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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Yes that one.  We don’t need to message board so hard we pretend take Yale grad head of cia ambassador to UN pilot President is dumb. 

All of that is still possible.  W graduated Yale, too.  

GHWB was at the mercy of a bunch of campaign stooges, like all of em, so mistakes were made.

Nonetheless, he's behind Clinton I think as one of the smartest of the last 50 years or so.  

Edited by TwiceHorn
Posted
39 minutes ago, immamac said:

What the fuck is Kamabla supposed to be? 

 

36 minutes ago, Radical Larry said:

He has no idea what it’s supposed to be. It was probably a typo initially, and he just rolled with it. 

 

37 minutes ago, otisdog said:

Oh, come on.....

Kama(black)

 

IMG_7014.jpeg.d2cac705b3309ef42c2a5e8bac402001.jpeg

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Posted
47 minutes ago, immamac said:

What the fuck is Kamabla supposed to be? 

 

Weirdly relevant sonsidering the Paris olympics?

 

Kamabla sounds French, no?

 

I'll answer for you,

French Yes GIF by Groundhog Day

 

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Posted
6 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Why is that? 

Adin Ross's and xQc's audiences are mostly immature males, under 18 years old, who can't vote and the ones over 18 are very unlikely to vote.  Kick is a cesspool and does not police it's streamers hardly at all. Everyone kicked off twitch for being an asshole/racist/bigot goes there, which mean there are lots of dumb things that they do and say that will be tied back to Trump (more Ross than xQc who was paid up to $100 million in a deal to stream there for 2 years) for having a sit down with him. Kick (`1 million users) is like the X of the streaming world compared Twitch (`140 million users) being the pre-Elon Twitter. 

4 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Fucking dotard posting this shit?

 

I laugh every time I see this picture. Kim Jung Un is thinking what a fucking dumbass, guy next to him is trying not to just bust out laughing, the 3rd guy is just like holy shit! The poor general is like please don't salute me you are going to get me killed. 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Will @Brisketexan’s wife be giving the opening prayer? Can’t be a Black preacher or they will be on that call for hours!

 

Pavlovitz is awesome. I’m planning to jump on this call and check it out.

Posted
16 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Pretty funny global market circuit breakers triggering which is a direct result of the runaway lunacy of the shitbag democrats and y'all are still over here in the corner stroking your flaccid micropeens about the dumbest presidential candidate to ever run.

Enjoy the CBDC, UBI, and social credit prison your stupidity help construct as they strip all your financial assets away.

image.png.66e20bf27530efeb6e3f4bf472c47482.png

Hopefully next time you get reincarnated you won't be so gullible.

Man, I have historically been pretty unenthused and continue to hold mixed feelings about the prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency.

However, one thing I do know without a shadow of a doubt is that you consistently excel when given the opportunity to prove you are one of, if not the dumbest poster in the history of this board. From football to the CR and everything in between, you have set a standard that the rest of us are in awe of.

Given that track record, and this latest addition that may as well have been copy-pasted straight from Texags, maybe I should be more excited.

 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

When did I miss this Kamabla thing.  Is it supposed to be an insult of some kind?

No idea, but is the "-bla" another attempt at claiming she's not really black?  It's stupid/childish enough for Trump to embrace.

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Posted
14 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

What would a Collin, Montgomery, and maybe even Denton county flip mean in terms of the state?

Not just a blue Texas at the presidential level, but a monstrous blue wave that would transform Texas politics overnight. Allred would win. The Texas House would flip. I don't know what Texas Senate seats are up this year but Democrats would make major gains and potentially flip it if the right seats are up. Three Dems on the SCOTX. Local level government and judicial sweeps across the metro counties that hold 70% of the state population.

I assume you don't realize how red Montgomery County is. Suffice to say, that isn't going to happen. Deepest red/largest margin Republican county in the country. GOP losing there would be like aggy losing an online poll (there is, uh, a lot of voter overlap there). A world where Montgomery County flips is a complete implosion of the Texas GOP.

The aggregate Collin/Denton county vote is a decent bellwether for the state though.

Posted
9 hours ago, YGIFS said:

That’s the Hannibal Lecter thing.  We went there through this like 1-2 weeks ago.  It makes eerie sense when you see through clips in chronological order.  

In his defense, he's been trapped in the VP thread the past two weeks. 

Posted
5 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Unsure what his numbers were there the last 2 years but Montana has elected Democratic senators and governor so if the bloom is off his rose it’s not a slam dunk. 

