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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Thanks for the info. When I said young, I should have clarified that I was referencing under the age of 50.  Also, hospitalization, not deaths, is what I’m concerned about because of the indications of long-term damage being reported as a result of hospitalization. So, I just took a quick look at the CDC website for hospitalization rates by age and by condition. No idea how accurate the data below is, but it's close enough for government work. This is through 6/13.

Hospitalizations By Age

0-4 YR 110       

5-17 YR  161         

18-49 YR   7538         

50-64 YR  8431     

65+ YR     12747

So, 27% of cases are under age 50.

 

Then, I looked at Hospitalizations By Condition

Asthma   849

Cardiovascular disease   2210

Chronic lung disease 1381

Immune suppression  656

Metabolic disease  2790

Neurologic disease  1577

Other disease   389

No known condition   627 (8.5%)

Autoimmune disease   199

Obesity  3068

Pregnancy N/A

Renal disease  1063

Gastrointestinal/liver disease  345

Hypertension  3752

 

8.5% have had no condition. Not sure how many are under 50 and have no condition, but probably a significant portion of that 8.5%.

So, probably about 5-8.5% are healthy under 50 which would be about 400-627 of the cases, pretty small part of the almost 30,000 hospitalizations. Not zero, but not large either.

Edit: Just noticed the total numbers between condition and age varied by 10k. Not sure why on CDC site. Assuming 8.5% of 30k hospitalizations would imply 2,550 people had no health issues and most were likely under 50.

Add most of those underlying issues to the obesity column as well. 
 

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3 minutes ago, Viper said:

family friend and her boys got it from the ex who is a janitor at a hospital. she's about 40, does a lot of 10k and triathlon training, said she had a bad cough and it felt like a weight was on her chest. one boy just had a cough and fever and diarrhea, while the other boy tested negative. wouldn't be surprised if he already had it and recovered, or is about to get it soon.

There’s a white paper out there postulating that 40-60% of people may have resistance to SARS-CoV-2 not because they developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 but because they previously developed antibodies against common cold coronaviruses. So it’s possible that the other boy just doesn’t get COVID.

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There’s a white paper out there postulating that 40-60% of people may have resistance to SARS-CoV-2 not because they developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 but because they previously developed antibodies against common cold coronaviruses. So it’s possible that the other boy just doesn’t get COVID.
As a parent of a 2 year old who, prior to covid, brought the 48 hour bug du jour home from day care on a monthly basis, this would rule.
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There’s a white paper out there postulating that 40-60% of people may have resistance to SARS-CoV-2 not because they developed antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 but because they previously developed antibodies against common cold coronaviruses. So it’s possible that the other boy just doesn’t get COVID.

Wtf? I mean LTC/nursing homes are probably cleanest of the clean when it comes to viruses. They probably do anything and everything to keep the flu, colds etc out of the building. Could LTC patients immune systems that haven’t fought a virus or anything be the reason why they’re taking such a toll from this?


One of those it’s not good to be “too clean” type deals?
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56 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah this is a opportunistic virus. It attacks people with compromised immune systems, and other underlying conditions for the most part.  Some idiot on FB posts a picture a of an 19 year old black kid who is obviously very obese, and the headline is "healthy 19 year old dies suddenly from Covid.  This was one of those, a picture is worth a 1,000 words moments.

Maybe.  But I also notice that again we’re putting over half the “pre-existing condition” people into very fluid categories like “obesity” and “hypertension.”   Typically, obesity is usually based on BMI rather than actual body fat measurements, and the overall meaning of BMI as an individual characteristic is suspect at best (my favorite example was Emmitt Smith being “obese” according to the BMI at his playing weight).  
 

And, although they’re both technically “hypertensive,” there’s a big difference between a guy who has BP of 125/82 and a guy who is at 145/100. 
 

So I still think those “pre-existing condition” stats are kind of bullshit.   

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12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Wtf? I mean LTC/nursing homes are probably cleanest of the clean when it comes to viruses. They probably do anything and everything to keep the flu, colds etc out of the building. Could LTC patients immune systems that haven’t fought a virus or anything be the reason why they’re taking such a toll from this?


