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Posted
18 hours ago, Orale said:

Why did so many of these small business guys not consider how bad chaos might be for their businesses? From these lower level guys all the way up to Jamie Dimon types saying we need to get over worrying about tariffs. As a small business guy myself, it's mind blowing to me how enormous a blind spot all these guys have. FAFO indeed and we all get to pay for it. 

Look no further than the mortgage and real estate thread on DT. Real estate professionals overwhelmingly voted for the administration because they wanted lower rates and better business conditions, which confused me then, but whatever.
I am now shocked to realize that many or most of them seem to be under a vague impression that the Fed controls mortgage rates.

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Posted
On 7/30/2025 at 8:12 AM, Post Oak said:

Once again Texas shoots itself in the dick

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Congress’ new budget bill is an energy earthquake. It could wipe out tens of gigawatts of energy production, just as we’re experiencing load growth unlike anything since the 1960’s. It will drive power bills higher for families and factories, and give China the upper hand in the race for 21st century economic supremacy.

To understand in more detail the impacts of the federal budget bill, this week on the Energy Capital Podcast, I talked with Dan O’Brien, senior modeling analyst at Energy Innovation. His team modeled what this bill really means for Texas and the numbers should stop us in our tracks.

If you’ve been reading this newsletter, you know I’ve warned about this moment for months. Now, the data is here. It’s worse than we thought. We were on a path to energy abundance and we’re about to get energy scarcity including increased risk of blackouts and much higher electric bills.

From Ramp to Cliff: What This Bill Actually Does

Here’s what Congress passed:

* Ends clean energy tax credits abruptly. No glide path, no transition, just a cliff.

* Imposes impossible project timelines that most developers can’t meet.

I’ve written before about how this creates scarcity, not abundance (Energy Scarcity). We’re pulling the cheapest, fastest-growing resources off the table while demand is surging. That’s a recipe for higher prices and weaker reliability.

And make no mistake: this isn’t happening in a vacuum. It’s happening right when Texas has proven that solar and storage are great for reliability and affordability.

The Modeling: 77 GW Gone

Dan’s modeling tells the story:

* 77 gigawatts of lost clean energy in Texas, including over 50 gigawatts of solar and over 20 gigawatts of wind)

* Only 2 gigawatts of additional gas

* Household power bills up $400–$500 a year

* Industrial energy costs up 50%

* Tens of billions in lost rural tax revenue

Put that in perspective: ERCOT’s entire summer peak is about 85 gigawatts. This bill wipes out nearly that much future clean power before it’s even built.

These numbers aren’t isolated. Princeton’s REPEAT Project and Columbia’s Climate Knowledge Initiative show the same trend: abruptly ending credits doesn’t save money. It costs money—because you’re replacing cheap renewables with expensive alternatives, or worse, with nothing at all.

 

Demand Is Exploding, So Why Are We Pulling Back?

At the same time, Texas demand is skyrocketing. From 2021 to 2025, Texas has experience 6% year-over-year growth, the fastest since the 1960s. AI data centers, crypto, and industrial electrification are all plugging in at once.

And here’s the kicker: the resources meeting that demand surge aren’t gas or coal. They’re wind, solar, and batteries. They’re 92% of what’s been added since 2021. In the first half of 2025, wind and solar made up 40% of ERCOT’s generation mix. Batteries are breaking records almost monthly, keeping the grid balanced during extreme heat and sudden shifts.

ERCOT calculated summer energy emergency risk dropped from 16% to under 1% in one year, because of solar and storage. We have the data. We have the results. So why are we sabotaging it?

The Human Side: Jobs and Rural Texas

The energy sector is one of the largest drivers of job growth in Texas. These are real people—60,000 Texans working in wind, solar, and storage, including 6,000 veterans. It’s rural school districts balancing their budgets with wind and solar tax base and farmers and ranchers keeping their land in their families for another generation.

It’s welders, electricians, and manufacturers in counties that haven’t seen this level of investment in decades.

 

Global Stakes: China’s Electrostate Moment

Zoom out. While we’re cutting our legs out from under us, China is sprinting ahead. Last year, they added 400 GW of clean energy, several Texases worth of power. Last month, they put in 90 gigawatts of solar. The Financial Times calls them the first “electrostate.”

