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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Motherfucker can't even use the word "lie" properly.

I don’t rely on guys who look like diabetic orange raccoons when I’m looking for advice either.

Edited by Judge Roybeanbag
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Posted
15 hours ago, G650 said:

Being in the construction business as well, I feel like a unicorn sometimes, but it does seem to be changing a bit.

 

Hope you don't get too down about your brother. Bike rides always help

Yeah. I am pretty down about it. Bike ride did help today. 

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Posted
12 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Me too, but we also haven’t done our annual Labor Day trip to Port A yet.  

Damn. I was thinking about going to Gorda, but it will be packed and hot and the sand will be powder.

Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-harris-election-08-24-24#h_67934a06e85b90565772498194d350c1

 

 

Former President Donald Trump’s campaign is bracing for more unfavorable polling news in the days to come.

A memo from Trump pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis sent out by the Trump campaign Saturday predicts a convention bump in polls after the Democratic National Convention for Vice President Kamala Harris. 

“Post-DNC we will likely see another small (albeit temporary) bounce for Harris in the public polls. Post-Convention bounces are a phenomenon that happens after most party conventions,” the memo says. “So don’t be surprised to see Harris get a temporary 2 to 3 point bump,” it added.

In July, Fabrizio wrote he expected a “honeymoon” period for Harris after she replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket – a prediction that has certainly come to pass. Before ending his re-election campaign, Biden’s support in CNN Poll of Polls registered at 45%, behind Trump at 49%. Heading into the convention, the race had shifted, with Harris at 50% and Trump at 48%, the CNN Poll of Polls found. 

Fabrizio now anticipates the honeymoon for Harris extending, blaming it largely on favorable media coverage of the vice president. 

 

If Harris actually gets a 3-point bump from the convention, this is over. Trump has zero comeback strategy to claw back enough support from a gap that big. Harris would have to have a Biden-like debate performance which is not going to happen. 

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Posted
12 hours ago, immamac said:

Put the cloud in a closet.

???

Profit. 

Haha seriously though I am raising for a startup if you and g650 want to hear more I'll do that not in a thread. 

Is it a BBQ trailer?

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Posted
13 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

If Harris actually gets a 3-point bump from the convention, this is over. Trump has zero comeback strategy to claw back enough support from a gap that big. Harris would have to have a Biden-like debate performance which is not going to happen. 

Also Fabrizio originally predicted the Harris honeymoon would only last a week or two after Biden stepped down. Going on 5 weeks now 

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Posted
9 hours ago, Mo Horn said:

Just saw the first Trump ad on TV here in KC area. It's a national broadcast of a football game so probably not just for Missouri. I doubt the gop spends much money here. 

I saw multiple Trump/Republican spots during the FSU/GT game; I didn't see a single Harris/Dem ad. 

Posted
21 hours ago, Chips O'Toole said:

Taxing unrealized capital gains sounds really bad which is why they chose it to be their big policy talking point this week.  It didn't sound quite right to me, so I looked into it a bit. I'm not that savvy when it comes to this shit, but my take is anyone freaking out about it is either exponentially more wealthy than the people deciding this election or has been told to freak out about it and doesn't understand shit about fuck. 

Not only is there a massive cutoff for assets, it sounds like there is a liquidity requirement, possibly 80%, meaning that the unrealized gains are being borrowed against to effectively gain liquid capital while avoiding the steep capital gains taxes.  This sounds like one of these band-aid attempts to patch a loophole that would be a pain in the ass for the corporate accountants for a year or so until they find a new weakness in the tax code to exploit. 

I agree with the concept of taxing loans on unrealized capital gains, but this idea is probably ineffective and a nonstarter on Congress. It's also not new, and Kamala hasn't to put anything out specifically in support of it. But it's absolutely a nada-burger for the any of the people complaining about it on Facebook or wherever. 

Sounds like it’s targeted squarely at DJT and his inflated assets to get more loans empire. 

Posted
17 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

I'm old enough to remember when Team GOP raised hell about Michelle Obama wanting to make school lunches healthier.

 

 

 

16 hours ago, HenryJames said:

This is going to be some weirdo seed oils and soy shit or something.

Alex Jones can get behind this 

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Posted
11 hours ago, Slacks said:

Damn. I was thinking about going to Gorda, but it will be packed and hot and the sand will be powder.

You can make it.   Brown Cedar cut opened up about 15 miles down, with the last storm.   It’s still about 4’ deep and you can’t drive to Mitchell’s Cut anymore.  

Posted
3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

That’s not a terrible take and the tweet about it is misleading. Tariffs can bring manufacturing jobs back to the US if done correctly, and if those jobs are high quality they can lead to the creation of industry adjacent jobs; the net effect in economic growth can offset increase in cost of goods.

Also there is a hidden cost of cheap overseas labor that one can argue should be offset by a tariff to discourage human rights abuses, to which he alludes, as well as curb environmental damage. 
 

Do I trust the orange shitgibbon to use tariffs in a well considered, thoughtful manner? Of course not. Last time he fucked up manufacturing when suddenly there was no cheap steel to be imported and no domestic supply that could be quickly ramped up to address the shortage, and he had to bail out farmers who suddenly faced retaliatory tariffs on their exports 

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Posted
15 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

As mentioned previously, the infringers' liability is so clear cut, the only thing to argue about is damages.  It will settle promptly for a sizable sum.

Lol.  The dude try to overthrow the govt nearly 4 years ago and ain't shit happened yet.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

That’s not a terrible take and the tweet about it is misleading. Tariffs can bring manufacturing jobs back to the US if done correctly, and if those jobs are high quality they can lead to the creation of industry adjacent jobs; the net effect in economic growth can offset increase in cost of goods.

