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Posted
Just now, Gatorubet said:

Whoa there friend.

One can be incompetent, but not doing it intentionally.  Exhibit A: my entire working career.  Exhibit B: a long line of Florida football head coaches.

Yeah that's what I'm saying is happening. 

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Posted
8 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

Which, to your point, is why I thought I agreed with the OP but now I think not.

If the general public or a vocal half of the country actually appreciate and like Trump and what he is doing, the fall out is going to be on the Dems who are viewed as sour grapes, obstructionist, trying to use loopholes to stop the government that America voted for.

Not on learned messageboards full of good poeple like surly, but in the court of popular opinion where the polls get done, the D's might be worse for the wear for any negative outcomes that happen with a prolonged or semi-prolonged shut down (e.g. crime spikes, airline issues, interest rate/stock market sell offs, lay offs, etc.)

It's putting 2026 midterms at risk potentially.

The biggest thing that would put the 2026 midterms at risk is a robust stock market and economy.   That's not why the Dems should hold their ground here, but Trump and the GOP has way more to lose on a recession, and they know it.  

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Tuco said:

The biggest thing that would put the 2026 midterms at risk is a robust stock market and economy.   That's not why the Dems should hold their ground here, but Trump and the GOP has way more to lose on a recession, and they know it.  

There isn't a recession coming. It's a complete economic collapse. 

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Posted
42 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

on one hand, you have the very livelihood of the constitutional republic called the United States of America, which is currently on a direct course to fail and repudiate everything we believed in during the history of our country.

On the other hand, you have people who will get hurt if the GOP drives us into the ditch, but there’s a small chance we can save our country if the injuries from driving into the ditch or so serious and severe that everyone retaliates against the GOP.

like I’ve said several times, I am hoping for a great depression. That is the only thing that will ultimately strip away this selfishness and stupidity to an extent that voters only look at their current situation.  And if it’s bad enough with the GOP, then they’ll try something else. But it has to be really bad for many people to pull the switch for a Democrat.   So I want it really bad.

IMG_4134.gif.7ddcfcea076b1dbad5e98ddd0042c59b.gif

 

And the really fun part is that it all needs to happen fast enough that it meaningfully alters the landscape before next year's midterms...which also presumes that they're held, and held fairly - neither one a guarantee these days. 

I feel like if shit doesn't get dramatically worse for everyone by next summer, then too many swingable voters will still be content enough with the status quo, and the people with status and opportunity to affect real change will still have too much to personally lose by sticking their necks out. 

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

“ I have no earthly idea what they should be doing, but I’m here to tell you that they aren’t doing ANY of those good things whatever those are…”

I’m not sure that is your very best take in a thread talking about political strategy.    

All I know is that I’m having problems with my work software, and NONE of those coders were doing ANYTHING to solve the problems!!! And no, I’m not telling you what the coders should have been doing. It’s not my fucking job to tell them what to do; I do law for a living.

I have outlined my position on what the Democrats should be doing numerous times in other threads. I don't have the energy to repeat myself for the 1000th time, sorry.

Posted
9 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

I have outlined my position on what the Democrats should be doing numerous times in other threads. I don't have the energy to repeat myself for the 1000th time, sorry.

What's been the reception at the Party meetings you've been attending? Or have you been more focused on volunteering for candidates? 

Posted
2 hours ago, TexArcher said:

The problem is that a lot of people who rely on government checks may stop getting them.  Government workers may be furloughed or laid off.  Etc.

I understand that a lot of us are in FAFO mode when it comes to MAGA getting consequences (including me), but many of the people who could suffer now are single moms, senior citizens, etc, who didn't do anything wrong.

pretty sure single moms, senior citizens, etc, are headed for or already in a world of hurt regardless of a shutdown.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, mchookem said:

pretty sure single moms, senior citizens, etc, are headed for or already in a world of hurt regardless of a shutdown.

I know it’s easy to fall through a rabbit hole of ends versus means when trying to justify an economically damaged America, there is no way that the loss of our democracy and having Trump as dictator will not end up being far worse for America and its citizens than whatever long economic hellscape we must endure in order to prevent that happening.

While it is sad that millions of Americans are forced to jump on the grenade, whether they voted for TFG or not, that is kind of where we are.

