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Just now, immamac said:

They aren't giving up shit. You are crazy. They are being defeated and repelled, while attacks are picking up in actually Russia to prevent resupply. You are completely wrong. Russia being defeated will not at all be a cause for lifting sanctions, if Russia retreats and signs a deal to pay for all the destruction they did to Ukraine, returns all the Ukrainians they kidnapped and Putin steps down then MAYBE sanctions begin to soften. 

russia retreating and giving back the land they have occupied would be the death of putin, no? i can't see how he could survive that type of defeat on the home front... 

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6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I am not sure that a failure to commit the resources needed to achieve his maximalist goals due to miscalculation is restraint, nor do I think that operational constraints imposed on him are restraint, nor do I think “let’s save this shit so we can steal it later” constitutes restraint. 

I would toss in that air superiority and SEAD would not need to be in any calculations about restraint.  If Putin believed he could conquer Ukraine, gaining air superiority and SEAD does not mean they have to destroy rail lines or power plants.  Air superiority and SEAD were arguably two of the most important things needed for conquering Ukraine and they just completely shit the bed on it.  

I feel like Putin is the schoolyard bully who just got his nose bloodied by a would-be victim, and he’s dazed, and he’s looking around at everybody watching him, and nobody is rushing to help him, except maybe the Libyan kid is trying to cheer him on, and all that’s running through his mind is “what the fuck do I do now?”  Meanwhile the Ukrainian kid is moving in to punch him again.

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Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

russia retreating and giving back the land they have occupied would be the death of putin, no? i can't see how he could survive that type of defeat on the home front... 

Russia isn't retreating they are being defeated. They aren't giving back anything, they are having it forcefully taken away. 

Russians have suffered an incredible amount of loss at a ratio of nearly 9:1 compared to Ukraine. They have been utterly incapable of anything except terrorism from a military perspective and are being driven back by force, not by strategic retreat. 

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Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

russia retreating and giving back the land they have occupied would be the death of putin, no? i can't see how he could survive that type of defeat on the home front... 

I used to think that, but the Russian people are used to eating shit sandwiches (the ones who don’t want to eat shit sandwiches leave Russia), and Putin controls the media and can jail people who say things that he doesn’t like.  It’s like Russians are Eeyore on a large scale.

I think if he “rescued” a million Russian speakers from Ukraine and resettled them in Russia (whether they wanted it or not) he could call that a victory even if he got kicked out of of everywhere but Crimea.

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I used to think that, but the Russian people are used to eating shit sandwiches (the ones who don’t want to eat shit sandwiches leave Russia), and Putin controls the media and can jail people who say things that he doesn’t like.  It’s like Russians are Eeyore on a large scale.

I think if he “rescued” a million Russian speakers from Ukraine and resettled them in Russia (whether they wanted it or not) he could call that a victory even if he got kicked out of of everywhere but Crimea.

Why would Ukraine stop short of taking back crimea?  Other than the US/EU saying the fighting needs to end/supplies will halt. 
 

to belabor the bully analogy, when you knock your bully on his ass, you jump on him and punch until someone pulls you off.  

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22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I dunno, have you heard of something called The Soviet Union and what happened to them over time when forced to keep up with the United States and NATO? It was sort of a big deal in the last 50 years of geopolitics. 

 

So you are saying that what "happened to them over time" is the same thing as "Western nations confront Russia immediately with strength and severity, Russia crumbles under the weight of their bravado"? 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Didn't Zelensky just say that they weren't stopping until they got Crimea back? 

He did. Russia seems to be fucked. Howitzers about to show up in eastern Ukraine and helicopter resupply imminent. These are very very bad for Russia. 

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9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Why would Ukraine stop short of taking back crimea?  Other than the US/EU saying the fighting needs to end/supplies will halt. 
 

to belabor the bully analogy, when you knock your bully on his ass, you jump on him and punch until someone pulls you off.  

6 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Didn't Zelensky just say that they weren't stopping until they got Crimea back? 

