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Posted

Jeff Lindner-

7-5-25 800pm

Summary of ongoing flooding, Lake levels, and forecast 

Flash flooding continues over portions of the I-35 corridor.
 
While rainfall has weakened early this evening there remains the potential for isolated excessive rainfall again tonight across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor.
 
Ongoing river flooding will NOT impact any portions of southeast Texas.
 
Rivers:
 
South Fork of the San Gabriel River:

The headwaters of the river received 16-20 inches of rainfall overnight generating a catastrophic floodwave that moved downstream through Georgetown today. The river has crested and falling quickly back within banks, but numerous locations along the river have suffered extensive damage including several homes, RV recreational locations, and roadways.
 
Catastrophic flash flooding over southern Burnet, NW Travis, and western Williamson Counties have resulted in at least 6 fatalities overnight and several persons are still missing.
 
San Saba River:

Extremely high flows on the San Saba River into the town of San Saba has resulted in extensive flooding. The river is starting to fall while the downstream floodwave enters the Colorado River and Lake Buchanan. Lake Buchanan will be able to store the incoming flood flows and no releases are expected.
 
Highland Lakes and Lake Travis:

High inflows from the Llano River into Lake LBJ and Marble Falls has resulted in floodgate operation by LCRA to pass flood flows through these lakes and downstream to Lake Travis. Due to inflows from upstream as well as the 10-16 inches of rain that fell near the northeast end of Lake Travis this morning a significant rise of 17ft in the lake pool over the last 24 hours has occurred. However Lake Travis is still well below its conservation pool and will be able to completely store all the incoming run-off without any floodgate operations and releases downstream.
 
Guadelupe River:

Catastrophic flooding along the Guadelupe River from upstream of Hunt TX to downstream of Spring Branch TX has now fully terminated into Canyon Lake. Canyon Lake has risen 7.0ft from the inflows, but the lake remains 26 ft below its normal pool due to the long term drought in this area. As a result all flows will be contained in Canyon Lake and no floodgate operations or releases will be required.
 
Search and rescue operations continue along the Guadelupe River. Damaged infrastructure is making some areas only accessible by aircraft or ATV’s.
 
43 fatalities (28 adults and 15 children)
850 persons rescued
8 injured
The number of missing and unaccounted is fluid and fluctuating.
 
This event is now the deadliest flash flood event along the upper Guadelupe River in modern times. Previously the July 1987 flood which swept a school bus of 43 campers off a low water crossing and resulted in 10 fatalities was the deadliest.  
 
Lower Guadelupe River:

Heavy rains today below Cayon Lake/Dam resulted in a 12-15 ft rise in the river from below the dam to New Braunfels resulting in rapid evacuations of recreational areas in this region. Downstream rises at Gonzales, Cuero, and Victoria are expected this week, but levels are not forecasted to reach significant or damaging levels.
 
Forecast:

Mid level trough axis combined with tropical moisture from the remnants of Barry and Flossie (eastern Pacific) continues to produce isolated but incredibly intense rainfall bombs. LCRA gages last night were recording hourly rainfall rates of 6.0-7.0 inches near Lago Vista TX with 2-3 hours totals of 10-16 inches which rivals some of the most impressive Texas rainfall rates.
 
While rainfall has weakened this evening, tropical moisture and subtle lift will once again prime the Hill Country and I-35 corridor for the potential for excessive rainfall tonight into early Sunday. Guidance is not showing as strong of a signal as the last few nights, but given the trends of the last 48 hours and a similar air mass the potential is still there. As always in these types of situations it is the where, how fast, and which river or creek. Using the more extreme high end solutions has worked best the last few days and this again tonight suggest isolated totals of 10-15 inches will be at least possible.
 
While rainfall has worked deeper into SE TX today, no significant rainfall amounts or flash flooding is expected as our local area is removed from the best lift and on the eastern side of the best moisture feed.

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

This video is also "The Slab" on the Llano River near Kingsland

 

Earlier this week I was talking about going out there on Sunday and then grabbing lunch at Hooper's.  Maybe not 

Edited by texasdago
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Posted
14 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

This story did add some light to why those certain cabins were more affected than others. And then being the youngest of the group just horrible.

That's the little girl my wife taught in preschool.  

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Lhorn said:

I can’t think of many things more heartbreaking than dads wandering through rubble looking for their precious daughters that they know are dead.  

I've teared up several times today thinking about all of this.  It's heartbreaking. 

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Posted

I’m so sorry for your friends.  I recognize her from the pics that have shown up on a lot of news sites.  She’s a cutie.  RIP little one.  I’ve been on the verge of tears all day and this pushed me over the edge. 

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Posted

I was trying to find a centralized list of names for the deceased and those known to be missing to see if I knew anyone. It is peculiar that the information is not published for those who have been identified and their families notified, as it could be valuable, especially for locating the missing in a BOLO way.

This is the most comprehensive I came across:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/article/texas-hill-country-floods-people-still-missing-20552813.php

Posted
4 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I was trying to find a centralized list of names for the deceased and those known to be missing to see if I knew anyone. It is peculiar that the information is not published for those who have been identified and their families notified, as it could be valuable, especially for locating the missing in a BOLO way.

This is the most comprehensive I came across:
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/article/texas-hill-country-floods-people-still-missing-20552813.php

I’ve got a comprehensive Mystic list from moms at the camp. It’s floating around text chains. I don’t know how appropriate it’d be to share?

