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MrPhlegm

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Scuttlebutt from Steven Godfrey/Richard Johnson:

  • Lanning is waiting on Bama and Oregon is gonna fight not to get poached again
  • Duke is capable of matching what they think A&M would pay for him (~8 a year) but a matter of Duke wanting to go there for him
  • Traylor pros is that he'd be relatively cheap and obviously he'd be a recruiting witch
  • Ole Miss isn't gonna fight to keep Lane if he does his bullshit again, plus he's already at 9 a year
  • Not a lot of belief that they'd go after another Florida State hc
  • DeBoer not mentioned at all which is telling on its own
  • Urban is near 0% odds (I wanted to see that personally)
  • Long shot is former Aggy QB/Texans QB coach Jerrod Johnson

Elko/Traylor would be the current favorites

Edited by Teryor
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27 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I've watched this twice and I'm trying to put to words what it is that makes Bjork so off-putting.  Is he some kinda AI bot?  Tries to sound all badass after firing a coach.  Decorum states one should be rather solemn after that.  Be clear that a change needed to be made, thank Fisher for his service, say some nice things about him then move on to next week.  He spent a lot of time talking about the buyout and slobbering over fans.  Weird,  Like he's that snotty shitstain at work who thinks he's CEO material and can get there by repeating buzzwords and sounding assertive.

There's also the weird way he "takes responsibility" for things but it's apparent he did nothing about any of them until he decided to fire Jimbo. For example, he admitted he's finally going to learn -- this coming week -- all about college football coach contracts and what he did wrong in 2021.

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1 hour ago, ChickenNuggets said:

Bjork is so stupid... I rewatched his presser... He actually thinks the current coaching staff is going to give a damn about finishing this season strong rather than looking for new jobs themselves... Any new coach is going to bring in their own staff... 

Also, as mentioned above, their 12th man foundation is going to pay the immediate buy-out expenses. But the annual buy-out expenses are going to come from their athletic program - funding sources to be determined as their current revenue streams are already tied up funding other expenses.... 

Pubes and Bjork must talk because Looch after the Ole Miss loss stated the reasons that would cause aggy to get rid of Jimbo. The reasons Looch outlined were almost word for word as what Bjork stated in his presser.

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5 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Pubes and Bjork must talk because Looch after the Ole Miss loss stated the reasons that would cause aggy to get rid of Jimbo. The reasons Looch outlined were almost word for word as what Bjork stated in his presser.

Yes. TexAgs has been intimately involved in the operation of their athletic department since its inception. They’ve made the decision to hire and fire coaches before. 

Edited by Tex Pete
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7 hours ago, ryskey said:

Holy shit.  This is unconscionable.  

UT, whether implied by tradition or some express bylaw or something (do you know?), keeps these separate in part because it's borderline fraudulent.  If something like this was done by a normal corporation or legal entity, its audit would come back dirty AF.  Like a 501(c)3 founded to help low income kids funding the CEO's hookers and blow.  If UT did anything like this (hopefully we never have?), faculty/staff would freak out and protest, and I would probably join them. 

So they're creating a financial instrument for this buyout and hiring the next staff with collateral from a fund with an express purpose for academic-related capital projects.  So this is waaaaaaaaay more than the sticker price we're all looking at.  It's an artificially low cost of capital by design for academic stuff and I don't know what kind of mental gymnastics they're going to use to justify this.  The "right" way to do this (if that's even possible) would be for the athletic department to pay a higher cost of capital than a normal AUF bond, tracked by some capital account, thereby giving a nice little rate spread to the academic side and allowing them to save a little face and retain the plausible deniability of remaining as an academic institution.  But I highly doubt they're going to do that.

Is there some payout schedule or is this all at once?  Either way, I guess it has to be financed.  Bought a Fiero at a Ferrari price, on credit, wrecked it, now stuck with the note.

fixed ...

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42 minutes ago, Teryor said:

Scuttlebutt from Steven Godfrey/Richard Johnson:

  • Lanning is waiting on Bama and Oregon is gonna fight not to get poached again
  • Duke is capable of matching what they think A&M would pay for him (~8 a year) but a matter of Duke wanting to go there for him
  • Traylor pros is that he'd be relatively cheap and obviously he'd be a recruiting witch
  • Ole Miss isn't gonna fight to keep Lane if he does his bullshit again, plus he's already at 9 a year
  • Not a lot of belief that they'd go after another Florida State hc
  • DeBoer not mentioned at all which is telling on its own
  • Urban is near 0% odds (I wanted to see that personally)
  • Long shot is former Aggy QB/Texans QB coach Jerrod Johnson

Elko/Traylor would be the current favorites

Jerrod Johnson would be terrific. 

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The Athletic has an article on the payout.

https://theathletic.com/5056311/2023/11/12/buyout-jimbo-fisher-contract/

 

Quote

And for those who think Texas A&M’s boosters are footing the bill, think again. Program sources have told The Athletic multiple times in the past year that if Fisher were fired, donors wouldn’t be the ones paying the buyout. Bjork confirmed as much on Sunday.