One of those it’s not good to be “too clean” type deals?

What fucking nursing homes have you been to? They claim that they follow infectious contagion procedures but it's usually the nurses just reusing gowns and masks between patients, GRhorn style. 

LTC and NH patients are getting hit so hard by covid because they're generally immunocompromised, frail, and subject to the care that's provided to them. 

My dad's NH has been in infectious lockdown procedure for months due to a flu scare a month before COVID, but my dad has been moved between rooms several times due to a room mate or adjacent resident having symptoms or a cold

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Maybe.  But I also notice that again we’re putting over half the “pre-existing condition” people into very fluid categories like “obesity” and “hypertension.”   Typically, obesity is usually based on BMI rather than actual body fat measurements, and the overall meaning of BMI as an individual characteristic is suspect at best (my favorite example was Emmitt Smith being “obese” according to the BMI at his playing weight).  
 
And, although they’re both technically “hypertensive,” there’s a big difference between a guy who has BP of 125/82 and a guy who is at 145/100. 
 
So I still think those “pre-existing condition” stats are kind of bullshit.   

I would put a very significant amount of money on a bet that the large majority of people who dismiss the virus as no big deal because it doesn't kill young healthy people have at least one of the comorbidities. We know at least half the country has one or more. We know that stupid people tend to be fat. So I mean, it's basically science.
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3 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

For pete's sake already.

All of the cases in Beijing have been linked to the city’s biggest wholesale food market.

A security guard locks with chain the fence of the seafood wholesale market main entrance which was closed for inspection in Beijing, Sunday, June 14, 2020.

The Xinfadi market in southwest Beijing was shut down Saturday after 50 people tested positive for the virus in recent days. Before the spate of infections, the city had not had any new COVID-19 cases in 55 days.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-china-beijing-xinfadi-market-lockdown-virus-highest-daily-total-two-months

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1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Maybe.  But I also notice that again we’re putting over half the “pre-existing condition” people into very fluid categories like “obesity” and “hypertension.”   Typically, obesity is usually based on BMI rather than actual body fat measurements, and the overall meaning of BMI as an individual characteristic is suspect at best (my favorite example was Emmitt Smith being “obese” according to the BMI at his playing weight).  
 

And, although they’re both technically “hypertensive,” there’s a big difference between a guy who has BP of 125/82 and a guy who is at 145/100. 
 

So I still think those “pre-existing condition” stats are kind of bullshit.   

Yeah, I know some big guys who might be considered obese but they're not jelly belly fat,  weight lifters with a lot of body mass as well as muscle. That poor kid's face was a almost perfect circle of fat.

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1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Maybe.  But I also notice that again we’re putting over half the “pre-existing condition” people into very fluid categories like “obesity” and “hypertension.”   Typically, obesity is usually based on BMI rather than actual body fat measurements, and the overall meaning of BMI as an individual characteristic is suspect at best (my favorite example was Emmitt Smith being “obese” according to the BMI at his playing weight).  
 

And, although they’re both technically “hypertensive,” there’s a big difference between a guy who has BP of 125/82 and a guy who is at 145/100. 
 

So I still think those “pre-existing condition” stats are kind of bullshit.   

Sorry, but the overwhelming majority of obese Americans by definition of BMI are not built like Smith or any other NFL RB, Lb, etc. Does BMI perfectly code every individual?  No. Is it a useful tool that helps categorize the American population as a while?  Yes. If heart diseases wasn’t the number 1 cause of death we might we’d to revisit the BMI, but it and cancer are solidly number one and 2 with no real competition. 

Edited by UT_OB1
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What fucking nursing homes have you been to? They claim that they follow infectious contagion procedures but it's usually the nurses just reusing gowns and masks between patients, GRhorn style. 
LTC and NH patients are getting hit so hard by covid because they're generally immunocompromised, frail, and subject to the care that's provided to them. 
My dad's NH has been in infectious lockdown procedure for months due to a flu scare a month before COVID, but my dad has been moved between rooms several times due to a room mate or adjacent resident having symptoms or a cold

None. That’s why I asked.


