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What does college football look like in 20 years?


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playing school has largely become secondary.  Universities are now just trying to make sure that they remain the NFL's "minor league/D-League". Which the NFL likes also fortunately for them.

In theory, based on the actual university mission, they'd let a minor league happen naturally with high school kids and then you'd have a team full of unlikely NFL prospects playing 4 years and getting a degree.  Yes the football would be FCS level at best but eventually you'd still be cheering for the Longhorns to win the College Football National Championship.

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NFL lite, even moreso than today. Having said that, it will still be a unique product compared to the NFL and superior in every way.

Having said that, not looking that far down the road, just enjoying this fantastic season. Volleyball is kicking ass as usual and I don't even care! In years past that would be the brightest spot of this time of year, but I think those days are over!

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4 hours ago, Jkwellborn said:


lol. That will be some crazy shit. They gonna have local reps by state, school, conference? Also, if you think it’s fucked now, wait and see what it’s like if that happens.

It would be interesting to see what the scabs might look like on the field……similar to 77-0 aggy?

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56 minutes ago, 59 Burst said:

The minute football players are officially recognized as employees and the universities are recognized as employers the sport as we know it dies.

I can just imagine wage and hour showing up at the local university. 

This.  Then NFL panics because it’s subsidized minor league is threatened.  So it has to act.  There will be 30-60 minor league teams governed by NFL similar to G league but  leveraging the current college football infrastructure. The schools and NFL come up with a revenue share to allow teams to use college names and stadiums, practice facilities etc.  Student athlete idea is mostly gone but so is safety net for players.  Recruiting stays same but it’s totally for profit for everyone. 

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1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

playing school has largely become secondary.  Universities are now just trying to make sure that they remain the NFL's "minor league/D-League". Which the NFL likes also fortunately for them.

In theory, based on the actual university mission, they'd let a minor league happen naturally with high school kids and then you'd have a team full of unlikely NFL prospects playing 4 years and getting a degree.  Yes the football would be FCS level at best but eventually you'd still be cheering for the Longhorns to win the College Football National Championship.

This will sound like heresy but I would prefer that. It’s why the other college sports (except basketball to a large extent) are so enjoyable. 

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4 hours ago, 59 Burst said:

The minute football players are officially recognized as employees and the universities are recognized as employers the sport as we know it dies.

I can just imagine wage and hour showing up at the local university. 

Wage and Hour?  Try HR...

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4 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

A cap is coming

 

3 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

How? The schools themselves aren't paying beyond the scholarship and "full cost of tuition". NIL collectives are associated with the school, but they're playing for a players name, image, and likeness, not paying them to play sports....Like an NFL player getting endorsements that technically have nothing to do with their team contract. 

Two things I think will have to happen long term are changes to the transfer rules, and changes in NIL contracts to multi-year. We've gone guardrail to guardrail with transfer rules. I'd be in favor of something like 1 "free" transfer, then you have to sit out a year if you transfer a second time. Maybe a waiver if the head coach gets fired or something, but this model of kids looking to transfer every season for a better NIL deal are unsustainable. Then maybe put buyouts in multi-year NIL deals. If you want to transfer to play QB at Auburn, Auburn NIL has to pay your buyout to Georgia's NIL collective or whatever.  

Employee status and caps would not undo NIL. NIL is the inevitable result of living in a market economy-- people are allowed to decide how to spend their money and to make deals with other people. As long as CFB is in demand, it will exist in some format. Compliance will be chasing a different list of concerns, but the world will keep turning, long after the NCAA has withered into irrelevance.

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7 hours ago, TexArcher said:

Everything that's happened over the last several years has been moving toward two superconferences.  Why would things suddenly start shifting toward four conferences?  Does anyone really think the SEC or Big 10 will allow themselves to be cleaved in half?

I think we'll end up with two conferences of 24 to 28 teams, max.  