So the question is, how likely is it that aggy's Sports program borrows money from the academic side of the house.

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8 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Conclusion: Aggy is flailing and made an impulsive decision after losing to Ole Miss (or Tennessee).

How do we know this? There's only two possibilities: (1) it was planned before those losses or (2) it wasn't. Let's use the process of elimination to determine which of these possibilities is more likely.

  1. If this had been planned out...
    • Jimbo probably should have been given a chance to talk to his team.
    • The search for a replacement should be much further along if not already done.
    • There would be basically nothing to gain from releasing the coach this late into the season.
    • Every penny of the buyout as well as the true cost of getting the new staff (consultants, interviews, onboarding, the contracts themselves) would have been budgeted
  2. If this was not planned out...
    • Dumpster fire optics
    • No clear frontrunner.
    • Players hitting the portal early.
    • Weasel words in the presser about how the buyout will be paid and no details about the true cost of the decision.

I feel pretty safe in concluding that Aggy leadership made a rash decision here with suboptimal consequences to ensue.

Thinking Aloud: Why would Aggy make such an important decision impulsively rather than strategically?

I'll treat two related questions separately here: (1) Why fire Jimbo Fisher and (2) Why fire him now?

1. He hadn't been winning (duh) but from Aggy's perspective the decision to fire is more complicated than that. It is affected by the $76 million dollar elephant in the room and can't be made exclusively based on whether he's winning--you ALSO have to (A) reach a firm (and I mean VERY firm) belief that Jimbo is not going to turn things around and (B) convince yourself that the cost of delaying the inevitable is greater than the cost of the buyout. Part A is the "leash" most coaches at other programs get for at least two years, although when the expectations are so high that you're receiving national championship plaques based on the foregone conclusions of your future successes, it's fair to say that the leash would have been a bit shorter in Collie Station than anywhere else. Good thing for Jimbo there's that Part B, which had the perverse effect of greatly lengthening the leash.

Part B, again, is about the appraised value of the future success Aggy believes (in its mind) it would be missing out on because of Jimbo's performance compared to the knowable dollar amount it would cost to break up with Jimbo.  You don't fire him unless this appraised value is pretty high. Even in a mediocre season, Aggy football probably makes a decent amount of money. So how much more would Aggy be making if their team had been CFP contenders, and how much more does Aggy believe (in its mind) it could make? Not much, and a whole lot, respectively.

Aggy therefore appraised its hypothetical future success an astronomical amount. When the case could be made, behind closed doors, that the only thing standing between Aggy and that hypothetical future success was Jimbo Fisher, it would not be a matter of if, but when and how, to fire him.

2. Why now? This gets back to Aggy's self-appraisal of the value of its hypothetical future success in the absence of Fisher. Like a married man convinced he would be drowning in a sea of post-separation pussy, Aggy reasoned to itself that the quicker the bandage is ripped the quicker they could transition to those hypothetical future successes. But...

...that doesn't quite answer the question of why now because it leaves unanswered the question of why not before? After all, all the same factors were in place last season. His trajectory was near or worse than Sumlin's, and you don't pay top dollar to get the exact same results. What could it be, then?

Dana Carvey What GIF by Saturday Night Live

I wonder, what is different about 2023 that makes the prospect of another year of Jimbo Fisher absolutely intolerable? Did they really think, in 2022, that Jimbo's team would turn a corner this season? I suppose anything is possible. So rather than draw any firm conclusions I'll simply speculate.

An Educated Guess: Jimbo Fisher already would have been a dead man walking into the 2024 season; the looming possibility of an embarrassing narrative (Jimbo's firing caused by a loss to Texas) so terrified Aggy that they were spooked into an impulsive decision intended to pre-emptively squash that possibility, consequences (and budget) be damned.

TLDR: $100M paid for a built-in excuse for losing to us in 2024.

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15 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

TLDR: $100M paid for a built-in excuse for losing to us in 2024.

If Jimbo stayed, they would play through next season likely losing 4 games and end up with a team with poor morale, a dead coach walking, and having players sit out their administration’s Super Bowl against Texas.

Now, while yes they have a built in excuse (1st year head coach) they also can tell them (similar to what UH told coach redbull) you can go 1-11 next year as long as that 1 win is against Texas.

The next coach will design their offensive and defensive identity around creating the optimal base scheme that will most effective against Texas. Spring ball, fall camp, and every bye week will be focused on Texas. The coaches will watch and analyze film on Texas all season long and will have the team prepared to play spoiler.

Their best chance at beating us is letting the mercenary players go back to New Jersey or Tennessee, and build a roster full of true believers in a coach (like Traylor, who imo would be the worst hire for us since he can leverage his Wast Texas roots and THSFB coaching connections, but aggy is hopefully too proud to go after a UTSA coach) who are in it for the long haul. They could only do this with a new coach with proper expectations set in advance of hiring. No way you could do that with a year seven Jimbo.

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5 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

If Jimbo stayed, they would play through next season likely losing 4 games and end up with a team with poor morale, a dead coach walking, and having players sit out their administration’s Super Bowl against Texas.

