost no QB has ever had prior. Add that to a logical, methodic process which was clearly strongly supported by his family and it puts Arch in a fantastic place. Sark, his team, his friends outside the team, family and access to any mental health assistance he could possibly want is frankly a dream for a college QB. Arch is 100% aware, as are his family of the certainty, not possibility, but guaranteed slams in the media and select fans the first time he falters or takes even a minor mistake. Being mentally aware and prepared in advance by family who know exactly what it will feel like is an advantage that many of us can't even fully understand. How many people have a family member in a public position that can prep them for success and the aftermath of failure in their chosen fields. That did the exact same job. A few coaches and politicians is all I can come up with that have experienced that reality.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yep, he has the whole Manning apparatus to fall back on when he needs help.  I love this kid because he has the right support system. Just call up Uncle Eli or Uncle Peyton when you need advice. 

I believe Cooper, Arch's Mom, and Grandpa Archie are extremely valuable for advice and support for Arch too.  

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Posted
9 hours ago, Revolution512 said:

It’s out of control and he’s definitely going to struggle. He gets that the last name has created a lot of this. He’s as prepared as he can be for that aspect. People are going to crush him when he doesn’t play well. He saw it first hand with Quinn, he will get it worse.

How the fuck would you know that he's definitely going to struggle?

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Posted
10 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, I for one am extremely worried, because Arch Manning is the first national recruit to ever be hyped.

He's also making more money than most of the potential haters be they media or fans ever will. Finally, there is more than a snowballs chance in hell he plays lights fucking out and lives up to all the hype.

I think Arch is gonna be okay.

Posted

The great thing is Arch will just have to run the offense, not play hero ball. The players around him and Sarks scheme are good for 21-28 points, especially if he can figure out he needs to start running pistol or under center in the red zone. Quick hitter power run plays and PA instead of calling cute plays that work when there’s 60 yards depth to defend not 16. 

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Posted
20 hours ago, crash_davis said:

Cooper’s illness affected Arch’s choice of college. In the spring of 2022 he was in the process of making his decision about where to go. Though he had considered many schools, he’d narrowed the choice to three, each of which he had visited four times: Alabama, Georgia, and Texas. Two of the three were dominant SEC teams at the height of their powers. Alabama had won the national championship in the 2020 season; Georgia had won it in 2021. Either school would have been an easy choice for the nation’s top high school quarterback and a logical gateway to the NFL. Both desperately wanted him.

Texas, on the other hand, looked like a program that was in a long-term decline. The 2021 season had been a minor disaster. Under the team’s new coach, Steve Sarkisian—who was fired by the University of Southern California in 2015 for incidents related to his alcohol abuse and later rebuilt his career as an offensive coordinator at Alabama under Nick Saban—the Longhorns had gone 5–7. To weary fans, it seemed impossible that with its heritage, facilities, money, and location, the University of Texas couldn’t do better than that.

Arch saw things differently than most recruits, in large part because his father and grandfather saw things differently. “Cooper had him in a very good frame of mind,” said Archie, “which was let’s find a school that you want to go to if something happens and you don’t play football.”

A clear point of reference was Cooper’s own devastating experience. “Go to a place where you will be happy,” Cooper said he told his son, “to a place where if you didn’t play a down, you would still enjoy your college experience. Have a little bit of balance. Have friends who aren’t just on the team, friends who are in fraternities and clubs.” For Arch that place was clearly Austin.

His instincts were right in other ways, too, starting with the team’s prospects.

“People forget that he committed to a 5–7 team,” said Cooper. “I said at the time, ‘Arch, this is a ballsy move.’ But he wanted to be part of something that was changing, growing, gaining steam and momentum.” Somehow the kid felt the momentum shifting. Since his arrival the team’s record is 25–5.

His gut also led him to pick the right coaches. “You had a pretty good sense that whoever was recruiting you, especially from the offensive coordinators side, probably wasn’t going to be there by the time you arrived, and that certainly is the case,” said Cooper. “All the offensive coordinators that recruited Arch are gone.” But at UT, Sarkisian and quarterbacks coach A. J. Milwee, who played a large role in Arch’s recruitment, are still there.

We tend to attract celebrity kids who think outside of the norm.  Chris Simms decided on Texas over Tennessee, a top five program.  There was a rumor that if Chris had stuck with Tennessee Eli would’ve committed here.  
 

John McClain (I know total dipshit)mentioned that Cooper and Peyton would’ve committed here if Cooper was able to continue playing 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Book marking this tweet (it’s an Instagram post) (this guy has the AIDS)

 

image.thumb.png.149a7c2f05df020a1b2f47939c2bd998.png

Was he oxygen deprived as an infant?  This is barely English

Posted
11 hours ago, MotownHorn said:

How the fuck would you know that he's definitely going to struggle?

The odds suggest he will. It isn't a certainty, but it is more likely than not. 

I like playing around with ChatGPT. For all of its faults, it does have an enormous amount of data on things like this. Here is what it says:

Statistical Breakdown

1. First-Year Starting QBs Tend to Hurt Team Performance

  • On average, teams with a brand-new starting quarterback see their winning percentage drop by about 3.4%, while also underperforming point-spread expectations (covering just 49%) The Score.

2. Adding Four or More New Offensive Starters Compounds the Issue

  • Teams with a new QB and up to four new offensive starters have historically struggled badly:

    • Only 20 out of 82 such teams saw improvement.

    • The average decline was 22% in winning percentage, coupled with a 4% drop in ATS (Against The Spread).

    • Their combined ATS was just 44.7%, significantly below average The Score.

