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Texas Recruiting Notes 2023: Strippers, Monkeys, and 5-Stars


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41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

All of this is logical and makes sense and stuff I was hoping we’d do (along with actually, you know, tampering with guys). 
here’s one thing you didn’t mention NIl wise that I’m curious about: 

Might we see a return of the 4 year superstar?  Let’s say a guy like Bijan is targeted to go something like 20th overall (he’s a RB and that’s not super unlikely to be the spot for the top RB on the board). That’s something like 4/14M territory. Will there be the possibility if he’s likely the missing piece to a final 4 entrant type team to scrape up $5 or 7M or something to stay?  Is that money unrealistic for the right guy?

I think we all know VY coming back would have been about as close to a guaranteed title as possible. Could we see a $10M type deal for a guy like that?  Would it matter?  

Bijan's financial priority needs to be getting to his second contract asap. And possibly to his third while he's still young. Unfortunately, RB is probably the position where it makes the least sense to stay for the fourth year. Fortunately, we're stocked at the position.

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Bijan's financial priority needs to be getting to his second contract asap. And possibly to his third while he's still young. Unfortunately, RB is probably the position where it makes the least sense to stay for the fourth year. Fortunately, we're stocked at the position.

That’s my thought too, in this situation. NFL will always be where’s it at for the superstars. They’ll up their game to beat anything college ball has to offer if it comes to it. My feelings on the RB room and the WR room are similar, but that is clearly a highly regarded take in most people’s minds.
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49 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

VY’s rookie contract guaranteed 25.7 million but a lot has changed contract wise for rookies since then. 

Sure. But that’s over 5 years. I’m talking about 10 a year and he can go get the rest of that money later. Along with taking out insurance of course. 

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46 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

These numbers are from a 2020 article:

 

According to the article in 2021 the value was increased. 

8D13205C-34EE-4565-8531-40201E7DC7B9.jpeg

Again- yearly vs total. In year 2023 we could pay Bijan (easily) more than the nfl would pay Bijan in 2023. I wonder if that will ever matter. 

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3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

image.png.cdc1b3046546fbc1fd8d64a1385947bc.png

You'd be a fool not to take 25 million guaranteed on a 58 million dollar contract.

rookie wage scaled plummeted after 2011 CBA. 

edit: nvm. see that you already pointed that out. Guess I don't know why VY as hypothetical is being discussed...?

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Again- yearly vs total. In year 2023 we could pay Bijan (easily) more than the nfl would pay Bijan in 2023. I wonder if that will ever matter. 

I’m guessing the NFL quickly changes their rookie contract structure if this were a real threat.

That might be the play for a 3rd+ rounder, but the NFL will want the 1st and 2nd rounders in the league.
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2 minutes ago, Shaggyhorn said:


I’m guessing the NFL quickly changes their rookie contract structure if this were a real threat.

That might be the play for a 3rd+ rounder, but the NFL will want the 1st and 2nd rounders in the league.

Why would they care?  If superstars stay for another year that’s even more pub. They come into the league even more famous and more  developed. 

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46 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

Bijan's financial priority needs to be getting to his second contract asap. And possibly to his third while he's still young. Unfortunately, RB is probably the position where it makes the least sense to stay for the fourth year. Fortunately, we're stocked at the position.

Fortunately, we're stocked at the position RIGHT NOW.  I think CTJ is quite likely correct, and we will need to defend Keilan, Brooks, Blue, et al vigorously.  Otherwise they are subject to the portal also.
 

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2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Looking it up now, it's yes and no.

 

image.png.43254a50c594dc24749342849ec68680.png

I mean, they can be if the player rep can negotiate it. But it’s not in the cba or anything and I doubt teams are interested in doing so for later picks.  First rounders are a huge capital investment, especially top 10, so the teams are more likely to hang onto them for that reason, and they are the highest graded players so the risk of poor performance isn’t as great. 

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2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Because players have expiration dates, they want to maximize that date for their investment.

So let’s say Quinn Ewers plays 6 games this year. Then he has a really good year next year and we got 10-2 but he’s not in the Heisman contention and we don’t go to the playoffs, but he establishes himself as a top 5 pick… are you saying the NFL cares so much about getting a guy at 21 years old that’s going to play until he’s 36 that they prefer him entering as a well regarded guy vs waiting a year and getting him maybe as a Heisman winner and national champ? 

Right now the number of guys that stay is essentially zero in the situation I am describing. I’m merely wondering if you won’t see 2 or 3 guys a year stay in the new world of NIL and if some blue bloods would be willing to get toward 8 figures for a hypothetical senior year that could be a national title year. I don’t see this hurting the NFL but YMMV I guess. 
 