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Posted
image.thumb.png.6b5ba5aa1fc64c1b047b521a32a58e5b.png

They should start singing the pledge, national anthem and other patriotic bullshit for the cameras. That would be the performative bullshit that they need to do. Maybe order cardboard cutouts for their absent Republican counterparts and give speeches to them about unity, authoritarian appeasement, and creating a path to make America better together as a shared collective. Remind us of our coming together against fascism, Jesse Owen’s, and kicking the shit out of Hitler, the Russians, and leading the world in science, health, technology, making not only America better, but the world better. Give credit to our farmers and Wall Street for nearly ending world hunger. Salute the Democratic presidents who helped grow our economy and win wars.

Get cardboard cutouts of past Republicans who were anti-authoritarian, pro immigration, and program some AI speeches from them as a reminder of humanity. Caution against religious zealots, and speak of the similarities of these wackos no matter the religious vehicle they inhabit.

Talk about how our teachers and our students are the greatest investment vehicles. Nothing can harm us more than under educating the next generations and shifting knowledge abroad.
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Oh wow another post where this guy wonders how the Democrats can fall and suggests they should give in to Republican demands. What a surprise from this definitely centrist unbiased poster. 

I'm not really suggesting anything as much as I am extrapolating out what my opinion is of the likely effect from D's not caving. I initially thought like Bozo that the R's were making a misstep and political instincts were wrong (and I still think a shut down is bad politics) but I have softened on the result being that the R's will wear it. I think we live in a country where, right wrong or indifferent, the D's will wear this. That's all I was saying.

4 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

So I understand the frustration of just saying to shut down the government, but if the Dems don’t do it in the context of winning the propaganda war they will not do well in the mid terms. And that is the real goal. Once again, the Democrats can’t get out of the way of their own bad/no strategies. 

This is a better, pithier way to express what I was trying to say @Huckleberry, if that helps you understand where I was coming from. @Dbeasy gets it.

Edited by Vegas64
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Posted
11 minutes ago, Tuco said:

What's been the reception at the Party meetings you've been attending? Or have you been more focused on volunteering for candidates? 

I am active politically and volunteer locally, a lot. Is your assertion that because I am not actively, personally involved on a daily basis with the national party that I am not allowed to have an opinion? Interesting angle. Stupid, but interesting nonetheless.

Posted
7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Cool, we're still arguing as though there is some form of "messaging" the opposition party could use that would appeal to the shitheads infesting this country. The republican strategy for fifty fucking years was to vilify anyone who isn't a white, straight, cisgendred, christian male, or anyone who dares acknowledge the plight of these minorities. It worked. These people are okay with declaring war on American cities, stripping away all government safety nets, ensuring that the wealthiest pay no taxes, etc., etc., etc., because at least those transgendereds can't us the bathroom and anyone who speaks spanish is sent to the swamp gulag. If acting like adults and promoting better government policies on healthcare, education, immigration, diversity, etc., isn't enough, this country deserves what we get. This shithead and his regime never fall below 40% approval, and would still get 50%+ of a nationwide vote, because they have a license to be bigots and care zero, nothing at all, about policy. Sure there are things I'd prefer the Democratic party do differently, but I'm under no illusion that there is anything they can do within the confines of human dignity that would appeal to the masses in this shithole country. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fucking delusional.

You don't have to appeal to the shitheads. They are not in the majority, despite the results of the 2024 election, no matter what fatalistic bullshit you believe in, and you don't have to stoop to their level to gain enough votes to win. Trump won the popular vote because the Democrats failed to [re]capture a majority of previous Biden voters, period, end of story. The result of the 2024 election was not the result of some kind of mass exodus to the Trump side. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fucking delusional.

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Posted
33 minutes ago, Tuco said:

The biggest thing that would put the 2026 midterms at risk is a robust stock market and economy.   That's not why the Dems should hold their ground here, but Trump and the GOP has way more to lose on a recession, and they know it.  

This is a good point. The stock market, economy, and job market for the lower-middle to the upper class (sorry, poverty/poor class) is what will affect turn out and elections.

