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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This whole news line is absurd.  Harris has been fucking living in the upper midewest for the last 3 months. If there is a chance that Allred can beat Cruz, you can burn 12 hours to explore it. Becuase Tester is going to lose. There's potentially multiple supreme court seats riding on it.  You gotta throw the deep ball occasionally.  You just don't want to do it on every play at the expense of the run game like Clinton did. 

Yep. She’s been all over the 7 swing states unless it’s a fundraiser in NY/CA. One evening in Houston is not at the level of Hillary completely ignoring Wisconsin 

Posted
8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Everybody is panicking, of course. That's what Democrats do. "Weak with Latinos. Weak with Black Men....etc."

But what they are doing with their money is a different story. 

 

The problem is nobody knows what the "Durrrr..both sides.....I HATE POLITICS......But I'm gonna vote!!!!" contingent is going to do. 

Come on dude. I think we all knoe EXACTLY what that contingent is going to do...

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This whole news line is absurd.  Harris has been fucking living in the upper midewest for the last 3 months. If there is a chance that Allred can beat Cruz, you can burn 12 hours to explore it. Becuase Tester is going to lose. There's potentially multiple supreme court seats riding on it.  You gotta throw the deep ball occasionally.  You just don't want to do it on every play at the expense of the run game like Clinton did. 

Is that deep ball being thrown by Quinn Ewers?

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Posted
10 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Faulkner is far from an unbiased questioner. Fox has her on because she’s African American and hates the Dems. Or hates the Dem for the money. I’ve watched her shows and I’ve never seen a fair question or comment out of her mouth.

There is zero chance that I could prove, via paperwork, my first couple of pre-college grad jobs. There are SS reports that show I have income but the source (employer) isn’t listed. For sentimental reasons, I wish I had kept the paystub just to remind myself how far I’ve come. I think the first job was $3.85/hr but could be slightly off.

Exactly. Absence of proof is not proof of absence, and McDonald's acknowledged they don't keep records that far back. Sometimes, especially back then, if you made less than x amount, you didn't even have to file a tax return. I worked numerous jobs while at UT from 1983-89. Having to prove now that I worked at any one of them would be pretty difficult.

But Trump said it, like he says so many things, so voila ... another 'gotcha' moment for the rubes out there.

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Posted
56 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Well, straight males/men in general—something is just wrong. The White Gays aren’t far behind.

 

Plenty of well off white gays going that direction, true.  Free Will isn't a thing...all I can think of. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, wood said:

Exactly. Absence of proof is not proof of absence, and McDonald's acknowledged they don't keep records that far back. Sometimes, especially back then, if you made less than x amount, you didn't even have to file a tax return. I worked numerous jobs while at UT from 1983-89. Having to prove now that I worked at any one of them would be pretty difficult.

But Trump said it, like he says so many things, so voila ... another 'gotcha' moment for the rubes out there.

If it was the early 80s, she was probably still on her mom's taxes. My mom claimed me until the last possible year, which used to drive me crazy because I was eligible for the EITC a year or two in the 90s because I worked in kitchens during summer/school and was under the limit.  Not being able to recoup some FICA each year was a kick in the nuts. 

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You laugh, but this board is going to be as bad as the football one was Saturday night, except for the next 2 weeks. 

 

 

“Now…imagine we lose to Vanderbilt”

 

 

image.jpeg.4cd3a7db3d1d2bc94e67b12a003d0832.jpeg

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Posted
3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Would Trump declaring war on Iran qualify under the umbrella of "helping Iran to be free?" That's an honest question, by the way. 

No, and that's why I think it's extremely stupid some Iranians support him and I am embarrassed by it. War may lead to a free Iran but after many innocent lives lost which no one wants.

What they don't understand is neither party cares about Iran. Trump doing things like ordering the assassination of the general was for his own benefit not to help Iranians. He even came out the other day and said he is not interested in regime change, and yet they will vote for him. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Plenty of well off white gays going that direction, true.  Free Will isn't a thing...all I can think of. 

Well, holy fuck, like half the GOP staff are gayer than Cody Rigsby. 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Everybody is panicking, of course. That's what Democrats do. "Weak with Latinos. Weak with Black Men....etc."