The difference is that with all the past additions, they have been accretive to the revenue pie.  Adding teams made more money for the existing conference members.  OU and Texas are better than average SEC teams and bring additional eyeballs.  All the west coast teams brought the Big 10 eyes in some huge markets.  There isn't a lot left.  The ONLY team left for the SEC that wouldn't be dilutive would be Notre Dame or maybe UNC.  They already have flagships in all the states with remaining decent programs. The Big 10 can add a bunch of schools like FSU, Virginia, etc. where they currently have no presence.

I see us ending up with 3 major conferences:  SEC, Big 10 and Big 12.  The fact that there are still some good assets in the ACC will ironically seal its doom.  FSU, UNC, Virginia and either Miami or Clemson will get divided up between the SEC and Big 10.  The remaining good assets will get gobbled up by the Big 12 - and will fit perfectly.  Virginia Tech, Pitt, Duke, either Clemson or Miami, maybe NC State, maybe Louisville.  The rest will join has bens like Oregon State and Stanford and wind up in rag tag conferences that are regional.  

I think the 3 main conferences will contractually get a lions share of the playoff spots.  SEC and Big 10 probably get 3 each.  Big 12 gets 2.  Leaving 4 at-large.  Maybe one spot gets reserved for the pool of also-rans as long as they are in the top-25 or something (and a conference champ). 

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7 hours ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

Texas has 10 national championships. 

how the fuck did this take until the 23rd post?

 

7 hours ago, TexArcher said:

I would really love to see this.  It makes European soccer leagues fascinating to the last day for most teams.

they have to do this because 9/10 of the teams are out of the race for the championship after the first week.

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I hate to say it...and I won't be here to see it...but there won't be college football in 20 years. The huge growth of the athletes, and violence of the game, along with runaway money involved will be it's demise and it will be a part of history. The lid has been ripped off of Pandoras Box and it's too late to save it.

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3 hours ago, dec3169 said:

Wage and Hour?  Try HR...

If that’s tongue in cheek disregard all this bullshit?

HR is nothing more than an apparatus or extension of a company’s law department. The eyes and ears so to speak. Most employees incorrectly believe HR to be their friend, but that is not their job at all. Their job is pretty much to protect the company. Putting out small fires before they become big ones. If you found help in the process of a complaint, good deal. Chances are whatever your issue was, was detrimental to the company. 

Wage and hour on the other hand enforces wages, record keeping, overtime, David Bacon and The service contract act including the Fair labor standards act. Not to mention FMLA, garnishment of wages, polygraph testing, pretty much everything. And when there is an issue the letter you receive has United States of America vs whoever they are going after on the letterhead. It’s intimidating I don’t care who you are. 
 

Can you imagine such a group with oversight over all of college football? Including its athletic directors, chancellors, or board members. All one disgruntled player would have to do is go to their local federal building and file a complaint. And unlike the NCAA (DOL) wage and hour has subpoena power. Discovery would also be a hell of a story should it come into play.

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13 hours ago, Ignatius said:

It’ll look the same as it does now - a bunch of old dudes bitching about how all the players now are fucking pussies compared to the tough old guys and how the music in the stadium is shitty and too loud.

And people will still watch/attend every week…

At least they won't be boomers.

That will take the complaining down by at least 25%.

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5 hours ago, 59 Burst said:

If that’s tongue in cheek disregard all this bullshit?

HR is nothing more than an apparatus or extension of a company’s law department. The eyes and ears so to speak. Most employees incorrectly believe HR to be their friend, but that is not their job at all. Their job is pretty much to protect the company. Putting out small fires before they become big ones. If you found help in the process of a complaint, good deal. Chances are whatever your issue was, was detrimental to the company. 

Wage and hour on the other hand enforces wages, record keeping, overtime, David Bacon and The service contract act including the Fair labor standards act. Not to mention FMLA, garnishment of wages, polygraph testing, pretty much everything. And when there is an issue the letter you receive has United States of America vs whoever they are going after on the letterhead. It’s intimidating I don’t care who you are. 
 

Can you imagine such a group with oversight over all of college football? Including its athletic directors, chancellors, or board members. All one disgruntled player would have to do is go to their local federal building and file a complaint. And unlike the NCAA (DOL) wage and hour has subpoena power. Discovery would also be a hell of a story should it come into play.