Not a chance in hell Harris gets more than 45% here. And a Democrat won't win the governor's seat here for at least another 20 years.

Tester isn't beating Sheehy in November either.  Tester knows it, too, because he's turning more and more right in his ads. 

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Posted
9 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Only 1 of the 4 Republican Presidents of my lifetime was/is of reasonably above average intelligence. That's their party at this point. The annoying part is that it took Trumpism for the college-educated population as a whole to realize it. Hence the ongoing shift. 

6 hours ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

Well of course someone who graduated from Yale can't be an idiot

George-W-Bush.jpeg

I despise W these days, because W was at the helm in 2003 and gave the final go-ahead on invading Iraq, but I was around his 98 and 2000 elections as a volunteer and sometimes worker, and I saw him a few times and he sounded every bit like a fast-talking Texan who had been educated at Yale and Harvard.

And the New York Times picked up on that, when they wrote an article in 2000 about his first political race, back in 1978 in West Texas:

https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/politics/camp/072700wh-bush-lubbock.html

Quote

LUBBOCK, Tex. -- George W. Bush was seething with frustration. Here he was, feeling as Texan as the chaw he liked to tuck under his lower lip, and he had to smile gamely while the audience snickered at him as an alien in cowboy boots.

It was 1978, and the 31-year-old Mr. Bush was trying to get a start in politics by running for Congress here in West Texas. A candidate forum was under way, and his rival was needling Mr. Bush with an oft-repeated joke in which he was the punchline, a yarn that reinforced a perception of him as a spoiled rich kid from back East.

Quote

Mr. Bush campaigned feverishly from morning to night in his white Oldsmobile Cutlass, usually running late, his volunteers sitting beside him and struggling to domesticate him. "He chewed tobacco," recalled Lisa Nowlin, one of those volunteers, "and we always had to carry a spit cup so he could spit out the tobacco before he saw the Methodist preachers."

Older people were sometimes put off by what they saw as Mr. Bush's cockiness, but the young volunteers were dazzled by his enthusiasm. "No matter how late the activities of the previous evening, he was always up early the next morning and working in a way I'd rarely seen in Lubbock," said J. Michael Weiss, whom Mr. Bush met while shaking hands at a shopping mall and turned into a volunteer county chairman.

Quote

While Mr. Bush now is sometimes mocked for an ignorance of policy details, back then people thought he had the opposite problem: a tendency to drop references in his speeches that baffled audiences, like a discussion of anti-inflationary economic policy.

"He was quick, a bit too quick, so that people didn't always get it," Mrs. Davis said. "He was so darn intelligent that a lot of what he said went over people's heads. He's learned to explain things a little better since then."

Quote

Another problem was that while Mr. Bush never really had a clear campaign strategy, Mr. Hance did: he focused his campaign on emphasizing local ties and on casting Mr. Bush as a carpet-bagger from the East. One of Mr. Hance's most effective radio spots was this one, read by an announcer:

"In 1961, when Kent Hance graduated from Dimmitt High School in the 19th congressional district, his opponent George W. Bush was attending Andover Academy in Massachusetts. In 1965, when Kent Hance graduated from Texas Tech, his opponent was at Yale University. And while Kent Hance graduated from University of Texas Law School, his opponent" -- the announcer's voice plunged -- "get this, folks, was attending Harvard. We don't need someone from the Northeast telling us what our problems are."

Quote

Mr. Hance believes he taught Mr. Bush two lessons. First, he said, he showed Mr. Bush the need to cultivate the religious right, those church-goers who he had largely ignored during the campaign and who in the end voted against him on the alcohol issue.

And second, he thinks, he helped teach Mr. Bush the need to be more folksy. As Mr. Hance put it: "He wasn't going to be out-Christianed or out-good-old-boyed again. He's going to be the good old boy next door."

Here he is debating Ann Richards in '94

 

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I despise W these days, because W was at the helm in 2003 and gave the final go-ahead on invading Iraq, but I was around his 98 and 2000 elections as a volunteer and sometimes worker, and I saw him a few times and he sounded every bit like a fast-talking Texan who had been educated at Yale and Harvard.

And the New York Times picked up on that, when they wrote an article in 2000 about his first political race, back in 1978 in West Texas:

https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/library/politics/camp/072700wh-bush-lubbock.html

Here he is debating Ann Richards in '94

 

 

W is a fucking moron hth.

