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The short and long term socioeconomic effects of Covid 19

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GUYS, LET'S NOT DISCUSS POLITICS IN THIS THREAD.  You have an entire board to go throw poop in.  Take it over there.

Coronavirus is the biggest or second-biggest world event since Hiroshima, and we know that once it passes, things won't all be the same.  Some aspects will be permanently changed.   Like what?

Overthrow of governments.  Iran is a good example.  Despotic government lies and cheats there way through, but you can't hide the fact that my brother died.  What nations will have civil conflict.

Have we experienced peak oil consumption?  Solar and wind have been growing, and I believe overall energy usage has fallen some?  Will this be the "sear" that trips the trigger that shoots carbon energy in the head.  Will carbon-based energy usage fall hard?

Restaurants.  Eating out has been a flat business for a few years.  If an entire nation spends 2-4 weeks cooking for themselves, are they gonna ever wanna go to Flingers again?

Brick and mortar retail.  DEAD.  It was dying before this and CV is gonna kill it entirely.  Delivery and curb-side pickup will be the only thing left.

What else?

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While local restaurants are going to temporarily get crushed it will come back. I do think it will be like VE day when this thing is finally over though.

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1 minute ago, DCA_HORN said:

I do think it will be like VE day when this thing is finally over though.

It'll be like VE day if I make it through next week without murdering my children. 

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Dovetailing on your brick and mortar retail note, I'd say physical bank branches are dead men walking.  I watch developers put up a 50,000 foot strip center (with nearly-dead anchor tenants) with with a pad site bank and  wonder who the fuck underwrites this crap?  

We were already adopting it, but at an excruciatingly slow pace because of dug-in stakeholders looking to grift wherever/whenever they could.  But the IoT for supply chain will be widely implemented by the end of 2021.  I mean in every market vertical, from manufacturer to end-user.  Because of Covid-19, it'll go from something in Wired magazine to being a part of every American's everyday life within 24 months.  It'll be almost seamlessly integrated into your smart device.  

And I don't think people are going to say "Bless You" when someone in sneezes in public anymore. 

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Larger acceptance of work from home. Why should employers pay rent when they can push that off on their employees. 

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24 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Larger acceptance of work from home. Why should employers pay rent when they can push that off on their employees. 

I see this catching on.

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After the  “we are here to help” banker line wears off.

 

Good luck getting a loan to operate or expand: 

hotels

restaurants

bars

 

Or any company that counts on the above for a significant portion of revenue.

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Posted (edited)

So the Earth is experiencing over-population, global warming, hunger, harm to flora and fauna. What does Mother Nature do in times like these? Reduce the numbers. Trim the excess in betterment of the whole. Like a wildfire.

(Just a thought I've been having. Not sure where it goes.) 

Edited by Steel Shank

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I will throw out a positive effect that is on a very long a extremely fragile limb.

I think the isolation we are all about to endure will have a profound and unexpected effect in two ways.

First, people have been driving to larger and larger cities. Huddling closer and closer together. My gut tells me, after this, because of things like work from home mentioned above, a lot more people are going to start considering more remote smaller community. My instinct is to get into the land sales game, or extensively into more land. Likely the second. Probably do that even if I'm wrong.

That will be compounded by a second item. The millennials and many others too, focus most of their social interactions on line. I think a goodly number of people after an extended time being forced to isolate are going to crave engagement with people directly, face to face. Probably not en-mas ala sporting events, rather in community related to interest. This already occurs but it niche in groups like motorcycle riders, world travelers, skiiers, hikers, board game junkies, comic freaks etc. I think it will expand to more diverse group.

Then again this all might absolutely 100% be my own cognitive bias as a motorcycle riding, hiking, snow skiing, board and RPG junkie who moved out of the city to a large chunk of land.

In fact, now that I say that, I'm pretty fucking sure I just made up something I thought might occur that fits my specific life model.

Oh well, I said it was a long thin branch. I'll fucking leave it here anyway.

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Toilet paper becomes the preferred global currency.  Wallets become larger to accommodate 

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General health and well being improves across the board.  Consumption decreases due to a renewed appreciation of health, and money.