The U.S.? We added 60 GW in 2024. And now we’re debating LNG power plants that don’t exist. As I wrote in Energy Submission: this isn’t energy dominance. It’s energy surrender.

If we abandon clean energy leadership now, we’re not just risking higher bills—we’re giving away the 21st century.

There’s Still Time: Ramp, Don’t Cliff

I’m not arguing for permanent subsidies. We should phase them out, but smartly, with predictability. A ramp-down avoids price shocks, keeps manufacturing momentum, and protects rural tax bases while we scale what’s next.

We’ve already proven the formula: reliability up, prices down, emissions falling. It’s not theoretical. It’s working. And throwing it away overnight isn’t policy, it’s ideology.

The Bottom Line

The Texas grid is stronger than it’s ever been, because of solar and storage. That’s not my opinion; that’s ERCOT’s own data. Reliability is improving, costs are falling, and we’re finally catching up to the energy future the rest of the world is racing toward.

This bill reverses that progress. It’s a choice between abundance and scarcity, between leadership and surrender. And the clock is ticking.

Timestamps

* 00:00 – Introduction

* 02:00 – What is the federal budget bill and why is it important?

* 04:30 – Impact on Texas power

* 07:00 – Why is there only a tiny increase in new gas capacity

* 10:00 – Modeling Assumptions and Safe Harbor Provisions

* 12:30 – Demand forecasts and modeling variables

* 14:00 – Residential energy cost increases: $480/year

* 16:00 – Why that could be worse if Treasury’s guidance is restrictive

* 19:00 – Why are power prices high if renewables are lowering costs?

* 21:00 – 54% increase in power costs for large commercial & industrial customers

* 25:00 – Job losses from the federal bill

* 29:00 – Rural community impacts and manufacturing losses

* 30:00 – Policymakers could revisit this policy as the impacts take hold

* 32:00 – Phasing out credits would protect consumers and end them permanently

 

* 77 gigawatts of lost clean energy in Texas, including over 50 gigawatts of solar and over 20 gigawatts of wind)

* Only 2 gigawatts of additional gas

* Household power bills up $400–$500 a year

* Industrial energy costs up 50%

* Tens of billions in lost rural tax

 

 

For comparison, those 60,000 clean energy jobs currently in Texas are significantly more valuable, environmentally friendly and safer than the entirety of the 42,000 coal miner jobs that exist in the entire US. Coal is a very small industry compared to the rest of the energy market, but it has an outsized voice in politics for other reasons. It should be a national goal to get rid of entirely as an energy source, as it naturally gets replaced with green energy technologies that are constantly making gains in efficiency and cost. The next Dem president should ban exports of coal and essentially cut the balls off the industry to all but remove it from the field. Even other fossil fuels are preferable to coal for energy generation. 

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Posted
20 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Yup.  And it is not unreasonable to predict that other countries will stop investing in United States bonds and equities and/or the US dollar once they realize Trump sits on his shitter at night and decides what all the job and inflation numbers will be.   The combination of constantly threatening J Pow - and now essentially trying to create a path to falsify economic data that the Fed will utilize to govern US financial policy, I’m pretty sure the money people in other countries who of necessity must have accurate empirical data in order to form their own competent financial policy will go…

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Eventually, investing in the United States with Trump as president (with a bunch of people acting as guard rails, preventing him from doing his stupid, worst instincts)  will now be analyzed as investing in an unstable country with an unstable president who pulls tariff numbers out of his ass, has no idea how trade networks work, and more importantly who has no guard rails from continuing his five-year-old petulant child, who is dumber than shit demanding that everything goes his way.

I had dinner with my ex longtime law partner Friday - and after I finished bitching about everybody seeming to bend the knee to that dip shit - she reminded me that as POTUS he is the most powerful individual in the world, coupled with a childish, vindictive personality and a substandard intelligence.    She said we were living in the twilight zone episode, “ it’s a good life”.   Billy Mummy played a six-year-old kid with psychic powers who had either destroyed the world, or moved his small town someplace else in the universe.   He had unlimited powers and could read minds, and everybody had to 100% toady to the six year-old - or he would cause them unimaginable harm.  Why? Because he was incredibly powerful.  Worse, he was immature, cruel, had zero empathy for other people, insisted on always being right, and would punish or destroy anyone who did not disagree with his every whim or opinion. 