Interestingly enough, with Arch waiting in the wings I don’t think we’d even make that offer ourselves, but if Arch was a year away and getting ready to be a true frosh I could see js passing the hat if we thought it would be a national title as a result. 

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So let’s say Quinn Ewers plays 6 games this year. Then he has a really good year next year and we got 10-2 but he’s not in the Heisman contention and we don’t go to the playoffs, but he establishes himself as a top 5 pick… are you saying the NFL cares so much about getting a guy at 21 years old that’s going to play until he’s 36 that they prefer him entering as a well regarded guy vs waiting a year and getting him maybe as a Heisman winner and national champ? 

Right now the number of guys that stay is essentially zero in the situation I am describing. I’m merely wondering if you won’t see 2 or 3 guys a year stay in the new world of NIL and if some blue bloods would be willing to get toward 8 figures for a hypothetical senior year that could be a national title year. I don’t see this hurting the NFL but YMMV I guess. 
 

Interestingly enough, with Arch waiting in the wings I don’t think we’d even make that offer ourselves, but if Arch was a year away and getting ready to be a true frosh I could see js passing the hat if we thought it would be a national title as a result. 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-2022-nfl-rookie-contract-projections-for-key-round-1-picks-with-a-rookie-wage-scale-explainer/

 

 

This article is a good breakdown

image.png.3590f4555add85e7e0303716e02e7d16.png

 

So yes I think he'd go pro if he was projected top 5 pick. Tre Lance was taken in the 1st round of the 2020 and he didn't eve play football in 2020.

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Why would they care?  If superstars stay for another year that’s even more pub. They come into the league even more famous and more  developed. 

I see your point and you may be correct, but I think that as more logical for the lower round guys. The guys that would impact a college team, but may be more of a developmental take for the NFL.

I think that for the superstars, that’s essentially the NFL brand. The NFL is about having the best out there at all times and they’ll just money whip anybody that tries to upend the status quo.

To make it recruiting relevant, would Cedric Baxter come to Texas if he thought he’d have to sit behind Bijan next year. Does that impact the college side from trying to keep the one off superstar?
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7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-2022-nfl-rookie-contract-projections-for-key-round-1-picks-with-a-rookie-wage-scale-explainer/

 

 

This article is a good breakdown

image.png.3590f4555add85e7e0303716e02e7d16.png

 

So yes I think he'd go pro if he was projected top 5 pick. Tre Lance was taken in the 1st round of the 2020 and he didn't eve play football in 2020.

The yearly salaries on rookie contracts are shit. The signing bonus is the key, and most of those are paid upfront. We’re not competing with the average annual salary for one year; we’re competing with $20M in year one.

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4 minutes ago, Shaggyhorn said:


I see your point and you may be correct, but I think that as more logical for the lower round guys. The guys that would impact a college team, but may be more of a developmental take for the NFL.

I think that for the superstars, that’s essentially the NFL brand. The NFL is about having the best out there at all times and they’ll just money whip anybody that tries to upend the status quo.

To make it recruiting relevant, would Cedric Baxter come to Texas if he thought he’d have to sit behind Bijan next year. Does that impact the college side from trying to keep the one off superstar?

I don’t  know that any RB’s want to carry the ball 20 or 25 times a game for 3 years. I get the sense that most prefer another good back to help carry the load. 

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Right now the number of guys that stay is essentially zero in the situation I am describing. I’m merely wondering if you won’t see 2 or 3 guys a year stay in the new world of NIL and if some blue bloods would be willing to get toward 8 figures for a hypothetical senior year that could be a national title year. I don’t see this hurting the NFL but YMMV I guess. 


Okay, i’m with you. Let’s retain Bijan and win a Natty next year. We’ll ride Bijan, Baxter, Ewers, and a host of receivers to the promise land!
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7 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Blaming the loss to Bama on Worthy is the hawtest take I have seen in weeks, so thank you for that. Wow.

Regarding NIL, what I am saying is that you are definitively ignorant of the facts and circumstances about which you're attempting to opine. I know this because I am absolutely not. There is nothing to "discuss". This isn't a "disagree to disagree" set of opinions, dufus. One of us is involved, and one of us has shown up to a thread in order to offer to the rest of us "rationale" for their fan fiction. 

What I typed had precisely nothing to do with "riding Riley's jock" irrespective of my fandom. It is pure numbnuttery to ignore objective values because you have selective biases. That shit is on you and isn't a factor for anyone else attempting to discuss the topic. You are threadshitting with that kind of aggie logic and it is annoying.

