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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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Just now, Beau Vine said:
14 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:
For those on scholarship, who pays for it? Not a big deal at major schools but mid majors are gonna struggle paying for extra schollies.

The actual cost of a scholarship is much lower than stated-- tuition is not a marginal cost for a university.

I chuckle every time this comes up.

"Who pays for their tuition?"

So basically you're asking who pays all the money it costs the university for that professor to talk out loud to 25 students instead of 24 students?

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Yall are fucking regarded if you dont think millions of americans have it by now

I think most people are saying the complete opposite of this. What is weird to me is that given we had an 11 day head start on confirmation of our first infection over Italy, shouldn’t we be seeing the deaths that they are already? Like I said, I believe it is wise to cancel the events that have and to extend spring break. I think it is wise to avoid contact with old or sick people for a few weeks if at all possible, but like I said earlier I am cautiously optimistic we aren’t going to see the same level health impact that Italy is seeing. The next 2 weeks will really tell the story.
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4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

To that point, Italy's an open society. When do we start getting at least some social media confirmation of the hospitals being overrun? I figured that would have started last week and be pouring into everyone's feeds by now. 

Purely anecdotal, but a friend/coworker (here in the States) from Italy says she can't reach her brother the doctor by phone or social media. The immediacy with which we expect news is part of the cloud of uncertainty hanging over us, because the truth (whatever it may be) is quite definitely not going to be following any sort of timetable for our convenience.

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6 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

One ply Scott’s brand was all that remained on the shelves of H-E-B Mueller this morning, rejected even by the anuses of the panicked and desperate. 

thats when you know the end of the world is nigh. One ply toilet paper is being bought and used by the Hyde Park crew.

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3 minutes ago, F250 said:

It appears that UIL Baseball isn't shutting down. My son played several times this week and to be fair, there isn't much of a crowd at a high school baseball game.

Our last HS soccer game is tonight, I don't expect playoffs to happen though.

 

Of course, as you mentioned, these are not highly attended events until the final round or two.

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2 minutes ago, pacman said:

Local (Austin) soccer will be largely suspended for the Spring. Should be announced soon, I suspect all youth soccer will follow.

yes.  it's done, just hasn't been made official yet. 

 

edit:  til april 3 anyway.

edit again:  sorry, april 5.

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Just now, Hate said:


I think most people are saying the complete opposite of this. What is weird to me is that given we had an 11 day head start on confirmation of our first infection over Italy, shouldn’t we be seeing the deaths that they are already? Like I said, I believe it is wise to cancel the events that have and to extend spring break. I think it is wise to avoid contact with old or sick people for a few weeks if at all possible, but like I said earlier I am cautiously optimistic we aren’t going to see the same level health impact that Italy is seeing. The next 2 weeks will really tell the story.

I think its likely that our ramp up will be slower because of how spread out we are across the country.  It really boils down to when it hits some of the denser population centers.  NY had a 30% jump in cases overnight.  I think youll see more deaths in the south as it starts worming into some of the megachurches and retirement towns full of olds.  I do think its naive to think just because it hasnt happened yet, that it wont.  There is lots of anectdotal evidence of people trying to get tested without success, hospitals with reported flu symptoms that dont align with positive flu tests, etc.  Like you said, the next couple of weeks will tell the story, because the growth has been pretty consistent across most countries with outbreaks.  Our curve just started behind other countries, regardless of our first official positive test.  

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10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Entirely possible that fatality and hospitalization rates have been overestimated but transmission rate has been underestimated. As for Italy, there were definitely reports of places running out of hospital beds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-patients-lombardy-hospitals/2020/03/12/36041dc6-63ce-11ea-8a8e-5c5336b32760_story.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

I read all or most of these kind of reports, so there's no doubt they're facing heavy loads. I guess I'm just kind of stunned that the events in Italy aren't being widely disseminated across social media for all of the world to see. I don't know, maybe I need to watch CNN/FOX/BBC or something, but I kind of dread doing that.

