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Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh good.  Kristi Noem is about to speak.  She surely has new, detailed information to offer.

Just put the locals on and stop with this performative grandstanding by state and federal officials.

Where are you seeing this?

Posted
I've had my ranch 20 years. ATT & Verizon are the only carriers that have service there.

All it takes is one lost tower to lose service.

I have used the emergency satellite texts a few times now on ATT when I was out of tower service range. Makes me feel better about those solo trips to wilderness areas.
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Posted

Bettie Cross thinks people just need to get insurance adjusters out there.

Uh, a whole lot of rural folks self insure.  Beyond that, I would be surprised if typical homeowners insurance would cover an event like this.  @C-Man can weigh in there.  Federal flood insurance is insanely expensive now.  I don't think insurance is gonna make much of a dent.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, troph said:

I 100% disagree. That close to the river literally feet away I would be up all night ANY time it rains. You leave your kids with me I go to 11 on vigilance. Sleep overs, car rides, trips, you name it. 
 

I get some of you grieve with sadness, some of us think at least the tragedy with these little girls was at least to some extent avoidable.  
 

if I had those kids I would have been up at 1am - because I’m always up for weather events. The lack of  vigilance pisses me off.

I’m so sad but I’m also pissed beyond belief at adults who were entrusted with these kids.

This. I went through multiple events in Houston. I had weather radar on constantly and was physically checking things around the house every hour. I was lucky and had no flooding during the worst, but I was hyper vigilant. 

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Posted
I don’t know why, but the retainers line got me. The idea that a kid fleeing for her life would think about her responsibilities, probably worried that losing a couple hundred dollars worth of plastic would upset her parents. It’s just… holy shit.

Yep. So many emotions.
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Bettie Cross thinks people just need to get insurance adjusters out there.

Uh, a whole lot of rural folks self insure.  Beyond that, I would be surprised if typical homeowners insurance would cover an event like this.  @C-Man can weigh in there.  Federal flood insurance is insanely expensive now.  I don't think insurance is gonna make much of a dent.

Unless you have a separate flood policy, you're out of luck in situations like this. Depending on where the property is and official flood zone it is in, a lender can require flood insurance is bought. Typical flood policies cover up to $250K for the structure and $100K for contents. They're not designed to help all that much when the home is a total loss because it washes down the river and is smashed to pieces. You can buy supplemental flood, or some policies will cover the whole house, but those are few and far between.

Edited by C-Man
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Posted
2 hours ago, chainsaw said:

In this case a "life threatening" flash flood warning issued at 1:14AM for Kerr County

I didn’t know about this. From what I’m hearing from my daughter the cabins were filling w water at 2 so in that case there was time. Just terrible 

2 hours ago, Texas Fight said:

Are you sure that they didn’t?  Or are you just talking shit.

 

1 hour ago, Texas Fight said:

How do you know each of the camps didn’t have someone “monitoring this 24/7”? 
 

How do you know each of the camps didn’t have a “well established and trained evac plan”?

Some of us know campers and counselors at Mystic, so, yeah

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Posted
3 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Unless you have a separate flood policy, you're out of luck in situations like this. Depending on where the property is, a lender will require flood insurance is bought. Typical flood policies cover up to $250K for the structure and $100K for contents. They're not designed to help all that much when the home is a total loss because it washes down the river and is smashed to pieces. You can buy supplemental flood, or some policies will cover the whole house, but those are few and far between.

when you say "few and far between", do you mean very few people can afford them or do you mean very few companies even offer them so you may not be able to find one even if you can afford one in a high risk areas? 

Posted
Just now, Sawbonz said:

I didn’t know about this. From what I’m hearing from my daughter the cabins were filling w water at 2 so in that case there was time. Just terrible 

 

Some of us know campers and counselors at Mystic, so, yeah

In fairness, the specific "flash flood" warning from 1:14AM didn't use the magic words "Guadalupe River" but it did say "creeks and streams" nor did the warning say anything about how much the river could rise or how fast it would do so. It still could have prompted some vigilance from the leadership of the campsite and when they could hear debris getting louder that should have been enough warning to get to higher ground.

960x0.jpg

 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

when you say "few and far between", do you mean very few people can afford them or do you mean very few companies even offer them so you may not be able to find one even if you can afford one in a high risk areas? 

Not many companies offer flood coverage up to policy limits. It's mainly the HNW carriers such as Chubb, PURE, etc. You can sometimes buy excess flood (like an umbrella) that sits above the standard 250/100 flood policy that the NFIP offers, either thru a HNW carrier or a wholesale/surplus lines avenue.

