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The Wang of Consequences: lubed or not? What becomes of Trump in 2024


Snake Diggity

The wang of consequences? What will happen to Trump in 2024?  

95 members have voted

  1. 1. What will happen to Trump in 2024?

    • Sentenced to prison time, unable to run for president
      0
    • Plea deal(s), unable to run for president
      0
    • Death or serious health problems
      10
    • Plea deal(s), no consequences of note, loses election
      67
    • Exonerated in all cases, loses election
      3
    • Wins election
      15


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Posted (edited)

Fwiw here’s how I’d currently handicap the odds of the poll choices:

Wins election: 39%
Plea deal, loses election: 29%
Exonerated, loses election: 15%
Plea deal, can’t run: 12%
Health problems, can’t run: 5%
Prison, can’t run: 0%

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Legimately curious, the leader by far so far is that he'll plea and lose the election. What on earth makes anyone think he'd agree to any sort of plea? They would require him to admit committing crimes on the record. Also, the possibilities are far more than listed. I think the most likely is that he's convicted of one or more of the crimes he's charged with and either sentenced to no jail, or home confinement, in which he can still run, but will lose a close election. 

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3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i voted that because of this.  nothing of consequence happens, he loses election.  that answer was the closest to what i thought would happen.    

Do you think he'll plea out for no consequences, or win all of his trials for no consequences? I don't see any possibility of a plea or not guilty verdicts in all of his cases. I know we all want to see him rot in a cell like a common criminal, but that's just not feasible for a former president. His consequences will be far lighter than we all want, like house arrest or something like that, but he's not going to get not guilty verdicts or a plea.

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6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Do you think he'll plea out for no consequences, or win all of his trials for no consequences? I don't see any possibility of a plea or not guilty verdicts in all of his cases. I know we all want to see him rot in a cell like a common criminal, but that's just not feasible for a former president. His consequences will be far lighter than we all want, like house arrest or something like that, but he's not going to get not guilty verdicts or a plea.

convicted, punished with a slap on the wrist.

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20 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Legimately curious, the leader by far so far is that he'll plea and lose the election. What on earth makes anyone think he'd agree to any sort of plea? They would require him to admit committing crimes on the record. Also, the possibilities are far more than listed. I think the most likely is that he's convicted of one or more of the crimes he's charged with and either sentenced to no jail, or home confinement, in which he can still run, but will lose a close election. 

Does being on record even matter anymore? MAGA and Trump's reality is whatever he says it is at any given moment - and no pesky little thing like an admission of guilt in a court of law is going to change that. 

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1 minute ago, ultimaton said:

Does being on record even matter anymore? MAGA and Trump's reality is whatever he says it is at any given moment - and no pesky little thing like an admission of guilt in a court of law is going to change that. 

True, it would mean nothing for his fanbase, but there is no way in hell Trump would allocute in the way required to sustain a plea. He would insert all sorts of nonsense like a five year old arguing with his parent. 

"Do you admit that you called the Georgia Secretary of State and asked him to find additional votes?"

"Yeah, because there really were more votes, and I won, so I admit that the election was stolen." 

No court anywhere would accept that nonsense as part of a plea. He's physically incapable of speaking truth without adding nonsense.

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1 minute ago, 'stache said:

True, it would mean nothing for his fanbase, but there is no way in hell Trump would allocute in the way required to sustain a plea. He would insert all sorts of nonsense like a five year old arguing with his parent. 

"Do you admit that you called the Georgia Secretary of State and asked him to find additional votes?"

"Yeah, because there really were more votes, and I won, so I admit that the election was stolen." 

No court anywhere would accept that nonsense as part of a plea. He's physically incapable of speaking truth without adding nonsense.

I initially had a much longer set of choices but figured I needed to pare them down.  I should have changed the wording on the “plea” choices to also include if he’s convicted without jail time.  In my mind there’s not much meaningful difference between him reaching a plea or getting convicted.  It might matter to his followers or others, but in terms of real world impact, the real barometer for me is how it effects his odds of being president again.