3. Contrast: Teams with Continuity

  • Teams with a returning starting quarterback and at least nine other offensive returning starters tend to improve by about 8% in winning percentage, with better ATS performance (~52.6%) The Score.

  • Likewise, stable setups — returning QB, same OC, and most offensive starters — yield even stronger benefits The Score.

 

Why the Combination of Inexperience & Disruption Is Risky

  • Offensive line experience is a key predictor of success, particularly in pass protection:

    • One study showed that offensive line experience explained 5–10% of the variation in yards per carry Mgoblog.

    • Experienced, cohesive lines also significantly reduce sack rates, giving the QB more time and increasing offensive efficiency Mgoblog.

  • In real-game examples, newly assembled lines with poor cohesion often struggle with fundamentals:

    • South Carolina’s line with three new starters and a center in a new position managed just 5.2 yards per play, and had under 30% rushing success – a clear sign of line dysfunction affecting the entire offense On3.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

The odds suggest he will. It isn't a certainty, but it is more likely than not. 

I like playing around with ChatGPT. For all of its faults, it does have an enormous amount of data on things like this. Here is what it says:

Statistical Breakdown

1. First-Year Starting QBs Tend to Hurt Team Performance

  • On average, teams with a brand-new starting quarterback see their winning percentage drop by about 3.4%, while also underperforming point-spread expectations (covering just 49%) The Score.

2. Adding Four or More New Offensive Starters Compounds the Issue

  • Teams with a new QB and up to four new offensive starters have historically struggled badly:

    • Only 20 out of 82 such teams saw improvement.

    • The average decline was 22% in winning percentage, coupled with a 4% drop in ATS (Against The Spread).

    • Their combined ATS was just 44.7%, significantly below average The Score.

3. Contrast: Teams with Continuity

  • Teams with a returning starting quarterback and at least nine other offensive returning starters tend to improve by about 8% in winning percentage, with better ATS performance (~52.6%) The Score.

  • Likewise, stable setups — returning QB, same OC, and most offensive starters — yield even stronger benefits The Score.

 

Why the Combination of Inexperience & Disruption Is Risky

  • Offensive line experience is a key predictor of success, particularly in pass protection:

    • One study showed that offensive line experience explained 5–10% of the variation in yards per carry Mgoblog.

    • Experienced, cohesive lines also significantly reduce sack rates, giving the QB more time and increasing offensive efficiency Mgoblog.

  • In real-game examples, newly assembled lines with poor cohesion often struggle with fundamentals:

    • South Carolina’s line with three new starters and a center in a new position managed just 5.2 yards per play, and had under 30% rushing success – a clear sign of line dysfunction affecting the entire offense On3.

The Score links it gives don’t work fwiw

Posted
12 hours ago, MotownHorn said:

How the fuck would you know that he's definitely going to struggle?

There's been a lot of that going around this offseason. "He won't be perfect! And when he throws his first incompletion everyone is going to shit all over him!".

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

The odds suggest he will. It isn't a certainty, but it is more likely than not. 

I like playing around with ChatGPT. For all of its faults, it does have an enormous amount of data on things like this. Here is what it says:

 

That's all very interesting, but I think you're using the wrong sample. Arch isn't just any first year QB on just any team. Maybe change your prompt to include Arch's recruiting rating, 2 years of experience as a backup, having a likely top 10 defense, a team that made the playoffs/conference championship game the previous year, etc.

I expect him to have a bad game or two at some point. Everyone does. But the chances that he'll struggle bigtime are low imo.

I expect his floor to be 23 Quinn and his ceiling to be higher than 24 Quinn

Edited by MotownHorn
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Posted (edited)

He can have a bad game and we still contend for a championship. I was not and am not a QE hater but he had bad games and Texas made the semis. Arch is likely to have an even better defense to support him. All he really needs to win it all is a smidge more luck than QE (let’s just say less TOs at the QB and RB position / or hell no brain lapses on screens by the D before halftime) and he’s in the NC game. 

Edited by troph
Less RB fumbles not WR
Posted

I'm pretty excited to see what an over-hyped 3-star posing as a 5-star can do with this offense as a full-time starter this year. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, troph said:

He can have a bad game and we still contend for a championship. I was not and am not a QE hater but he had bad games and Texas made the semis. Arch is likely to have an even better defense to support him. All he really needs to win it all is a smidge more luck than QE (let’s just say less TOs at the QB and WR position / or hell no brain lapses on screens by the D before halftime) and he’s in the NC game. 

Seriously. Ohio State just won it with Will Howard at the helm. Howard had a shit game against PSU and they still won.  His first pass was returned for a TD and had a fumble in the end zone

And he had that massive brain fart against Oregon 

No QB is going to have a perfect 16 game season.  Arch doesn't have to be perfect.  Like you said, if he's even a smidge better than Ewers in the turnover department / clutch plays (with his legs), we are going to be just fucking fine. 

And obviously we have a better run game with healthy RBs and the defense looks like it will be even better. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted

I'm not trying to throw shots at Quinn but my god we spent way too much time talking about NFL draft prospects, "will he declare after this season", "will he come back", etc on a guy who ended up being a 7th round pick. I'm doing my best but man the 2026 draft Arch Manning talk is fucking insufferable and I keep getting push notifications about it. 

Posted

Texas made the final 4 two years in a row with Q shitting the bed on many occasions. Didnt he average 2 self sacks a game or some shit?

Arch will fuck up because he's human. Will he commit the same fuck ups over and over again? No I dont think so. 

 

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