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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

gator is a star.  she'll let him do it.

Everything about that dress says, “I’m sick of being a trophy wife in this damn family, and I want to pursue my long-time dream of being a stranger fossil fucker!!”

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Posted
1 hour ago, quigley said:

Trolls gonna troll. I'm NOT taking it "with a grain of salt" because it's total bullshit.

 

@WBT I and others here have trashed Nate Silver here for weeks.

Long story short: he don't know shit about fuck because he's putting BAD DATA into his models. Plus he works for Peter Thiel now.

If you know this and are still quoting him, sorry. Even if he's right (and I don't think he is), it's luck not skill this time.

I think it's quite pissible a lot of pollsters saw understating trump support for a 3rd straight election as an existential threat to their livelihoods and have overcorrected.  But that's not Silver’s fault 

Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

IMHO he looked tired, but in that 'good kinda tired' very chill kinda way. Towards the end he said he thought they could win all 7 swing states.

Edited by wood
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Everything about that dress says, “I’m sick of being a trophy wife in this damn family, and I want to pursue my long-time dream of being a stranger fossil fucker!!”

I don't know about you, but I've been told no a lot in my life, but that doesn't dissuade me.  Now comb your hair over and shoot your shot.  

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The man who accurately called 2022 Senate and 2023 SCOPA has spoken

 

🦅 Pennsylvania - Final Thoughts It's been a long election cycle with ups and downs, but my gut feelings + data are about the same as they were in August. I think VP Harris is favored to win PA by 2 pts, give or take 1 while Senator Casey wins by 4-5. Let's break down why. ⬇️

There are limitations to how much more Trump can squeeze out of those rural areas without cracking their small urban centers - IE, State College while facing off against high turnout overall. Some data points for this include the WA primary, Selzer, the PA district polls, etc.

Concurrently, the suburbs (SEPA and co.) are highly likely to shift left again. They've done so unbrokenly in every cycle since '16 and absent decent racedep, how do you counter additional raw volume from, say, Montgomery? You look to rurals, which I think stay somewhat static.

Relatedly, the herculean effort on the part of PA Dems to keep margins in those areas down add up statewide. The ground game comparison is not close. If Trump wins, it's going to be because nothing on an organizational level had an effect - incumbent govt struggles post-COVID.

However, we do have data that points to late breakers going hard for Harris as well as her holding up weirdly well with seniors and good margins with women. Subsequently, Trump's ability to surge turnout from his base isn't going to make this thing a blowout, IMO.

Fundamentally, nearly everything suggests Harris is favored except for some polling, most of which has been breaking for her in the home stretch. You can't just run scared of assuming that polls miss for Trump again without evaluating the context of why.

Many of them have made great strides to not underestimate the GOP - modified LV screens, '20 recall, nuking Philly (lol), etc. to the point where I feel it's more likely they've slightly overcorrected. Way too many ties too before this week.

Congressionally, I expect Casey to outrun Harris by a point or two while McCormick underruns Trump by a similar amount, partially due to there being multiple right-wing 3rd parties on the ballot, hence the delta. And it's Bob Casey. I'd be surprised if he loses.

For House races, I think Wild in PA-07 and Deluzio in -17 will be fine. Fitzpatrick survives and Cartwright in -08 probably has enough juice to pull it off again, but we'll see. Perry likely barely survives, but if Harris wins and by more than expected, he'll have a problem.

The row offices are more contingent on how the top of the ticket does. DePasquale for AG is in a good spot while Treasurer and Auditor are contingent on a big enough win margin upward.

For state leg, Dems are slightly favored to keep the House, but there are a handful of marginal seats. Still, in an environment expected to be better than '22, it's likelier than not that they can hang on. State Senate leans GOP absent Laughlin in SD-49 crashing and burning.

And that's my read on things, as far as tomorrow is concerned. Who knows? I could be horribly wrong about the state of things. Happy to be and probably will be the longer I cover PA elections. But I trust my gut and what I see - it served me well in '22 and '23.

