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2020-21 Winter weather; bring it on


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Power back on. 109 hours. I almost want to cry a little 

I’m exhausted.  I haven’t been on here in a while.  My volunteer fire department has run well over 40 calls the last few days to include several working structure fires.  Not having water is getting w

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The ercot graph looks horrible for today with forecast demand way exceeding supply. But their demand forecasting has been way off for about 12-18 hours. 

One morbid aspect is that ice related power failures are going to reduce demand. 

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14 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

 

Rumor floating around here that our power outage isn't grid-related but mechanical.  Hoo boy of that's true, we'll see.

 

It’s not a rumor. NG plants went down due to shortage of gas and also pumping stations to get them gas froze up. Other plants are having mechanical problems cause they don’t pay to upkeep in normal low usage months. 
 

Lots of people blame ercot but they can only distribute what they get from suppliers. 
 

Problem is when we deregulated there is no incentive (good or bad) for generating plants to be ready. 

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The ercot graph looks horrible for today with forecast demand way exceeding supply. But their demand forecasting has been way off for about 12-18 hours. 
One morbid aspect is that ice related power failures are going to reduce demand. 

Yeah stop watching the forecast lines. They’re meaningless. Capacity will be horizontal and demand will be kept below that.
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I only lost power on Friday and Saturday and after that I’ve been very lucky. 
My problem, and actually benefit, is the upstairs bathroom lines are in locations that don’t get the benefit of the warmth of the house but if they do break, which they just did, don’t really flood the house either.  The rest of my lines have held up due to still having power now. 
This is happening all over. Nearly every break I've heard of, including my wife's parents, has been in an attic over a garage.
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3 minutes ago, texhorn said:


Yeah stop watching the forecast lines. They’re meaningless. Capacity will be horizontal and demand will be kept below that.

Back on.  I'm not sure how long we were off.  I think about three hours. 

I assume that on the graph the past demand is fairly accurate? 

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12 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

It’s not a rumor. NG plants went down due to shortage of gas and also pumping stations to get them gas froze up. Other plants are having mechanical problems cause they don’t pay to upkeep in normal low usage months. 
 

Lots of people blame ercot but they can only distribute what they get from suppliers. 
 

Problem is when we deregulated there is no incentive (good or bad) for generating plants to be ready. 

Sorry, but this isn't really at all what I was saying. I'm trying to find out whether a power line is down or they purposely switch this off. I've written our mayor and city manager to find out.

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While not as bad as no electricity, the lack of water is Houston is disturbing. Perhaps it’s related to burst pipes using up the pressure but I assume the majority is due to electricity issues.

We need to find ways to not be dependent on the state when they cannot do their job.

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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

While not as bad as no electricity, the lack of water is Houston is disturbing. Perhaps it’s related to burst pipes using up the pressure but I assume the majority is due to electricity issues.

We need to find ways to not be dependent on the state when they cannot do their job.

They?

They is us.

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19 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Sorry, but this isn't really at all what I was saying. I'm trying to find out whether a power line is down or they purposely switch this off. I've written our mayor and city manager to find out.

Sternly, of course?

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My power appears to be back on in Houston - Memorial. I believe it came back on at about 4 am, but I've been warned of rolling black outs. So fingers crossed, and knock on wood. 

Thanks to the Minnesota poster upthread that suggested a Mr. Heater indoor space heater. It won't help much this go around, but I'll be ready next time. In the mean time, I'll use it stay warm on my back porch. 

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6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

54 hours without power. We have adapted to sleeping by the fire but a strong sense of hate has emerged for the state. 

54 hours for us too. Spirits are pretty low in the house and it’s getting fucking cold. Wish I had a fireplace 🙁

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8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Most of us are too smart for government work.

Been working in various levels of gubment for 15 years. 1 in 10 employees actually gives a shit and tries to make a difference. 4 in ten were once that way but the system has beaten them into submission. The last half have always been worthless and should be used for shark chum.

Edited by MissingInAction
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You knew ERCOT was going to find someone else to blame. 
 

Officials for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which manages most of Texas’ grid, said that the primarily cause of the outages on Tuesday appeared to be the state’s natural gas providers. Many are not designed to withstand such low temperatures on equipment or during production.

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1 minute ago, SubliminalHorn said:

54 hours for us too. Spirits are pretty low in the house and it’s getting fucking cold. Wish I had a fireplace 🙁

If you have a gas stove, someone mentioned boiling pots of water and carrying them to various rooms.  Just putting it on the floor between your feet helps.

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Just now, TonyTexas said:

You knew ERCOT was going to find someone else to blame. 
 

Officials for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which manages most of Texas’ grid, said that the primarily cause of the outages on Tuesday appeared to be the state’s natural gas providers. Many are not designed to withstand such low temperatures on equipment or during production.

You got a link for that? Need to bookmark it for some stupid people I know.

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Just now, TonyTexas said:

You knew ERCOT was going to find someone else to blame. 
 

Officials for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which manages most of Texas’ grid, said that the primarily cause of the outages on Tuesday appeared to be the state’s natural gas providers. Many are not designed to withstand such low temperatures on equipment or during production.

Pretty sure that's completely legit.  The major failure here, besides the structure of the market, is the generators.

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Just now, TonyTexas said:

You knew ERCOT was going to find someone else to blame. 
 

Officials for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which manages most of Texas’ grid, said that the primarily cause of the outages on Tuesday appeared to be the state’s natural gas providers. Many are not designed to withstand such low temperatures on equipment or during production.