Well I guess my grandpa was in LTC last year for about a year until he died in March 2019. He wouldn’t have survived the covid outbreak that happened in the same facility. When I visited I didn’t pay attention to their infectious contagion procedures.








File this under the no shit file
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8 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Plenty of smart people fall victim to the Dunning-Kruger effect. Its much more of a "people with a little bit of knowledge on a subject grossly overestimate their competence in that subject" than a "dumb people overestimate their competence in a subject."

So, blue checkmark Twitter then. 

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5 hours ago, Captainant said:

What fucking nursing homes have you been to? They claim that they follow infectious contagion procedures but it's usually the nurses just reusing gowns and masks between patients, GRhorn style. 

LTC and NH patients are getting hit so hard by covid because they're generally immunocompromised, frail, and subject to the care that's provided to them. 

My dad's NH has been in infectious lockdown procedure for months due to a flu scare a month before COVID, but my dad has been moved between rooms several times due to a room mate or adjacent resident having symptoms or a cold

In the OR people reuse masks all the time, even Pre Covid, Cap’N. But no I wouldn’t put nursing homes or Ltacs in the exemplary care bucket. It’s where people go to die. Maybe thats why so many governors have sent Corona positive patients to them?

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Not a good update

Update 6/14/20

May 1, 2020 - Beginning on May 1, 2020 (Friday), retail stores, restaurants, places of worship, movie theaters and malls will be allowed to operate at 25% capacity. The Travis County Fire Marshal's Office has provided a business reopening guidance.

Travis County Kung Flu Deaths - Cumulative total

3/27: 1 death

6/5: 97 deaths

6/8: 97 deaths

6/10: 99 deaths

6/11: 99 deaths

6/12: 101 deaths

6/13: 104 deaths

6/14: 104 deaths

Last 10 Days: +7

Travis County Health Care Stats: Current numbers

6/5: Hp - 88, ICU - 37, Vent - 22

6/8: Hp - 87, ICU - 40, Vent - 25

6/10: Hp - 91, ICU - 36, Vent - 26

6/11: HP - 104, ICU - 44, Vent - 27

6/12: Hp - 112, ICU - 46, Vent - 26

6/13: Hp - 111, ICU - -48, Vent - 24

6/14: Hp - 129, ICU - 52, Vent - 29

Last 10 Days: Hp: +41(fuck), ICU: +15(fuck),Vent: +7

Ten Day Average HP (rolling): 98.6 (6/6,6/7,6/9 used 88 so not 100% accurate)

10 Day Avg on 6/11 - 91.5

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

US Death Total 6/12/20

Nursing Home/Extended Care Deaths: 57,657 (54.6%)

Remaining Population (all ages):           47,913

Total:                                                         105,570

Top 5: Highest State Death Totals:

NY: 24,442

NJ: 12,489

Mass: 7,538

Pennsylvania: 6,162

Illinois: 5,795

 

Total: 56,426 (53.4% of total deaths)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/htmlview#gid=43566737

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1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

In the OR people reuse masks all the time, even Pre Covid, Cap’N. But no I wouldn’t put nursing homes or Ltacs in the exemplary care bucket. It’s where people go to die. Maybe thats why so many governors have sent Corona positive patients to them?

Some nursing homes are combined with assisted living residences, and even retirement centers - all three stages filled with olds who are not nearly ready for their deathbeds. My dad was in one (the nursing part) for almost three years before he passed away.

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10 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah this is a opportunistic virus. It attacks people with compromised immune systems, and other underlying conditions for the most part.  Some idiot on FB posts a picture a of an 19 year old black kid who is obviously very obese, and the headline is "healthy 19 year old dies suddenly from Covid.  This was one of those, a picture is worth a 1,000 words moments.

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NC opened way too early and our numbers look awful now. We have a Democrat governor and so far I think we're the only state where the possibility of going back into a lockdown has been mentioned. I don't think you can put that genie back in the bottle though, so it'll be interesting to see what the next few months bring. Wife and I rarely go out but when we do, we wear masks, but some of the pictures around Charlotte this past weekend are just crazy.