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I worked from home for 7 years then got called into an office last year because I lived within 70ms of a Corp office despite not working with anyone in said office.  Of course I only went in once or twice per month.  Today I received an email that my office is being repurposed until further notice.  For me;  thats the bright side of all of this.   
 

on another note I believe this is going to reverse some of our, or at least my, reliance on e-commerce.  Locally I can’t order shit through amazon right now.  

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34 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Toilet paper becomes the preferred global currency.  Wallets become larger to accommodate 

Affix a belt clip to one of these, and you got yourself a new bidness.

HexWallMntdTltPprHldrBlkSHS19

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Hopefully we get a renewed focus on mental health and counseling beyond hitting the bottle. Seems like people are losing their minds a week into this, so hopefully this expands the need for people to see mental health experts about the isolation and loneliness that we experience beyond a quarantine. 

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No one TP's houses anymore.

In all seriousness, I agree with the above sentiments but namely health and wellness will improve.  We might end up with better preventative medicine now that we realize the health of our fellow citizen directly impacts our lives.

Restaurant business will go back to where it was, which was essentially flat with the middle tier dying off.

Brick and mortal retail will bounce back as well.  The stores aren't physically built to handle this much drive thru volume.

I'll go out on a limb and say this will force people to save more money.  They'll realize that being literally one paycheck away from a catastrophe isn't a good thing.

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Most of these are hopes.  I doubt they'll happen.

We'll realize that healthcare is a community good.  In circumstances like these, I am literally only as healthy as the people around me.  If they are sick, I get sick.  It is to EVERYONE'S benefit to have a healthy society.  We have to find ways to make that happen.  Universal healthcare, something else, I don't know.

Maybe more of a focus on public health as a strategic good.  No matter how many $350 million F-35s we have, none of them can protect us from the enemy that just laid waste to our society, economy, and who knows how many people killed.  Effort spent to protect us from the next global pandemic is money well spent.

Could we maybe realize that we need each other, and we're part of a greater community?  The myth of the Great Individual has been blown up, if we're paying attention.  If my neighbor is sick -- and that includes people in other countries -- then I can be sickened.  I am only as well and as safe as those around me.  We truly ARE "all in this together."  Being willing to run roughshod over the common good for individual gain is not just morally wrong -- it's actually counterproductive.  What good does "I got mine" do if "I also died because society collapsed/a pandemic killed me?"  If we just want to be calculating, there's a reason that all moral codes have some version of "love your neighbor" -- it's good sense, it's good business.  I'd hope we can reassess what it means to have a commonwealth.

There you go.  Words of hope from Brisket.  I guess Hell froze over.  If it makes you feel more comfortable, I'll tell you that I doubt we'll figure out a fucking thing.

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I really think that people are going to pull back from traveling until there’s a really effective vaccine for this. You’re going to see a LOT less air travel, especially international, over the next 12-18 months. As a result, CO2 emissions will be reduced a lot more than expected. We are going to see how that impacts climate change, realize it’s an attainable goal, and actually agree that it’s worth trying to fix. Then in 2 years everyone will be lured back in by cheap airfare and we will be right back where we were. But I can fly to Rome for $200 round trip!

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14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Most of these are hopes.  I doubt they'll happen.

We'll realize that healthcare is a community good.  In circumstances like these, I am literally only as healthy as the people around me.  If they are sick, I get sick.  It is to EVERYONE'S benefit to have a healthy society.  We have to find ways to make that happen.  Universal healthcare, something else, I don't know.

Maybe more of a focus on public health as a strategic good.  No matter how many $350 million F-35s we have, none of them can protect us from the enemy that just laid waste to our society, economy, and who knows how many people killed.  Effort spent to protect us from the next global pandemic is money well spent.

Could we maybe realize that we need each other, and we're part of a greater community?  The myth of the Great Individual has been blown up, if we're paying attention.  If my neighbor is sick -- and that includes people in other countries -- then I can be sickened.  I am only as well and as safe as those around me.  We truly ARE "all in this together."  Being willing to run roughshod over the common good for individual gain is not just morally wrong -- it's actually counterproductive.  What good does "I got mine" do if "I also died because society collapsed/a pandemic killed me?"  If we just want to be calculating, there's a reason that all moral codes have some version of "love your neighbor" -- it's good sense, it's good business.  I'd hope we can reassess what it means to have a commonwealth.

