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Posted
40 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Oh, *MCV is a meso convective vortex - just another name for a type of low that has a strong circulation which is prone to more intense weather (rain amounts in this case).

in other words, the remnants of a tropical depression parked over land and spinning in place

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Posted

Got home late last night.  Waking up this morning getting ready for church.  For the first time something dawned on me that I don’t normally think about 

my iPhone when it hits 10pm and my old ass is going to bed. It goes into do not disturb mode.  It shuts off at 0600 with my alarm.   I know many like this as well

for all the folks mentioning alerts at 1-3am.  How many of yall would have gotten that alert?   
 

I haven’t heard my ringtone in 23 years it’s forever silent buzz 

now at a camp im sure like basic or deployments there would or should have been an on call or overnight “door guard” or someone on standby to monitor alerts.  Or maybe not.  I dunno 

but wondering how effective a cell phone alert in the middle of everyone sleeping would have worked 

 

edit. Just saw cell phone and iPads are banned at camp which is awesome for kids but surely adults had them. 
 

Just thoughts on my walk to church

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Cajun said:

Oh, it's a dent.  From 46.6% to over 63% in 24 hours.  

That said, still a loooooong way from full.  

If conditions go back to “normal” how long does it take to go back to that 46%? 3 years?

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Posted
5 minutes ago, troph said:

Multi county risk as many as a dozen, that’s 5% of the state, known risk, fatality risk, one of the highest in the country. This is a state problem to solve even before you put it in the climate change risk bucket. 

That’s just how low Travis and canyon were. 

There's still 26K cfs coming into Canyon Lk right now.  Only 79 cfs being released from under the dam.  Definitely not done here.

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Posted
Kerrville City Manager:
-- idiots are flying personal drones, cut it out


That entire county is under a TFR. When you violate a TFR you ground all other aircraft in the area (SAR and med flights). Violation of a TFR is a federal crime. Maybe our government could make themselves useful and prosecute these selfish pricks….
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Posted
14 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Kerr County Sheriff:

-- 59 deceased, 21 of which are children

-- 11 Camp Mystic campers unaccounted for, and 1 counselor

This tracks with much of what I have heard from people who have saying it is basically two full cabins of Mystic girls. Some of the camper eyewitness accounts seem to support this. There are no words. None. 😢 💔

Still Hoping and praying for a miracle. A miracle is all that’s left.

Most of you are damned good people. Glad to see all the Surlies in motion. If y’all make the trip tomorrow to Centerpoint to help with the search and rescue/recovery it is sorely needed and found in the How you can help thread. Godspeed. ❤️‍🩹🙏🏼

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Posted
The only thing about the cell phone emergency system is the tendency now for people to shut that off themselves like I have because of the way it’s used for things like Amber or Silver Alerts.  I’m not sure it was a good idea for the Emergency Alert System to be used for this  in retrospect.   There is nothing close to giving a person a heart attack or a step rise in blood pressure than having that alarm go off at four in the morning and find out it was missing persons report at the opposite end of the state.  Please don’t take that as me minimizing that sort of event.
What might be a good alternative moving forward is some sort of  direct alerts that are transmitted directly to the camps and other interest along the rivers facilitated though the emergency management agencies.  Make sure it gets to multiple people in charge of the facilities with the information updated every year before the peak season.  

Southeast texas uses this.

https://www.everbridge.com/?trk=ggls-mnbrand&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_content=evbg_branded&campaign=96612624&gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=96612624&gbraid=0AAAAAD_dm_ydS8QFgmjXuhLAME7QAczwz&gclid=Cj0KCQjwvajDBhCNARIsAEE29Wq3E1bdpqiEbi3jtUebBb-RqRyxZERtITGqJ33jjwY4FbyytcCeHMgaAh55EALw_wcB

Everytime a warning hits I get a text, a phone call, an email.

I also get a slack from my company’s weather alert system. There is almost no way I cannot be alerted when an event occurs, unless I am in a plane without wifi or - and I realize this is common in the hill country - cell service.
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Posted
9 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

in other words, the remnants of a tropical depression parked over land and spinning in place

That's one. The most commonly occurring way is a rotating supercell which can spawn tornadoes or other nasties.

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Posted

On vacation in NM, and last night was the first time I saw actual photos of these babies. I have two young girls and this entire thing has completely ripped me open.  I’m glad they were asleep already when I reopened the thread to the memorials to the known victims at Mystic, bc I cried like a baby in my wife’s arms for a good while  

The pain and suffering wrought from this event will go on for a very very long time. And July 4th has now become a fucking nightmare for so so so many folks, not to mention the extreme ptsd that the survivors will deal with for life. 