Posted
6 hours ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

So the only campaign for dotard this week is Montana? He's gotta be there to pick up some laundered money to haul back on his 757, right? It's impossible for him to lose Montana.

I don't know what the fuck he's doing, but given that the RNC cut way back on their field offices earlier this year/last year, and given that most of his rallies seem to be more about collecting contributions than trying to energize votes to get out and vote, it's like his people don't give a shit.

And it doesn't help that his rallies are basically the airing of grievances, because if you constantly tell people that everything is rigged against you, that the election was stolen from you in 2020 and that if you lose again, it's because the Deep State rigged the election against you, well people might just start to believe that the election is rigged against you, and if they believe that, why should they bother showing up to vote?

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Posted
2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Man, I have historically been pretty unenthused and continue to hold mixed feelings about the prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency.

For all of the bullshit we see online and from places like Fox News, just remember - a lot of Musk's incels on twitter don't vote, and for all of Fox News bullshit, out of 155 million or so voters in the US, there's less than 4 million people who regularly tune into Fox News in the evening (and even then some of those might be double-counted).

3-4 million Fox News viewers are still a lot of people, but they really are a small portion of the overall population, and social media amplifies a lot of these groups who would not have been this loud in the past.  There are lots of Republicans who have no idea whether Vance fucked a couch or not, or even that it was trending, or that saw Trump at the NABJ conference - there's a shitload of people on both sides who just don't pay attention to politics at all, outside of catching the occasional 30-second soundbite while at somebody else's house or waiting on a car to be serviced or whatever and watching a TV in the the waiting room.

That's not to say they won't show up and vote and pull that lever for (R), but a whole lot of Americans just don't bother tuning in until right before the elections.  Hell, if you can hit up some of those folks with the weird shit, like Vance always wearing eyeliner or the couch stuff or Trump saying some batshit stuff about batteries in boats, you might cause them to tune out of politics.

 

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Posted
Not just a blue Texas at the presidential level, but a monstrous blue wave that would transform Texas politics overnight. Allred would win. The Texas House would flip. I don't know what Texas Senate seats are up this year but Democrats would make major gains and potentially flip it if the right seats are up. Three Dems on the SCOTX. Local level government and judicial sweeps across the metro counties that hold 70% of the state population.
I assume you don't realize how red Montgomery County is. Suffice to say, that isn't going to happen. Deepest red/largest margin Republican county in the country. GOP losing there would be like aggy losing an online poll (there is, uh, a lot of voter overlap there). A world where Montgomery County flips is a complete implosion of the Texas GOP.
The aggregate Collin/Denton county vote is a decent bellwether for the state though.

This newsletter has good info about demographic and voting trends in Collin/Denton and other big Tx counties.

“Like much of Texas, Collin County is only getting bluer with time. Collin County only needs to secure three higher points this year than they did in 2020 to flip. Considering every presidential election (except for 2012), they’ve gained more than three points (over eight in 2020), it’s easy to see their path to victory.

Moreover, in 2020, it had one of the highest voter turnout rates in Texas, at 75.67%.”

https://www.lonestarleft.com/p/how-important-is-collin-county-in
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Posted

Oh look, Japan's stock market having it's best day since 2008.  Shocker, the internet overreacted? 

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Posted

Now I’ve watched about 80 hours of Olympics across 4 networks. I have still yet to see a Trump ad. Harris has ads at least every hour.

It’s almost like Trump doesn’t have any money. Or maybe more likely, he just pocketed the cash thinking he had the election in the bag….

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Fastbreak said:

Now I’ve watched about 80 hours of Olympics across 4 networks. I have still yet to see a Trump ad. Harris has ads at least every hour.

It’s almost like Trump doesn’t have any money. Or maybe more likely, he just pocketed the cash thinking he had the election in the bag….

The polls are pretty pretty bad for trump before any of the additional bumps that are coming from VP pick and from DNC. 

They are going to need to figure out something in the next 10 days or pray for a fucking self sabotage disaster from the Democratic ticket. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Fastbreak said:

Now I’ve watched about 80 hours of Olympics across 4 networks. I have still yet to see a Trump ad. Harris has ads at least every hour.

It’s almost like Trump doesn’t have any money. Or maybe more likely, he just pocketed the cash thinking he had the election in the bag….

I would say he's used most of the RNC funds to pay his mounting legal fees, but it's out of character for Trump to pay his lawyers.

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Posted
35 minutes ago, bolverk said:

A quick comparison of these maps gives us a rough idea of how far we must go to flip Texas.