Also there is a hidden cost of cheap overseas labor that one can argue should be offset by a tariff to discourage human rights abuses, to which he alludes, as well as curb environmental damage. 
 

Do I trust the orange shitgibbon to use tariffs in a well considered, thoughtful manner? Of course not. Last time he fucked up manufacturing when suddenly there was no cheap steel to be imported and no domestic supply that could be quickly ramped up to address the shortage, and he had to bail out farmers who suddenly faced retaliatory tariffs on their exports 

steve-buscemi-reservoir-dogs.gif

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Posted

Also the eyeliner freaks me the fuck out.  Is no one going to ask him about it? Is it tattooed on? 
 

To each their own, but in light of his party’s stance on gender it’s a valid question 

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

bring manufacturing jobs back to the US

By the time that happens it would be the 2030s. The immediate result will definitely be higher prices for consumers.

42 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Also the eyeliner freaks me the fuck out.  Is no one going to ask him about it? Is it tattooed on? 
 

To each their own, but in light of his party’s stance on gender it’s a valid question 

It only looks like eyeliner but I think it's just an unfortunate bundling of fat that results in dark shadows around the eyes. Thats why all the cabbage patch memes.

Posted
1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

RE: Pennsylvania 

 

This got some confusion - the clarification was 84% turnout, which matches 2020, not 84% of 2020. It could have been read two ways 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ummmm okay

Just say you want Trump for the ratings or to write a book. It’s exhausting

That’s fine, but he did set booker up pretty well and let him go for several minutes. And Corey did a great job. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This got some confusion - the clarification was 84% turnout, which matches 2020, not 84% of 2020. It could have been read two ways 

What does the tweet mean to begin with?

Are mail-in ballots already going out/being sent back?  If not, isn’t this just a prediction, worth no more than a poll?  Akin to saying “well Travis County grew from 1.30M to 1.35M from 2020-2024, and it went 72-27 D in 2020, so good news for Ds!”

I feel like I’m missing something obvious.

Posted
Just now, Welch said:

What does the tweet mean to begin with?

Are mail-in ballots already going out/being sent back?  If not, isn’t this just a prediction, worth no more than a poll?  Akin to saying “well Travis County grew from 1.30M to 1.35M from 2020-2024, and it went 72-27 D in 2020, so good news for Ds!”

I feel like I’m missing something obvious.

It’s based on requests. If requested, it’s going to be mailed out. It obviously has to be returned 

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Posted
Just now, Welch said:

What does the tweet mean to begin with?

Are mail-in ballots already going out/being sent back?  If not, isn’t this just a prediction, worth no more than a poll?  Akin to saying “well Travis County grew from 1.30M to 1.35M from 2020-2024, and it went 72-27 D in 2020, so good news for Ds!”

I feel like I’m missing something obvious.

I think they're trying to say that a strong Biden county (319k votes in 2020) in a crucial state appears poised to be a strong Harris county in 2024.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ummmm okay

Just say you want Trump for the ratings or to write a book. It’s exhausting

It’s a fair question. It’s extraordinary that the GQP has allowed the sitting vice president to frame herself as the candidate of change.  It’s extraordinary that the sitting vice president would even try to frame herself that way.

And yeah—Booker handled it really well. So what’s the problem?

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It’s based on requests. If requested, it’s going to be mailed out. It obviously has to be returned 

Thanks.  I didn’t realize that requests were already underway, but that makes sense.

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Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

She’s not being framed as a change candidate but someone who can move us past the maga era. That’s was said expressly in the clips he showed! I swear I just can’t take this dishonest shit anymore from all sides. She’s not saying change from Obama or Biden’s policies you stupid fuck!

This. In addition, a big part of the change is moving past having octogenarian white dudes be our leader.

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Posted
13 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

get out the young vote …

 

Gen Who? Z? Politics? Shhheeeeeit....

They don't care like that. Not yet. If they did, this would already be over by a mile. Wouldn't even be a discussion.

Just like in the 90s when everyone thought Gen X was going to tip Texas forever (I mean, we did get Ann Richards) and just like Millennials were gonna deliver forever after Obama... 

Newsflash, only Olds really give a shit about politics and making everlasting change. Young people are busy being young and living (or trying to live) a great life of fun. It's not until they've put in about 20 years on the hamster wheel that they start to really pay attention. 

I have no stats too back up what I'm saying, but I see Gen Z on a regular basis. They don't even want to register to vote.

But convince them for this one.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

" A third of contributions during convention week came from first-time contributors. About one-fifth of those first-time contributors were young voters and two-thirds were women, groups that the campaign sees as critical constituencies that Harris needs to turn out to win in November."

"The Harris campaign says it has also seen a surge in volunteer support for the vice president. During convention week, supporters signed up for nearly 200,000 volunteer shifts to help the campaign."
 

Edited by Chopper
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Posted
44 minutes ago, Slacks said:

Gen Who? Z? Politics? Shhheeeeeit....

They don't care like that. Not yet. If they did, this would already be over by a mile. Wouldn't even be a discussion.

Just like in the 90s when everyone thought Gen X was going to tip Texas forever (I mean, we did get Ann Richards) and just like Millennials were gonna deliver forever after Obama... 

Newsflash, only Olds really give a shit about politics and making everlasting change. Young people are busy being young and living (or trying to live) a great life of fun. It's not until they've put in about 20 years on the hamster wheel that they start to really pay attention. 

I have no stats too back up what I'm saying, but I see Gen Z on a regular basis. They don't even want to register to vote.

But convince them for this one.

I would say Gen X's political leanings break my heart, but whatever.

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