My kids have gotten lots and lots of hugs and cuddles the last few days. 
 

 

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Posted
Just now, Herbie Hancock said:

 


That entire county is under a TFR. When you violate a TFR you ground all other aircraft in the area (SAR and med flights). Violation of a TFR is a federal crime. Maybe our government could make themselves useful and prosecute these selfish pricks….

 

This.

Instead of the politicians circle jerking themselves for their great response they can let ppl know this. 

But, they’ve got their signing photo op so this tragedy is only liability now. 
You won’t see any statewide or federal politicians anymore because they know it’s only dead kids.

I take that back.

You’ll see them when they continue to blame local officials and the NWS.

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If conditions go back to “normal” how long does it take to go back to that 46%? 3 years?

If "normal" is defined by the abnormal period since 2021 with jack squat for rain (except a good flood Aug '24) then I'd say it would take between 1-2 yrs.  We're at about 230,000 acre ft right now and 1 yr ago today we were at 212,000.  The red dot I put on today's graph is a pretty good visual of the answer to your question.  Coincidently that dot also represent the exact time that I bought my house here.  This is why I don't do Vegas --->

Image 7-6-25 at 10.35 AM.jpeg

Edited by Cajun
Posted
13 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

This is the movie where they nuke Florida if memory serves

At this point, Texas and Florida are pretty much neck and neck when it comes to "deservin' it."

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Posted
On vacation in NM, and last night was the first time I saw actual photos of these babies. I have two young girls and this entire thing has completely ripped me open.  I’m glad they were asleep already when I reopened the thread to the memorials to the known victims at Mystic, bc I cried like a baby in my wife’s arms for a good while  
The pain and suffering wrought from this event will go on for a very very long time. And July 4th has now become a fucking nightmare for so so so many folks, not to mention the extreme ptsd that the survivors will deal with for life. 
My kids have gotten lots and lots of hugs and cuddles the last few days. 
 
 

I was thinking this yesterday after we heard that the body of our friends’ daughter was found. The Fourth of July will forever be a day of sadness for them. Silly, I guess, but it’s what I was thinking.
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Posted
1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

At this point, Texas and Florida are pretty much neck and neck when it comes to "deservin' it."

If only Tom Arnold Schwarzenegger had access to the wisdom of 2020s thought leaders

Spoiler

91ZVf3kNrcL.jpg

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

At this point, Texas and Florida are pretty much neck and neck when it comes to "deservin' it."

Wow.

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Posted

Not sure what the deal is with that Kerr country sheriff update. Obviously I hope that number is correct, but from friends in contact with Mystic Im being told 4 girls found, 21 still missing. That was last night. 

My down the street neighbors little girl was confirmed missing this morning. We were still holding out hope that her name being mentioned was still a rumor, I havent felt comfortable texting the parents. Our kids have played together a million times. We go to the same Church. It was the last one where I actually convinced myself there could be a chance. My 8 year old still has no idea kids are missing. This one is gonna land hard for my boys. 

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Posted

Some meteorologist this morning put the 26 feet of water in 45 minutes into perspective for me as basically it’s  6 inches of water per minute. All hell is breaking loose outside from a roaring river while water on the inside of your abode is rising half a foot per minute. Most of y’all get all of that, it just helped me to see that in terms of visualizing that. 😢💔

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, C-Man said:


I was thinking this yesterday after we heard that the body of our friends’ daughter was found. The Fourth of July will forever be a day of sadness for them. Silly, I guess, but it’s what I was thinking.

I was thinking that if not for the storm, 4th of July at camp would have been one of the most fun days of their lives.  
 

That this happened at the time of day that happened, it was like a perfect storm (no pun intended). A few hour earlier or a few hours later and they could have evacuation.  Fate can be exceptionally cruel. 

Edited by Lhorn
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Posted
2 minutes ago, BlackCat said:

Not sure what the deal is with that Kerr country sheriff update. Obviously I hope that number is correct, but from friends in contact with Mystic Im being told 4 girls found, 21 still missing. That was last night. 

No idea, but I think he referred to a 9 AM briefing.

Travis County press conference continued:  unconfirmed 11-13 missing

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Posted
22 hours ago, G650 said:

 

 

So, firstly I'm gutted by this tragedy. 

 

But speaking as a lifetime mariner who has depended on NWS broadcasts for literal decades, I would say there are better options these days. I would certainly not tell anyone don't have a NOAA radio, I have multiple ones every time we leave the dock, but look at all the options. 