We'd all have predicted at least one iphone video of carnage in one of the hospitals from one of the patients posted to their Twitter/Insta/FB to have gone fully viral and posted on this thread and a million other places by now. 

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9 minutes ago, Hate said:


I think most people are saying the complete opposite of this. What is weird to me is that given we had an 11 day head start on confirmation of our first infection over Italy, shouldn’t we be seeing the deaths that they are already? Like I said, I believe it is wise to cancel the events that have and to extend spring break. I think it is wise to avoid contact with old or sick people for a few weeks if at all possible, but like I said earlier I am cautiously optimistic we aren’t going to see the same level health impact that Italy is seeing. The next 2 weeks will really tell the story.

if you hit a pocket of olds like Washington did you can get a spike.  maybe that happened in Italy.

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1 minute ago, Skipper said:

Do we have any official data in Texas (or any particular city) illustrating the total number of tests performed and the total number of positives?  

220 Texans is trending on twitter based on numbers from Greg Abbott during his disaster declaration.  220 tests performed in Texas, 39 positive.  75 additional tests being conducted today.  

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For those who couldn't subscribe to the Johns Hopkins newsletter, here's their update for today:

 

Daily updates on the emerging novel coronavirus from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
 
The Center for Health Security will be analyzing and providing updateon the emerging novel coronavirus. If you would like to receive these daily updates, please sign up here and select COVID-19. Additional resources are also available on our website.
 
March 13, 2020
 
Note: although we include case counts to help provide situational awareness to our readers, the numbers are constantly changing. Please refer to the WHO or the public health agencies of affected countries for the latest information.
 
EPI UPDATES The WHO COVID-19 Situation Report shows a total of 125,048 confirmed cases (4,613 deaths) worldwide. There have been 6,729 new cases in the past 24 hours. French Polynesia, Turkey, Honduras, and Cote d’Ivoire have all reported their first COVID-19 cases in the last day. The Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) dashboard is reporting 137,066 cases and 3,337 total deaths as of noon today. Iran’s Ministry of Health reported 1,289 new cases of COVID-19 and 85 new deaths, bringing the total there to 11,364 cases and 514 deaths. The Italian Ministry of Health reported a total of 12,839 cases and 1,016 deaths. The Singapore Ministry of Health reported 200 total cases, of which 103 are currently hospitalized and 11 are in critical condition. Spain reported a total of 4,209 cases and 120 deaths. The US CDC reported a total of 1,215 cases and 36 deaths across 42 states and Washington, DC. Of those cases, 125 are travel-related, 102 are close contacts of known cases, and 988 are still under investigation.
 
The South Korean CDC reported a total of 7,979 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 67 deaths. Epidemiological links have been identified for 79.8% of cases. The most recent report provides an updated breakdown of cases by region, sex, and age group, providing additional insight into the ongoing epidemic. Females represent 61.9% of cases but only 41.8% of deaths. The unadjusted case fatality ratio for individuals aged 80 years and older is 8.30% (21 deaths out of 253 cases), and it is 4.74% for those 70-79 years old and 1.42% for those 60-69 years old. For cases under the age of 60, the case fatality ratio is only 0.12%. Notably, there have been only 2 deaths below the age of 50, despite 4,712 confirmed cases. The epidemic in South Korea has been driven largely by the community around the Shincheonji religious group (4,780 cases; 59.9% of all cases).
 
REPORTS OF HEALTH SYSTEM BURDEN IN ITALY The New York Times reported that Italy’s health system has become rapidly overwhelmed in just 3 weeks, leading to severely limited availability for ventilators and necessitating difficult decisions regarding how ration medical care among patients. The rapid spread and increase in the number of severe cases prompted Italy to enforce radical social distancing measures and to strongly encourage other countries to rapidly implement these measures as well. As reported yesterday, Italy implemented strict quarantine measures nationwide, including closing many businesses. People will still be able to access public areas under certain conditions, but they are encouraged to remain at home and avoid non-essential gatherings. A pre-print recent report from faculty here at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and collaborators also addresses the need for rapid implementation of social distancing measures to slow the spread of epidemic and mitigate health system burden. 
 