But what they are doing with their money is a different story. 

 

The problem is nobody knows what the "Durrrr..both sides.....I HATE POLITICS......But I'm gonna vote!!!!" contingent is going to do. 

The problem with modern polling is that it filters for people who want to answer political questions.  Everyone else might as well be dark matter: we know it's there, we know it outweighs the known universe, but we have no idea what it actually is.  

 

Edit to remove response on Iran.

Edited by Tuco
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Posted
12 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This whole news line is absurd.  Harris has been fucking living in the upper midewest for the last 3 months. If there is a chance that Allred can beat Cruz, you can burn 12 hours to explore it. Becuase Tester is going to lose. There's potentially multiple supreme court seats riding on it.  You gotta throw the deep ball occasionally.  You just don't want to do it on every play at the expense of the run game like Clinton did. 

Equivalent of taking a shot at the end zone on 1st down from the opponent 40. 

 

39 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Another point about the acknowledged flaws of 538's analysis is that they correctly predicted Biden AND had him 89-11 to win. They were right but a couple of thousands votes here and there, Trump would have won. In addition, they and the polls were completely wrong about 2016.

Because of those flaws, I could see the idea that unless 538 is 100-0 or 99-1, it's too close to call given the margins of error.

How many of those 538 sims did Trump win the popular vote? Those have got to be thrown out.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Everybody is panicking, of course. That's what Democrats do. "Weak with Latinos. Weak with Black Men....etc."

But what they are doing with their money is a different story. 

 

The problem is nobody knows what the "Durrrr..both sides.....I HATE POLITICS......But I'm gonna vote!!!!" contingent is going to do. 

It's fair to say that Harris is not doing as well with certain demographics compared to previous election cycles but I question how many of those in changing voting patterns really showed up to vote before or now. Feels more like talk than action for most.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

If it was the early 80s, she was probably still on her mom's taxes. My mom claimed me until the last possible year, which used to drive me crazy because I was eligible for the EITC a year or two in the 90s because I worked in kitchens during summer/school and was under the limit.  Not being able to recoup some FICA each year was a kick in the nuts. 

Good point. I forgot about that. IIRC Kamala's McDonald's job was in 1983, same year I started at UT (the real one, not Tennessee).

Posted
4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's fair to say that Harris is not doing as well with certain demographics compared to previous election cycles but I question how many of those in changing voting patterns really showed up to vote before or now. Feels more like talk than action for most.

I have seen more than a few anecdotes of some young male proclaiming they were voting for Trump and then they weren't registered to vote and missed the deadline.

Which, LOL

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Posted
51 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In addition, they and the polls were completely wrong about 2016.


538 gave Trump a 1-3 chance in 2016 which was wayyyyyy better than every other model. 1 in 3 chances win all the time. Just watch college football this Saturday. 

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Posted
34 minutes ago, thepop said:

Now I'm not a moron in a cult so i'm not voting for Trump, but generally speaking it would benefit me to vote republican if I was solely focused on helping Iran be free.

This actually kind of makes my point. To think Republicans give a fuck about helping Iran being free is ridiculous. The Persians I know (including family) think Trump might be crazy enough to make it happen, and it's because of his authoritarian tendencies. It's desperate wishcasting that makes zero sense. 

 

 

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Posted
Just now, Firemans4Horn said:


538 gave Trump a 1-3 chance in 2016 which was wayyyyyy better than every other model. 1 in 3 chances win all the time. Just watch college football this Saturday. 

And the pollsters realized they weren't weighing correctly and adjusted accordingly after 2016.

Posted

On the whole "did she work at McDonalds" she may have a slight misremembering of the exact details. If she completely made up working at a burger joint if not McDonalds, that's wrong. If she can't remember all of the details, it's understandable.

Take Trump where he claims that he was one of the best high school baseball players in the state of NY. According to him, he even went to a pro tryout alongside future hall-of-famer, Willie McCovey. Sounds impressive.  Investigations showed that Trump batted <.150 in high school but guess what, there are missing box scores from the 60s.  I doubt the best player in NY batted that low. Perhaps his batting average was north of .150.  And as for trying out alongside McCovey, McCovey was already in his 5th year in the MLB when Trump was a senior. So unless Trump tried out for the majors while in junior high, he's completely lying about the situation.