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I hate to say it...and I won't be here to see it...but there won't be college football in 20 years. The huge growth of the athletes, and violence of the game, along with runaway money involved will be it's demise and it will be a part of history. The lid has been ripped off of Pandoras Box and it's too late to save it.
I beg to differ. The money involved makes the violence part irrelevant when it comes to CFB going away. Remember just a few years ago when concussion talk was all over the news and we wondered how many parents would still allow their son to play tackle football? Enter NIL and some states even allowing high school players to benefit, that issue goes away pretty quickly. The game may look different in some ways vs today, (like watching a taped 90's game vs one in the past 15 years) but it wont go away unless another sport takes over that can get 100k+ fans to overpay to sit in scorching heat, rain or bitter cold while wolfing down overpriced beer and shitty bar food.
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59 minutes ago, ousux said:

The game may look different in some ways vs today, (like watching a taped 90's game vs one in the past 15 years) but it wont go away unless another sport takes over that can get 100k+ fans to overpay to sit in scorching heat, rain or bitter cold while wolfing down overpriced beer and shitty bar food.

 

Now hear me out here, but what about flag football, but with women. And not flags per say, but one flag is the bra, one flag is the panties. That might get some attention. (Which is where the LFL originally failed.)

 

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I'd love to go back to the regionalism of yesteryear as much as anyone but that ship has frankly sailed with the amount of TV and NIL money in the sport. Money is the number one factor at the administrative level as well as for the talent on the field. There is no going back.

What I hope we get to is the top however many schools forming their own NFL lite super league and competing in a separate division, essentially autonomous from the NCAA or at least governed with their own set of rules, and we can get back to sensible conferences for the rest of the sport. As dumb as it is that Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA will be playing conference football games against Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, and Ohio State; Cal and Stanford will be playing conference football games against Syracuse and Georgia Tech; and Utah, Arizona,  and Arizona State are playing UCF and West Virginia... it is orders of magnitude dumber that those are now conference games in more schedule/travel intensive non revenue sports.

It's one thing to acknowledge, implicitly or explicitly, that football is purely about money now, but the latest round of realignment will really fuck with non-revenue sports where athletes are actually students. Let the cash cow that is football fund a good experience for students, alumni, and fans of the rest of college athletics.

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Agreed. NIL as implemented is the stupidest fucking fail related to sports that I can recall. the idea that the average fan should keep chucking in more money (in addition to ever increasing ticket costs, $14 beers, etc...) so that their team can have a chance of winning is idiotic. It will be an arms race with little self restraint on the part of the bidders. If players want to get paid, let the schools pay them.
And then you mix in the abortion that is the transfer portal, and my give  a shit about college athletics has hit all time lows.  Its like the NFL except without a salary cap or contractual obligations.  I get that the current landscape tilts the field in Texas' favor as long as there are enough suckers chipping in their donations, I just dont care. If Cowboys season ticket holders got a letter from Jerry asking for a little something extra to meet payroll, how many do you think would agree to help him out? 
You nailed it. Schools are raking in all the money off these players. It's the same concept as restaurants. They don't pay their employees shit. They have the customers supplement their income. Except at least in that scenario, you are receiving a product and a service. What are people getting in return for paying these players?
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1 hour ago, Brothahorn said:

Best answer. The schools can go back to being schools.

I love CFB. I would miss it.

But the entire idea that universities have athletic departments that are realistically worth billions and football teams that act as an NFL minor league is so random that you couldn't have imagined it if you tried.

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16 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I love CFB. I would miss it.

But the entire idea that universities have athletic departments that are realistically worth billions and football teams that act as an NFL minor league is so random that you couldn't have imagined it if you tried.


just take a look at the salaries of the ad staff at ut 

 

also, former college players (sooner or later) will be asking for post career medical care 

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2 hours ago, ousux said:
11 hours ago, SHOOTER12 said:
I hate to say it...and I won't be here to see it...but there won't be college football in 20 years. The huge growth of the athletes, and violence of the game, along with runaway money involved will be it's demise and it will be a part of history. The lid has been ripped off of Pandoras Box and it's too late to save it.