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Didn't vote because none of the options are what I think will happen.  My guess is he is convicted in the hush money, convicted in the insurrection case, convicted in the documents case, and the Rico case is just underway prior to the election.  Despite being convicted, and either sentenced or sentenced pending appeal, he still has the nomination and will be the nominee at the convention.  Republicans will secretly want to drop him but won't have a choice and will see the matter thru.  He loses the election in rather spectacular fashion.  Between now and middle 2025 he will have exhausted appeals on at least one case with prison time and will be given a report date.  The Bureau of prisons will arrange this and he will ultimately wind up at an Air Force Base prison (assuming he doesn't die between now and then, which I'd put at 50/50.  He is going to prison, might not be a normal one, but its happening.  

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19 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Didn't vote because none of the options are what I think will happen.  My guess is he is convicted in the hush money, convicted in the insurrection case, convicted in the documents case, and the Rico case is just underway prior to the election.  Despite being convicted, and either sentenced or sentenced pending appeal, he still has the nomination and will be the nominee at the convention.  Republicans will secretly want to drop him but won't have a choice and will see the matter thru.  He loses the election in rather spectacular fashion.  Between now and middle 2025 he will have exhausted appeals on at least one case with prison time and will be given a report date.  The Bureau of prisons will arrange this and he will ultimately wind up at an Air Force Base prison (assuming he doesn't die between now and then, which I'd put at 50/50.  He is going to prison, might not be a normal one, but its happening.  

Once he loses the election his lawyers will pivot to "Our client is suffering from dementia and is unfit to stand trial or serve jail time."

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’m more surprised that so far 23% of respondents think Trump will die or become incapacitated within 8 months.

That was my response, but didn't notice it was limited to 2024. I think he will die, one way or another, after he loses the election, but before any of his convictions become final, most likely sometime in 2025.

Edited by 'stache
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30 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’m more surprised that so far 23% of respondents think Trump will die or become incapacitated within 8 months.

You're witnessing the effects of propoganda, right here. Much like in Russia, if Lobo just keeps repeating the same thing over and over again, people will believe it. 

Not even we, here in the CR, are immune to the constant bombardment of pure propoganda. 

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Honestly, who knows.  This is Trump.  Every one of the choices listed are normal possibilities as in they would be possible for you or I or anyone else. 

 

But again, this is Trump.  These are uncharted waters and behavior not only of him, an entire political party and 1/3 to 1/2 of the electorate.  Those three factors, together, makes nearly anything a possiblity.

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

Legimately curious, the leader by far so far is that he'll plea and lose the election. What on earth makes anyone think he'd agree to any sort of plea? They would require him to admit committing crimes on the record. Also, the possibilities are far more than listed. I think the most likely is that he's convicted of one or more of the crimes he's charged with and either sentenced to no jail, or home confinement, in which he can still run, but will lose a close election. 

He'll agree to some sort of bullshit plea deal in the courtroom, then go into the hallway and immediately contradict whatever he just agreed to, and nothing will ever happen after that.

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1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

He'll agree to some sort of bullshit plea deal in the courtroom, then go into the hallway and immediately contradict whatever he just agreed to, and nothing will ever happen after that.

Which is why none of these prosecutors would ever agree to a plea. It is known that even if he was capable of admitting to stuff in court, he'd immediately dispute it outside the courtroom. It's one of those things that happens when you act like a shithead you're entire life, nobody ever believes you're capable of basic shit, like entering into a plea. 

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1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Once he loses the election his lawyers will pivot to "Our client is suffering from dementia and is unfit to stand trial or serve jail time."

My god this is exactly what will happen 

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The American Democracy is starting to look like Latin American ones in at least one sense:

Political candidates can be a politician, do something illegal or allegedly illegal, go to jail, then come out and win an election. Crime is no longer an instant disqualifier. 