The main question is: can D's effectively message that the economy is tanked because it's the R's fault or will the R's win the messaging with lies, obfuscation, and propaganda that it's the D's who are crushing you in the wallet (yet again)? Because if it's the latter, what are we REALLY doing here?

Posted
5 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I'm not really suggesting anything as much as I am extrapolating out what my opinion is of the likely effect from D's not caving. I initially thought like Bozo that the R's were making a misstep and political instincts were wrong (and I still think a shut down is bad politics) but I have softened on the result being that the R's will wear it. I think we live in a country where, right wrong or indifferent, the D's will wear this. That's all I was saying.

This is a better, pithier way to express what I was trying to say @Huckleberry, if that helps you understand where I was coming from. @Dbeasy gets it.

And how, pray tell, do you suggest the Democrats not "wear this" from the perspective of the American electorate? The lie is already spread far and wide that it's about healthcare for illegal immigrants. Did you hear that: "ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS." That's all they have to fucking say and the idiots fall for it, every fucking time. Nothing, literally nothing would change if the Democrats just caved and gave them everything they want without any good faith negotiations. I do agree they should be louder about their positions, but I have no illusions that it would change any minds, so fuck it all. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Cool, we're still arguing as though there is some form of "messaging" the opposition party could use that would appeal to the shitheads infesting this country. The republican strategy for fifty fucking years was to vilify anyone who isn't a white, straight, cisgendred, christian male, or anyone who dares acknowledge the plight of these minorities. It worked. These people are okay with declaring war on American cities, stripping away all government safety nets, ensuring that the wealthiest pay no taxes, etc., etc., etc., because at least those transgendereds can't us the bathroom and anyone who speaks spanish is sent to the swamp gulag. If acting like adults and promoting better government policies on healthcare, education, immigration, diversity, etc., isn't enough, this country deserves what we get. This shithead and his regime never fall below 40% approval, and would still get 50%+ of a nationwide vote, because they have a license to be bigots and care zero, nothing at all, about policy. Sure there are things I'd prefer the Democratic party do differently, but I'm under no illusion that there is anything they can do within the confines of human dignity that would appeal to the masses in this shithole country. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fucking delusional.

Well said

Posted
Just now, Brian Fantana said:

You don't have to appeal to the shitheads. They are not in the majority, despite the results of the 2024 election, no matter what fatalistic bullshit you believe in, and you don't have to stoop to their level to gain enough votes to win. Trump won the popular vote because the Democrats failed to [re]capture a majority of previous Biden voters, period, end of story. The result of the 2024 election was not the result of some kind of mass exodus to the Trump side. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fucking delusional.

10/10 no notes. Well that's a lie-- one note. You could have used "periodt" where you said "period" and it would have hit harder in a "clocked the tea" kind of way.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

This is a good point. The stock market, economy, and job market for the lower-middle to the upper class (sorry, poverty/poor class) is what will affect turn out and elections.

The main question is: can D's effectively message that the economy is tanked because it's the R's fault or will the R's win the messaging with lies, obfuscation, and propaganda that it's the D's who are crushing you in the wallet (yet again)? Because if it's the latter, what are we REALLY doing here?

The party in power always gets the credit or blame for the economy.  I am open to counterexamples, if you have any. 

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Posted
Just now, 'stache said:

And how, pray tell, do you suggest the Democrats not "wear this" from the perspective of the American electorate? The lie is already spread far and wide that it's about healthcare for illegal immigrants. Did you hear that: "ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS." That's all they have to fucking say and the idiots fall for it, every fucking time. Nothing, literally nothing would change if the Democrats just caved and gave them everything they want without any good faith negotiations. I do agree they should be louder about their positions, but I have no illusions that it would change any minds, so fuck it all. 

Honestly I don't know and I think that's why it's a dilemma. Maybe take the Newsom playbook and start communicating to America in a way that America will understand and get on board and change the vibes.

To use a football analogy, the D's are like the Detroit Lions and we are like Detroit citizens. There is a culture and a stink of losing and we are beaten down by the weakness and losing and the jokes.

The D's need their Dan Campbell. Leadership that will come in and change the culture. Sure people will make fun of that leadership initially because it will sound or appear absurd at first (e.g. biting knee caps), but in time the change agent will be validated and well loved. We just have to live through a 2-10 season and be patient.