SINGAPORE ANNOUNCES NEW RESTRICTIONS Singapore recently expanded its travel restrictions to include visitors with travel history to Italy, France, Spain, and Germany in the last 14 days. These individuals will not be allowed entry or transit through the country, and those already in the country with travel history from those countries will receive stay-at-home notices. Singapore already had travel restrictions in place for China, Iran, and South Korea. 
 
US RESPONSE The US Senate will cancel the recess scheduled to begin today in order to remain in session to draft and debate legislation related to the US COVID-19 response. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell was under pressure, including from fellow Republican Senators, to keep the Senate in session in order to finalize coronavirus legislation. The US House of Representatives and the White House are still negotiating a legislative package that aims to address economic and other effects of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States. Reportedly, the bill is close to being finalized, with hopes that the House of Representatives could vote on it today. Key issues include free coronavirus testing, paid sick leave for COVID-19 patients, and increased support for states to address funding for unemployment and food assistance programs.
 
According to NPR, the Office of Personnel Management now requires agencies to incorporate telework into their continuity of operations plans, reversing a trend of scaling back telework infrastructure among government employees in recent years. 
 
ECONOMIC DECLINES CONTINUE TO BEAR MARKET NPR reported that recent wide-scale stock sell-offs have now led to the start of a “bear market,” which could potentially forecast an impending recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 28% since its high point on February 12. The South China Morning Post also reported similar declines in Asian financial markets.
 
US SCHOOL CLOSURES AND SOCIAL DISTANCING MEASURES Note: for the most up to date information about individual communities, please visit the relevant jurisdiction's website directly. Ohio Governor Mike Dewine announced that all K-12 schools will be closed through April 3, and the state banned all mass gatherings of more than 100 people. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer also announced that all K-12 schools will be closed through April 5. Notably, Governor Whitmer also expanded access to telemedicine statewide, and she called for President Trump to initiate a special enrollment period for the ACA to ensure access to healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic. Maryland Governor Larry Hogan announced closure of all schools through March 27 as well as a series of other response measures, including a ban on gatherings larger than 250 people, the closure of cruise ship terminal in Baltimore, and the activation of the Maryland National Guard to support the response. The announcement comes on the heels of Maryland detecting its first reported instance of community SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Washington, DC, public schools will be closed from March 16 - March 31. Spring Break for these schools has been rescheduled for March 17-23 (formerly scheduled for April), and students will participate in distance learning from March 24-31. Meals will be made available for all students during that period at designated schools throughout the District.
 
In addition to Ohio, Michigan, Maryland, and Washington, DC, several other states have closed schools in certain higher-risk areas. Washington Governor Jay Inslee ordered K-12 schools closed in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties through April 24, affecting 600,000 students in high-risk areas. Schools in San Francisco and part of nearby Contra Costa County in California are also closed, but the state has not mandated closures statewide. Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolfe announced that schools in Montgomery County (13 reported cases) will be closed for 2 weeks. Pennsylvania is also mandating remote work for state employees, and the state is implementing a 10-day paid leave policy for individuals who cannot work remotely. The governors in Georgia and Kentucky both recommended that schools consider closing, but they did not mandate closures.
 
Many government agencies are recommending or mandating that people avoid crowded spaces and large gatherings, particularly if they are exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms, but this may be more difficult (or impossible) for individuals experiencing homelessness. In Washington, DC, the Department of Health Services (DHS) is coordinating with homeless shelters and local healthcare systems to provide support for these individuals who may need to undergo quarantine. DHS Director Laura Zeilinger said that individuals who seek care for symptoms would not be returned to shelters or other congregate settings. DHS is also providing additional assistance to increase access to hand sanitizer and improve hygiene and sanitation at shelters and locations where food is served.
 
