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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

I'll paste the FL SOS data here:

Quote

Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation

Webpage last updated: September 10, 2024.

Totals reflect the number of active registered voters in the State of Florida.

Data as of August 31, 2024.

Year Republican Party of Florida Florida Democratic Party Minor Parties No Party Affiliation Total
2024

5,385,554

4,359,354

390,220

3,544,576

13,679,704

2023 5,141,848 4,362,147 317,607 3,528,807 13,350,409
2022 5,312,122 4,928,168 263,790 4,032,731 14,536,811
2021 5,123,799 5,080,697 253,843 3,829,372 14,287,711
2020 5,218,739 5,315,954 231,246 3,799,799 14,565,738
2019 4,761,405 4,986,520 147,546 3,641,359 13,536,830
2018 4,718,720 4,975,895 113,489 3,588,518 13,396,622
2017 4,544,708 4,807,950 65,526 3,449,005 12,867,189

 

Posted
28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

FL gets called pretty quickly on election night, regardless of outcome. So if we see a suburbs continue to shift left in places like Orlando and Tampa and Miami shift left, it bodes well for the rest of the night.

Of course, the longer they can’t call Florida (even if it’s eventually a Trump win, the better everyone should feel. He won FL by 3.3 and it was called at 11:30pm

The abortion referendum will say more about Florida than Trump. Agree that the later it gets before Florida gets called, the better everyone is going to feel. 

Posted
48 minutes ago, tx ind said:

If we get NC and PA called early the shitposting coming from Truth Social will be epic

PA wil never be called early because they don’t start counting mail in ballots until after polls close. 

10 minutes ago, royiv said:

I can’t imagine being locked in a cockpit with those guys for hours on end. Godspeed to you for getting your passengers to their destination safely without choking out your copilot.

He can still choke out a co pilot and get the people safely to their destination. 

Also, someone is taking a poll seriously from a polling outfit called Trump University?

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Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

PA wil never be called early because they don’t start counting mail in ballots until after polls close. 

He can still choke out a co pilot and get the people safely to their destination. 

What is kamamala wins without even needing the mail ins. 

Posted
Just now, immamac said:

What is kamamala wins without even needing the mail ins. 

That would defy literally every poll that has been taken to date. They’d all have to have been off by orders of magnitude for them to be able to call it early without the million plus mail in ballots. Even if the pollsters are all herding, that seems…pretty fucking unlikely. 
 

Like I’m about to fuck Sydney Sweeney unlikely. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

PA wil never be called early because they don’t start counting mail in ballots until after polls close. 

Reminder - polling shows the in-person/mail split in 2024 will be closer to 75/25 overall, like 2022, which had Fetterman called the winner a little after midnight CT.  It will not be like 2020, which dragged for quite a while. 

If it is a 2020-style close race, it could drag into Wednesday, but the volume of mail will not the same as 2020.  If Kamala wins by 3-5, it likely could be called on Election Night (or just past the day turning)

Edited by Js1
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Reminder - polling shows the in-person/mail split in 2024 will be closer to 75/25 overall, like 2022, which had Fetterman called the winner a little after midnight CT.  It will not be like 2020, which dragged for quite a while. 

If it is a 2020-style close race, it could drag into Wednesday, but the volume of mail will not the same as 2020.  If Kamala wins by 3-5, it likely could be called on Election Night (or just past the day turning)

I think turnout compared to fetterman in an off year will make a just after midnight call unlikely, even if everything else is similar. 
 

 

Posted
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That would defy literally every poll that has been taken to date. They’d all have to have been off by orders of magnitude for them to be able to call it early without the million plus mail in ballots. Even if the pollsters are all herding, that seems…pretty fucking unlikely. 
 

Like I’m about to fuck Sydney Sweeney unlikely. 

The pollsters have 0 idea what turnout will be. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, immamac said:

The pollsters have 0 idea what turnout will be. 

I think they know it’s going to be big, like we do. Which also favors delays, polls staying open later, etc. which I think also delays the state being called. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
Posted
2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think turnout compared to fetterman in an off year will make a just after midnight call unlikely, even if everything else is similar. 
 

 

I'm just telling you - if 3/4ths of the voting will be in-person this year, compared to mail, the mail will count a lot fucking faster. 

It was 2.6m mail-in ballots returned in 2020 (out of 3m requested) - 40% of the total votes.  If 7m people vote again and only 1/4 of them vote by mail, there's only 1.75m mail-in ballots to count.  2022 was just under 1.2m mail ballots to count and they had a winner declared on Election Night

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Posted
15 hours ago, F250 said:

Trump controls the MAGA mob, he isn't going anywhere. The GOP will have to live with Trump.