Enviado desde mi SM-G973U mediante Tapatalk

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NC opened way too early and our numbers look awful now. We have a Democrat governor and so far I think we're the only state where the possibility of going back into a lockdown has been mentioned. I don't think you can put that genie back in the bottle though, so it'll be interesting to see what the next few months bring. Wife and I rarely go out but when we do, we wear masks, but some of the pictures around Charlotte this past weekend are just crazy.

Enviado desde mi SM-G973U mediante Tapatalk



Oof yea.. both Carolinas are pretty orange/ red according to the NYtimes data hot spot map
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I still haven't gotten tested, but I halfway suspect that I had it back in February. If not, I am probably screwed now. My son and his girlfriend just flew to Virginia to pick up her car and are driving it back to Texas with a few day stop in Kentucky along the way.

You know, I told him one thing. Don't go to Virginia and don't stop to see your friends. I swear, I'm gonna go junior on his ass.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/world/coronavirus-live-updates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

On Sunday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said that the state had been deluged with some 25,000 complaints about businesses that “are in violation of the reopening plan.  Specifically, Mr. Cuomo said that bar patrons in Manhattan and the Hamptons on Long Island had been flouting the rules, and warned that if local officials did not crack down on such behavior the state could be forced to suspend reopening plans.

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Oh, and here is the Mayor.  I see lack of social distancing and lack of proper mask wearing.  This is ridiculous.  He and Cuomo have lost a lot of credibility.  It is summer in NYC.  Shit needs to open.  

And for those that say protests are sacred, well my right to pursue happiness has been all but stopped for the last 3 months.  This shit is done.

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Here come the lawsuits - this one being directed at the FDA from the AAPS

AAPS News June 2020 – AAPS Sues FDA

Quote

The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (https://aapsonline.org) filed a lawsuit against Department of Health and Human Services and the FDA for “irrational interference” by the FDA with timely access to hydroxychloroquine.

Quote

AAPS asks the court to enjoin the enforcement of the restrictions in the Mar 28 EUA; to make available and distribute promptly, for the benefit of the public, HCQ from the SNS; and to enjoin FDA, the Biomedical Advance Research & Development Authority (BARDA), and HHS from impeding the distribution, sale, or purchase of HCQ by members of the public during the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

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40 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Here come the lawsuits - this one being directed at the FDA from the AAPS

AAPS News June 2020 – AAPS Sues FDA

 

The AAPS needs to be more respectful of the sensibilities of the FDA and the pharma industry. Pharma just needs more time to develop new, extremely expensive drugs to combat covid. Hydroxychloroquine, which is off patent, wouldn’t be very profitable for pharma, now would it?

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6 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Hospitalizations in the Austin MSA definitely going up, from the 80-100 range during May, now 129. 

I do wish these public announcements included a bit of nuance - instead of an aggregate total, they broke cases by region (within the cities) and included more demographics (specifically age).  

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1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Honestly, the protests here have been massive.  There seems to be zero leg to stand on here by both NY State and NY City officials.  You have let protests do whatever the hell they want to do for 2-3 weeks.  It is time to let us go shopping and go sit at an outdoor bar if we so wish.  

This is the Black Trans Lives Matter protest in Brooklyn yesterday.  I am not seeing a lot of social distancing going on.

 

Did I miss something in the news that necessitated a black-trans-specific protest or are they just being attention horses?

Edited by Scary Stranger
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15 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I do wish these public announcements included a bit of nuance - instead of an aggregate total, they broke cases by region (within the cities) and included more demographics (specifically age).  

Are you saying that because you're interested in knowing, or because you believe the public announcements should be stressing something other than just the aggregate totals?  

If it's the former, then you can see most of the data you're asking for at this link: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

Edited by utee94
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1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Are you saying that because you're interested in knowing, or because you believe the public announcements should be stressing something other than just the aggregate totals?  

If it's the former, then you can see most of the data you're asking for at this link: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

That's exactly what I was looking for, thanks.  