Riley is using Addison in a highly productive manner at USC. Riley has backing for tampering from his booster base when it comes to $$. He attempted to recruit Worthy into the portal this past motherfucking May, moron. We had to scramble to fucking keep him with actual money and NIL programming the day of the portal closing. You don't know what in the ever living fuck you are talking about here.

And yeah, this cycle doesn't compare to last cycle because now a whole bunch of other groups besides Texas, Oregon and Miami are stockpiling assets and keeping their powder dry for the portal. This cycle will be worse, dipshit. 

You can "think" I am wrong all you like. I do not give one fuck. Your "thinking" is clearly just sunshine-pumping wishcasting with no actual background or understanding of the current state of affairs. 

I am closetojumping. I do not need other handles to reinforce anything I say or do here. You're projecting that because it's probably a tactic you've tried to deploy somewhere in a feeble attempt to make a point or save face. I do not need to do that. closetojumping is all that is needed. Now take your toys that say "replica" on the side of them and fuck off. 

Bulletproof Tony.  Classic scene from a classic film.  Bravo.

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54 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So let’s say Quinn Ewers plays 6 games this year. Then he has a really good year next year and we got 10-2 but he’s not in the Heisman contention and we don’t go to the playoffs, but he establishes himself as a top 5 pick… are you saying the NFL cares so much about getting a guy at 21 years old that’s going to play until he’s 36 that they prefer him entering as a well regarded guy vs waiting a year and getting him maybe as a Heisman winner and national champ? 

Right now the number of guys that stay is essentially zero in the situation I am describing. I’m merely wondering if you won’t see 2 or 3 guys a year stay in the new world of NIL and if some blue bloods would be willing to get toward 8 figures for a hypothetical senior year that could be a national title year. I don’t see this hurting the NFL but YMMV I guess. 
 

Interestingly enough, with Arch waiting in the wings I don’t think we’d even make that offer ourselves, but if Arch was a year away and getting ready to be a true frosh I could see js passing the hat if we thought it would be a national title as a result. 

Guys like Andrew Luck, Matt Leinart, and Matt Barkley, came back for their senior seasons - even though they were projected top 10 picks. I imagine it would have been way easier to make that decision in the NIL era.

Besides, if somebody wants to pull an Eli Manning and decide which NFL team to play for, there could be leverage in returning for NIL money.

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15 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

Guys like Andrew Luck, Matt Leinart, and Matt Barkley, came back for their senior seasons - even though they were projected top 10 picks. I imagine it would have been way easier to make that decision in the NIL era.

Besides, if somebody wants to pull an Eli Manning and decide which NFL team to play for, there could be leverage in returning for NIL money.

Those three guys were also all from well-to-do families   They were in better shape financially than 98% of NCAA football players.

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11 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Those three guys were also all from well-to-do families   They were in better shape financially than 98% of NCAA football players.

Sure that’s true, but I think the point others are making is that every guy (especially the ones that would be thinking of jumping early) could bring in tens, hundreds of thousands, or a million plus, to stay another year 

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What a boring fucking detour to the overall conversation. @Wulaw Horn already has some boring fantasy thread on NIL around here somewhere to prevent us from this kind of banal digression. Christ. 

It’s all silly bullshit. I was just trying to provide some guidance I’d heard about recruiting and NIL, not fairy tales about retaining  the next Vince Young for $10M from willy nilly boosters. 

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4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

What a boring fucking detour to the overall conversation. @Wulaw Horn already has some boring fantasy thread on NIL around here somewhere to prevent us from this kind of banal digression. Christ. 

It’s all silly bullshit. I was just trying to provide some guidance I’d heard about recruiting and NIL, not fairy tales about retaining  the next Vince Young for $10M from willy nilly boosters. 

Sorry to bum you out man. You were amongst the few who got how big this was going to be so I was just curious as to if you thought there might be huge money for special guys to rival the NFL in the right situation. 

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10 hours ago, Hornlover said:

Guys like Andrew Luck, Matt Leinart, and Matt Barkley, came back for their senior seasons - even though they were projected top 10 picks. I imagine it would have been way easier to make that decision in the NIL era.

Besides, if somebody wants to pull an Eli Manning and decide which NFL team to play for, there could be leverage in returning for NIL money.

huge differences dollar wise between being a top 5 guy vs a middle of the 1st guy vs a late 1st guy:

  • No. 2 overall pick: $39.6M, $25.9M signing bonus
  • No. 16 overall pick: $16.4M, $9.1M signing bonus
  • No. 32 overall pick: $12.4M, $6.2M signing bonus

this list doesn't have the bonus numbers just the full contract numbers. spacing is super messed up and i am not going to fix it.

being projected top 10 - or even #6 vs #4 is a huge difference (almost +$7 million last year) vs if you are going #14 ($17.7m) vs #16 ($16.4m) not so much.