It's like when that Sports Store owner handed over control to Tony in the Sopranos.

d67e1d40-0085-444a-8068-32dd7c04f535-tex

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Posted

It is a good ad though.

They should make one that is 60 seconds of Dotard saying the most ridiculous, hateful things, and end it with “Seriously America? wtf.”

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Posted
4 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Go fuck yourselves, Firefighters.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/fire-fighters-union-declines-presidential-endorsement-00182372

Vice President Kamala Harris suffered a blow Thursday as the union representing more than 300,000 career firefighters and emergency responders declined to make a presidential endorsement, two weeks after the International Brotherhood of Teamsters made a similar decision.

Leaders of the International Association of Fire Fighters gathered this week and determined “by a margin of 1.2%” against picking a candidate, according to General President Edward Kelly.

Kamala got the Foo Fighters endorsement though, right?

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Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Barack Obama Point GIF by Obama

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obama-blitz-campaign-trail-harris-final-weeks-campaign/story?id=114491830&cid=social_twitter_abcn

Former President Barack Obama will hit the campaign trail for Vice President Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz starting next Thursday, Oct. 10, through election day, according to a senior campaign official.

The first stop will be in Pennsylvania in the Pittsburgh area before Obama embarks on a campaign blitz across the battleground states in the final 27 days.

He's got quite the hole to dig himself out of in my eyes. After all, he got us into this mess. Elected While Black, then got all uppity and made fun of a thin-skinned, "rich", white man.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Underdog said:

And free $10k Mastercard waiting for them as well. 

I don't think that immigrants want Mastercards...

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Posted
6 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

He's got quite the hole to dig himself out of in my eyes. After all, he got us into this mess. Elected While Black, then got all uppity and made fun of a thin-skinned, "rich", white man.

 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

@cactusflinthead @Gil Bang

Allred all day although I wouldn’t put Cruz in the Trump category. 

I have no idea what Brisket’s questions are. 

im not sure what past positions you speak of. 

My final straw with Trump?  I never voted for him. Ever since I developed Trump consciousness, I did not like him. I do not vote for substandard candidates (that later prove themselves to be unfit traitors). Didn’t in ‘16, ‘20, and won’t in a month. 

The only reason Cruz isn't in the same category as Trump is that he's not as successful and lacks any pride. Other than that he's the same thing exactly. Doesn't care about anyone but himself and will try to stay in power by any means necessary. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t have time to try to corroborate Wasserman’s data, but is he suggesting that 800k Floridians who were registered Dems have left Florida or otherwise not registered for this election?  That doesn’t pass the smell test.  

Florida purged democrats from their voter rolls

Posted

Well obviously unemployment is down because everyone is anticipating Trump winning and those delicious tariffs making us money

September jobs report crushes expectations as US economy adds 254,000 jobs, unemployment rate falls to 4.1%

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-crushes-expectations-as-us-economy-adds-254000-jobs-unemployment-rate-falls-to-41-123503927.html

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, wood said:

Yeah I'm a retired firefighter and I'm pissed, too. I'm starting the process to end my union dues right now. Fuck that shit. BTW, they don't ask the firefighters who we  want to back. They never have. For my entire career they've backed the Democratic candidate. Why they chose to sit this one out is mind-boggling. 

What union benefits do retired get for their dues?

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Posted

 

For someone like me that wants to compare to previous elections to draw inference about what is going to happen this year, this is a good reminder that the electorate is shifting.  

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Posted
48 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

have no idea what Brisket’s questions are

No they were your questions. It was a couple of names ago. I don't expect you to remember questioning whether Brisket ever voted for a GOP candidate or the dismissal of him working on campaigns. 

Glad to hear you're voting for Allred.

Posted
2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Those can't be new registrations. That would be over half the population of the state. Those numbers don't make sense unless Florida simply removed 700k democratic voters from the rolls. 

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Not sure he’d incite a riot. They’re in different categories. I abhor Cruz. Our daughters go to the same camp so I’m exposed to him for a day every summer. He’s very aloof and is basically a fat dork. One of his daughters got booted from the camp a few years ago because she’s fucked up. I give Cruz credit for not making a big stink about it, or pulling his other daughter from camp. I fully expected him to do both. 

Can’t believe I’m saying this but I agree with Rex. Cruz is a piece of shit no doubt, but I probably wouldn’t have legitimate concern that he would launch a war if somebody tweets something mean about him. Hell, we already know you can trash his wife and he’ll roll over like a bitch. 

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Posted

That was covered by my statement that he lacks pride. But he absolutely would go along with someone else's plan to do that kind of thing in his name, he just wouldn't come up with it himself. 

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