When they push Russia out of Donbas, etc., I think Russia will put whatever they have left into defending Crimea, which has some serious choke points. Ukraine doesn’t have the sea power to maneuver around and put pressure on them from the sea.

I would love to be wrong.

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10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Why would Ukraine stop short of taking back crimea?  Other than the US/EU saying the fighting needs to end/supplies will halt. 
 

to belabor the bully analogy, when you knock your bully on his ass, you jump on him and punch until someone pulls you off.  

100% this.  Which is exactly how I dealt with a particular bully back in the day.  It solved some shit, I can tell you.  Oh, the bully grew up to be a racist cop -- shocker there.

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18 minutes ago, immamac said:

Russia isn't retreating they are being defeated. They aren't giving back anything, they are having it forcefully taken away. 

Russians have suffered an incredible amount of loss at a ratio of nearly 9:1 compared to Ukraine. They have been utterly incapable of anything except terrorism from a military perspective and are being driven back by force, not by strategic retreat. 

for fuck's sake, man.

does putin remain in power after losing this war and surrendering (is that word ok? if not, please don't obsess over it and stay focused on the question) crimea and other consonant-heavy areas which i can't spell? 

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1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

for fuck's sake, man.

does putin remain in power after losing this war and surrendering (is that word ok? if not, please don't obsess over it and stay focused on the question) crimea and other consonant-heavy areas which i can't spell? 

Yes is the short answer. The Russian people are part of the problem. 

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20 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I used to think that, but the Russian people are used to eating shit sandwiches (the ones who don’t want to eat shit sandwiches leave Russia), and Putin controls the media and can jail people who say things that he doesn’t like.  It’s like Russians are Eeyore on a large scale.

I think if he “rescued” a million Russian speakers from Ukraine and resettled them in Russia (whether they wanted it or not) he could call that a victory even if he got kicked out of of everywhere but Crimea.

isn't his appeal at home that he a) he improved their quality of life and b) projects the strongman on the world stage they desperately crave?

seems like this war shatters both of those things, no?

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17 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 when you knock your bully on his ass, you jump on him and punch until someone pulls you off.  

 

27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I feel like Putin is the schoolyard bully who just got his nose bloodied by a would-be victim, and he’s dazed, and he’s looking around at everybody watching him, and nobody is rushing to help him, except maybe the Libyan kid is trying to cheer him on, and all that’s running through his mind is “what the fuck do I do now?”  Meanwhile the Ukrainian kid is moving in to punch him again.

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31 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I think we’re kind of talking past each other as to what restraint means. Clearly, Putin has not used every tool in his toolbox against Ukraine.  I would expect nothing else in a war of choice against an opponent that shows no threat to you. I am not sure that a failure to commit the resources needed to achieve his maximalist goals due to miscalculation is restraint, nor do I think that operational constraints imposed on him are restraint, nor do I think “let’s save this shit so we can steal it later” constitutes restraint. 
 

I think to speak of restraint in the context of an armed conflict, it has to include at a minimum care to avoid excess civilian casualties, avoidance of war crimes and atrocities, and carefully selected targets intended to communicate a message along the lines of “this stops if you stop doing what we don’t like.” 

Clearly, restraint does not have to include the items you mentioned (care to avoid civilian casualties, crimes, etc.). Folks should rely on the article to understand what it says in terms of "restraint."  

This article does not put Putin or Russia in a positive light. Folks should read it themselves - pasted below.  What is does do is frame Putin as a "rationale" actor that is being restrained by a range of factors - rather than as a madman intent on destroying the world. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-nato.html

Quote

Russia’s War Has Been Brutal, but Putin Has Shown Some Restraint. Why?

Western officials are debating the Kremlin’s calculations in not trying harder to halt weapons shipments in Ukraine. Analysts wonder whether a bigger mobilization by Moscow is on the horizon.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has leveled cities, killed tens of thousands of people and forced millions of others from their homes.

