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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
16 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

Our goal today is to badger my wife’s best friend into voting today.  She’ll vote for Kamala/Allred, but we just got to get her there.  Her friend is a lawyer who was out of state all last week and has been “too busy” to go early vote this week.  She’s busy but she ain’t that busy.  And the reason she is busy is because she procrastinates and is inefficient with her time, but that’s a whole other story.

If she doesn’t do it today, there is very little chance she’ll do it on Election Day.  She’ll come up with some excuse that “I can’t wait in line for 2 hours. I’m too busy.”  So my wife is texting her constantly.  There’s an underserved voting center 10 minutes from her house that isn’t busy.

And there are millions of people in Texas just like our friend who would vote D but they just haven’t prioritized voting. 

Has she been offered a chance to win $1M? (kidding, sort of)

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Posted (edited)

Cross posting:

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

According to Target Smart, 790,918 people have EV voted in Texas that did not vote in 2020, or 12% of the current vote. 443,655 of those weren't registered in 2020. I think more interesting is the 342,319 that were registered, but didn't vote in 2020 or 2022. Maybe those are GOP voters coming back to him. But I doubt it. Trump won Texas in 2020 by 600,000 votes. 

 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted
17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The years have not been kind to Robert Smith. 
In contrast, I went to the Duran Duran show at ACL in 2021 expecting them to be sad and tired, but they were great and Simon LeBon looked his age but looked and sounded great. Huge main character energy, like Rod Stewart. 

So you’re saying Robert smith is doing worse than Simon lebon but better than Michael hutchence. 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

Our goal today is to badger my wife’s best friend into voting today.  She’ll vote for Kamala/Allred, but we just got to get her there.  Her friend is a lawyer who was out of state all last week and has been “too busy” to go early vote this week.  She’s busy but she ain’t that busy.  And the reason she is busy is because she procrastinates and is inefficient with her time, but that’s a whole other story.

If she doesn’t do it today, there is very little chance she’ll do it on Election Day.  She’ll come up with some excuse that “I can’t wait in line for 2 hours. I’m too busy.”  So my wife is texting her constantly.  There’s an underserved voting center 10 minutes from her house that isn’t busy.

And there are millions of people in Texas just like our friend who would vote D but they just haven’t prioritized voting. 

Tell her you're taking her to lunch, meanwhile the other one of you has just been standing in line waiting for her, so she can show up and vote. Then go eat lunch. If she refuses, tell her that she's dead to both of you. 

16 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

You can definitely detach more when you expatriate, because those aren't "your people" doing this crazy shit - until, of course, you've made it your home, and then they are.

I'm definitely not opposed to the expat life at all; my posts re Portugal out front shoulda told ya, and my sister and her family have lived in London for 20 years and have dual citizenship (note - to me the UK is definitely a grass is greener thing and I'd personally not consider it, but to each their own).

By all means look into it as the adventure that it is, and if you go into it that way, to a place and culture that really speaks to you, you'll have success.

I wasn't criticizing you, man. Just speaking for myself. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Edmund Fitzgerald Song keeps going through my head, particularly this line:

He said, "Fellas, it's been good to know ya"

Well shit, everyone have a good weekend, hope the ags lose, and the best we can do is to be kind to others, even our enemies, in the moment.  

Nah, there are some I won't be kind to. The ones who want advocate for extreme insurrection because they did not get their way. Fuck them.

Early voting today. Last day. Place was empty. 5 women in their voting without their husbands. I wonder..........

So sitting back, watching this thread and sipping the last of my damn good Puerto Rican coffee.

When I got my sticker I said thanks, I collect them.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

Our goal today is to badger my wife’s best friend into voting today.  She’ll vote for Kamala/Allred, but we just got to get her there.  Her friend is a lawyer who was out of state all last week and has been “too busy” to go early vote this week.  She’s busy but she ain’t that busy.  And the reason she is busy is because she procrastinates and is inefficient with her time, but that’s a whole other story.

If she doesn’t do it today, there is very little chance she’ll do it on Election Day.  She’ll come up with some excuse that “I can’t wait in line for 2 hours. I’m too busy.”  So my wife is texting her constantly.  There’s an underserved voting center 10 minutes from her house that isn’t busy.

And there are millions of people in Texas just like our friend who would vote D but they just haven’t prioritized voting. 

Jesus, just tell her that you'll take her to a Friday happy hour after she votes, drinks are on you.  And then post pics of wife's best friend.  And wife.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How many dust bowl descendant Californians moved to Texas in the past 4 years?