Considering the elevated risk to older individuals, some adult long-term care facilities (e.g., nursing homes) are taking additional measures to protect their residents and patients. As seen in Seattle, nursing homes can be high-risk environments for spreading SARS-CoV-2 among a particularly vulnerable population. Nursing homes are beginning to screen and limit visitors in order to reduce their residents’ risk of exposure, and efforts are ongoing to increase the quality and effectiveness of disinfection and hygiene efforts to reduce the risk of transmitting within facilities. Concerns remain, however, about the toll of prolonged isolation from friends and family for residents of these facilities.
 
The NCAA announced yesterday that all remaining winter and spring sports championships, including the Men’s and Women’s basketball national championships (also known as March Madness), are cancelled due to concerns about coronavirus. The NHL announced yesterday that it is suspending the 2019-20 season indefinitely. Major League Baseball, Minor League Baseball, and Major League Soccer all announced a range of cancelations, restrictions, or suspensions in response to COVID-19 as well. Additionally, officials from the Boston Athletic Association and Boston Mayor Martin Walsh announced that the Boston Marathon will be postponed until September 14.
 
CLINICAL COURSE OF COVID-19 A study published on March 11 in The Lancet provides analysis of the progression of the COVID-19 disease in survivors and non-survivors. The study involved 191 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (54 deaths, 137 discharged) in Wuhan, China. Notably, the study describes the timing of various aspects of disease progression in hospitalized patients, including the time from first symptom onset to the onset of various symptoms/conditions, including dyspnoea, sepsis, and ARDS as well as their duration. The article also reports the time to and duration of ICU admission. The study found an increase in the odds of death with increased age, and the mean duration of viral shedding was 20 days from symptom onset in survivors and continuously until death in non-survivors (maximum duration: 37 days). The study found no evidence that antiviral treatment reduces the duration of viral shedding.
 
SPOUSE OF THE PM OF CANADA TESTED POSITIVE Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s wife, Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, according to a statement by the Prime Minister’s Office. At this time, her symptoms do not appear to be serious, and she will be self-isolating for at least 14 days. Prime Minister Trudeau will not be tested at this time because he is not exhibiting symptoms, but he will self-quarantine for 14 days as well. He does not expect this to affect his duties as Prime Minister. There are growing reports of political leaders from various countries becoming infected or exposed to COVID-19.

 

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1 minute ago, TXSG8R said:

220 Texans is trending on twitter based on numbers from Greg Abbott during his disaster declaration.  220 tests performed in Texas, 39 positive.  75 additional tests being conducted today.  

220.  Wow. What a disgrace.

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We should all assume that CV is present everywhere and we have all been exposed (or a family member has)

What we are doing by isolating/social distancing (besides getting really good at X-box) is flattening the curve in terms of people seeking treatment thus avoiding a crash on the hospitals.

I don't believe that testing even matters at this point, that ship sailed long ago. Keep tests for hospitals for confirmation but at this point if people can

A) actually follow their self-quarantine protocol vs boarding planes for Palm Springs or driving to Bee Caves

B) Not flood ER with sniffles & headaches

C) Stay the fuck home vs going out

Hopefully we can stop the exponential growth of people infected and buy some time for a vaccine or something to emerge.

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11 minutes ago, Hate said:


I think most people are saying the complete opposite of this. What is weird to me is that given we had an 11 day head start on confirmation of our first infection over Italy, shouldn’t we be seeing the deaths that they are already? Like I said, I believe it is wise to cancel the events that have and to extend spring break. I think it is wise to avoid contact with old or sick people for a few weeks if at all possible, but like I said earlier I am cautiously optimistic we aren’t going to see the same level health impact that Italy is seeing. The next 2 weeks will really tell the story.

we are less dense than Italy, but the graphs of new cases are very similar. we are about a week and a half behind italy, but on the same trendline

 

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4 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

220 Texans is trending on twitter based on numbers from Greg Abbott during his disaster declaration.  220 tests performed in Texas, 39 positive.  75 additional tests being conducted today.  