But quietly, some military analysts and Western officials are asking why the onslaught has not been even worse.

Russia could be going after Ukrainian railways, roads and bridges more aggressively to try to stanch the flow of Western weapons to the front line. It could have bombed more of the infrastructure around the capital, Kyiv, to make it harder for Western leaders to visit President Volodymyr Zelensky in shows of unity and resolve. And it could be doing far more to inflict pain on the West, whether by cyberattack, sabotage or more cutoffs of energy exports to Europe.

Part of the reason appears to be sheer incompetence: The opening weeks of the war demonstrated vividly that Russia’s military was far less capable than believed before the invasion. But American and European officials also say that President Vladimir V. Putin’s tactics in recent weeks have appeared to be remarkably cautious, marked by a slow-moving offensive in eastern Ukraine, a restrained approach to taking out Ukrainian infrastructure and an avoidance of actions that could escalate the conflict with NATO.

The apparent restraint on the ground stands in contrast to the bombast on Russian state television, where Moscow is described as being locked in an existential fight against the West and where the use of nuclear weapons is openly discussed. The issue is whether, as the war grinds on, Mr. Putin will change tack and intensify the war.

That is a particularly urgent question ahead of the Victory Day holiday in Russia next Monday, when Mr. Putin traditionally presides over a grandiose parade marking the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany and gives a militaristic speech. Ben Wallace, the British defense secretary, predicted last week that Mr. Putin would use the speech for an official declaration of war and a mass mobilization of the Russian people.

American and European officials say that they have not seen any on-the-ground movements that would show any much larger push with additional troops beginning on May 9 or soon after. Those officials now expect a slower, grinding campaign inside Ukraine. But they do not disagree that Mr. Putin could use the speech to declare a wider war and a deeper national effort to fight it.

For the moment, Mr. Putin appears to be in a military holding pattern, one that is allowing Ukraine to regroup and stock up on Western weaponry. On Monday, a senior Pentagon official called Russia’s latest offensive in eastern Ukraine “very cautious, very tepid.” In Russia, there is grumbling that the military is fighting with one hand tied behind its back, with the strategy and aims not understood by the public.

“This is a strange, special kind of war,” Dmitri Trenin, until recently the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank, said in a phone interview from outside Moscow. “Russia has set some rather strict limits for itself, and this is not being explained in any way — which raises a lot of questions, first of all, among Russian citizens.”

Mr. Trenin is one of the few analysts from his think tank, shuttered last month by the Russian government, who chose to stay in Russia after the war began. He said that he was struggling to explain why the Kremlin was fighting at “less than half strength.”

Why isn’t Russia bombing more bridges and railway networks, he asked, when they are allowing Ukraine’s military to receive more of the West’s increasingly lethal weapons deliveries with every passing day? Why are Western leaders — like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Sunday — still able to visit Kyiv safely?

“I find this strange, and I can’t explain it,” Mr. Trenin said.

To be sure, Russian missile strikes have targeted infrastructure across Ukraine, including an important bridge in the country’s southwest on Monday and the runway of the Odesa airport on Saturday. But across the Atlantic, officials and analysts are asking themselves similar questions as Mr. Trenin.

For weeks, officials in Washington have discussed why the Russian military has not been more aggressive in trying to destroy the supply lines that send Western arms shipments into Ukraine. Part of the answer, officials say, is that Ukrainian air defense continues to threaten Russian aircraft, and the deeper Russian planes go into Ukraine the greater the chance they are going to be shot down.

Russia has also struggled with its precision munitions — missiles or rockets with guidance systems. Many of those weapons have failed to work properly, and Russian supplies of the weapons are limited. Strikes on rail lines or moving convoys must be very precise to be effective.

Other officials have argued that Moscow is eager to avoid destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure too severely, in the possibly misguided hope that it can still take control of the country. Russia would be stuck with a huge rebuilding job if it took over cities devastated by its own bombing.