 

Spoiler

1. Georgia defensive end Travon Walker, Jaguars: $41,465,408

 
 

· 2. Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson, Lions: $39,603,429

 
 

· 3. LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., Texans: $38,418,555

 
 

· 4. Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, Jets: $37,064,375

 
 

· 5. Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, Giants: $34,694,577

 
 

· 6. North Carolina State defensive end Ikem Ekwonu, Panthers: $30,462,810

 
 

· 7. Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal, Giants: $27,077,395

 
 

· 8. Southern Cal wide receiver Drake London, Falcons: $23,691,980

 
 

· 9. Mississippi State offensive tackle Charles Cross, Seahawks: $23,522,517

 
 

· 10. Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson, Jets: $22,591,714

 
 

· 11. Ohio State wide receiver Chris Olave, Saints: $21,152,921

 
 

· 12. Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams, Lions: $19,121,660

 
 

· 13. Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis, Eagles: $18,613,852

 
 

· 14. Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton, Ravens: $17,767,500

 
 

· 15. Texas A&M guard Kenyon Green, Texans: $17,428,979

 
 

· 16. Penn State wide receiver Jahan Dotson, Commanders: $16,413,330

 
 

· 17. Boston College guard Zion Johnson, Chargers: $16,074,788

 
 

· 18. Arkansas wide receiver Treylon Burks, Titans: $15,651,617

 
 

· 19. Northern Iowa offensive tackle Trevor Penning, Saints: $15,397,702

 
 

· 20. Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett, Steelers: $15,313,075

 
 

· 21. Washington cornerback Trent McDuffie, Chiefs: $15,228,436

 
 

· 22. Georgia linebacker Quay Walker, Packers: $15,059,160

 
 

· 23. Florida cornerback Kaiir Elam, Bills: $14,889,894

 
 

· 24. Tulsa offensive tackle Tyler Smith, Cowboys: $14,551,351

 
 

· 25. Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum, Ravens: $14,382,085

 
 

· 26. Florida State defensive end Jermaine Johnson II, Jets: $14,212,788

 
 

· 27. Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd, Jaguars: $14,043,543

 
 

· 28. Georgia defensive tackle DeVonte Wyatt, Packers: $13,958,904

 
 

· 29. Chattanooga guard Cole Strange, Patriots: $13,279,748

 
 

· 30. Purdue defensive end George Karlaftis, Chiefs: $12,920,090

 
 

· 31. Michigan safety Daxton Hill, Bengals: $12,618,818

 
 

· 32. Georgia safety Lewis Cine, Vikings: $12,424,832

 

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So the wheel goes like:

1. Players create the cfb content
2. Content creates tons of money
3. Money goes to AD and university.
4. Missing connection step
5. Boosters pay for players through NIL

About #4,

How does the money generated fund the players though? If it doesn’t what does that mean long term? Boosters just have endless money to donate to athletic departments and pay players bc they like winning cfb games? Do we give some sort of donation credits for providing NiL money?

Interesting to see how this plays out over the next 5-10 years. Once the novelty wears off.

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33 minutes ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:

So the wheel goes like:

1. Players create the cfb content
2. Content creates tons of money
3. Money goes to AD and university.
4. Missing connection step
5. Boosters pay for players through NIL

About #4,

How does the money generated fund the players though? If it doesn’t what does that mean long term? Boosters just have endless money to donate to athletic departments and pay players bc they like winning cfb games? Do we give some sort of donation credits for providing NiL money?

Interesting to see how this plays out over the next 5-10 years. Once the novelty wears off.

This is where the collectives come in.  Since they're charitable contributions you're more likely to see recurring donations. You still need corporate deals for the big names. You're seeing that with the Wrangler deals amongst others. 

 

The collectives handle the base payroll, the others fund the big names

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This is where the collectives come in.  Since they're charitable contributions you're more likely to see recurring donations. You still need corporate deals for the big names. You're seeing that with the Wrangler deals amongst others. 
 
The collectives handle the base payroll, the others fund the big names

That doesn’t connect the massive amount of money generated by football to the players. What’s the kickback to the collective from the ad?

If none, how to prevent collectives from drying up?
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19 minutes ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:


That doesn’t connect the massive amount of money generated by football to the players. What’s the kickback to the collective from the ad?

