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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

more than made that up with "people who are finally excited by Trump fully committing to total racism."  It's not even a wash, it's a negative for the rest of us.

They were already in the bag for him. If I'm looking at the polling correctly, the Nikki Haley primary voters will not all come around for him and he needed every bit of that support.

https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling

Only 91% of Trump 2020 voters will be voting for him in 2024 (vs 93% of Biden 2020 voters who support Harris) with 5% of them saying they will be voting Harris (vs. 4% of Biden 2020 voters who will support Trump).

That polling information plus the "look around you" test tells me there's lagging enthusiasm among Trump 2020 voters, which is why they're pushing their chips in on the ridiculous racist bullhorn agitation propaganda. Aurora, then Springfield, and there will be several more until November.

But like the people in the Salon article are saying, the average person regardless of where they sit on the political spectrum is just EXHAUSTED with this shit. They might not agree about who's responsible for it (Trump? MSM? Dems? All of the above?) but only one political party's viability is completely dependent upon the constant culture war bullshit, and we all know which party that is.

I bet if you talk to the 9% who aren't coming back to Trump, a lot of them will sound like the people in the Salon article, and a lot of them voted Haley in the primaries.

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37 minutes ago, Satchel said:

The youngster in my house explained to us what rizz means. It’s a play on the word, charisma - as in, she rizzed me first, Dad.

 

how….did you not know this?

 

 

4 minutes ago, VivaNaranja said:

The easiest thing to pass would be a law adjusting the size of Congress with every census. Its obviously Constitutional - we did it every census until 1930. It was literally the original first amendment so the FF would approve. Just need a majority of both the House and Senate. F a filibuster.

no income tax in wa

Dammit, I always get WA and OR confused. OR=no sales tax, WA=no income tax.

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

Sept2024_Enthusiasm-1024x775.png

Lmao that chart looks like the one maga rolls out regarding 2020 vote calculations

26 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Can someone explain to me what role, if any, the President makes in insurance rates going up or down?

They can ignore the effects of climate change, gut the EPA, and thus indirectly increase risks for home insurance companies so that they no longer can offer affordable rates or have to avoid insuring homes in drastically affected parts of the country like Florida or California.

Oh, wait…

3 minutes ago, royiv said:

Dammit, I always get WA and OR confused. OR=no sales tax, WA=no income tax.

I've been trying to convince the wife to move to Southern WA for years. Shop in Astoria, live in Washington.

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2 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Future school shooter.

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32 minutes ago, royiv said:

3. You have an income tax to offset Texas’s stifling regressive property taxes.

I do?

eta: already covered. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto

47 minutes ago, locodos said:
  1. I'm not going to tell her how to vote 
  2. She knows how the wife and I feel about the top of the ticket 
  3. She's aware that her/women's rights have been attacked 
  4. I told her that she should get a sample ballot and research the smaller races and amendments so she's not overwhelmed / surprised by the 30+ questions on the ballet
  5. She's a smart girl and who she votes for is her business and hers alone

I am VERY confident she'll make good decisions

I'm glad to hear it, which must be a sign of maturity on my part.  When I was younger, I certainly preferred young women that made bad decisions.  

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I do?

I confused OR and WA. Already cleared up earlier. Anyhoo, was agreeing with you that the myth of Texas being a low tax, low cost state is all a facade.

39 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

His user name is satchel.  I don't think I've heard anyone under 80 use that word.  We can't expect him to understand rizz.  

Didn’t know satchel had a shelf life. I’ll try to do better.

5 minutes ago, royiv said:

I confused OR and WA. Already cleared up earlier. Anyhoo, was agreeing with you that the myth of Texas being a low tax, low cost state is all a facade.

I’m sure that after the past 5 years many Texans would prefer a tax tied to their income instead of their property value.   If they could think about it rationally.  Maybe.  
 

sorry, that’s asking for a thread derail I realize. Nip it in the bud. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto

3 minutes ago, Satchel said:

Didn’t know satchel had a shelf life. I’ll try to do better.

I was really hoping you were going to respond with:

"Age is a case of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it don't matter." - Satchel Paige

22 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

how….did you not know this?