I beg to differ. The money involved makes the violence part irrelevant when it comes to CFB going away. Remember just a few years ago when concussion talk was all over the news and we wondered how many parents would still allow their son to play tackle football? Enter NIL and some states even allowing high school players to benefit, that issue goes away pretty quickly. The game may look different in some ways vs today, (like watching a taped 90's game vs one in the past 15 years) but it wont go away unless another sport takes over that can get 100k+ fans to overpay to sit in scorching heat, rain or bitter cold while wolfing down overpriced beer and shitty bar food.

I hoe you're right.

Or will it be replaced by something else.?

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11 hours ago, 59 Burst said:

If that’s tongue in cheek disregard all this bullshit?

HR is nothing more than an apparatus or extension of a company’s law department. The eyes and ears so to speak. Most employees incorrectly believe HR to be their friend, but that is not their job at all. Their job is pretty much to protect the company. Putting out small fires before they become big ones. If you found help in the process of a complaint, good deal. Chances are whatever your issue was, was detrimental to the company. 

Wage and hour on the other hand enforces wages, record keeping, overtime, David Bacon and The service contract act including the Fair labor standards act. Not to mention FMLA, garnishment of wages, polygraph testing, pretty much everything. And when there is an issue the letter you receive has United States of America vs whoever they are going after on the letterhead. It’s intimidating I don’t care who you are. 
 

Can you imagine such a group with oversight over all of college football? Including its athletic directors, chancellors, or board members. All one disgruntled player would have to do is go to their local federal building and file a complaint. And unlike the NCAA (DOL) wage and hour has subpoena power. Discovery would also be a hell of a story should it come into play.

Wow.  I think you missed where I was going.  Imagine college football players being employees.  How long do you think they would last with HR going after every joke/comment/fight/infraction that happens now on every team?  Players becoming employees would not last long, and the quality of the game would be high school level by the time HR was finished.  

I guess there are some people that don't know what HR *really* does, but they are either new workers, foreign workers, or just plain stupid.

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20 hours ago, 59 Burst said:

The minute football players are officially recognized as employees and the universities are recognized as employers the sport as we know it dies.

I can just imagine wage and hour showing up at the local university. 

In my eyes this sort of thinking is wrong headed. Part of the problem is college football is trying to serve 2 masters at once. On one hand they want to hold on to all the collegial and amateurism of yester year while simultaneously attempting to make every single dollar available to them under the sun. You simply cant do both without causing issues in the sport. If you want to limit player movement you're going to have to put them under contracts and make them employees. You can't restrict player movement without having contracts. The NCAA has lost every case recently where this issue was in contention. Another problem with college football is they need to get away from the decentralized organizing forces of the sport. It needs to be governed under a single set of rules and have someone, or some committee looking out for a the greater good of the sport as whole as opposed to conference entities working as competitors sabotaging each other at every turn in an effort to gain more power. You simply can't reap billions of dollars on one end and then on the other end pretend this isn't a big business and the players aren't due any of that largess. That sort of cognitive dissonance doesn't work anymore. 

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19 hours ago, dcar00 said:

playing school has largely become secondary.  Universities are now just trying to make sure that they remain the NFL's "minor league/D-League". Which the NFL likes also fortunately for them.

In theory, based on the actual university mission, they'd let a minor league happen naturally with high school kids and then you'd have a team full of unlikely NFL prospects playing 4 years and getting a degree.  Yes the football would be FCS level at best but eventually you'd still be cheering for the Longhorns to win the College Football National Championship.

The issue is that football is expensive and there is no market for a minor league.  All the attempts to play at a level a step down fail. The draw with college level is the association with the college, people care about the UT Longhorns. Take the same roster, call them the Travis County Toros….and they won’t draw any more than Westlake or Lake Travis.  Less, probably. 

NIL is just the stupidest shit ever. It’s such a pretense that these players are getting paid for anything but playing ball. Patrick Mahomes can sell his name, image, and likeness if he does to play for Denver next year. No one needs the endorsement of a receiver who has a great year at Grand Valley State and moves to USC, he’s only getting paid because the name on his shirt changed. 
 