At some point in the future it may be a badge of honor for all I know. Maybe it's like being in the back of the train with only one arm.

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The answer is "nothing I want to happen to him."

I'll believe in actual consequences if/when they ever happen.

My conclusion remains the same: we will not in any way be rid of the disease of Donald Trump until he is dead.  And based on our luck in this timeline, he will live to be 125.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The answer is "nothing I want to happen to him."

I'll believe in actual consequences if/when they ever happen.

My conclusion remains the same: we will not in any way be rid of the disease of Donald Trump until he is dead.  And based on our luck in this timeline, he will live to be 125.

I get that he doesn't (never has) drink or smoke, but his diet is horrendous.

Between him and Warren Buffett who are both notorious for drinking soda and eating McDonald's daily into their 70's and 80's, I'm starting to doubt that food is as bad as I've always thought it was actually.

Edited by BeardIP
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If it were Trump versus any slightly moderate Democrat, Trump would probably lose in a landslide.  

But it's Trump vs Biden.  FUCK ME.    

350 Million people in the US and we have to pick one of these two.

 

 

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Where is the choice...he will be convicted of crimes, become a felon and still  will be elected president because that is how fucking stupid our society has become.

It is going to be a shit show. 

Just pray the markets aren't in free fall come late October. If they are anything is possible. And we will deserve every fucked up part of what comes next. 

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I'm afraid he's going to win.

He significantly outperformed his polling in the general election last time.  And he's leading the polls this time.  I'm afraid that he still has the same silent voting bloc that he had last time, and he's just going to win, without even having to steal it, which I'm sure is Plan B.

I have never wanted to be wrong so badly in my entire life.  I'm going to retire in another country, but I'm not ready to do it next year.

P.S. Fuck Trump and fuck 100% of the idiots and evil bastards who still support him for any reason.

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10 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I'm afraid he's going to win.

Only option for us Ledge people. 

1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

If it were Trump versus any slightly moderate Democrat, Trump would probably lose in a landslide.  

But it's Trump vs Biden.  FUCK ME.    

350 Million people in the US and we have to pick one of these two.

 

 

Look what we made you do?

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1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

If it were Trump versus any slightly moderate Democrat, Trump would probably lose in a landslide.  

But it's Trump vs Biden.  FUCK ME.    

350 Million people in the US and we have to pick one of these two.

 

 

It’s still an obvious choice.  I don’t know what Biden needs to be other than 10 years younger.  Especially with an election that is unique in that both candidates have 4 years on the job to compare with each other. 

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6 hours ago, 'stache said:

Legimately curious, the leader by far so far is that he'll plea and lose the election. What on earth makes anyone think he'd agree to any sort of plea? 

I chose it cause there wasn’t a “guilty, no real consequences, loses election” option. I agree, no way he pleads out but none of the guilty verdicts with teeth will come down before the election. 

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1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

He significantly outperformed his polling in the general election last time.  And he's leading the polls this time.  I'm afraid that he still has the same silent voting bloc that he had last time, and he's just going to win, without even having to steal it, which I'm sure is Plan B.

That was my thought at first but I’m coming around to the differences in election seasons from this time and last.  I’m of the opinion he’ll bleed support every day trials are running.  Politics are all about images.  Pictures of him as a weakling will be his undoing.  

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Jack shit is going to happen to him. The major case will get delayed and delayed.

The economy is going to crash and he is going to get elected President.

He will then pardon himself.

He will have a band of crazies on his cabinet.

It is going to be a complete shit show.

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26 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Jack shit is going to happen to him. The major case will get delayed and delayed.

The economy is going to crash and he is going to get elected President.

He will then pardon himself.

He will have a band of crazies on his cabinet.

It is going to be a complete shit show.

adult swim GIF by Rick and Morty

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30 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

The economy is going to crash and he is going to get elected President.

Got anything to back that up besides your feels?

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