These seven counties represent a tiny bit over half of Texas's population: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, Travis, Collin, and Denton. Texas would flip if turn-out were equal across every county and every voter in each county voted according to its color.

image.thumb.jpeg.a6a6ced4d5c3e3ee4777ab506e664654.jpeg

 

Of course, it doesn't work that way because the vote in Texas's rural counties is so lopsided that it's common to see 80% Republican vs. 20% Democratic, whereas the largest counties are in the 55-75% range for Democrats (plus Collin and Denton haven't flipped yet).

Below is the 2020 presidential race. The blue counties are where Biden got over 50%. The lavender ones are where Biden got the plurality (more than Trump but a smidgeon less than 50%).

image.thumb.jpeg.76a6ceecf67f6831eccd6e96845cc1dc.jpeg

 

It goes without saying, but the Democrats need to solidify their gains in Tarrant and Williamson counties and continue to chip away votes in Collin and Denton counties. My gut tells me Tarrant will continue to be tight because the northeastern part of that county is like ground zero for a lot of the worst of MAGA. On the other hand, I do want to believe that Collin is gettable with the population surge it's experienced in the last few years from a very racially and ethnically diverse population: lots of new East and South Asians. I don't know about Denton. It's getting closer, plus it has a large college student population, but I feel that it probably needs another election cycle or two.

Then, there's the problem of eroding support among Hispanics in South Texas, where they've been trending more Republican. I think part of that in 2020 can be attributed to an increase in oil and gas jobs, especially in the upper parts of the Valley, and the fear-mongering Republicans do to tell that industry's workers the Democrats are coming for their jobs. There are also the likely contributing factors of folks wanting to pull the ladder up behind them as it relates to border issues, along with some machismo support for Trump and traditional Catholic opposition to abortion.

Democrats have to figure out a message that can blunt those concerns/issues in South Texas. Maybe after four years of Biden, the O&G guys aren't so fearful of their jobs being taken away. Maybe Trump's bullshit he-man act has worn off. Maybe people are questioning the more draconian effects of losing their right to choose. Maybe I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, and they're getting more dug in on those issues. I just don't know.

I'll end with one final map. This one shows where TWO-THIRDS of Texas's population lives. Win these, and Texas will be blue for the foreseeable future. As others have said, Montgomery is a fool's errand. Brazoria likely is, too, but Bell County is closer than most realize.

image.thumb.jpeg.5168048e5555fe759d04cc61502b6a4e.jpeg

 

The path is clear but not easy:

  • Hold South Texas and the Valley.
  • Solidify gains in the booming burbs, especially in North Texas.
  • Somehow, offset the votes you'll never get in Montgomery.

Jefferson (Beaumont/Pt. Arthur) and Nueces (Corpus Christi) were close: 49% for Biden in the former and 48% in the latter. A strong labor message to those county's throngs of unionized industrial workers might do the trick, which could also happen to help make gains in Brazoria and Galveston.

If you squint, you can see it.

I live on the Mckinney/Melissa line in north Collin County and my observation is the northern suburbs are are being populated by MAGA transplants. On the positive side, the population is also becoming more diverse so I hope that is a good counter to all the conservative Californians moving in.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Woland said:

I live on the Mckinney/Melissa line in north Collin County and my observation is the northern suburbs are are being populated by MAGA transplants. On the positive side, the population is also becoming more diverse so I hope that is a good counter to all the conservative Californians moving in.

I don't live in either the Houston area or DFW, but I'm hoping to see Collin become like Fort Bend in that the diversity effect tips the scales. I understand conservatives are moving into the northern parts of Collin, but what's going on in Plano and Allen? 

Posted
12 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

That's called wishcasting

As president, I promise be focused most of the time.

 

I think Kamabala started as an attempt to mix her name with Obama's. He fucked it up, of course, which may be good for him. I don't think conflating any candidate with Obama would be good for the GOPs.

The other possibility is something to do with NAMBLA. He likely belongs to the heterosexual branch of that noted organization.

Posted
6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I don't live in either the Houston area or DFW, but I'm hoping to see Collin become like Fort Bend in that the diversity effect tips the scales. I understand conservatives are moving into the northern parts of Collin, but what's going on in Plano and Allen? 

I live in southern Collin Co., right on the Rockwall Co. line.  There is more diversity moving into this area (and new neighborhoods are exploding into existance around here)  but a lot of them are Asian and Indian.  I'm not sure that demographic is much more Dem leaning than the conservatives of northern Collin Co.  



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