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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
33 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

All spent on border-related ads pandering to the mythical "moderate Republicans" that will never even consider voting for his bland ass.

 

He's running as a Republican, bashing the Biden/Harris border disaster. fuck him and fuck ted cruz.

Posted

Could having this guy on the ballot for Governor put Harris over the top in NC?

Trump won it 49.9 to 48.6 by 74,483 votes. Between Trump fatigue, potential increase in black voter turnout and this guy, it seems like it could create a perfect storm in NC.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

“The man enslaved by wealth can never be honest”

” the quote means that a person who is controlled by their desire for wealth will never be truly honest, as their actions and values are driven by greed rather than integrity.”

 

” the explanation means that the above quote is discussing somebody that is controlled by money, and the belief that money ends up being their driving force instead of honesty or other good values”

 

” this illustration is provided to explain that the quote is directed towards people whose motivations are primarily in material goods, as opposed to a moral center directed towards betterment.”

Hahaha, I was about to ask who needs this quote broken down and explained to them any further.

Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

OK, all that would be fine if he were saving it for some late September/October push, but where on earth has he spent so much the money he's raised to this point?  Do you see $30mm worth of campaigning somewhere?
image.thumb.png.dbe1d9708be2f13d44d9a7dc2b227416.png

The real answer is there's a consulting team re-enacting Jimbo's contract.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Regarding Allred's campaign:  when I was a kid my father had a very good friend who was witty and charismatic and also an alcoholic.  His name was Mark.  Mark's dad had some land near Brownwood and my dad and Mark and I would go dove hunting on it.  Because of his drinking, Mark wasn't in real good physical shape and also he wasn't the world's best shot, but he wasn't a dangerous drunk. 

 

Anyway, my dad and I were out walking through the fields but Mark liked to hang around the stock tank because the doves would fly in, land, and he wouldn't have to try to shoot them on the wing.  He explained to us that his idea was that he "liked to hit 'em while they are in park."    I get the feeling that that's Allred's strategy. He knows that Cruz's support is baked in and that there's nothing he can do to change it. There's also likely nothing he could have done in the last few months to raise his own support. I mean, if Spanish-speaking Beto couldn't win while hitting every single county, football field, Dairy Queen etc ... in the state, how's Allred going to win?  So Allred's just going to hang around the rim, rope-a-dope a complacent Cruz, unleash a massive media blitz with about seven weeks left, and ride a Kamala/Walz tide in, hoping to hit Cruz while he's in park.  

 

I thought this story was going to have a very different ending. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

 

He's running as a Republican, bashing the Biden/Harris border disaster. fuck him and fuck ted cruz.

Allred’s messaging reminds me of the 1980’s SNL Texas gubernatorial ad spoofs where the candidates all bragged that they would execute more prisoners than their opponents. 

Edited by BrickHorn
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Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

I actually have had a sneaky suspicion that if Harris overperforms 2020 (i.e., wins the PV by 5+), Allred could end up sneaking by Cruz without doing anything at all. 

The negative opinions of Ted Cruz are so baked in from Cruz's presidential run in 2016, almost losing in 2018, fleeing for Cancun during the freeze, that a really milquetoast candidate who didn't manage to piss off too many Texans (*cough* Beto's gun comments in 2020) could just sneak by while doing nothing precisely because Cruz is so unlikeable that he will underperform the top of the ticket for a third straight cycle. 

Rope-a-dope and hope.

I mean, it’s a strategy I guess.

A democrat essentially sneaking into a senate seat in Texas would be something.

It would be a fun footnote to history. Ted Cruz was so unlikeable that he lost to a guy who didn’t really even run a campaign.

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Posted
25 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

My name isn’t Pamela, and I’ve had the same # since 9/11. But thanks Elaine!

 

IMG_0239.png

may want to delete so a buncha surly dudes don't share your number with cat facts or something.  And read your damn text messages

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

may want to delete so a buncha surly dudes don't share your number with cat facts or something.  And read your damn text messages

the number is the sender's number, not the poster.   I get a lot of dem texts, and they often come from a (202) number which is D.C.

