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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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1 minute ago, Helobious said:

It appears as though China’s unprecedented aggressive response did help mitigate the spread somewhat. China’s looking like the safest place in the world from the virus currently.

Wtf does that mean? "Mitigate the spread somewhat"? 

So it took 6 days instead of 3 to spread the virus? The end result is the same. We're gonna get infected. 

All it takes is one to infect others. We're not gonna stop this. 

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8 minutes ago, Asithappens said:

You can't contain this. So, there was no time to do that.

Pretty sure the only thing that would have worked is to shut down all international travel for an extended period of time. And even then, someone could bring it across the border and SHTF. 

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3 minutes ago, Asithappens said:

Wtf does that mean? "Mitigate the spread somewhat"? 

So it took 6 days instead of 3 to spread the virus? The end result is the same. We're gonna get infected. 

All it takes is one to infect others. We're not gonna stop this. 

While you're right that a lot of (maybe most) Americans will get exposed, you're missing the big picture on the "end result."  The reason this thing has been such a problem in China is that a ton of people (15-20% of those infected, if you trust the numbers) get seriously ill and need to be hospitalized.  They needed fluids and oxygen to stay alive and recover.   China built a couple dozen new hospitals to care for these people.   If the virus spreads so fast that medical facilities get overrun and people who need treatment can't get it, we will have deaths that would otherwise have been preventable.  That's why the rate of spread matters.

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1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah, I gave that a listen. That guy sounds competent and intelligent as fuck. Great interview. And honestly, the guy who was asking the questions was asking really smart shit as well, and pointing things out. Gottlieb (NY Doc) was adamant this was going to be a real problem in America's daily life, while at the same time saying that watching South Korea mortality rates was the best and the mortality rates would likely be much lower than China, he said .2 to .4 percent, or double to 4x the rate of death from the flu. Great listen. 

You able to point me in this interview’s direction? I’d like to listen. 
 

Nevermind. I didn’t backtrace enough quoted posts. Got it now. 

Edited by The People’s Elbow
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22 minutes ago, Asithappens said:

You can't contain this. So, there was no time to do that.

Well, if the virus' spread can be slowed, perhaps a vaccine in 12 months may be more effective because fewer will have caught it by the time the vaccine is available.

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1 minute ago, Sbbruin said:

Well, if the virus' spread can be slowed, perhaps a vaccine in 12 months may be more effective because fewer will have caught it by the time the vaccine is available.

What data points lead you to believe governments and citizens have the ability, willingness, pragmatism, and discipline to define and hold a containment line for twelve months?  

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48 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Trying to work up a treatment as well.  Currently, what makes this also hard is that other than supportive care, there is no treatment.  I believe there are already treatments and vaccines in human testing.  I would tend to agree that this might get fast tracked, probably the treatment moreso than the vaccine.  

My guess is that three fully human monoclonals against the spike protein of the virus would be the best short term treatment. Unfortunately, the FDA considers the 3 antibodies, 3 separate drugs. A single monoclonal may work in clinical trials but the virus will probably mutate pretty quickly. Amgen using technology that I was involved in with Abgenix could do this quickly, but clinical trials would be very slow.

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30 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The time to contain was weeks ago when the nation's official position was "it's gonna be fine, don't worry about it, you'll spook the markets". We get to see the trainwreck of a botched response now.

People are dumb. They're going to do dumb things when there's uncertainty. There's not much BUT uncertainty to go on these days.

Good theory, but there never was time to contain.  Thousands of people who had no idea they were infected, and those studying the virus hadn’t yet identified the incubation period/asymptomatic communicability, had already traveled to all ends of the earth.  This thing was everywhere over a month ago and we’re finally realizing it. 

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I’m curious, does the FDA have a “fuck the clinical trials” protocol in case there’s a situation where a vaccine needs to be ready to go in, say, a few months, or humanity gets wiped out?

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1 minute ago, XYZ said:

I’m curious, does the FDA have a “fuck the clinical trials” protocol in case there’s a situation where a vaccine needs to be ready to go in, say, a few months, or humanity gets wiped out?

I mean, those clinical trials exist for a reason. If the vaccine/treatment has a 5% rate of extreme/fatal reaction, and you're vaccinating for a 2% fatal disease... You're not being helpful lol

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12 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

What data points lead you to believe governments and citizens have the ability, willingness, pragmatism, and discipline to define and hold a containment line for twelve months?  

I only suggested the potential effectiveness of slowing the spread down, not containing.  The time for that has long passed.  And no, I have little faith in our ability to do either.