Got a link? I need something to send all the dipshits blaming green energy and demanding coal plants on every street corner.

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So ERCOT only sets demand prediction and doesn't have any power on the generation side like they do on the grid/transmission side? They were the ones making the calls on blackouts on the grid. They can't order plants back online?

What are the penalties if Austin Energy just says lolfuckoff when they ask? Are those penalties less severe than generators not generating when directed? 

I get physical line failure is on its own here.

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52 degrees in the old hacienda this morning. At least we're not yet in the 40s!

Hauling in 5 gal. buckets of snow to put in a tub to help our toilets not have us condemned by the city of Bee Cave.

But hey, now I have something else for my schedule today besides sitting in my car charging. Such a full life!

Oh, and thankfully they started that thread for discussing the politics and blame, but on this one, **everybody** involved in infrastructure shares blame Everybody. If you don't start from that premise, you're wrong.

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10 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Got a link? I need something to send all the dipshits blaming green energy and demanding coal plants on every street corner.

Post 4015 explains the failure as well as anything.  I think coal capacity suffers from some of the same problems.

There have been several articles explaining that by and large, wind and solar have produced within expectations.  Fundamentally, unlike turbogenerated power (gas, coal, nuclear), they don't have a lot of ability to ramp up power.

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Wife and I decided to escape the New York City winter this year to have an extended visit with our parents in Tyler during January and February. What a treat! 
 

Got indefinite power back (fingers crossed) last night after 48 hours of 45 minute power bursts every 8 hours or so. But woke up to zero water. Fun times

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3 minutes ago, immamac said:

So ERCOT only sets demand prediction and doesn't have any power on the generation side like they do on the grid/transmission side? They were the ones making the calls on blackouts on the grid. They can't order plants back online?

What are the penalties if Austin Energy just says lolfuckoff when they ask? Are those penalties less severe than generators not generating when directed? 

I get physical line failure is on its own here.

I believe that is correct.  From the article at post 4015:

Quote

Rewind time a decade ago, and the headline from the Texas State Senate was clear: "Lack of winterization led to blackouts."

 

At power plants across the state, this 350-page report concluded cold-weather preps were "either inadequate or not adequately followed.”

Fast forward to present day, and little has changed.

“This was a failure from the get go,” UH Energy Professor Ed Hirs said. "It's exactly what happened in 2011, the summertime generators were not available to come online. They haven't been winterized. They haven't been in hot oil. They haven't had antifreeze.”

Why? Hirs and others say no state law was passed making winterization requirements mandatory. Instead, ERCOT, which manages the state power grid, made "recommended steps to prepare generators for extreme weather."

Texas' market is not vertically integrated.  You have ERCOT, which controls interconnection between local and regional grids, which are maintained and operated by entitles like Oncor and Centerpoint and Austin Energy.  Then you have the power generators.  Then you have the retail and wholesale energy sellers.

No one has direct control over anyone else.

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59 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

apparently, the mayor of Colorado City posted this...and then resigned.

 

I'm so confused.  Is he advocating for the widespread adoption of PV/wind/geothermal generation at individual residential/commercial locations, coupled with individual energy storage capacity to provide for a widespread load dampening effect?  Coupled with individual water harvesting and storage?  Or something along the lines of 

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Also, parish.

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Never Ending Blackout (and Rollouts for Some)... (from the song lyrics of Never Ending Story and sung/read to same tune)

“Look around, ice and snow is all u see(eeeeee). No power or water, you’re living the fucking dream (eeeeemm).

Lots of lies and ERCOT mass fuckery. Their poor planning and lame excuses will live on in infamy (eeee).

Citizens stressing out due to lack of heat. What fucking grid am I on? What about my plumbing? (ing)

Local anchors don’t know shit, they are as freaked out as me. And with more of the white shit raining down is there an ending to the never ending blackout (and rollouts for some)? Never ending black out. And rollouts all night long.

They want us to think, our selfishness killed their stupid grid. from the Panhandle down to Brownsville from El Paso to the Gulf, it’s all our asshole faults. Hey ERCOT go fuck yourselves—you fucked around and you’ll find out. 
 

So what lessons have been learned in this state of vast energy (eeeeee). That I will have an $1000 electric bill and state/local  leaders are deflecting the blame to me. Hey you mother fuckers go take a whore’s bath in your sink and may the wrath of millions of Texans be your never ending legacy. (Eeeeee) Fuck you in perpetuity! (Eeee) bunch of fucking fuckwits! Come and fight meeeeee!”
 

———————

Sorry. I’m getting snippy. Lulz. I have it way better than some so I can’t complain too much. But a crackhead could do better with these rollouts or whatever the fuck is happening. 
 

Hope everyone is doing ok this morning. I hope those going on 30 plus hours without power will take up people on the offers for a shower or even just a hot meal or some warmth. So sorry my fellow Surlies are suffering like this and then on top of which we are made to feel like it’s our fucking fault. ❤️💕❤️ Love you guys. Hang in there. 

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Anyone have a plumber rec who isn't backed up for the next year?  I had copper hot water and cold water pipes finally burst this morning even though they were insulated, in an insulated crawl space, and I dripped faucets.  It just got too cold for them - they are probably 40 years old now.  I have called all the usual suspects for emergency service and no luck yet.

 

I shut the water at the street so fast it would make your head spin.  There is a lot of water in that pipe between the street and the house though.

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