There you go.  Words of hope from Brisket.  I guess Hell froze over.  If it makes you feel more comfortable, I'll tell you that I doubt we'll figure out a fucking thing.

right there with you. correct the overheated American Individual

And on the other end - no nukes. Keep those expectations low. This will definitely cause all kinds of geopolitics agitations. 

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24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Most of these are hopes.  I doubt they'll happen.

We'll realize that healthcare is a community good.  In circumstances like these, I am literally only as healthy as the people around me.  If they are sick, I get sick.  It is to EVERYONE'S benefit to have a healthy society.  We have to find ways to make that happen.  Universal healthcare, something else, I don't know.

Maybe more of a focus on public health as a strategic good.  No matter how many $350 million F-35s we have, none of them can protect us from the enemy that just laid waste to our society, economy, and who knows how many people killed.  Effort spent to protect us from the next global pandemic is money well spent.

Could we maybe realize that we need each other, and we're part of a greater community?  The myth of the Great Individual has been blown up, if we're paying attention.  If my neighbor is sick -- and that includes people in other countries -- then I can be sickened.  I am only as well and as safe as those around me.  We truly ARE "all in this together."  Being willing to run roughshod over the common good for individual gain is not just morally wrong -- it's actually counterproductive.  What good does "I got mine" do if "I also died because society collapsed/a pandemic killed me?"  If we just want to be calculating, there's a reason that all moral codes have some version of "love your neighbor" -- it's good sense, it's good business.  I'd hope we can reassess what it means to have a commonwealth.

There you go.  Words of hope from Brisket.  I guess Hell froze over.  If it makes you feel more comfortable, I'll tell you that I doubt we'll figure out a fucking thing.

out of rep. 

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Pretty much week one only so there is still a lot of newness, but I've noticed people being a lot nicer to each other the few times I venture out from my hermetically sealed environment. 

Overall I find Millenials too nice to a fault and Boomers too nasty to a fault.  If the see-saw dips in favor of the Millenials going forward, I'm ok with that.  But the Gen-Z / Zoomers, whatevers... those little shits are going to be the ones that really kick a lot of ass going forward.  I see a lot of potential in them.

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15 minutes ago, hornian said:

I really think that people are going to pull back from traveling until there’s a really effective vaccine for this. You’re going to see a LOT less air travel, especially international, over the next 12-18 months. As a result, CO2 emissions will be reduced a lot more than expected. We are going to see how that impacts climate change, realize it’s an attainable goal, and actually agree that it’s worth trying to fix. Then in 2 years everyone will be lured back in by cheap airfare and we will be right back where we were. But I can fly to Rome for $200 round trip!

Maybe some people, but not me.  As soon as things are a lot better, my ass is on a plane to get the fuck out for a bit.  Thinking Greek Island for a week, followed by another Greek Island, then maybe an extended shopping weekend in Paris.  

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I also think the meaning of the term "national security" will change.  Instead of $300M fighter planes to protect us from who knows what, we're left completely exposed to pandemics.  

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I also think the meaning of the term "national security" will change.  Instead of $300M fighter planes to protect us from who knows what, we're left completely exposed to pandemics.  

Exactly. We’re really bad at cost-effective risk prevention. We’ll spend a trillion to protect against an invasion that’s never coming...and tree fiddy on preventing disease and social collapse. We’re bad at math. We should be better at math.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Exactly. We’re really bad at cost-effective risk prevention. We’ll spend a trillion to protect against an invasion that’s never coming...and tree fiddy on preventing disease and social collapse. We’re bad at math. We should be better at math.

Smallish point of fact note. We've already been "invaded" as China basically owns our ass, but otherwise I agree.

That said never happen, but should.

Edited by BurntEyes

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1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I think in 4-5 weeks, if they do not let people out, we will see massive amounts of Civil Disobedience.  We are a week in, and people are struggling.  