A senior American defense official said that Mr. Putin may have avoided destroying Ukraine’s rail network because he did not want to hurt his own ability to move equipment and troops around the country. The Russians have been more focused on destroying weapon storage areas than the rail network.

American officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private military and intelligence assessments.

Then there is the question of why Russia hasn’t hit back harder against the West. The Kremlin narrative is of an existential war with NATO being fought on Ukrainian soil, but Russia is the one taking military losses while the West keeps a safe distance and supplies weapons that kill Russian soldiers.

“A lot of people in this town are asking why they haven’t retaliated yet,” said Samuel Charap, a former U.S. State Department official in Washington and a Russia analyst with the RAND Corporation. “It seems low probability that the U.S. and its allies will experience no blowback from having put this many Russian soldiers in their graves.”

Russia has the tools to do widespread damage to the West. The gas shortages caused by the cyberattack on the Colonial Pipeline last year showed the disruption that Russian hacking can inflict on American infrastructure. Berlin has warned that a cutoff of Russian gas could throw the German economy into a recession.

And then there is Moscow’s world-leading nuclear arsenal, with an estimated 5,977 warheads: Their catastrophic capability is being hyped in ever-shriller terms in the Russian media.

“You thought you could destroy us with other people’s hands and observe from the sidelines from a safe distance?” Sergei Mironov, an outspoken hawk in Russia’s Parliament, said on Saturday, claiming that his country’s new intercontinental ballistic missile could destroy Britain in a single strike. “It won’t work, gentlemen — you’ll have to pay for it all in full!” he added.

Mr. Putin has also warned of retaliation, but he values ambiguity, too. Last year, he said that those crossing a “red line” would face an “asymmetric, fast and tough” response — an indication that the response would come at a time and place of Moscow’s choosing.

“Nobody really knows where the red line is,” Mr. Charap, the analyst, said. “I don’t even think the Russians know, because we are in such uncharted waters.”

American and allied officials have debated why Mr. Putin hasn’t tried widespread or more damaging cyberstrikes. Some say that Mr. Putin has been effectively deterred. The Russian military, struggling to make gains in Ukraine, cannot handle a wider war with NATO and does not want to give the alliance any excuse to enter the war more directly.

Others argue that a cyberstrike on a NATO country is one of the few cards Mr. Putin can play and that he may be waiting for a later stage in his campaign to do that.

While Mr. Putin has been unafraid of escalating the rhetoric, his actions have suggested he does not want to do anything that could prompt a wider war.

“The general sense is that he wants to snatch some sort of victory out of this debacle of his,” said the American defense official, suggesting that Mr. Putin was not interested in “borrowing more trouble.”

Before the invasion on Feb. 24, Mr. Trenin, of the Carnegie center, predicted that the Ukrainian military would put up a fierce resistance and that Mr. Putin would discover a lack of political support for Russia in Ukraine. On that, Mr. Trenin turned out to be right.

What he was wrong about, Mr. Trenin said, was the information that aides and commanders would provide to Mr. Putin about Russia’s capabilities, which turned out to be flawed.

Mr. Trenin says he still sees Mr. Putin as fundamentally rational, rather than someone willing to engage in a nuclear war, with a “maniacal determination to destroy mankind.”

“That would not be a mistake — that would be a total departure from rationality,” Mr. Trenin said. “I hope that now I am not wrong.”

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

 

So you are saying that what "happened to them over time" is the same thing as "Western nations confront Russia immediately with strength and severity, Russia crumbles under the weight of their bravado"? 

 

 

Dude...

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This thread turned toward "acrimonious" after my post, and I don't want that.  I'm just an idiot on the internet and I don't want people upset.  Please disregard that post, and I hope we can get back to updates and tweets of Russian tank turrets flying around. Thank you.  Sorry.

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35 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

 

So you are saying that what "happened to them over time" is the same thing as "Western nations confront Russia immediately with strength and severity, Russia crumbles under the weight of their bravado"? 