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Posted
1 minute ago, King George said:

I’ve got a comprehensive Mystic list from moms at the camp. It’s floating around text chains. I don’t know how appropriate it’d be to share?

I'd like something from a more "official" or authoritative source that also includes people who weren't at Camp Mystic.

Posted
1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yeah, agreed.  News outlets is one thing, but private is not.  The off chance it's inaccurate could be horrific.

And his record of posting accurate information is pretty poor.

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Posted
57 minutes ago, bolverk said:

@Dbeasy and anyone else traveling, the link to the TxDOT statewide driving conditions is a great one to keep handy during weather events. I believe DPS and local law enforcement report road closures and hazardous conditions, so it's updated regularly. Zoom in and you'll see exactly where the potential problems are.

https://drivetexas.org/

Thank you sooo much. This is exactly what I had been trying unsuccessfully to find. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, TonyTexas said:

Your hurt feelings are so not important. 

My feelings aren’t hurt. But I despise people like him. 
 

now, my wife’s feelings matter to me. Quite a bit. She works at a private school at Houston, and is in numerous teacher and parent chats. Do you think her feelings matter today? Does anyone’s, in a “news only” thread? Because she’s been a basket case and me calling out a gaping pussy when this thread gets too emotional for him to handle feels…just fine to me. 

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Posted
Just now, Dbeasy said:

Thank you sooo much. This is exactly what I had been trying unsuccessfully to find. 

I like the fact that it was posted two posts above your very helpful post that gave us the confidence to tell our son to drive on to Austin.  He made it safely, and thanks again for your earlier, in-the-moment info at that time.  My wife was pursuing news sights.  I went to Surly.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

So what's going on at Inks?  I'm thinking about the floating cabins at Camp Longhorn.  

Inks can only get so high before the water goes over the top of the dam.  No floodgates.  No storage basin.

Edited by DalTxHornFan
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Posted
37 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Not sure i can come back to this thread again

It might have made sense to separate weather/rain/blame/destruction into one thread and let the victims/families have their own other thread, for a whole bunch of good reasons.

I had a really bad feeling about this early yesterday that kind of dissipated after  digesting all the news and unknown missing persons hopium, but has returned with a vengeance as facts come in.

Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

It might have made sense to separate weather/rain/blame/destruction into one thread and let the victims/families have their own other thread, for a whole bunch of good reasons.

I had a really bad feeling about this early yesterday that kind of dissipated after  digesting all the news and unknown missing persons hopium, but has returned with a vengeance as facts come in.

It’s about time to move the tragedy / news part off the weather geek out thread too.  Edit - I think that’s what you’re saying. I agree.

Edited by troph
Posted
1 minute ago, Planet Houston said:

Sad but true - it’s actually four, not three.

Two of the girls were confirmed deceased in the last couple of hours, and two still missing with little hope. I don’t even know what to do and I feel guilty being so happy that we picked up my kids safe from CLH today. 

Beyond heartbreaking and going to affect so many for generations. 💔

I’m fucking sorry dude. 

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Posted (edited)

Took this last year about as close as you can get to the bouys atthe dam at Inks.   Constant level lake, except for a few small creeks, any water released from Buchanan goes over the dam at Inks.   With the drought, Inks was about a foot low last August.

 

IMG_1602.thumb.jpeg.88e356981c2c8ac34211d8fbe7cb338a.jpeg

 

 

Edited by davidg
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Posted
43 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

So what's going on at Inks?  I'm thinking about the floating cabins at Camp Longhorn.  

Inks is up about 3 feet. Those cabins are always fine. It's not the same when they release from Buchanan as a flash flood on the rivers. 

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Deej said:

Inks is up about 3 feet. Those cabins are always fine. It's not the same when they release from Buchanan as a flash flood on the rivers. 

Well, I mean other than not being able to use the walkway to a floating cabin this morning and having to float shit out.  But yeah, for sure relatively fine, and I mean that as a relieved parent.

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Posted
4 hours ago, tokamak said:

So a couple things I've learned that I didn't know before are that 1) the river valleys in this particular part of Central Texas are among the most flood-prone in the country, and 2) they're full of quite a few kids' summer camps, many (most?) of which have been there for many decades, some up to 100 years.

Those two facts in combination make it seem like the camps should be pretty well versed in flood risks. I'd expect quite a few near miss stories to be among the local lore. "Back in '88, the water came all the way up to the steps of the dining hall"...that type of thing.

Ive been going there my whole life between camps and going back and renting houses with my family. Now my kids are in camp. I think its fair to say anyone thats been going for over a decade has seen multiple flood events, some of which are exactly as you described. Water got THIS HIGH when I was there back in the day, Ive heard that stuff the whole time Ive been there. I can remember at least one summer at camp where it just wouldnt stop raining for days and the water slowly creeped up to the cabins. We just had our stuff on the bunks and the floors in these cabins are typically just concrete slab. Water goes back out, recedes to the river, and you go about your business. 

I certainly can see how someone might start to sort of disregard the warnings about flood severity. You hear that stuff but typically it isnt as bad at your place, so you just get in the bad habit of not taking the warnings seriously. Then all of a sudden you're distracted by the 4th of July and and it gets just a little easier to disregard the warnings, and by the time a flood like this starts to head your way, and you actually spring into action, its too late. This thing just moved too fast.  

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Posted (edited)

Canyon Lake showing that it's up almost 10 feet now since this morning...

Image 7-5-25 at 11.18 PM.jpeg

Edited by Cajun
That's closing in on 60% full vs 46.7% when I woke up today.
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