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Fuck!!  She is right.  A perfect analogy. 

 

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Posted
31 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

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Worth pointing out that apparel is a classic case of manufacturing and import/export.  There's raw material (cotton wool silk synthetics), intermediate goods (thread fabric), and finished goods (the actual clothing), and an import/export/tariff scenario at every step.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

It's funny because if Harris would have won, we probably would have seen the market continue the same trajectory it had with Biden and the Fed would have cut rates 2 or three times by now.

that's the part that enrages me the most. this regime could have just coasted on the policies from their predecessors and claimed all the good coming from it as their own, and I would have been fine with it because I wouldn't be lying awake at night wondering if I can keep my business or not. 

Edited by Longhorn_Fan68
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Posted

Story about high-end cookware maker in TN that remains optimistic despite being gouged pretty hard by tariffs.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/cookware-maker-bracing-steel-tariffs-wall-pots-pans-rcna218250

Declines to disclose political affiliations.

He's a Chicago grad that did some work in the Chicago mayor's office.

He may have a handle on how tariffs will affect his costing versus his competitors.  But he may not have a handle on how tariffs and inflation are going to affect demand for his pricey and highly discretionary products.

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Posted
9 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

that's the part that enrages me the most. this regime could have just coasted on the policies from their predecessors and claimed all the good coming from it as their own, and I would have been fine with it because I wouldn't be lying awake at night wondering if I can keep my business or not. 

This post could have been from 2017 and it would be the exact same. What enrages me the most is this country somehow didn’t learn from the first time around. We are galactic dumbasses. 

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Posted
35 minutes ago, gernblansten said:

Obviously, he didn’t cut Trump in on any money. 

Lebanese, I believe, and had received a cease and desist from the Trump Organization.

Posted
11 hours ago, The Dog said:

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The whole article is filled with shitty people. Shady, shitty, dumb people have a way of finding each other. Kemah, League Shitty, that whole area is a cesspool of dipshit magats.

 

https://www.fayettecountyrecord.com/news/trump-burger-chain-embroiled-lawsuits

Furthermore, the notice stated that, “We have been notified that Roland Beainy is currently detained by ICE and his green card has been revoked. He is no longer recognized as a leaseholder or authorized representative of Trump Burger Kemah LLC.”

In an interview with the Record on Monday, July 7, Patterson said Beainy was in ICE custody for approximately seven weeks and that he was recently released on bond.

Green Card Trouble

The Record has also obtained a letter from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) to a woman in East Bernard who claimed to be the wife of Roland Beainy. The letter, dated Jan. 29, notified the woman that USCIS intends to revoke approval for the I-130 form, Petition for Alien Relative, that she filed in 2021 so that Beainy could keep his green card.

The letter said USCIS conducted an investigation into the marriage and found, among other things, that, “No lease documents or other evidence show that you and Roland Beainy ever actually lived together during your marriage.”

Records from U.S. Immigration Court show that Beainy has a immigration hearing scheduled for Nov. 18 in Houston. The Record reached out to Beainy for comment on his immigration status and the pending lawsuits. He directed us to the attorney representing him in the Kemah lawsuit, Geoffrey Binney. Binney declined to comment at this time.

Patterson Responds

A spokesperson for Patterson put out a statement concerning the Kemah lawsuit on Monday saying, “Contrary to the narrative being pushed, there was no hostile or illegal takeover. This was a lease enforcement action, initiated after numerous concerns arose regarding compliance with the terms agreed upon by both parties. The property owner took steps only after repeated efforts to resolve the situation amicably were either ignored or unsuccessful.”

“At the time of possession, the landlord was within their contractual and legal rights to act to protect the property and their investment,” the statement went on to say. “The restaurant continues to operate under separate management and branding while legal proceedings take their course.

“We recognize the public interest in this matter due to the restaurant’s political theme,” the spokesperson continued. “However, this is not about politics. It’s about honoring contracts and protecting property rights.”

Patterson has since leased the Kemah property to another tenant, who has renamed it “MAGA Burger.”

That’s probably a good idea, because lawyers for President Trump’s private business, the Trump Organization, sent Trump Burger of Bellville a cease and desist letter on Feb. 3.