As always Trump's lies are so numerous that we forget how many small lies he's told over the years.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

Because Trump drives the convo, because people refuse to just ignore him. 

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Posted

Couple things:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.
 

Thing two: Over the last four elections,  national polling averages have been off ~3 points (which isn’t much) and swing state polls have missed by 3-4.  In 2008 and 2012, Obama overperformed. In 2016 and 2020, Trump overperformed.

in BOTH cases the miss largely comes down to assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. 
So the assessment at this stage boils down to:

1) are the polls exactly right?

2) if not, who is being under/over weighted in the models, and 

3) who do they vote for?

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

Very much this. It’s so damn silly.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.

Stein will def overperform Harris, but I'm guessing Robinson is suffering from the same thing Trump did after Access Hollywood.  

He's definitely going to lose, probably by 7-10 points, but probably a good chunk of people just don't want to admit to voting for him. But they will. 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

On the whole "did she work at McDonalds" she may have a slight misremembering of the exact details. If she completely made up working at a burger joint if not McDonalds, that's wrong. If she can't remember all of the details, it's understandable.

Take Trump where he claims that he was one of the best high school baseball players in the state of NY. According to him, he even went to a pro tryout alongside future hall-of-famer, Willie McCovey. Sounds impressive.  Investigations showed that Trump batted <.150 in high school but guess what, there are missing box scores from the 60s.  I doubt the best player in NY batted that low. Perhaps his batting average was north of .150.  And as for trying out alongside McCovey, McCovey was already in his 5th year in the MLB when Trump was a senior. So unless Trump tried out for the majors while in junior high, he's completely lying about the situation.

As always Trump's lies are so numerous that we forget how many small lies he's told over the years.

A guy at Slate tracked it down. Not only is it a lie, it's actually pathetic.  He was a part time player, hit below .150, what kinda difficult to play with from a coaching perspective.  The only thing he could do was pick it at first.  He often get's boosted by kids who were years behind or a head of him and can't conspicously recall details. The guys that actually played with him had either very little memory or that he wasn't any good.  He got the equivalant of the senior day award for the kid who stuck it out for 4 years. 

We all played with some version of him HS.  I was basically the equivalent at 2nd base (no arm, can't hit, not terrible with the leather), minus being Fred Trump's shithead son.   

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

As a rural Nebraskan who played 8-man football, there is nothing more than football coaches with a rural Nebraska background love more than an opportunity to call someone a dipshit. 

Dipshit is a top 5 epithet, no doubt about it. I use it constantly. 

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

As nervous as I am, I'm still willing to take a hit of hopeium, and this is some good shit here:


https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/3-tell-tale-signs-that-kamala-harris-will-beat-donald-trump.html

 

Only thing I quibble with is they are not "fake" polls - they're just poorly done and intentionally altered (i.e., basically eliminating Philly from a live voter sample) 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

What if she's a dishonest person? Do you want to vote for a dishonest person? The American people will never tolerate a dishonest person in the White House.

If she's lying about this, what else might she be lying about?

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Only thing I quibble with is they are not "fake" polls - they're just poorly done and intentionally altered (i.e., basically eliminating Philly from a live voter sample) 

I think intentionally altered constitues Fake.

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted
1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think interntionally altered constitues Fake.

Dishonest? Manipulated? Fake would imply someone just made up the results.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Literally everything he touches turns to shit:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html

 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.

LOL and the Pod Save America guys just joked about how McDonald's never kills anyone.

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Posted
Literally everything he touches turns to shit:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html
 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.


Trump stick his dirty ass dick in the French fry potatoes?
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Posted
30 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

She should throw a curve and said it was Burger Chef and not McDs, lets see trump struggle to find an existing BC to cosplay in. 

Posted
33 minutes ago, Red Five said:


Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

I would like to know her qualifications, actually.

this is america GIF

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Literally everything he touches turns to shit:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html

 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.

 

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