Well, what do you use?

Posted
2 minutes ago, Ten Bears said:

Well, what do you use?

What is your application? It depends on a few factors like ability to generate power, fixed or portable installation etc...

Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Yes, Linnie is the little girl who was ~ 2YO in my wife's preschool class.  My wife left for another school after that single year with her.

The look in her eyes when I confirmed her death was what I would expect were it one of our own.  Teachers get very very close to their younger kids.  So unbelievably sad.

Her father was the one going through the debris at the camp in the UT shirt. I couldnt finish watching the interview. 

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Posted (edited)

Phone alerts, etc are all fine and good, but they cannot account for spotty service, do not disturb mode, etc. At this point just put a network of sirens all along 34 and 1340 - basically anywhere in the county in a 100-year flood area along the river. Test them regularly and fire them up whenever there’s a warning at the earliest possible moment. That way, no matter what the hour, if I’m camp staff or a counselor I know the moment I hear it to gather up my folks and head to high ground.

Edited by sasquatch69
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Posted
1 minute ago, sasquatch69 said:

Phone alerts, etc are all fine and good, but they cannot account for spotty service, do not disturb mode, etc. At this point just put a network of sirens all along 34 and 1340 - basically anywhere in the county in a 100-year flood area along the river. Test them regularly and fire them up whenever there’s a warning at the earliest possible moment. 

Georgetown has sirens for tornadoes. I wonder if they were used. It hit them at the worst possible time though, as Saturday is usually when they test the sirens, so people may have disregarded it as a test.

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Got home late last night.  Waking up this morning getting ready for church.  For the first time something dawned on me that I don’t normally think about 

my iPhone when it hits 10pm and my old ass is going to bed. It goes into do not disturb mode.  It shuts off at 0600 with my alarm.   I know many like this as well

for all the folks mentioning alerts at 1-3am.  How many of yall would have gotten that alert?   
 

I haven’t heard my ringtone in 23 years it’s forever silent buzz 

now at a camp im sure like basic or deployments there would or should have been an on call or overnight “door guard” or someone on standby to monitor alerts.  Or maybe not.  I dunno 

but wondering how effective a cell phone alert in the middle of everyone sleeping would have worked 

 

edit. Just saw cell phone and iPads are banned at camp which is awesome for kids but surely adults had them. 
 

Just thoughts on my walk to church

If you’re in the care of others, especially when parents have entrusted you to watch over their children, someone should be mindful of current conditions at all times. Especially if there is awareness of potential problems.

An overriding problem is that we’re all human and we all look to trends or patterns. And the pattern is that most flood warnings don’t lead to a catastrophic flood.

I dont have kids, and growing up we weren’t camp-goers. I would have guessed there would be someone awake monitoring what is happening even just helping a camper with an issue in the middle of the night. The more kids on-site, the more people with the night watch, and said watch should be clear when to alert any sleeping camp directors.

im not criticizing any particular camp or their procedures. I work off an assumption they all have procedures to quickly move kids to a safe location whether it’s a flood, fire, intruder, etc. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

If you go look what I left you will see the difference pretty easily. 

I was also talking about if someone wanted to make a new thread for this event in DT they can easily do it.


I did this.

Caught a stray from an asshole who think a thread about donations is the same as talking tragedy. But it’s been done.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:


I did this.

Caught a stray from an asshole who think a thread about donations is the same as talking tragedy. But it’s been done.

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, alexis texas said:

Here is a "timelapse" video of the water elevations in 1 meter increments. The FEMA flood map has the base flood elevation between 1840' ASL near the Hwy 39 river crossing and 1835' ASL near the Mystic dam. As best as I can tell based on the ground elevations and pictures of the water level in some of the cabins, this seems to be more than a 100 year or 500 year flood event. For example, the ground elevation around Wiggle Inn cabin is at least 1860' and the water level was a foot below the door (1865' ASL or higher). That's at least 15ft higher than the 100 year base flood elevation.

Disclaimer: I am not claiming to be a flood expert. These are just my observations based on the info that is currently publicly available (FEMA flood maps, Google Earth, and photos from after the flood.)

Here are a couple additional maps from the FEMA estBFE Viewer which show that this flood was likely closer to a 500 year flood event than a 100 year flood event. Most current building codes require the ground floor of buildings to be at least 1 to 2 feet higher than the 100 year BFE. 