The Trump Brand

The letter stated “... we were surprised to learn that you have been flagrantly infringing upon the Trump Organization’s valuable and well-established intellectual property right by operating at least three restaurants under the Trump name and brand.”

The letter included a reference to the Trump Burger location in Flatonia.

“... this use risks misleading the public into falsely believing that your business is affiliated with the Trump Organization or endorsed by our clients,” the letter went on to say.

The letter demanded that the business stop using the Trump name, brand and trademarks and to remove all references to the Trump name in all websites, social media, marketing and communication materials. It also demanded a “full accounting of all revenues generated directly or indirectly from your unlawful use of the Trump name, brand or trademark.”

The letter concluded by saying the Trump organization would pursue legal action if no action was taken.

The Record reached out to the Trump Organization this week to see if they ever came to any agreement with Trump Burger. They have not responded.

We also reached out to the White House for comment, given President Trump’s strong stance on immigration.

“The Trump Administration is committed to enforcing our federal immigration laws.” said Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman.

The Janho Lawsuit

Those aren’t the only legal troubles facing Beainy.

A man named Beshara Janho sued Beainy last November in Harris County. In that lawsuit, Janho said he and Beainy were business partners in Lebanon since 2018. Janho says they began discussions to start a business in the U.S. in 2021, and in November of that year, they opened a company named BR Concepts in Texas.

Janho claims Beainy assured him they would share the business equally. On Jan. 17, 2022, Janho says he transferred more than $50,000 of his personal funds to a bank account for BR Concepts. Based on this investment, Janho said he was able to obtain an L-1 visa to the United States. Janho said he then arrived in the U.S. and began managing day-to-day affairs of Patti’s Diner, a restaurant owned by BR Concepts. Janho said he and Beainy later acquired two Empire Pizza locations.

In August 2023, Janho said Beainy wanted to buy out his share of the business, but Janho declined Beainy’s offer. In February 2024, Janho said Beainy informed him that he found a new business partner and Janho would have to leave the company. Janho said he subsequently discovered that Beainy “fraudulently obtained control of BR Concepts and other business entities without Plaintiff’s knowledge.”

Furthermore, Janho alleges that Beainy set up BR Concepts under his sole ownership despite what he represented to Janho and his immigration attorney “The Defendant (Beainy) refused to provide the required documents needed to extend the Plaintiff’s (Janho’s) visa which has now expired,” the lawsuit states.

Janho seeks monetary relief between $200,000 and $1 million. That case is pending.

 

Posted
1 hour ago, crash_davis said:

I wonder of the Jews have tapes of Johnson fucking young girls. 

Perhaps they, like johnson’s son, have been monitoring his porn intake.

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Posted

Idaho obgyn problems

IMG_4310.thumb.jpeg.7fcc8a29954fe1079cfe56c8ad55e7a4.jpeg

 

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JAMA study results are fake news. Statistics and math is woke. All is good in potato land. 

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Posted
On 8/3/2025 at 3:15 PM, Gatorubet said:

Yup.  And it is not unreasonable to predict that other countries will stop investing in United States bonds and equities and/or the US dollar once they realize Trump sits on his shitter at night and decides what all the job and inflation numbers will be.   The combination of constantly threatening J Pow - and now essentially trying to create a path to falsify economic data that the Fed will utilize to govern US financial policy, I’m pretty sure the money people in other countries who of necessity must have accurate empirical data in order to form their own competent financial policy will go…

IMG_5050.gif.45bc71066ec544a4c05ac6f61d214fca.gif

Eventually, investing in the United States with Trump as president (with a bunch of people acting as guard rails, preventing him from doing his stupid, worst instincts)  will now be analyzed as investing in an unstable country with an unstable president who pulls tariff numbers out of his ass, has no idea how trade networks work, and more importantly who has no guard rails from continuing his five-year-old petulant child, who is dumber than shit demanding that everything goes his way.

They are also deciding en masse to not vacation in the US anymore.  Wife was reading me an article earlier today.  Canadian visits to the US are down almost 60% and European visits are down almost 40%.  It's a big deal because they stay for weeks at a time and spend a lot of money when they visit.

Posted
46 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

 Wife was reading me an article earlier today.  

 

42 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Oprah Winfrey GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

They were in bed and she woke him up to tell him about something on Facebook/TikTok



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