220, 221. Whatever it takes.

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5 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Everyone laughed at me when I started prepping a month ago. Everyone laughed at me when I bought a bidet. My neighbor laughed when he saw me hauling in 20 pound bags of dog food.

Who's laughing now, motherfuckers?

Yep, family thought it weird that we prepped almost 3 weeks ago.  Now they are bitching that they can’t find stuff and are worried they will have to keep going out everyday checking multiple stores.   

It’s called “suck it up, eat the ramen, spaghetti, and rice and hamburger helper and everything else you already have, and wait a week for things to die down, and don’t panic because I’ve seen your pantry and freezer in the garage, and you’ve got a shitload of food already and half a cow in the freezer.”

I have seen the “you’re just posting fake news” crowd dwindle now that many more people realize it’s here and that it’s not the flu. 

I’ve also sent articles about Italy, and that clip around where the head of Medicare/Medicaid, who is on the cv task force, would not answer questions about ICUs and ventilators, to some of my older relatives.  

Basically “hey guys, there’s a shortage of this stuff that will not be made up rapidly, so your goal should be avoiding getting to that point in the first place.”

Some of these older folks already have some social distancing going  on already, because they spend their days puttering around in the garden, doing crafts, watching TV, etc. (plus some have mobility issues) so it shouldn’t be much of a stretch for them.  

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1 minute ago, Guadaloopy said:

Yeah... I’m not getting the consternation about testing now.  At this point, what does it matter?   

Stages of grief. For folk who haven't moved along far enough, it would be comforting.

As a practical matter, though... yeah. We're well past the point at which they would have been useful.

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220.  Wow. What a disgrace.

I’m trying to wrap my mind around that level of inefficiency at this point in time.

 

I think that I’m on the tail end of whatever I came down with, but holy shit it was bad. Went a little over 72 hours without a bite to eat. Thank god for simple water.

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15 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I think its likely that our ramp up will be slower because of how spread out we are across the country.  It really boils down to when it hits some of the denser population centers.  NY had a 30% jump in cases overnight.  I think youll see more deaths in the south as it starts worming into some of the megachurches and retirement towns full of olds.  I do think its naive to think just because it hasnt happened yet, that it wont.  There is lots of anectdotal evidence of people trying to get tested without success, hospitals with reported flu symptoms that dont align with positive flu tests, etc.  Like you said, the next couple of weeks will tell the story, because the growth has been pretty consistent across most countries with outbreaks.  Our curve just started behind other countries, regardless of our first official positive test.  

I'm not being argumentative, but I don't understand the thought that we are two weeks behind any other country.  Our first positive test was January 20.  it's virtually impossible that the virus wasn't here at the latest by December 31 and most likely sooner.  With it being winter time and symptoms often being similar to a strong cold, there is virtually no possible way that the virus wasn't spreading unknowingly.  Like I said, I'm not trying to contradict the experts but I am trying to understand why we aren't experiencing what China and Italy exeperienced and are experiencing given that we've most likely had the virus just as long as those countries have (China of course a few weeks earlier).

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1 hour ago, achooloco said:

Describes my parents In Austin. Sigh. Not sure how I can convince my dad to stop going to fucking church  Or stations of the cross but here we are. Anyway the diocese will do the right thing and cancel services this wknd?

AbleIndelibleBasilisk-size_restricted.gi

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12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

I have seen the “you’re just posting fake news” crowd dwindle now

you lucky sob

 

i am not seeing the same enlightenment at all...

"this is ridiculous, only people dying are 50+ with respiratory issues!"

okay then..idiot

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1 minute ago, Hate said:

I'm not being argumentative, but I don't understand the thought that we are two weeks behind any other country.  Our first positive test was January 20.  it's virtually impossible that the virus wasn't here at the latest by December 31 and most likely sooner.  With it being winter time and symptoms often being similar to a strong cold, there is virtually no possible way that the virus wasn't spreading unknowingly.  Like I said, I'm not trying to contradict the experts but I am trying to understand why we aren't experiencing what China and Italy exeperienced and are experiencing given that we've most likely had the virus just as long as those countries have (China of course a few weeks earlier).