Mystic 100 Year Flood Depths.jpg

Mystic 500 Year Flood Depths.jpg

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Posted

Lindner latest - TLDR

 

7-6-25 845am

Update on the weather and rivers over the Hill Country and central Texas.

No new flash flooding overnight
 
Weather pattern remains in place today into Monday for additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding
 
Persons should continue to be mindful of the weather conditions while visiting, camping, and vacationing in this area through tomorrow.

 
The good news is that thus far there has been no new heavy rainfall and flash flooding, but recent radar trends west of I-35 suggest an increase in activity including pockets of heavy rainfall. Guidance continues to indicate the potential for additional isolated areas of excessive rainfall today, tonight, and into Monday over portions of the Hill Country and central Texas as the slow moving/stalled mid level trough axis/weakness aloft remains over this area combined with tropical moisture.
 
As mentioned before, the where, when, and how much are the key questions in this type of setup and we are at the limit of the science on these answers usually until the storms begin to evolve. Where the heavy rain falls can quickly result in flash flooding on normally dry creeks and rivers…in some cases the water can rise feet in minutes yielding little time for action. Persons in vulnerable locations along dry or low flowing creeks and rivers must keep abreast of water levels and conditions and be prepared to react quickly.
 
Rivers:

Floodwaves have terminated into the various lakes in central Texas (Lakes Travis, Buchannan, and Canyon). These lakes remain well below normal conservation pools due to the long term drought in this area and will be able to fully absorb these flood flows with no downstream impacts or flood gates releases.
 
It should be noted that higher than normal flows are occurring at several points in the Highland Lakes chain and significant debris has been washed into the various lakes in the last 48 hours making boating and recreational use hazardous at times.
 
Rainfall below the control structures yesterday will result in rises on the Colorado River at Bastrop and Smithville today and the Guadelupe River downstream through Victoria this week. Based on current flows and forecasts no flooding is expected, but flows along the river will be elevated and normally dry low land areas will be inundated.
 
Local:

Rain chances will begin to increase over our local area into early this week in association of an upper level low that will approach from the northeast Gulf. This will usher in more favorable conditions for afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze. Heavy rainfall will be possible as is typical in such summer situations with some isolated instances of street flooding through mid week.
 
High pressure will attempt to build into the region later this week and lower rain chances, but how fast this happens is in question and thus far this summer significant high pressure has been unable to gain a strong foothold over the state or region and completely shut off rain chances. Summer patterns are hard to break once they become established given generally weak flow in the atmosphere this time of year.  e

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Posted
2 hours ago, troph said:

Travis up 18, not sure the inflows but I believe dams upstream still open. I bet most of Hamilton, cow and big sandy creeks have pushed their water in already. 

According to KXAN, at least 1 dam above Lake Travis is now closed... can't remember which.

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Posted
Just now, DaysOff said:

Lakes shmakes. I pull my water from the ground. Are the aquifers going to top off?

 

i was curious too, hopefully the edwards got some run off 

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Posted
1 hour ago, alexis texas said:

Here is a "timelapse" video of the water elevations in 1 meter increments. The FEMA flood map has the base flood elevation between 1840' ASL near the Hwy 39 river crossing and 1835' ASL near the Mystic dam. As best as I can tell based on the ground elevations and pictures of the water level in some of the cabins, this seems to be more than a 100 year or 500 year flood event. For example, the ground elevation around Wiggle Inn cabin is at least 1860' and the water level was a foot below the door (1865' ASL or higher). That's at least 15ft higher than the 100 year base flood elevation.

Disclaimer: I am not claiming to be a flood expert. These are just my observations based on the info that is currently publicly available (FEMA flood maps, Google Earth, and photos from after the flood.)

Thank you for your great and informative posts. This was tragic. No other way to frame it. 

I view this as a combination of "An Act of God", not reasonably within the control of an individual, and a series of decisions, that when combined, was catastrophic.

Having read every post in this thread, the legacy of these camps, family ownership for 100 years, the multiple generations of kids that have gone to them, the personal experiences and contacts that so many of you have had over the years, those are the nuggets that make life special. Now, none of us will think about those wonderful times, or July 4th, without thinking of this tragedy, and I am sad for you. You are my people.

My frame of reference as a camper is as BSA Scoutmaster. I was fortunate to have a 2:1 ratio of scouts/dads on our campouts, and a great group of boys who grew into young men, half of which became Eagle Scouts. Good or bad, most of the dads were engineers, geologists and IT guys. Say what you will about the Boy Scouts, but having a plan and being prepared was a given. Though the reasons for having 2 deep leadership was unfortunate, having 2 deep leadership worked.