 

 

There a quite a few things I don’t know Just learned today was a freak off is.

55 minutes ago, Frank The Tank said:

That is…not a good analogy this week. 

It was in reference to the national championship game where Hurts got pulled at halftime and Tua won it for them in the second half. 

Dems build momentum in Texas 

But several recent polls show Cruz struggling to cross the 50-percent mark, making the Texas Senate race a potential bright spot for Democrats as they battle to hold their slim majority in the upper chamber.

“If you’re Ted Cruz or a Ted Cruz fan, if in the closing months of an election, you’re not at 50 percent and you’re not closing that margin up towards 50 percent, that’s going to be problematic,” Loyd said.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/democrats-build-momentum-texas-senate-100000336.html

3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

It was in reference to the national championship game where Hurts got pulled at halftime and Tua won it for them in the second half. 

Yeah, no shit. I understood the reference. Did you know that after that game, Tua went on to play in the NFL and has had multiple concussions? He is currently unable to play the game and possibly considering retirement due to potential long term issues like brain damage. That’s why I said it wasn’t a good analogy THIS WEEK. 

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

And ice cream for lunch every day in the cafeteria! The fact that none of his voters ever ask for details on his dumbass proposals is just mind numbing. 

And Coke and Dr Pepper in the water fountains!

59 minutes ago, royiv said:

Dammit, I always get WA and OR confused. OR=no sales tax, WA=no income tax.

That’s why people live in Vancouver (WA) and get their groceries across the river in Portland. 

8 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

And Coke and Dr Pepper in the water fountains!

Brawndo imo

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The “This is a tied race!!!” and “Harris is losing momentum!!!” takes are so tedious.

Just today we had two pretty good national polls have her +5 and +6.  And she’s now averaging out to be ahead in each of the seven swing states… and that’s including one state that wasn’t even considered swing earlier this summer, because it was assumed red.

Yet talking heads (including Amy Walter on today’s Tim Miller podcast) keep throwing their hands up and saying “meh, tied.”

I’m fully aware that polls are just a snapshot in time, and I 100% agree that we saw pretty big polling errors in 2016 and 2020.  Not arguing any of that, nor do I think this race is over.

But it’s infuriating to hear these “experts” say this is a tied race.  It simply isn’t.  And if the numbers were all reversed and Trump had a 4-6 point lead in big reputable national polls, not one of those experts would be calling the race tied.

According to numbers from Voto Latino, which targets young Latinos for registration, the group facilitated 36,000 registrations in the six months leading up to July 21. In the weeks since, Voto Latino has registered 120,000 additional voters.

Of those voters, 59 percent are under 30, and 29 percent are in their 30s.

Those age groups, Kumar said, are connecting to Harris’s message not only on new platforms, but through language that’s lost on older demographics.

Just now, Welch said:

But it’s infuriating to hear these “experts” say this is a tied race.  It simply isn’t.  And if the numbers were all reversed and Trump had a 4-6 point lead in big reputable national polls, not one of those experts would be calling the race tied.

From late June to late July, any poll showing Trump ahead was regarded as GOSPEL. Trump up 6 points! Going to win 350+ EVs and pick off NM, MN, VA, CO!!!!! This race is over!!!

I dunno. I moved from tx to wa and my auto insurance went down.  Also my homeowners insurance went down.  Come to think of it my property taxes went down around 50% too.  Electricity- you guessed it also down.  

Especially in the summer.
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4 minutes ago, Welch said:

But it’s infuriating to hear these “experts” say this is a tied race.  It simply isn’t.  And if the numbers were all reversed and Trump had a 4-6 point lead in big reputable national polls, not one of those experts would be calling the race tied.

I’m fine with all of it and I want Democratic voters to feel like their individual vote is the most crucial vote in history

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m fine with all of it and I want Democratic voters to feel like their individual vote is the most crucial vote in history

Counterpoint 1

People tend to quit when they are getting beaten soundly. 
 

Counterpoint 2 

This type of reporting is what feeds January 6 type batshittery

1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Anyone thinking our dumbass electorate will not elect Raphael is an idiot.