Edited by Gil Bang
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Posted

https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/

Summary - trend suggest about D+3 or 4 this year downballot, which is both enough to win the presidency and the House, with the Senate being lean R (need to be about +5 for the Senate to be a tossup under this map)

unnamed-5.png

 

For example, in 2012, Washington as a whole had a D +4 vote in the House primary. In 2016, that number ballooned to D +15.5. But in non-urban Washington, Democrats collapsed, as the area went from R +4 to R +9.5. The primary numbers in non-urban Washington were the canary in the coal mine, predicting that Clinton would collapse in the Midwest relative to Obama, even as she made gains in highly educated urban areas like Seattle and suburban Atlanta.

There’s another interesting wrinkle in this. Non-urban Washington hasn’t just tracked the Midwest — it has consistently predicted the national environment as a whole. This part of the state has been roughly 7–10% to the right of the eventual national House vote. When accounting for the Third and Fourth Congressional Districts’ swath of Democratic votes for GOP incumbents due to their votes to impeach Donald Trump in 2022, the numbers likely have an even more consistent range.

AD_4nXdgcJU16cV42-tS3OBwVejspurbjvYKaFPMV5SPfoAcPzyEb_xsc0t_wI6sSKLlViE1LPGm-dTfku2y28EEvYt-UACvnVabS9p38BxQ2aYVh8sWLOytuqgQKui-ktg1m6ThhgU6NzaySX-rgTUS8-wOqJsicAVCQY1OEkZ6?key=jjZpKiL1U3vPgi9OkFtcOA

On balance, the results this year contain good news for Democrats. Currently, non-urban Washington is voting R +5.5, about 1.3% more Democratic than how the area voted in 2020, and that points to a modestly bluer down-ballot environment this time around.

This leftward shift is important for two reasons: first, it shows that there was a blueshift across the state, not just limited to the high-turnout liberals of the Seattle metro. Secondly, because the more Midwestern-resembling areas of the state had modest leftward movement, observers could read it as a potential sign of a strong Democratic performance in the non-urban North.

That would be in line with most of the polling we’ve observed, where Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are now voting closer to the national popular vote than they did in 2020. And if the Washington primary’s portents continue to stay true, marginal leftward shifts in more evenly divided and less educated areas such as the Midwest should hold water for Democrats.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

He has done nothing to expand his electorate. Just base red meat. 

Which is still like 46-48 percent. I really just don't get it, even the biggest conservative and biggest asshole should see this guy as the clown that he is, fake alpha, fake conservative, fake everything. He's the biggest bitch maid beta to ever fuck around.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted

These people were in hand to hand combat with police officers, for hours. Just for starters.

I wonder if Trump’s advisers literally want to kill him.

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Posted
Just now, Red Five said:

These people were in hand to hand combat with police officers, for hours. Just for starters.

I wonder if Trump’s advisers literally want to kill him.

his own supporters do, so probably

Posted
his own supporters do, so probably

It’s just….. He’s holding a fucking benefit for people who attacked police officers who were DEFENDING OUR CAPITOL.

Every once in a while you’re hit with something that seems too far fetched even for our simulation. Should lead off every newscast/should lose 95% of his support overnight, etc.
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Posted
1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:

Good lord. Fox and Friends served up a meatball right down the middle of the plate and Trump whiffed.

 

"I read Project 2025. Some good stuff.  Some very good stuff.  Some maybe not so good stuff.  I have no idea what Project 2025 is."

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Posted
1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:

Good lord. Fox and Friends served up a meatball right down the middle of the plate and Trump whiffed.

 

With all the scrutiny on Secret Service, I'm sure they love the unplanned stroll into a crowd.  

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Red Five said:


It’s just….. He’s holding a fucking benefit for people who attacked police officers who were DEFENDING OUR CAPITOL.

Every once in a while you’re hit with something that seems too far fetched even for our simulation. Should lead off every newscast/should lose 95% of his support overnight, etc.

“Here’s why that’s bad for Kamala Harris”

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Posted
25 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Okay…

Or she knew who he was and was trying to stay professional rather than telling him to fuck off.  

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Posted
1 hour ago, TexEx15 said:

He has done nothing to expand his electorate. Just base red meat. 

between this and his new crypto scam service, I'm guessing that he sees his only options as president or jail&bankrupt.

Posted (edited)

High Point - 47-47 tie in NC

Insider Advantage (Hannity’s polling outfit) - 46.6 Trump, 46 Harris in PA. Really had to go all the way out to decimal points to give their boy a lead 

IA was off by 7 points to the right in 2022 in the PA senate race - had Oz +2 and he lost by 5

Edited by Js1
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