Working and growing up professionally in a culture of safety is something one appreciates, especially when you see others who don't embrace that ethic.

It makes me angry that the young, and the innocents were the victims, and their friends and families have to carry the burden.

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

One would think that. Around this time last year, I made the permanent move away from Austin, where I’d lived for 28 years, to a rural area. My long-dormant Facebook account has become a lifeline for getting information about what’s happening around town.

There are no local TV stations. We do have a handful of local radio stations BUT they're mostly canned iHeartMedia stations that pipe in shitty country or classic rock with a local person only coming on air in the morning or at noon to talk about the happenings at the dry feed store or that someone's dog got loose. The local newspaper? Fuhgeddaboudit.

Out here, FB really is treated like some combination of Next Door/Reddit/Xitter/eBay all rolled into one with a few groups people have put together to rant and rave about shit or rumor monger. Still, everyone also turns to it for crises. It's not an exaggeration to say that the site plays a critical role in official city and county communications, which is kinda fucked up.

That's why the emergency cellphone system that the state has, or some sort of alarm system, would've been the best way to warn people. Well, that or having one of those NOAA radios out at the camps.

When I go to the ranch, the phone is for my convenience, not for others to contact me. I am not saying this is smart, or reasonable, or respectful to my family, that is just the way it is. I go there to be unplugged. I try to check in every day to let them know I am ok, and I check the weather every day; in the evening, texts, emails, etc. If its is important, I respond, if not, it can wait.

Two big differences. (1)  the house is a higher elevation than the water has ever been. The summer we bought the ranch, our box canyon that drains through my ranch got 35" of rain in 2-3 days (500 year rain event). The house is ~ 10 feet above that level and sits on a shelf 300 ft wide.  (2) I don't have 700 children sleeping on my ranch.

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

In one of the articles that someone posted yesterday, there was a comment that the camp had become like a whirlpool of water. With that creek flowing into the river at the campsite, you can easily see how it could become a raging, swirling torrent right there.

Yes, when I saw the topography of the area, my first thought was the main Guadalupe River backing up and flooding the camps from the downstream side. I can't imagine anything worse than having floodwaters coming from both directions, in the dark and in unfamiliar surroundings.

I had similar trauma in 1970, when I was 13.  I never talked about it til 10 years ago, once, and until last month.

The survivors will be scarred for life. Talk with them. Don't let, or make them carry that inside, alone.

   

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Posted
Lakes shmakes. I pull my water from the ground. Are the aquifers going to top off?
The Edwards and outcrops of the Trinity should see some appreciable recovery from this event. Down dip sections of the Trinity not so much.
Posted
1 hour ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Got home late last night.  Waking up this morning getting ready for church.  For the first time something dawned on me that I don’t normally think about 

my iPhone when it hits 10pm and my old ass is going to bed. It goes into do not disturb mode.  It shuts off at 0600 with my alarm.   I know many like this as well

for all the folks mentioning alerts at 1-3am.  How many of yall would have gotten that alert?   
 

I haven’t heard my ringtone in 23 years it’s forever silent buzz 

now at a camp im sure like basic or deployments there would or should have been an on call or overnight “door guard” or someone on standby to monitor alerts.  Or maybe not.  I dunno 

but wondering how effective a cell phone alert in the middle of everyone sleeping would have worked 

 

edit. Just saw cell phone and iPads are banned at camp which is awesome for kids but surely adults had them. 
 

Just thoughts on my walk to church

Emergency alerts are supposed to override your phone settings, sound included.  If your phone is dead or turned off, then no you wouldn’t get one.  Otherwise you’re supposed to if you have them enabled.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Cajun said:

If "normal" is defined by the abnormal period since 2021 with jack squat for rain (except a good flood Aug '24) then I'd say it would take between 1-2 yrs.  We're at about 230,000 acre ft right now and 1 yr ago today we were at 212,000.  The red dot I put on today's graph is a pretty good visual of the answer to your question.  Coincidently that dot also represent the exact time that I bought my house here.  This is why I don't do Vegas --->

Image 7-6-25 at 10.35 AM.jpeg

I absolutely assume the last 4 years is the new normal. 

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Posted
My son-in-law is a DPS detective and is there working recovery with the entire department from Victoria.  He just texted my daughter (former Mystic camper).  I'm not sure about posting specifics on numbers, but get ready to hear some rough news pretty soon on what they've found this morning.  

Somebody on the other thread posted that they’re hearing they found the missing girls and counselor from the Bubble Inn cabin dead.
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