The only place where NIL works as advertised is with all these gorgeous gymnasts and swimmers and their pay is unrelated to athletic performance. I still think that’s the area that gets the whole scheme somehow blown up one day. It is a little gross, I have no issue with pretty women marketing their sex appeal but it raises some real questions when they are using state run institutions as the platform. 

 

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2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The only place where NIL works as advertised is with all these gorgeous gymnasts and swimmers and their pay is unrelated to athletic performance. I still think that’s the area that gets the whole scheme somehow blown up one day. It is a little gross, I have no issue with pretty women marketing their sex appeal but it raises some real questions when they are using state run institutions as the platform. 

 

Am I th Only Fan that fails to see a problem here?

Edited by thunderlounge
fuck chip brown
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Ive had this thought for many years ….

college football is the only sport that should be structured under big conferences. all other sports should be 8 team regional conferences. you give all those sports a ‘bigger’ tournament, more incentive. maybe more scholarships from the money saved 

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we'll see optimized player valuation for better NIL price discovery.  a player's "value" will fluctuate on every play.

each player's digital "agent" will negotiate NIL deals in real-time with official university affiliates and systems.

and we'll see our first college game coached by artificial systems or by fan consensus.  imagine 3rd and 2 on the opponents 21 yard line.  down by 5. 1:20 in the 4th.  the next play is called by fans and our NIL rich players just run the damn ball.

  

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36 minutes ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

we'll see optimized player valuation for better NIL price discovery.  a player's "value" will fluctuate on every play.

each player's digital "agent" will negotiate NIL deals in real-time with official university affiliates and systems.

and we'll see our first college game coached by artificial systems or by fan consensus.  imagine 3rd and 2 on the opponents 21 yard line.  down by 5. 1:20 in the 4th.  the next play is called by fans and our NIL rich players just run the damn ball.

  

username checks out

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On 12/15/2023 at 3:59 PM, TexArcher said:

Does anyone really think the SEC or Big 10 will allow themselves to be cleaved in half?

I think they'll push for it.  The Big 12 wasn't the only conference where the blue bloods were subsidizing the cow colleges

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On 12/15/2023 at 7:11 PM, dcar00 said:

In theory, based on the actual university mission, they'd let a minor league happen naturally with high school kids and then you'd have a team full of unlikely NFL prospects playing 4 years and getting a degree.  Yes the football would be FCS level at best but eventually you'd still be cheering for the Longhorns to win the College Football National Championship.

I'd prefer that but I'm in the distinct minority.  Also, no one would watch minor league football not affiliated with universities.

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5 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think they'll push for it.  The Big 12 wasn't the only conference where the blue bloods were subsidizing the cow colleges

 

I'm not so sure, to be honest. I say this purely from a "somebody has to eat the losses" perspective. I don't think a level where 8-4 or 9-3 is considered the new 10-2 or 11-1, with the whole "more parity" argument, is going to be a look that draws the most attention. Less attention translating to less money would be a big problem to their current path.

That being said, depending on how many teams in whatever new division/league holds there could be potential upgrades in some places. Not that their purpose wouldn't be the same either way, but there could be some lipstick for that pig somewhere.

If that were the route to be taken, then I would guess that it wouldn't be a "merger", but instead "invitations" to the new entity. The leftovers may or may not end up in a PAC-like situation, or the affected conferences could dissolve.

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Space football! Who is ready for this?

I think some of what Chip Kelly said in the above post has some validity to it and a lot things are going to need to be addressed soon. The fact that really not much has been addressed is disconcerting. It is. I know we aren’t hurting because we’re Texas but I see many colleges with legit programs struggling to figure how to compete. Washington State and Oregon State are in deep shit. That’s nothing I like to see. We don’t have to worry and we likely will never have to worry but at some point we need an actual governing body that doesn’t suck like NCAA. It’s pretty pathetic. Hoping that ship gets righted at some point and in the meantime we just need to play the best football we can play. 

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