The thinking was you could have a foot of water on the bottom floor of a home but once the water recedes you can clean shit up, replace flooring and whatever was damaged. In instances like this, or New Orleans in Katrina, the whole home is destroyed. (Hurricanes are probably a bad example because then you get into arguments over whether the primary damage was the force of the wind or the rising water.)

Oh, and flood insurance can be very expensive depending on where it's located in the flood maps. If you're not a primary flood zone, they're pretty cheap $500 or so annually. I won't tell anybody they don't need a flood policy any more. There ain't a place on Earth that can't flood given certain situations.

Edited by C-Man
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Posted
7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

In fairness, the specific "flash flood" warning from 1:14AM didn't use the magic words "Guadalupe River" but it did say "creeks and streams" nor did the warning say anything about how much the river could rise or how fast it would do so. It still could have prompted some vigilance from the leadership of the campsite and when they could hear debris getting louder that should have been enough warning to get to higher ground.

960x0.jpg

 

The Hunt location was a word to the wise. Responsible leadership and effective communication might have saved lives, but we will never know.

Posted
Just now, Willfully Horn said:

The Hunt location was a word to the wise. Responsible leadership and effective communication might have saved lives, but we will never know.

 I agree entirely. The thing is, I also understand that flash flood warnings are so common that most people ignore them or if the warnings aren't ignored people assume "I'm not going to be on the road so I'll be fine" which is true for most people but that logic falls apart if you're responsible for a cabin full of small children sleeping near a riverbed. No matter how you look at it, there are inexcusable failures to abide the Boy Scouts motto.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

 I agree entirely. The thing is, I also understand that flash flood warnings are so common that most people ignore them or if the warnings aren't ignored people assume "I'm not going to be on the road so I'll be fine" which is true for most people but that logic falls apart if you're responsible for a cabin full of small children sleeping near a riverbed. No matter how you look at it, there are inexcusable failures to abide the Boy Scouts motto.

Watched a documentary about the big tornado in Missouri a number of years ago and everyone pretty much said this same thing. That the warnings happen all the time and folks just don’t listen to them. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, King George said:

Here is how close cabins were to dam:

image.thumb.png.f0ff67ebfd3ae1a342226186457d7e09.png

EDIT; OTHER POSTS INDICATE THIS MAY NOT BE CAMP MYSTIC. I RELIED ON GOOGLE EARTH 100% FOR MY POST, AND IT MAY BE IN ERROR. I HAVE NO OTHER FACTUAL INFORMATION TO PROVE OR DISPROVE MY ORIGINAL POST. I WILL KEEP THE ORIGINAL POST AS IS.

These renderings are 100% my opinion from looking at Google Earth, and any comments, markings or observations are mine alone and are not meant to be taken as factual or further relied on for any purpose other than to facilitate this discussion.

A Google Earth screen shot of Camp Mystic. The 2 cabins shown (Light Blue) are closest to the water, presumably the younger girls cabins.  Note the water appears to be Cypress Creek (Orange), which flows into the South Fork of the Guadalupe (Dark Blue) downstream of Camp Mystic. The "dam" is shown in red. I would use that word "dam" loosely, as it is most likely a "non-engineered structure" meant to impound water for purely recreational services and not flood control.

 

image.png.43b0d2d27dde1b82e25e53bbcc6a8611.png

A wider view that shows Cypress Creek & the South Fork of the Guadalupe. The yellow/red lines are dams or earthen berms that have been constructed long the water ways.  The shaded area is a 30 second best guess (not a topographic analysis) on what the Cypress Creek water shed might look like, meaning any rainfall within that polygon would make it down to the shores of Camp Mystic. Be aware that a failure of 1 upstream dam could cause a cascade of failing damns downstream as they are not meant to get hit with a surge in water, but rather a slow filling of the bathtub.

It is also possible that the waters in the Guadalupe River backed up into the South Fork of the Guadalupe River, which backed up into Cypress Creek and raised the water level from the back (downstream) side.
 

image.thumb.png.d1129b1c4900a000ee04dd156d0f147d.png

 

Edited by PTINS
new info
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Posted

Still waiting for this damn presser. 
 

