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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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Looking at GA again, focusing on the counties that make up ~56K of the remaining ~61K, if you ramp up the Biden share (from the current margins) to:

Fulton - 90%

Chatham - 80%

Cobb - 80%

Gwinnett - 80%

and leave everything else at the current margin share, then that takes Trump's lead down to 7380.  

So, it looks like GA won't get done for Biden without provisional ballots, and it might not at that.  

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Allegheny County, PA still has 35,413 uncounted mail-in ballots, but elections staff is taking today off for "administrative work" and will not resume count until Friday.

For those of you wondering - welcome to public sector work. Most likely they are doing either required training and/or some HR stuff like performance reviews. Happens all the time in state projects where you'll be cruising right along and then suddenly two programmers have to finish "required training" for some arbitrary deadline set by some middle manager or something. They have plenty of time to finish the ballots legally and aren't going to freak out.

Another is that they have help from other areas of the secretary of state's office and they need to catch up on their "day jobs" before finishing.

Lots of possibilities. 

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9 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Might as well take Friday off too and just make it a long weekend. No hurry, there might still be an America left when you come back to work on Monday. 

They must think this is 2000 when the only way you get a demonstration is that you have party operatives show up and get paid to act upset. This is not a normal election and time is of the essence. You don't give people time to stew when the electorate is so polarized. 

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17 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

A GOP-controlled Supreme Court literally stole an election in recent memory and the Democratic Party basically just shrugged and went "welp, that's democracy for you!"

They also did not challenge 2004 at all even though it was ultimately decided by one state with a turnout of 5.5M+ with a margin of about 100k votes (2nd closest state on the board). It's extremely dishonest to pull this whataboutism horseshit regarding fucking elections regardless of how many gifs of Shaquille O'Neal that screamers want to post. 

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15 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Also, and this is why I am feeling very pessimistic....    If this supposed swing for Biden where he ends up with a 200-300k lead is going to happen, we should be seeing more significant swings.   Since last night, there has been a very modest 40k swing or so with only about 10k of that since around 8:00.   

There "could" be anywhere from 400-700k votes out there but with Allegheny saying they are pretty much done (and that was only about 30-35k) how do we get to +200k for Biden.    

The numbers need to start moving and pretty drastically or this is not going to happen.

I don’t think it will be a 200k Biden win. But any lead is going to be padded a bit by the late arriving mail in votes. 

Another thing to consider is that provisional ballots in PA might break slightly for Trump. Republicans had a 10% lower return rate on mail in ballots, my guess is because the requested them when they voted by mail in the primary at the beginning of the pandemic and requested their general election ballot to be sent by mail and then after Trump guided them to the polls they struck their MIB and filled out a provisional one

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I think it falls the opposite way.  R turnout for a special election with Biden in office will be off the charts.  They will do everything they can to blunt the presidency by keeping the senate.  
Traditional Rs yes, but a vast majority of new trumptards could not tell you who their senator is. Think 2018 numbers vs 2020
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14 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Trump cannot win PA by vote.  He has a silver of a shot via SC.

Trump could win GA.  That's basically a 50/50 toss up.

Trump could win AZ and NV but those are unlikely scenarios.

He needs them all.

He just needs three successful onside kicks in the next 47 seconds.

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17 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Everyone knew PA was going to go into overtime with its vote count due to their state leg not allowing early counts of early votes.  Did no one in their office realize there was a national fucking election on the calendar right next to this Administration Day?

Government employees 

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So is DOTARD still flying to Nevada on the taxpayers dime to contest the election? And why isn't Biden mentioning if I win, you won't find me traveling around and staying at my own properties, depositing American taxpayer dollars into my personal accounts.  

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29 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

For the love of jesus

 

I posted about this earlier this morning: 

The only remaining ballots there (35,000) need to be “examined”. A big group of of those, potentially as many as 29,000, are from voters that got the wrong ballots. The company in Ohio that printed those ballots assigned the wrong addresses. So you may have had the wrong down ballot races on your ballot. I don’t know what they plan to do with those. The rest are ballots that didn’t have the security envelope or were damaged in the mail. Those won’t be examined until tomorrow for some reason

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My church has announced it is taking a Pastoral Day on December 24th and April 4th.  

And my local Irish pub is taking a Staff Teambuilding Day on March 14th.  

Seriously Pennsylvania?  This is going to be the new meme picture for..."You had ONE JOB!" for at least a decade.  

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17 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

Pennsylvania attorney general Josh Shapiro criticized Donald Trump’s reelection campaign for suing to halt vote-counting in the pivotal swing state.

“I’m not going to let anyone stop that process of counting,” Shapiro told MSNBC. “These are legal votes. They will be counted.”

Shapiro accused the president of trying to draw election officials into a political battle, when the focus should be on counting the remaining ballots.

“The rhetoric needs to go away,” Shapiro said. “The campaign is over.”

Shapiro’s re-election also relies on counting all of the votes. He was behind on election night but took the lead as the mail in ballots got counted yesterday. 

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36 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Fox News this morning paraphrasing. Trump did not lose he just got beat so he does not have to feel like a loser. Are they trying to put his mind at ease since they can read the tea leaves in Pennsylvania?

Trump didn't lose, he just ran out of time.

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15 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Somehow this mouth breather has 1.2mn Twitter followers. 
 

 

The party of constitutional scholars and originalists.  Inaugurations were in March until 1937 because of how long it took to count and report ballots.  

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2 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Not a bad idea leading up to St. Patrick's Day, on the 17th.

Yeah, my bad.  We celebrated it on the 14th (a Saturday) earlier this year because the writing was on the wall that bars would be closed on that Tuesday.  8 months later, I'm still drunk.

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17 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Biden needs roughly 42-45k of those?

According to CNN about 5 minutes ago, Trump's lead in GA is 18147 with 61367 outstanding.  Biden would need 39757 to win by 1, which is about 64.8%.

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FWIW-Greg Gutfeld and Juan Williams on our TXOGA zoom call right now both saying that Trump has lost the election.  I doubt they'd say it on FoxNews, but they're both deferring to Biden and talking about the new D/R dynamic.  Kinda refreshing in a weird way.

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