I think the Mayor of NY guy is closest to that change agent right now, but I'm not that plugged in so maybe there are a lot more. 

Either way it's a tortured analogy but if we shut the government down and have no plan or hope, it feels in vain. Like Florida tanking their season and extending Billy Napier. Where is the hope?

Posted
1 minute ago, Brian Fantana said:

The result of the 2024 election was not the result of some kind of mass exodus to the Trump side.

Counterpoint-it’s not sustainable for the Democrats to require an Obama-esque statesman in order to win elections by sufficient margin that they can pass legislation.  Turning out current Democrats is not enough.  
 

On another note, listened to Pod Save America on my morning run and they have mixed feelings on pegging the resistance around Obamacare subsidies and Medicaid cuts, as those have very noticeable harms that GOP congressional candidates should have to answer for, and that Dem representatives are either unlikely to save them or get credit if they do.  
 

Also listened to Steven Pinker on the Dax Shepard podcast (long run), and he would remind us that power is purely perceptional and consensus based.  This is Trump’s brilliance, in that he understands that he needs to keep the circus going and probably delights in a shut-down because of all the attention it brings.  The Dems should, too, as they’ve been almost totally unable to promote any message outside of safe spaces.  

Posted
4 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

Honestly I don't know and I think that's why it's a dilemma. Maybe take the Newsom playbook and start communicating to America in a way that America will understand and get on board and change the vibes.

To use a football analogy, the D's are like the Detroit Lions and we are like Detroit citizens. There is a culture and a stink of losing and we are beaten down by the weakness and losing and the jokes.

The D's need their Dan Campbell. Leadership that will come in and change the culture. Sure people will make fun of that leadership initially because it will sound or appear absurd at first (e.g. biting knee caps), but in time the change agent will be validated and well loved. We just have to live through a 2-10 season and be patient.

I think the Mayor of NY guy is closest to that change agent right now, but I'm not that plugged in so maybe there are a lot more. 

Either way it's a tortured analogy but if we shut the government down and have no plan or hope, it feels in vain. Like Florida tanking their season and extending Billy Napier. Where is the hope?

Barack Obama ain't walking through the door. 

The problem with both parties (not both sides) is that this isn't about policy anymore it's about control and power. 

Citizens United has eroded the entire foundation of what made political parties what they are, a platform of policy. Now it's legitimately just a power grab and nothing has anything to do with constituents it all has to do with deal making and personal enrichment. 

The Democratic Party is having trouble connecting with voters, because they have no platform, they have platitudes and a bunch of feel good kumbaya bullshit. If they wanted to really kick it into gear they should become the anti billionaire party. Reject any and all contributions from the ultra rich and corporations and go on a complete tear against monopolistic corporations and privatized bullshit ruining everyone's life. They won't, because that's bad for business. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

on one hand, you have the very livelihood of the constitutional republic called the United States of America, which is currently on a direct course to fail and repudiate everything we believed in during the history of our country.

On the other hand, you have people who will get hurt if the GOP drives us into the ditch, but there’s a small chance we can save our country if the injuries from driving into the ditch or so serious and severe that everyone retaliates against the GOP.

like I’ve said several times, I am hoping for a great depression. That is the only thing that will ultimately strip away this selfishness and stupidity to an extent that voters only look at their current situation.  And if it’s bad enough with the GOP, then they’ll try something else. But it has to be really bad for many people to pull the switch for a Democrat.   So I want it really bad.

IMG_4134.gif.7ddcfcea076b1dbad5e98ddd0042c59b.gif

 

 

14 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

This is a good point. The stock market, economy, and job market for the lower-middle to the upper class (sorry, poverty/poor class) is what will affect turn out and elections.

The main question is: can D's effectively message that the economy is tanked because it's the R's fault or will the R's win the messaging with lies, obfuscation, and propaganda that it's the D's who are crushing you in the wallet (yet again)? Because if it's the latter, what are we REALLY doing here?

Yeah it’s clear that right vs wrong or progress vs regress has no impact on Trump’s support.  A shitload of influential people who otherwise would hate him are staying quiet (or actively supporting him) because they stand to profit from his policies.  I think at this point the only way this trajectory changes is when it becomes clear that Trump/MAGA is bad for business.  That point is inevitable, it’s just a matter of how long it takes to get here.  The democrats need to hasten its arrival.  