I keep thinking if they can find Katherine Feruzzo (I think it’s how to spell her name) that counselor who is missing that they may find some of the little ones with her. I mean shit I have no idea how far you can get swept down river and still survive but I keep hearing also there is reason to have some hope amidst this unfathomable tragedy. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Watched a documentary about the big tornado in Missouri a number of years ago and everyone pretty much said this same thing. That the warnings happen all the time and folks just don’t listen to them. 

In fairness, most tornado safety precautions won't make a shit against a direct hit EF5 unless you have a very well constructed basement.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Still waiting for this damn presser. 
 

I keep thinking if they can find Katherine Feruzzo (I think it’s how to spell her name) that counselor who is missing that they may find some of the little ones with her. I mean shit I have no idea how far you can get swept down river and still survive but I keep hearing also there is reason to have some hope amidst this unfathomable tragedy. 

I have seen several references to a woman that was found 12 miles downstream, which seems inconceivable to me. That would be an insane amount of time in some dangerous water

Quote

A young woman was dramatically rescued after she was carried 12 miles down the Guadalupe River by raging flood waters, and later pictured clinging to branches of a tree. The woman – who has not been identified publicly – was rescued, News 4 San Antonio reported.

 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

If you're lowlying, beware floods. If you're not lowlying, beware mudslides. When it ain't raining, beware wildfires.

i need to find a place to live where i am not constantly having to beware.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Still waiting for this damn presser. 
 

I keep thinking if they can find Katherine Feruzzo (I think it’s how to spell her name) that counselor who is missing that they may find some of the little ones with her. I mean shit I have no idea how far you can get swept down river and still survive but I keep hearing also there is reason to have some hope amidst this unfathomable tragedy. 

Suspect the bad news is rolling in and they are trying to notify and prepare for such.  Hope not.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, PTINS said:

These renderings are 100% my opinion from looking at Google Earth, and any comments, markings or observations are mine alone and are not meant to be taken as factual or further relied on for any purpose other than to facilitate this discussion.

A Google Earth screen shot of Camp Mystic. The 2 cabins shown (Light Blue) are closest to the water, presumably the younger girls cabins.  Note the water appears to be Cypress Creek (Orange), which flows into the South Fork of the Guadalupe (Dark Blue) downstream of Camp Mystic. The "dam" is shown in red. I would use that word "dam" loosely, as it is most likely a "non-engineered structure" meant to impound water for purely recreational services and not flood control.

 

image.png.43b0d2d27dde1b82e25e53bbcc6a8611.png

A wider view that shows Cypress Creek & the South Fork of the Guadalupe. The yellow/red lines are dams or earthen berms that have been constructed long the water ways.  The shaded area is a 30 second best guess (not a topographic analysis) on what the Cypress Creek water shed might look like, meaning any rainfall within that polygon would make it down to the shores of Camp Mystic. Be aware that a failure of 1 upstream dam could cause a cascade of failing damns downstream as they are not meant to get hit with a surge in water, but rather a slow filling of the bathtub.

It is also possible that the waters in the Guadalupe River backed up into the South Fork of the Guadalupe River, which backed up into Cypress Creek and raised the water level from the back (downstream) side.
 

image.thumb.png.d1129b1c4900a000ee04dd156d0f147d.png

 

 

The cabins in the picture he posted did not flood. They stayed dry. It’s a very misleading post.

Posted

The only reason I am tuning in is to find out how many have been found safe, how many have been sadly recovered and what the count is. And if there is ANY fricking hope to have that we could have a miracle. 
 

I don’t want to hear them expand on shit they have already said, it’s fine Abbott wants to mention the counties he is adding to the declaration but like all we want to know is who has been found or how many damnit. 

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Posted
Just now, Nicole44 said:

The only reason I am tuning in is to find out how many have been found safe, how many have been sadly recovered and what the count is. And if there is ANY fricking hope to have that we could have a miracle. 
 

I don’t want to hear them expand on shit they have already said, it’s fine Abbott wants to mention the counties he is adding to the declaration but like all we want to know is who has been found or how many damnit. 

Thanks for taking one for the team. I can’t watch these assholes without becoming angry. I appreciate you posting the updates.

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Posted
50 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

CBS dude just said Buchanan could be full after this. 

Thanks fucking amazing.

From one storm that wasn't even in the forecast.

Posted
They're going to send in more fixed-wing aircraft along with helicopters to help find victims.
Might have done that yesterday you feckless hacks.
A C-152 flying around with full flaps? An army of 4k drones was the best way to do this. Doesn't matter, story's over. It'll be weeks to months to find the missing bodies now.
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