Sure, definitely a factor with new voters. But that's why I think the registered in 2020 but did not vote group is interesting. 

Posted
11 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Wife and I had dinner tonight avoiding Halloween kids like good republicans. After a few drinks she asked me how I voted. I told her. We left in separate cars as she had to collect kids. This is our text exchange:

image.thumb.jpeg.099ffbe270588597dbf99f53a4586bea.jpegimage.thumb.jpeg.a4f2c45e293cf183b8ce97012d020a1f.jpeg

 

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Posted
36 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am headed to LA on Saturday the 9th, then back to NYC for a day before heading to London until the 21st. I have repeatedly commented that I might want to transfer to our London office (Or Geneva, Oslo, Madrid, etc..). 

4f3cdeb3-4b07-41d5-960a-e22f80d583e0_tex

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So you’re saying Robert smith is doing worse than Simon lebon but better than Michael hutchence. 

Dang, that's using macabre humor INXS.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

You know what? I wouldn't hate Kamala appointing Liz AG, or some kind of Special Counsel to investigate domestic terrorism. And I'd love to be a fly on the wall at MAL when Trump hears the news. 

Except if you were a fly there, you wouldn't be on the wall, you'd be buzzing around those soggy diapers.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but Target Smart also says those are 95% rural voters, sir. 

It actually has 120,00 of the newly registered as rural (27% of newly registered) and 111,000 of the registered but not vote group as rural (32% of the previously registered). Do we really think there are tens of thousands 2020 rural registered voters that didn't come out for Trump in 2020 and yet are going to come out for him now? That doesn't make much sense to me. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

It actually has 120,00 of the newly registered as rural (27% of newly registered) and 111,000 of the registered but not vote group as rural (32% of the previously registered). Do we really think there are tens of thousands 2020 rural registered voters that didn't come out for Trump in 2020 and yet are going to come out for him now? That doesn't make much sense to me. 

I was kidding, sir. Sushi's been saying that every single new voter is rural. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted
22 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I wish I lived in a country that had the god damned common sense to immediately stop considering voting for anyone who threatened his political opponents with gun violence, or who bragged about sexual assault, or who made fun of mentally handicapped people, or.......

 

But instead you live in a country that discusses Edmund Fitzgerald and how Robert Smith looks now and how good Chili's is.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

I'm glad you're posting all of the expat info here. It's really good, insightful stuff. Wife and I have been traveling a lot lately, looking at various spots to potentially live as expats. In our research and travels, Portugal has become less and less friendly to American expats over the past 3-4 years. There are active protests against American expats, and a lot of anti-expat sentiment. Policies are changing as a result. It's not unlike the stuff you see in America when residents of Idaho or Colorado bemoan California transplants driving up real estate prices, etc. All that is to say we haven't yet found the ideal place, and although we loved our time in Portugal, it's not on our list anymore. Anyway, this is probably better on a different thread. 

Definitely better on another thread, although there are always these sentiments when stuff goes off the rails, as we see in this thread.

My personal experiences in Portugal have been different; Portugal, like much of Europe, has been going through a lot of stress re housing, and Americans are actually a pretty small part of that. A lot of the angst in Europe is directed at tourists in places like Barcelona and Venice (although living in Seattle I laugh a bit as we get nearly as many tourists as Barca and all within about 3 months, and we don't hate you).

I do speak some Portuguese, which does help, but that falls under the "give a tiny shit about our culture and we will be extremely happy with you." I just get teased because what I speak - or try to - is Brazilian Portuguese. 

Thanks for the kind words.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I was kidding, sir. Sushi's been saying that every single new voter is rural. 

Just trying to interject some positivity. Texas isn't going to flip. But, if Dems show out on election day like I expect, I think it'll be a lot closer than the polls show. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It actually has 120,00 of the newly registered as rural (27% of newly registered) and 111,000 of the registered but not vote group as rural (32% of the previously registered). Do we really think there are tens of thousands 2020 rural registered voters that didn't come out for Trump in 2020 and yet are going to come out for him now? That doesn't make much sense to me. 

I guess the concern would be that they view this election as much closer (Cruz too), and their vote may actually matter time around. But, if that's the case, Texas seeming close enough to scare the lazy Rs into getting off their couch is good news.

Posted
Just now, Dahobbs said:

Just trying to interject some positivity. Texas isn't going to flip. But, if Dems show out on election day like I expect, I think it'll be a lot closer than the polls show. 