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This is fairly interesting...

https://www.immunizationinfo.com/mmr-vaccine-may-protect-against-covid-19/

 

An investigation by the World Health Organization suggests that MMR vaccines may help protect adults over 50 from COVID-19.

The experts pointed out that there have been only 4 deaths from COVID-19 reported in Hong Kong, a city in close proximity to China.

Hong Kong started giving out free MMR vaccines adults in 2019 and continued this program into 2020. Hong Kong has also had a mass-immunization program to give MMR vaccines to everyone under 19 years old since 1997.

Hong Kong has nearly the same population as New York City. The difference is that there have been over 12,500 deaths from COVID-19 in New York City, where MMR vaccines are only given to children.

Furthermore, a recent study by neuroscientists at the University of Cambridge found similarities between the viruses in the MMR vaccine and COVID-19, which could provide protection against infections.

The study found similarities between the virus that causes COVID-19 and the viruses that cause measles, mumps, and rubella — the three diseases covered by the MMR vaccine.

Most interestingly, the scientists identified a 29% homology between the rubella virus in the MMR vaccine and the COVID-19 virus.

The neuroscientists suggested vaccinating “at risk” age groups with an MMR vaccine merits further consideration as quick way to slow the wave of COVID-19 illnesses and death for older adults.

The MMR vaccine was introduced in 1971. It is given as a childhood vaccine in the U.S., which is why most adults over the age of 50 have not received it.

Coronavirus is far more likely to kill adults over 50 years old in the U.S. — but in countries that have created vaccination “catch up” programs where MMR vaccines are commonly given to adults, there appears to be a far lower death-rate from COVID-19.

One small country in Asia — Bhutan — with zero COVID-19 deaths, has vaccinated nearly its entire population of both children and adults with the MMR vaccine.

 

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10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

An investigation by the World Health Organization suggests that MMR vaccines may help protect adults over 50 from COVID-19.

Very interesting. Would like to know any safety issues with giving this to us old farts who haven't had the MMR. I assume its a very low risk item since we have been giving it to kids for 50 years. 

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22 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Very interesting. Would like to know any safety issues with giving this to us old farts who haven't had the MMR. I assume its a very low risk item since we have been giving it to kids for 50 years. 

My reading indicates that women who plan on getting pregnant are tested for rubella and given the mmr vaccine if they haven’t already had it, because rubella is bad for pregnancies. @oobe might weigh in if he’s still around. Maybe @ChiTownDoc has some experience in that area. 

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8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If you got one as a kid, you don’t need another, right?  Or is this some sort of booster?

and let me understand this correctly- we developed the mmr vaccine in 1971 and inoculated children, but never bothered with adults?

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html#:~:text=Children,days%20after%20the%20first%20dose.

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51 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Are you saying that because you're interested in knowing, or because you believe the public announcements should be stressing something other than just the aggregate totals?  

If it's the former, then you can see most of the data you're asking for at this link: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

I think you know this already because you've been on the Texas re-opening thread, so this is more for anyone here interested. There's also this:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb

 

Which shows that day's new hospital admits and 7 day moving average. In the past five days we've more than doubled our previous high for 7-day moving average, and four of the last five days have set records for new hospital admits in Austin. We're definitely in the middle of a huge upward trend. What's TBD is whether it's going to be a blip caused by Memorial Day and the protests, or the start of a larger, more concerning trend. But unlike cases, hospitalizations won't really be influenced by other factors (IE increases in testing). Ball don't lie.

Edited by BradInATX
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54 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Are you saying that because you're interested in knowing, or because you believe the public announcements should be stressing something other than just the aggregate totals?  

If it's the former, then you can see most of the data you're asking for at this link: https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

That's awesome. Thanks for posting.

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24 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I wonder if the mmr shot is a reason why it affects men more than women. Women born before it was available may have received it during pre-natal care. Men don’t have that impetus to have been inoculated. 

That would make a lot of sense  

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2 hours ago, Scary Stranger said:

Did I miss something in the news that necessitated a black-trans-specific protest or are they just being attention horses?

There’s been a lot of black trans murders with no attention.  Trans black individuals are disproportionally the victims of fatal violence. 

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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