I will take the under,  unless they start rolling out the dead and put on a huge publicity effort scare people into compliance.

 

 

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4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

porn site revenue is gonna go through the roof

The pornhub usage chart is inversely proportional to S&P 500 chart.  #Stonks

We are proper fucked.  So at least there's that. 

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1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I think in 4-5 weeks, if they do not let people out, we will see massive amounts of Civil Disobedience.  We are a week in, and people are struggling.  

In the main MEGAthread I guessed 8 weeks of fairly strict precautions like bars not being open.  8 weeks from March 14th when things got more serious with bar closures etc...

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having an 18 yoa niece...i was thinking about some of the kids that age, not the morons in the FL spring break videos, but the ones like my niece and others that are PISSED OFF at the world, that pay attention and have all sorts of shit they want to tackle, from environment to CJ reform to wealth inequality, whatever. 

and we were just seeing, before the pandemic took over the headlines. how they still weren't showing out for Bernie for example, and knowing how cynical and jaded they are...

i was thinking well, y'all are pissed off at the world and felt like you couldn't change shit, the 'status quo' was intractable...well guess what, the whole world just shifted and nobody is in control at the moment...so NOW what are y'all going to do?

 

 

maybe nothing...but if they really wanted a chance, i think they finally have it. 

and i hope they take it. they can't do any worse. 

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I'm curious to see if some manufacturing comes back here. Not at the levels it used to be, but the global supply chain can be easily disrupted during the next pandemic and there has to be some risk mitigation around that.

 

 

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I'm curious to see if some manufacturing comes back here. Not at the levels it used to be, but the global supply chain can be easily disrupted during the next pandemic and there has to be some risk mitigation around that.
 
 

I think that some of it has to...and a smart seller can sell that. “My supply won’t be interrupted - rely on me.”

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


I think that some of it has to...and a smart seller can sell that. “My supply won’t be interrupted - rely on me.”

And Mr. Fortune 500 CEO says "You cost $0.005 per widget more than overseas.  Piss off, I got stock options riding on this and I'm out of here in less than two years any way.  I'll let the next guy worry about supply disruptions."

Or something like that.

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The craziness in the stores is going to become the new norm whenever there’s a mention of something. People will be scared and start panic buying at the slightest sign. People are fucking idiots.

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I was just thinking, the traffic cops are probably having a hard time hitting their quotas, and small speed trap towns might rely on writing tickets for revenue.  Might have to watch your speed out there.  And try your best not to be black or Latino.  

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On 3/20/2020 at 5:54 PM, Blotto said:

Larger acceptance of work from home. Why should employers pay rent when they can push that off on their employees. 

Home office deduction.

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The idea above about more working from home is spot on for many office workers.  Bean counters will definitely spot cost reductions to essentially freely outsource office expenses to employees.  While they already knew this last month, many leaders hate work-from-home because they are worried about productivity dropping. This situation will change that, and help to identify dead weight employees anyway.

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Posted (edited)

I think this lasts much longer than most people are thinking. The social distancing will flatten the curve but the moment we do away with it and open everything back up it’s going to flare up all over again maybe worse than the first time. There will be multiple waves of it and people will get it more than once.  I think we see this way of life until the vaccine comes out a year or so from now.

And when it’s all over with everyone will revert back to their original way of life. No one will save more, governments will still operate the same way they always have, priorities will be in the wrong places, and it’ll happen again a few years later.  But we’ll have more masks and ventilators on hand for it next time.  That’ll be the big crowning achievement touted by our leaders... “Look how much better prepared we are this time!  We have a billion masks!” as everything else collapses again. 
 

There will be a generation of people who are made aware of this time but don’t truly learn the lessons from it. Just like the baby boomers with the great depression. Their parents lived through it but they didn’t. Those lessons learned don’t last more than a generation. 

Edited by Your Mom

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On 3/20/2020 at 7:36 PM, Brisketexan said:

... It is to EVERYONE'S benefit to have a healthy society.  We have to find ways to make that happen.  ...