If none, how to prevent collectives from drying up?

Have more and depper pocket boosters than the other guys. 

 

There are some shitty for profit NIl stuff out there such as Players Lounge and etc.


The collective ran by donations is far superior or the player than the for profit shit.

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21 minutes ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:


That doesn’t connect the massive amount of money generated by football to the players. What’s the kickback to the collective from the ad?

If none, how to prevent collectives from drying up?

Yeah, that's the part that I see having the ability to be a future problem down the road.  I think it's just a bet on passion.  But, if  you donate $10M to the program directly you get all sorts of perks.  There's the rumor out there that the AD is territorial about the donors and against the idea of the collective, so it's uncertain that your access or perks or stroke will increase if you give to the players instead of the AD at Texas.  I'd assume it gets worked out but I don't know that I'd be 100% certain it does at Texas. 

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25 minutes ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:


That doesn’t connect the massive amount of money generated by football to the players. What’s the kickback to the collective from the ad?

If none, how to prevent collectives from drying up?

You just never spend the principal. 

You collect $10MM, invest it in something semi-liquid, and then pay out from the yearly dividends. If you can get 10% return on your investment, that's $1mm available to go to the players. 

Then, each year you solicit more donations to increase the amount of money in the fund. 

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19 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

All of this is logical and makes sense and stuff I was hoping we’d do (along with actually, you know, tampering with guys). 
here’s one thing you didn’t mention NIl wise that I’m curious about: 

Might we see a return of the 4 year superstar?  Let’s say a guy like Bijan is targeted to go something like 20th overall (he’s a RB and that’s not super unlikely to be the spot for the top RB on the board). That’s something like 4/14M territory. Will there be the possibility if he’s likely the missing piece to a final 4 entrant type team to scrape up $5 or 7M or something to stay?  Is that money unrealistic for the right guy?

I think we all know VY coming back would have been about as close to a guaranteed title as possible. Could we see a $10M type deal for a guy like that?  Would it matter?  

The issue with that is it delays the second NFL contract by a year. I could still see it happening but it would take a particular personality type. 

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1 hour ago, KeysPhoneWallet said:


That doesn’t connect the massive amount of money generated by football to the players. What’s the kickback to the collective from the ad?

If none, how to prevent collectives from drying up?

You should listen to Jesus. He's been paying attention. There is not any connection to the money generated by players, there is no kickback, there is no connection because not only does there not have to be, but a direct connection is illegal. How do you prevent collectives from drying up? Well, winning is a start, having boosters with money and who understand things helps, obviously. But there's no guarantee to anything in this world. 

44 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah, that's the part that I see having the ability to be a future problem down the road.  I think it's just a bet on passion.  But, if  you donate $10M to the program directly you get all sorts of perks.  There's the rumor out there that the AD is territorial about the donors and against the idea of the collective, so it's uncertain that your access or perks or stroke will increase if you give to the players instead of the AD at Texas.  I'd assume it gets worked out but I don't know that I'd be 100% certain it does at Texas. 

It isn't a fucking rumor. 

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48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah, that's the part that I see having the ability to be a future problem down the road.  I think it's just a bet on passion.  But, if  you donate $10M to the program directly you get all sorts of perks.  There's the rumor out there that the AD is territorial about the donors and against the idea of the collective, so it's uncertain that your access or perks or stroke will increase if you give to the players instead of the AD at Texas.  I'd assume it gets worked out but I don't know that I'd be 100% certain it does at Texas. 

The bet on passion has been funding payments to players for more than half a century. I don't see any reason to think that will stop now that it's legal.

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This has been briefly touched on, but…does this Ewers injury contribute to a problematic transition from him to Arch?

Lets say this injury is nagging throughout the year and he only plays half the games (please God no). Comes back next year and plays a full season.

Is he ready to leave then? And if he doesn’t, how do the Mannings react to that?

I get that it’s hypothetical, but when he first got injured and was projected to be out as much as six weeks, it had me wondering.

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5 minutes ago, Ghost of Shag said:

This has been briefly touched on, but…does this Ewers injury contribute to a problematic transition from him to Arch?

Lets say this injury is nagging throughout the year and he only plays half the games (please God no). Comes back next year and plays a full season.

Is he ready to leave then? And if he doesn’t, how do the Mannings react to that?

I get that it’s hypothetical, but when he first got injured and was projected to be out as much as six weeks, it had me wondering.

If that happens (please baby Jesus don’t let it) and he has a good year next year, he’s gone. Too much talent for NFL teams to pass on even if it’s a limited sample size

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