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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

9/4 Bloomberg/MC

PA Harris +5

WI Harris +8

MI Harris +2

AZ Harris +2

NV Harris +2

GA Harris +2

NC TIE

CNN released it polls today, which is virtually the opposite in several areas.  

Wisconsin Harris +6

Michigan Harris +5

Georgia Harris +1

Nevada Harris +1

Pennsylvania Dead Heat

Arizona Trump +5

I find their Pennsylvania and Arizona numbers to be highly suspect.  

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

CNN released it polls today, which is virtually the opposite in several areas.  

Wisconsin Harris +6

Michigan Harris +5

Georgia Harris +1

Nevada Harris +1

Pennsylvania Dead Heat

Arizona Trump +5

I find their Pennsylvania and Arizona numbers to be highly suspect.  

I posted them earlier.  You know what you do?  You throw them in the pile, average them, and move on. 

Actually if you do that -

WI Harris +7 (probably too high)
Michigan Harris +3.5 (sounds abought right)
Georgia Harris +1.5 (sounds about right)
Nevada Harris +1.5 (sounds about right)
PA Harris +2.5 (sounds about right)
Arizona Trump +1.5 (probably too high)
 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I posted them earlier.  You know what you do?  You throw them in the pile, average them, and move on. 

Actually if you do that -

WI Harris +7 (probably too high)
Michigan Harris +3.5 (sounds abought right)
Georgia Harris +1.5 (sounds about right)
Nevada Harris +1.5 (sounds about right)
PA Harris +2.5 (sounds about right)
Arizona Trump +1.5 (probably too high)
 

It's increasingly clear to me that CNN deliberately sandbags for the purposes of the fear driven ratings, the Arizona and Pennsylvania numbers being indicative of that.  It's irritating.  

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Posted
13 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Walz is becoming more relatable by the minute.

Eight members of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's family in Nebraska posing for an image showing their support for Republican rival Donald Trump

Of course the photo comes from Charlie Fucking Herbster. The guy runs an ag-chemical MLM and got smoked running for Governor in Nebraska as well as being notably too creepy even by the local party standards. (He's also from a county know for a murder cult, as well as the murders that inspired the Hilary Swank vehicle Boys Don't Cry) 

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Posted
1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

It's increasingly clear to me that CNN deliberately sandbags for the purposes of the fear driven ratings, the Arizona and Pennsylvania numbers being indicative of that.  It's irritating.  

CNN doesn’t conduct their own polls. SSRS does. I will say their polls tend to be less favorable for Dems. Fox’s tend to be better, but again, Fox contracts out to  Beacon (D) and Shaw (R), who jointly does the polls 

Posted
3 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Yep. All families have their regarded cousins.

Hell, I'm pretty sure my MAGA brother and his family would vote for Trump over me.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Walz is becoming more relatable by the minute.

Eight members of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's family in Nebraska posing for an image showing their support for Republican rival Donald Trump

Siri, show me people who have never ventured farther away from their hometown than Las Vegas.

Edited by aggie08
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Posted
1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Siri, show me people who have never ventured farther away from their hometown than Las Vegas.

Hey, don't disparage my industry like that!

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Posted

From Fortune:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Donald Trump.

“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse” from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists including Alec Phillips wrote in a note Tuesday.

Gross domestic product would see a peak hit of 0.5 percentage point in the second half of next year in that scenario, with the effects abating in 2026, the Goldman team estimated. They assumed a 20 percentage-point hike in China tariffs under Trump, along with higher duties on auto imports from Mexico and the European Union, and a reduction in immigration that would slow growth in the labor force.

Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”

Should Harris win the White House in a divided-government scenario, where Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress, “the effects of policy changes would be small and neutral on net,” Phillips and his colleagues wrote.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

From Fortune:

 

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Donald Trump.

“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse” from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists including Alec Phillips wrote in a note Tuesday.

Gross domestic product would see a peak hit of 0.5 percentage point in the second half of next year in that scenario, with the effects abating in 2026, the Goldman team estimated. They assumed a 20 percentage-point hike in China tariffs under Trump, along with higher duties on auto imports from Mexico and the European Union, and a reduction in immigration that would slow growth in the labor force.

Should Vice President Kamala Harris win and Democrats secure control of both chambers of Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” the Goldman economists wrote. That would result in “a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”

Should Harris win the White House in a divided-government scenario, where Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress, “the effects of policy changes would be small and neutral on net,” Phillips and his colleagues wrote.

GS libtards

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

9/4 Bloomberg/MC

PA Harris +5

WI Harris +8

MI Harris +2

AZ Harris +2

NV Harris +2

GA Harris +2

NC TIE

So PA and AZ are 5-7 points in Harris's favor with this poll compared to whatever poll it was posted yesterday?  Don't nobody know shit.  Can't take anything for granted, and let's go out there and run up the score.