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2 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’m curious, does the FDA have a “fuck the clinical trials” protocol in case there’s a situation where a vaccine needs to be ready to go in, say, a few months, or humanity gets wiped out?

No, but it does have a fast track process. Plus, in this case, data won't sit around on people's desks. Still, there won't be a vaccine for this outbreak - Nothing will be available before the fall: The NIH director says 2021.

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3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I knew we should have bought that place. Asking price is probably way up now. 

How many dumb Americans would it take to screw it up?

Edited by Bevo
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15 minutes ago, CHEF DIESEL said:

In Tarrant County. Can't get more specific, sorry. The CDC is the organization that administers the official-official test even though the patient has been tested twice. Both tests were positive.

hmm.  Contains Arlington.  dunn duh dunnnnnnnnnn

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I headed over to the poors side of town to visit someone on my lunch break.  Stopped by a random Walgreens and as you would have it i bought the last bottle of Zinc.  Ya'll fucked when the poors already know.  Cashier said she feels something bad is coming and followed that up with her question of "Do you believe in Zombies?"  Haha, never change Aldine!  

   

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35 minutes ago, Asithappens said:

Wtf does that mean? "Mitigate the spread somewhat"? 

So it took 6 days instead of 3 to spread the virus? The end result is the same. We're gonna get infected. 

All it takes is one to infect others. We're not gonna stop this. 

60,000 people all needing to be hospitalized for a week all at once is a much different problem than 60,000 people needing to be hospitalized for a week over 3 months. 

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How is Texas handling/not handling testing?
They have one potential person who works at Rice. They're sending the swabs to Houston health department and being shipped to the CDC. So, they're not really handling it, at least in Harris county.

How many cases in Chicago now? 3,4? This may be out of control there as well.
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2 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

More nursing home people?

looks like it.  this is 17hrs old, probably not fully accurate:

 

The four new cases are in:

A female in her 80s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman has underlying health conditions, and is in critical condition

A female in her 90s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman has underlying health conditions, and is in critical condition

A male in his 70s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man has underlying health conditions, and is in critical condition

A male in his 70s was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth. He had underlying health conditions and died on 2/29/20.

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1 hour ago, Radical Larry said:

 

You think my son and three of his jack ass buddies were at North Star Mall eating Chick Fil A at exactly the same time this dipshit was reported to be there?

It was nice knowing you all. In lieu of flowers, please donate giant ceramic crabs to  the Surly Bevo Wreath Fund.

Edited by Mitch Cumsteen
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Just now, Mitch Cumsteen said:

You think my son and three of his jack ass buddies were at North Star Mall eating Chick Fil A at exactly the same time this dipshit was reported to be there?

It was nice knowing you all. In lieu of flowers, please donate giant ceramic crabs to  the Surly Bevo Wreath Fund.

It was nice knowing you all. 

Me too - I traveled to Chicago for the weekend, and now I see there are cases being reported in the Chicagoland area. I'm takinga a Purell®bath when I get home. If that doesn't work, it's been fun to post here.

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4 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

You think my son and three of his jack ass buddies were at North Star Mall eating Chick Fil A at exactly the same time this dipshit was reported to be there?

It was nice knowing you all. In lieu of flowers, please donate giant ceramic crabs to  the Surly Bevo Wreath Fund.

Pix of the widow to be?

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6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Washington researchers have some bad news on the latency period:

Cryptic transmission for the past 6 weeks - oopsy. 

Let's hope the kill rate and transmission rate is very low. 

Old news at this point. Lot of talk about it a few pages back.

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1 hour ago, fuggled said:

While you're right that a lot of (maybe most) Americans will get exposed, you're missing the big picture on the "end result."  The reason this thing has been such a problem in China is that a ton of people (15-20% of those infected, if you trust the numbers) get seriously ill and need to be hospitalized.  They needed fluids and oxygen to stay alive and recover.   China built a couple dozen new hospitals to care for these people.   If the virus spreads so fast that medical facilities get overrun and people who need treatment can't get it, we will have deaths that would otherwise have been preventable.  That's why the rate of spread matters.

You also are not taking into account that air quality in China is shit and smoking in China is incredibly widespread.  The air quality issues alone probably make this worse for Chinese.  

We need to pay attention to Italy and to a lesser extent, South Korea (SK also has air quality issues and high smoking).  Those will tell us more about how serious this is. Remember, the 10-20% numbers are based off studies in China, and there is definitely an idea that those numbers are skewed (i.e. only the serious are coming forward).

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