I've opined on this subject before, and I tend to view the issue from the other side of the pendulum swing.  Government (and by extension, taxpayers) should not be in the business of socializing health care costs for people who make irrational/irresponsible life choices (ex. smoking, gluttony, insufficient exercise, etc.).  There is a tremendous moral hazard at play here.  Americans do not feel the weight of responsibility for their choices that affect their health (and consequent health care costs).  That's about as much as I care to say on the subject in the Daily Texan forum.

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1 hour ago, Your Mom said:

I think this lasts much longer than most people are thinking. The social distancing will flatten the curve but the moment we do away with it and open everything back up it’s going to flare up all over again maybe worse than the first time. There will be multiple waves of it and people will get it more than once.  I think we see this way of life until the vaccine comes out a year or so from now.

And when it’s all over with everyone will revert back to their original way of life. No one will save more, governments will still operate the same way they always have, priorities will be in the wrong places, and it’ll happen again a few years later.  But we’ll have more masks and ventilators on hand for it next time.  That’ll be the big crowning achievement touted by our leaders... “Look how much better prepared we are this time!  We have a billion masks!” as everything else collapses again. 
 

There will be a generation of people who are made aware of this time but don’t truly learn the lessons from it. Just like the baby boomers with the great depression. Their parents lived through it but they didn’t. Those lessons learned don’t last more than a generation. 

You're right about a second burn being a serious issue.  

However, I think the lessons from this could last much longer than our usual inability to truly change from calamitous global events.  Simply because of the documentation of it.  Other than Lange's famous photo and the Ken Burns doc, there's not much that people see/read about the Great Depression.  1918 influenza has barely had anything written about it until now.  WWII finally permeates into the global psyche because of how much rich media, books, and even pop culture delved into it.  Even the most apathetic hipster has a WWII book somewhere on his shelf or has watched Band of Brothers.  I think at least 100 years of humans can look back at this through any number of lenses and think "holy shit, we can't have any of that..."  But of course there'll always be stupid people that'll have this virus unfold in their own homes and think it's all a Chinese hoax. 

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I wouldn't be surprised to see the unemployment system transform into something that looks like universal basic income.

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On ‎3‎/‎20‎/‎2020 at 11:45 PM, Fudge Nuggets said:

And Mr. Fortune 500 CEO says "You cost $0.005 per widget more than overseas. 

 

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On ‎3‎/‎20‎/‎2020 at 4:44 PM, Parliament said:

Restaurants.  Eating out has been a flat business for a few years.  If an entire nation spends 2-4 weeks cooking for themselves, are they gonna ever wanna go to Flingers again?

I do think folks will return to the restaurants, but I wonder if recovery in that business will be slower that we realize.  Once the restrictions are lifted, many people will still be (1) fearful of transmission and avoid large group settings, and/or (2) recovering financially from lost work and continue eating at home to save money.

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Assuming this gets under control in the next couple months and they have an effective vaccine/treatment within a year:

Working from home will become far more prevalent.  Already happening but will happen faster; will have dramatic impacts on traffic, home floor plans, etc.

Small preventative measures: airports taking peoples temp during security screening, etc.

Universal healthcare more likely than before.  Even without that, there will likely be laws put in place to have better plans in case of another pandemic.

Lots of dying industries will die faster: retail is fucked.  Lots of thriving companies will do even better: Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Google

This is more of a long shot, but I’m hoping all these people having their kids at home helps gain momentum to better the education system: lower student/teacher ratios, higher teacher pay, more technology, etc.

I have proven very bad at these kind of predictions in the past.

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And Mr. Fortune 500 CEO says "You cost $0.005 per widget more than overseas.  Piss off, I got stock options riding on this and I'm out of here in less than two years any way.  I'll let the next guy worry about supply disruptions."
Or something like that.

This leads into what I really expect to be the lasting economic legacy - corporate governance.

There are going to need to be bailouts and the public isn't going to let the government do that without attaching real strings in relation to worker and consumer protections. Also, the boomers aren't going to be unilaterally leading the recovery with their shortsighted approach of doing everything to maximize short term gain. I think you'll see some sort of shift away from the Jack Welch approach that's dominated the past 30-40 years.

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