Anything over 47% for Harris would be great.

Posted
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Just trying to interject some positivity. Texas isn't going to flip. But, if Dems show out on election day like I expect, I think it'll be a lot closer than the polls show. 

Plus Allred. That’s what matters 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

Definitely better on another thread, although there are always these sentiments when stuff goes off the rails, as we see in this thread.

My personal experiences in Portugal have been different; Portugal, like much of Europe, has been going through a lot of stress re housing, and Americans are actually a pretty small part of that. A lot of the angst in Europe is directed at tourists in places like Barcelona and Venice (although living in Seattle I laugh a bit as we get nearly as many tourists as Barca and all within about 3 months, and we don't hate you).

I do speak some Portuguese, which does help, but that falls under the "give a tiny shit about our culture and we will be extremely happy with you." I just get teased because what I speak - or try to - is Brazilian Portuguese. 

Thanks for the kind words.

My parents are looking to move to Portugal. They spent like 4 weeks there this year looking at places. Like you, I took some Portuguese, but only of the Brazilian variety, so I cannot understand what anyone says in Portugal. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted
13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Cross posting:

 

The first number also likely includes new arrivals from other states with many GOP/MAGA transplants.

Like you said, the second number is more significant.

As far as the Cheney story - it's at the top of my Google News feed, so it's getting coverage. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I guess the concern would be that they view this election as much closer (Cruz too), and their vote may actually matter time around. But, if that's the case, Texas seeming close enough to scare the lazy Rs into getting off their couch is good news.

2020 had a record number of voters and turnout % was significantly higher than 2016. I'd be more than a little surprised if they felt their vote didn't matter in the face of that much enthusiasm. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Horndog said:

Trump is not a  consumer. Period. He did not seek or acquire any goods or services by purchase or lease. If this is specifically a DTPA case it doesn't get past a Motion to Dismiss. 

Duly noted elsewhere.

Many things wrong with this lawsuit and that is probably the decider.  However, that post was in response to specific questions about jurisdiction and venue.

Posted

So breaking that Marist poll for PA:

The early vote/already voted from that poll is 63-35 Harris.  The "yet to vote" is 54-44 Trump.  You can tell the GOP has cannibalized some of their E-Day voters, while a significant number of Dems have shifted to E-Day voting, since 2020 E-Day was 65-35 Trump and the EV was 76-28 Biden.  

Democrats also have a few more days to push their EV margins up, since Thursday-Monday are all mail ballot returns, no "in-person voting" until Tuesday.  GOP encouraged their voters to show up early, request a mail ballot and then immediately cast it, which is effectively what PA's early in-person voting is. 

Also Smithley points out Marist nailed the 2022 Senate topline in their final poll, when others were trying to push it to a tie/Oz lead. 

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Posted

Trump has said 10,000 things worse than the Liz Cheney shit that is going viral today. 

And I just want to say it's very frustrating how much Cheney has been in the Democratic spotlight for the last month. I understand the strategy but I don't like it. 

 

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Posted
Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Trump has said 10,000 things worse than the Liz Cheney shit that is going viral today. 

And I just want to say it's very frustrating how much Cheney has been in the Democratic spotlight for the last month. I understand the strategy but I don't like it. 

 

And, while the Cheney quote is ridiculous, as Meidas is wont to do, it is out of context.

Meidas has some good reporting on some things, but can also be counted on to be quite hysterical and to propagate kind of shitty tweets.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

But does yet to vote actually translate to will vote? I just don't see the enthusiasm on his side.

Nope, you also have to hope they turn out.

Also speaking of "nailed it" - EPIC/MRA wo did the Harris +3 poll for Detroit Free Press also was bascially the only pollster who called the 2022 blowout for Whitmer - the final few polls were Whitmer +6, 5, 11, 2, 4.  The +11 poll was EPIC/MRA and Whitmer won 54-44

So the Friday before E-Day, 2 of the pollsters that nailed PA-SEN and MI-GOV put out good polls for Harris.  I will take it.

But the true test is Sunday - Queen Selzer will speak. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
34 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but Target Smart also says those are 95% rural voters, sir. 

I wonder about their definition of rural. If they're including all the exurbs around the major metros that are blowing up I could see it.  

Posted
21 minutes ago, The Dog said:

As far as the Cheney story - it's at the top of my Google News feed, so it's getting coverage. 

That wasn't even all he said! 

He called Biden a stupid bastard and called Harris a sleaze bag.

But Biden says a comedian is garbage and the media ran wild. 

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