 

 

Yes you knob, there is a reason that multiple posters on this thread are mocking you. The original post never specified the time frame of collapse. They were immediately met with strength, and eventually they fucking crumbled. Point out to me in the text YOU bolded where it says "immediately crumbled." I have news for you, Ukraine is going to be a long and drawn out process. Nothing is happening there immediately either. Fuck, Russian sanctions are just now bearing fruit. 

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27 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

Clearly, restraint does not have to include the items you mentioned (care to avoid civilian casualties, crimes, etc.). Folks should rely on the article to understand what it says in terms of "restraint."  

This article does not put Putin or Russia in a positive light. Folks should read it themselves - pasted below.  What is does do is frame Putin as a "rationale" actor that is being restrained by a range of factors - rather than as a madman intent on destroying the world. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-nato.html

 

I think what’s tripping a lot of the experts who push back on this article up is that “restraint” does have an agreed upon definition when talking about the armed conflicts. And it’s pretty much what I posted above— restraint in warfare and conflict speak means deliberate actions to limit violence and deliberate efforts to uphold standards expected of a professional military . It’s not a synonym for rationality and it’s certainly not applicable when speaking of operational constraints imposed on a military from the outside. Armies and leaders voluntarily impose restraints upon themselves. 
 

So yes, you can say that Putin has shown restraint by not just dropping a nuke on Ukraine, and in English it makes sense— but it’s not really what people mean when they talk about restraint in warfare.  The war as prosecuted by Putin has been marked by a lack of what’s usually understood as “restraint.”

Anyway, that’s my last post on the topic. I don’t think anyone believes that Putin wanted to start WWIII here and I think that looking at why Russia has targeted what they have is really useful. I don’t think it’s helpful to think in terms of any sort of effort to limit casualties or pursue more limited aims (until very recently). I think it’s far more helpful to talk about constraints and costs imposed on Putin rather than any sort of limitations or restraints he’s put on his own behavior. 

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2 minutes ago, 27-25 said:

Russia seems to be losing other types of tankers as well.

 

You have to wonder, is all of this stuff relatively normal in Russia, and just now getting coverage because of the war? Because as 956 has said about fire controls they suck, and if their military has shown anything it's that it, and I assume the rest of the country, is crumbling under graft and kleptocracy. So this could be...normal shit. Although I'm sure we'd all much prefer the idea there's a dozen or so Ukrainian special forces guys inside Russia's borders just creating havoc. But I have to assume it's the former, right? 

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Although I'm sure we'd all much prefer the idea there's a dozen or so Ukrainian special forces guys inside Russia's borders just creating havoc. But I have to assume it's the former, right? 

Even if they think it MIGHT be, that will cause a drain on manpower - protecting many critical plants and factories in Mother Russia that need the protection.   Those security guards won’t be going to Dombas. 

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8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

But that's not crumbling.  It's a slow dissolve.   Doesn't fit the same bill according to O&W  

"It's not losing if it happens slowly." Orange&White. In related news, didn't the Kansas game take like 4 or 4.5 hours last season? "It's a win!" O&W again. 

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9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You have to wonder, is all of this stuff relatively normal in Russia, and just now getting coverage because of the war? Because as 956 has said about fire controls they suck, and if their military has shown anything it's that it, and I assume the rest of the country, is crumbling under graft and kleptocracy. So this could be...normal shit. Although I'm sure we'd all much prefer the idea there's a dozen or so Ukrainian special forces guys inside Russia's borders just creating havoc. But I have to assume it's the former, right? 

I assume a good number of the fires in the defense industry are due to trying to quickly ramp up production to replace lost supplies. 

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56 minutes ago, immamac said:

Russia pissing off Israel to the point of supporting Ukraine is an absolutely incredible display of ineptitude. 

Lavrov blaming the Jews for the holocaust may have ruffled their feathers just a bit.