The virus isn't going to rip through all countries at the same speed.  Despite the virus being present here really early we have things working in our advantage like being less population dense, and I guess possibly being less polluted.

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1 minute ago, pacman said:

you lucky sob

 

i am not seeing the same enlightenment at all...

"who cares, only people dying are 50+ with respiratory issues!"

okay then..idiot

We’ve got plenty of vaping teens whose respiratory systems are compromised to some degree.

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17 minutes ago, pacman said:

we are less dense than Italy, but the graphs of new cases are very similar. we are about a week and a half behind italy, but on the same trendline

 

I heard somewhere that Italy has the jump on everyone because they had immigrated a bunch of Chinese factory workers from Wuhan.  We started with a couple travelers spread out.  They imported the disease en masse.

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27 minutes ago, F250 said:

It appears that UIL Baseball isn't shutting down. My son played several times this week and to be fair, there isn't much of a crowd at a high school baseball game.

I got an email 2 hours ago from  the Austin High Baseball booster club that AISD has postponed all Athletic Activities.

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4 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Costco Cedar Park 30 minutes before opening, fuck this shit I went home.

c5e8d1b3063112e0b28b0c0e27494b36.jpg

Seems dumb to insist on going to Costco and wait forever in line like that, and spend 3 times as much time inside where there's likely someone infected in there pumping out droplets that can hang in the air for up to 3 hours.  Could go to many other grocery stores without near the wait and exposure risk.  Stand in line to save $10, but increase the risk of losing 100 times that in lost wages or copays if they get sick.

Though I did go to HEB a couple of hours ago to get rotisserie chicken.  Everything funneled to a single line to reach the checkouts (awesome job of reverse social distancing...), which stretched down the center aisle all the way to the back of the store.  But it moved fast, stood in line less than 5 minutes.  Painless, except for the moron in his 60's that walked by and coughed without covering.  Was impressed that 3 persons immediately scolded him.  It seems like most people are taking this seriously and more precautions, despite what the thread's half dozen panic ninnies keep screaming. 

Heard on the BBC radio that the Lombardy region of Italy may have peaked, no new cases today (if I heard right.)

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30 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Do we have any official data in Texas (or any particular city) illustrating the total number of tests performed and the total number of positives?  

220 test

39 positive

75 in the process Of being tested

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4 hours ago, HoustonFrog said:

So where can we get accurate up to date comprehensive numbers?

Seems like the Johns Hopkins thing is busted

These are well-sourced.   The second one is running ahead of the first/updating more, and when you scroll down, it links you to the state websites.   It also has some visual representations. 

https://ncov2019.live

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com

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My fucking moron 75y/o MIL with a pretty drastic history of lung problems went to the DMV yesterday to get her handicap sticker for her car she doesn’t drive. It’s cool tho cuz she wore gloves and a useless 3M safety mask. i have been warning them about this since late Jan. 

JFC. 

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1 minute ago, Doc Reeves said:

My fucking moron 75y/o MIL with a pretty drastic history of lung problems went to the DMV yesterday to get her handicap sticker for her car she doesn’t drive. It’s cool tho cuz she wore gloves and a useless 3M safety mask. i have been warning them about this since late Jan. 

JFC. 

This is where I think testing could still be really beneficial.  They are still large chunks of the population who simply don't know understand the magnitude because of just a handful of positives.

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3 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Seems dumb to insist on going to Costco and wait forever in line like that, and spend 3 times as much time inside where there's likely someone infected in there pumping out droplets that can hang in the air for up to 3 hours. 

exactly, i am so confused by social isolation and hordes of people at the grocery store.

 

like others mentioned, i went to the one by campus without issue and the fiesta on i35 was fine as well

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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