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Posted
3 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Counterpoint-it’s not sustainable for the Democrats to require an Obama-esque statesman in order to win elections by sufficient margin that they can pass legislation.  Turning out current Democrats is not enough.  
 

On another note, listened to Pod Save America on my morning run and they have mixed feelings on pegging the resistance around Obamacare subsidies and Medicaid cuts, as those have very noticeable harms that GOP congressional candidates should have to answer for, and that Dem representatives are either unlikely to save them or get credit if they do.  
 

Also listened to Steven Pinker on the Dax Shepard podcast (long run), and he would remind us that power is purely perceptional and consensus based.  This is Trump’s brilliance, in that he understands that he needs to keep the circus going and probably delights in a shut-down because of all the attention it brings.  The Dems should, too, as they’ve been almost totally unable to promote any message outside of safe spaces.  

These fucking idiots needed to shut the government down because fuck them, or because the budget asks were all from Republicans. This whole let's give up some stuff to get some other stuff bullshit is entirely why Republicans are able to pin it on Dems. There is no sticking point or infighting to fund the government. There's no looming debt ceiling or other boogie man, it's all manufactured shit by a party who has nothing to offer anyone. If they wanna fuck things up, then fuck them up and stop pussy footing around. 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, immamac said:

If they wanted to really kick it into gear they should become the anti billionaire party. Reject any and all contributions from the ultra rich and corporations and go on a complete tear against monopolistic corporations and privatized bullshit ruining everyone's life.

Fuckin' A right.

Posted
46 minutes ago, immamac said:

Wait so is the government shut down or not? 

It is shut down, though its work goes on by folks deemed essential who are unpaid. Social security checks continue to be issued, because cutting off seniors has, so far, been seen as a bridge too far. I expect turnip to continue to unilaterally spend government funds, and I expect ICE agents to continue to be paid, while service people are not.

Posted
23 minutes ago, TexLonghorn said:

Here's the partisan bullshittery we got yesterday from Dept. of Commerce, sanctifying Dear Leader and blaming the Democrats THREE times:

image.thumb.png.1f3c25002599ecdacaa5078465735b62.png

 

An obvious clear violation of the Hatch Act. 

But ain't nobody going to do nothing. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Tuco said:

The biggest thing that would put the 2026 midterms at risk is a robust stock market and economy.   That's not why the Dems should hold their ground here, but Trump and the GOP has way more to lose on a recession, and they know it.  

This would be true if we were going to have a straight mid-term election.

By then, the gerrymandering will be complete, mail-in ballots will be illegal, and the polling places will be secured by ICE agents, or maybe even National Guard, "to protect against Antifa threats to our democracy," which is code for "make sure minorities don't vote."

I don't think the Dems are taking back Congress in 2026 or the White House in 2028.  They didn't engineer all of this shit to have total control for 2 years then start giving it back.

I keep saying that the GOP has been playing the long game for about 30 years, and this isn't the end game.  It's the middle.

Edited by TexArcher
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Posted
5 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

This would be true if we were going to have a straight mid-term election.

By then, the gerrymandering will be complete, mail-in ballots will be illegal, and the polling places will be secured by ICE agents, or maybe even National Guard, "to protect against Antifa threats to our democracy," which is code for "make sure minorities don't vote."

I don't think the Dems are taking back Congress in 2026 or the White House in 2028.  They didn't engineer all of this shit to have total control for 2 years then start giving it back.

I keep saying that the GOP has been playing the long game for about 30 years, and this isn't the end game.  It's the middle.

This guy knows what's up.

And remember, every single Trump supporter on this board is going to be 100% ok with that.  All of it.  Every last bit of it.  See, e.g., @Enchubben.  He may tell you today that he wouldn't support that....but when it actually happens, he'll both diminish it and back it.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This guy knows what's up.

And remember, every single Trump supporter on this board is going to be 100% ok with that.  All of it.  Every last bit of it.  See, e.g., @Enchubben.  He may tell you today that he wouldn't support that....but when it actually happens, he'll both diminish it and back it.

I, for one, am glad I am a white in our new norm and going forward. 



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