Now, while yes they have a built in excuse (1st year head coach) they also can tell them (similar to what UH told coach redbull) you can go 1-11 next year as long as that 1 win is against Texas.

The next coach will design their offensive and defensive identity around creating the optimal base scheme that will most effective against Texas. Spring ball, fall camp, and every bye week will be focused on Texas. The coaches will watch and analyze film on Texas all season long and will have the team prepared to play spoiler.

Their best chance at beating us is letting the mercenary players go back to New Jersey or Tennessee, and build a roster full of true believers in a coach (like Traylor, who imo would be the worst hire for us since he can leverage his Wast Texas roots and THSFB coaching connections, but aggy is hopefully too proud to go after a UTSA coach) who are in it for the long haul. They could only do this with a new coach with proper expectations set in advance of hiring. No way you could do that with a year seven Jimbo.

To be totally honest, I don't think anyone on the short lists is the answer. Traylor has been good but this season has been a clear regression. Who fires Jimbo Fisher for a resume like that? Recruiting is only one part of the job, and it goes without saying that getting overlooked players to come to UTSA is very different from attracting 5 star guys (and using the portal). Meanwhile Duke just lost to Butterteeth.

I'm impressed by most of these coaches, but I don't think you can convince a board room full of upset and delusional alums that this is the guy who's going to rebuild it right. I agree that any of them could but not a single one of them has had sustained long-term success.

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You lot are so behind. Prepare yourselves for the genius mastermind, aggy! In the underground lair of secret negotiations, aggy has been cooking up a plan so slick it makes James Bond's gadgets look like child's play. The 4D chessboard is set, the pawns are in motion, and the execution is smoother than a penguin on ice.

Move over, Ted Lasso, because aggy's about to drop a bombshell in the world of sports strategy. Forget football coaches – we're talking soccer maestros turning American football into a symphony of touchdown dances. There's a british premier league coach on the way, thats all I can say for now.. (hint: turn on your flight trackers from Liverpool to CS).

The cherry on top? Apple is about to dip into its deep pockets to cover Jimbo's payout with the proceeds from the super mega hit documentary. 

Stay tuned, because the sports world is about to get a makeover, and Aggy's the designer-in-chief!

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8 hours ago, Teryor said:

Traylor pros is that he'd be relatively cheap and obviously he'd be a recruiting witch

I think this is who they end up getting....but it could just be the Aggies in SA posturing. I do listen to Traylor's radio interviews and it doesn't sound like he's happy with the lack of commitment to improving facilities at UTSA, especially now that they're AAC. He was just complaining that they can't even build an indoor practice facility when ALL other schools in their conference have one. 

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6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I think this is who they end up getting....but it could just be the Aggies in SA posturing. I do listen to Traylor's radio interviews and it doesn't sound like he's happy with the lack of commitment to improving facilities at UTSA, especially now that they're AAC. He was just complaining that they can't even build an indoor practice facility when ALL other schools in their conference have one. 

Yep, goes back to timing too. The other candidates like Lanning or Elko, I don't think there is any reason to jump this early. Traylor is one that I can't see still coaching at UTSA next season regardless just because of all the other opening that are about to occur this year.

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5 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Yep, goes back to timing too. The other candidates like Lanning or Elko, I don't think there is any reason to jump this early. Traylor is one that I can't see still coaching at UTSA next season regardless just because of all the other opening that are about to occur this year.

Also they had a vote recently about increasing the athletic fee for students at UTSA and it failed to pass. 

 

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The Bjork press conference is...interesting. 

Bjork mentioned a very contentious board meeting last Thursday. He implied that there may have been shouting. 

Following the meeting but prior to the MS game, he claims he informed Welsh that Fisher wasn't working out and that they needed a change. I'm calling bullshit on that one.

I think powers that be delivered an ultimatum to Bjork. "You created this mess and if you don't fire him, you're gone, too."

When I think of Bjork's version about him calling Welsh and telling him a change was needed, I think of Bernie Madoff's version of his downfall, where he claims he called his sons into his study and confessed to them that he had been perpetrating a fraud over the last 35 years. Yeah, they didn't know. Sure, that's what happened.

Is Bjork next? He should be.

I actually feel sorry for the people who have financially supported their football program. The financial mismanagement is borderline criminal .

   

FROM SI: On Sunday, just before 9 a.m., Bjork and Welsh met with Fisher inside Kyle Field to inform him they were making an immediate change. Bjork said the meeting was “quick and cordial.”

We so need video for this one. 

 

BONUS EDIT: There is a strong spin going on right now on Texags that this firing should scare the rest of the college football world cause it shows how Texas A&M doesn't tolerate mediocre results and will pay any price for excellence. I have no words for this. 

 

Edited by TreatyOak
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8 hours ago, Chopper said:

There's also the weird way he "takes responsibility" for things but it's apparent he did nothing about any of them until he decided to fire Jimbo. For example, he admitted he's finally going to learn -- this coming week -- all about college football coach contracts and what he did wrong in 2021.

The a&m AD position is nothing but the mouthpiece and boot shiner for Sharp. Exactly the same as loochi's position.

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