And frankly, if I could at least go 1 for 2 for the POTUS/PA SEN races, I'd be ecstatic. I've done the best I can; it's up to the voters and both campaigns now. Wish I may to be a perfect oracle, but I'm not J. Ann Selzer. Get some sleep. Long day tomorrow

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Posted
15 minutes ago, MaxHorn said:

We are definitely driving out to Arlington for a visit to Forever Young records. It’s his happy place (and mine too!). That should take up a few hours.

Ever taken him to Josey Records? 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

“Holding up weirdly well with seniors”

Seriously? Are these guys completely blind to the republican rhetoric in this race? Or do they think voters pay zero attention to it and expect them to do what they did 4 years ago? 
 

Just ridiculous 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think it's quite pissible a lot of pollsters saw understating trump support for a 3rd straight election as an existential threat to their livelihoods and have overcorrected.  But that's not Silver’s fault 

It's not his fault, but it'll fuck up his model

Plus he's an asshole who's working for an asshole who's got a significant skate stake in GOP win, so fuck him

Edited by quigley
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Posted
32 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

What a sad, pathetic existence.  She went from Fox News to NBC with her own daytime talk show (and $15-20M per year) to SiriusXM and having to lie about Trump’s “stamina” at a busted rally before he gets his ass kicked.

 

She went from one of the instigators of Me Too to this.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

“Holding up weirdly well with seniors”

Seriously? Are these guys completely blind to the republican rhetoric in this race? Or do they think voters pay zero attention to it and expect them to do what they did 4 years ago? 
 

Just ridiculous 

That's exactly what they expect. That's how their models let them "correct" for low response rates. It's all bullshit. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I don't know about you, but I've been told no a lot in my life, but that doesn't dissuade me.  Now comb your hair over and shoot your shot.  

Comb over? Like a werewolf drinking a piña colada at Trader Vicks, my hair is perfect. 

The picture does not show her two year old daughter, and I haven’t turned the TV on yet, but I think it has kids movies, so maybe it’ll work.

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Posted
Just now, Dahobbs said:

That's exactly what they expect. That's how their models let them "correct" for low response rates. It's all bullshit. 

Hey guys people in this state voted for Trump + X 4 years ago so Kamala +X has to be wrong. We need to re-weight this thing until it matches our expected outcome

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Posted
4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Ever taken him to Josey Records? 

Of course! We hit the LBJ location regularly and have even made a trip or two to the (much smaller) Plano location. There's an H.E.B. near the Plano Josey and he loves that place too. He's definitely my kid.

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Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Losing PA but winning WI and MI would be a helluva parlor trick.

Yeah if he loses PA he's fucked

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Comb over? Like a werewolf drinking a piña colada at Trader Vicks, my hair is perfect. 

The picture does not show her two year old daughter, and I haven’t turned the TV on yet, but I think it has kids movies, so maybe it’ll work.

Well having a prior child is just an indicator that a woman is familiar with sex.   So she may not be familiar with whatever the hell it is I do.   

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Posted
Just now, henrygandorf said:

night crew checking in. ready to make a mess and leave without cleaning it up. 

Season 3 Nbc GIF by The Office

Is this about the Chili’s bathroom after Wednesday?

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Posted
27 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Holy shit. That’s a mid-to-late 80s Black Angus restaurant/bar dance floor. I waited tables there as a teen. Hahhhahahaha 

 

Was it anything like this?

 

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Posted

Teacher inservice tomorrow.  I think I'm just going to go for a half day.  

So what am I supposed to do tomorrow afternoon?  Something about birds?  And Chilis Wednesday? I need instructions. 

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Everything about that dress says, “I’m sick of being a trophy wife in this damn family, and I want to pursue my long-time dream of being a stranger fossil fucker!!”

She’ll probably say no. But what if she says yes?

Gotta shoot that shot

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Posted

Seeing on social media Bernie (and Van Jones) were on CNN and being very dejected, almost admitting Harris is going to lose.

 

anyone watch and hear what they were really saying?

Posted
So Joe Rogan endorsed Trump. Just another Musk-loving Bro Fascist.
I'm glad Kamala blew him off. Fuck that fascist. 
 

Rogan is what he was always gonna be. A simple-minded shallow thinking historically ignorant tool for fascism.
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