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I work in international oil and gas in one of the former USSR states and I have heard some pretty wild stories from my colleagues who have worked in Russia, and many of them have. 
 

I have heard stories about everything from prison convicts being  pressed into service as labor on projects that are behind schedule, oligarchs flying in to site locations on private jets to demand work is completed on schedule regardless of the safety consequences (critical crane lifts performed in extremely high wind conditions) then flying back out once the work was completed. And many others. 
 

One thing they all mention is the standard oil spill clean up response - launch some flare guns at it until it burns off then just carry on. 
 

So yea, they have a pretty shit safety culture and don’t care who gets injured or killed along the way. 

13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You have to wonder, is all of this stuff relatively normal in Russia, and just now getting coverage because of the war? Because as 956 has said about fire controls they suck, and if their military has shown anything it's that it, and I assume the rest of the country, is crumbling under graft and kleptocracy. So this could be...normal shit. Although I'm sure we'd all much prefer the idea there's a dozen or so Ukrainian special forces guys inside Russia's borders just creating havoc. But I have to assume it's the former, right? 

 

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50 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

Clearly, restraint does not have to include the items you mentioned (care to avoid civilian casualties, crimes, etc.). Folks should rely on the article to understand what it says in terms of "restraint."  

This article does not put Putin or Russia in a positive light. Folks should read it themselves - pasted below.  What is does do is frame Putin as a "rationale" actor that is being restrained by a range of factors - rather than as a madman intent on destroying the world. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/03/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-nato.html

 

Don't forget it's not the author that writes the headline.

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19 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You have to wonder, is all of this stuff relatively normal in Russia, and just now getting coverage because of the war? Because as 956 has said about fire controls they suck, and if their military has shown anything it's that it, and I assume the rest of the country, is crumbling under graft and kleptocracy. So this could be...normal shit. Although I'm sure we'd all much prefer the idea there's a dozen or so Ukrainian special forces guys inside Russia's borders just creating havoc. But I have to assume it's the former, right? 

It’s a massive country with lots of shitty infrastructure. You can troll U.S. headlines and find shit like tanker fires. Huge damages at strategically important facilities near Ukraine are one thing, but no— Ukrainian SOF isn’t targeting trucks in Dzerzhinsk. We’re playing close attention to everything so we notice more. 
 

Fun fact about Dzerzhinsk, it’s named after the fearsome first head of the Cheka under Lenin, Felix Dzerzhinsky.  That’s a Polish name and difficult for Russian tongues. But the town was named after him from inception and so kept the name rather than reverting to its pre-Soviet name like Leningrad to St. Petersburg. The town is exactly as charming as you might imagine a Soviet built chemical producing metro in Nizhni Novgorod oblast. 

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8 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Moronic by Lavrov. Plenty of other things he could've said to keep the narrative going.

Lavrov is speaking to Russians to reassure them that they’re still fighting Nazis and also to remind them that it’s OK not to like Jews. It seems clear that Russia has gone full heel and has likely decided that their delicate modicum of understanding with Israel isn’t as important anymore.  Look for them to more explicitly align with Palestine and Iran. 

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26 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Eventually Russia will run out of tanks. They likely already lost half of them. 

Russia average DAILY losses over the past 10 days: 

UAV                               11    These appear to be more reconnaissance than offensive weapons, comments?

Tanks                            20

Artillery                           8

Armored Vehicles        37

Other Vehicles             31

Russia only lost 13 aircraft & 1 helicopter in the past ten days; probably due to fewer flights and avoidance of better UA air defense.  Is Russia "saving" their air support for some offensive move?

Tanks and armored losses total 57 per day, indicative of more and better drones and artillery operating in open terrain. As UA receives still better drones, longer range and bigger artillery, and more air assets, Russia's losses will increase.

It appears Russia will just pound civilain targets until they can't.  

Viet Minh soldier: Do we take prisoners?
Lt. Nguyen Huu An: No. Kill all they send, and they will stop coming.
 

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