Correct.  "Beelzebub Puppykiller Fuck Texas and Fuck all Texans (R)" wins a Texas statewide race by 4% to 6%.

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I dunno. I moved from tx to wa and my auto insurance went down.  Also my homeowners insurance went down.  Come to think of it my property taxes went down around 50% too.  Electricity- you guessed it also down.  

As a recent transplant I can confirm all of this.  Well, except property taxes, because holy shit is property expensive in the Seattle area. 

That’s why people live in Vancouver (WA) and get their groceries across the river in Portland. 
I live in Vancouver. Can confirm. Also better schools, lower crime, and cleaner city.
19 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m fine with all of it and I want Democratic voters to feel like their individual vote is the most crucial vote in history

Yes

12 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Counterpoint 1

People tend to quit when they are getting beaten soundly. 
 

Counterpoint 2 

This type of reporting is what feeds January 6 type batshittery

Also yes

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Nate Silver is no longer with 538. In fact, I am convinced their rosy forecast for Kamala is one of the largest driving factors behind him doing… whatever the fuck he’s doing now.

Silver is clearly using the impact his model has on betting markets for his own betting purposes. 

Just now, wildcat09 said:

Silver is clearly using the impact his model has on betting markets for his own betting purposes. 

And to make his bosses happy. Thiel invested a lot of money into Polymatket

Edited by Js1

Going to share (complimentary free link below) an article by Josh Marshall. It's a small morale boost for those who, me included, are stressed and anxious about the election. I have a csb about the 3 old school pollsters he mentions at the top but no time to tell it right now. 

image.thumb.png.60cfc83d3562f14df68ab466a3708013.png

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/maybe-it-wont-be-that-close/sharetoken/af3d20bf-2efd-4a68-8d36-cd82326f8f29

4 hours ago, David Dennison said:

If Trump wins that will make the third time in the last four Republican victories that the will of the majority has been thwarted.

That doesn't seem tenable.

If you’re referencing the electoral college changing, I could only see change if somehow a couple of large, reddish states suddenly flipped blue. Think Texas and Florida. I know I know but stick with me a second.  At that point, the red states would be such a minority in the House and would never sniff the WH at all. Their only remaining option is using the senate to block everything.

perhaps the Dems could then look to drastically increase the House size, which in turn increases the electoral college size. This would water down the influence of the smaller states in the electoral college.  But then again if Dems added a Texas and/or Florida, why would they want to waste time changing the electoral college?

Again - I think we’ll see a 3% move in one or the other direction at the end of the move that may or may not be visible until Election Day and will represent the consolidated intent of truly undecided and/or unmotivated voters. I think they will move as a herd, and that we’ll know who wins the election by midnight on the East coast, because they will win >300 EVs

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Apparently Harris is a little sick but still going. I wish she’d take a day or 2 off.

She sounded like it 

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18 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Apparently Harris is a little sick but still going. I wish she’d take a day or 2 off.

Fuck that.  No days off.

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The fate of the Republic is in play.  You stop for nothing.

Nothing.

So no viral comments from the NABJ today?

Edited by swraith

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10 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Trump: I don't think I've ever said this before. So we do these rallies. They're massive rallies. Everybody loves, everybody stays till the end. By the way, you know, when she said that, well, your rallies people leave. Honestly, nobody does. And if I saw them leaving, I'd say, and ladies and gentlemen make America great again and I'd get the hell out, ok? Because I don't want people leaving. But I do have to say so I give these long sometimes very complex sentences and paragraphs but they all come together. I do it a lot. I do it with raising cane. That story. I do it with the story on the catapults on the aircraft carriers. I do it with a lot of different stories. When I mentioned Doctor Hannibal Lecter. I'm using that as an example of people that are coming in from Silence of the Lambs. I use it. They say it's terrible. So they say so I'll give this long complex area for instance that I talked about a lot of different territory… You know, for a town hall, there's a lot of people but the fake news likes to say, the fake news likes to say, oh, he was rambling. No, no, that's not rambling. That's genius. When you can connect the dots. Now, now, Sarah, if you couldn't connect the dots, you got a problem. But every dot was connected and many stories were told in that little paragraph

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