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Posted
Hell, I'm pretty sure my MAGA brother and his family would vote for Trump over me.

I have a friend from small town Nebraska. She ran for the Senate, but didn’t get past the primary. Her dad didn’t vote for her, even against other Dems, because it would have meant registering as a Democrat. He just didn’t want that on his record.
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Posted
1 hour ago, Chopper said:

This is dumb young men voting against their own self-interest because a)frail masculinity and b)crypto.

Some men, old or young, are susceptible to believing the loudest, most confidence voice in the room. If you tell them that football team X will win by 21 tonight, or that Biden is working to give your job to a illegal alien, they are prone to accept that as truth. And act on it.

Many men also work in male dominated fields. At the end of daily safety meeting, why wouldn't you believe your boss who says that the Dems will destroy your industry. And he heard it from his boss the day before. I imagine these are daily talks in the O&G fields. Those with critical thinking skills may recognize that the facts don't match the rhetoric but also why wouldn't you vote for Trump and his drill, baby, drill mantra.

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Tuco said:


I have a friend from small town Nebraska. She ran for the Senate, but didn’t get past the primary. Her dad didn’t vote for her, even against other Dems, because it would have meant registering as a Democrat. He just didn’t want that on his record.

As far as my parents/bro, I'm certainly the only one voting Harris.

I spend so much time fact-checking the garbage my dad comes across... 

Edited by texasdago
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Posted (edited)

I know a guy, former DA (D) that was out of office for many years , but still popular and the seat was open. He tried to register his campaign with the Republican Party because he knew there was a less than zero chance as a Democrat and they turned him away. Wound up running Independent and came in 2nd.

Edited by RPM
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Posted
12 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

sometimes the accent reclamation thing is organic. , 

My ex (what a piece of ass BTW) was from Grand Forks, ND.  She had lived in Vegas and OC for 20 years.   She had a normal voice like any other woman in Newport Beach.  It's her mom's birthday, so she calls a Grand Forks florist to order flowers.  5 minutes into the conversation with the Grand Forks lady, she's all "dontcha' know" just like one of the women on "Fargo". 

Yeah, my wife has lived in CO for 25 years but when she visits Texas it doesn't take long for the accent to come back out.

4 hours ago, Pancho said:

The “Harris plans to end the free speech” from twitter yesterday that was propped up by Elmo makes me so fucking ragey. At least this morning, you’re seeing outlets and media members tweeting that it isn’t true. 

 

Elmo is fucking obsessed with free speech

He's obsessed with censoring speech he doesn't like.  

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Posted
39 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Siri, show me people who have never ventured farther away from their hometown than Las Vegas.

Branson “Baptist Vegas” would like a word with you….

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Posted
3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

The fact that Trump won in 2016 was shocking but understandable.  A lot of shit came together.  But the fact that 2020 was close, and that he is the GOP nominee in 2024, and that the race is still projected to be extremely close (PA +1 for Trump?!?!  Wtff?!?!)…it’s such a brutal indictment of our electoral college system.  Everyone knows what kind of shitbag he is.  How little character he has.  How quick he is to denigrate the vulnerable and blame others for his problems.  Everyone knows how he’ll govern.  How can this race be close?????

FIFY. Trump will lose the popular vote by over 5 million. The problem is 75,000 swing voters in rural corners of 3 states deciding the election. 

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Posted
19 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

What is 1LT McCain doing with sergeant's stripes.  And why isn't he in the US Navy?  McCain is USN royalty.

ETA:  Well, he's been in the Army for 17 years, so mustang, I guess, albeit a very slow one.  What a fuckup given the family pedigree.

I've come to notice this is how it tends to go. Was at Annapolis last month and Col was talking about his sons in Army and USAF. Their own path and whatnot.

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Some men, old or young, are susceptible to believing the loudest, most confidence voice in the room. If you tell them that football team X will win by 21 tonight, or that Biden is working to give your job to a illegal alien, they are prone to accept that as truth. And act on it.

Many men also work in male dominated fields. At the end of daily safety meeting, why wouldn't you believe your boss who says that the Dems will destroy your industry. And he heard it from his boss the day before. I imagine these are daily talks in the O&G fields. Those with critical thinking skills may recognize that the facts don't match the rhetoric but also why wouldn't you vote for Trump and his drill, baby, drill mantra.

Think about it in terms of shit states like W Va. Mining or manufacturing used to be the main industries, and men were the dominant employees. This extends to parts of PA and OH now, as well. Now the men are unemployed or underemployed, and many of them are reliant upon women who work. The women work in healthcare or school jobs. "Not real" jobs per their men. They're resentful and because of that prefer to vote for the supposed mas macho candidate. I'm stealing part of an argument Paul Krugman made earlier this week. edit - then combine that with the percentage of young men who've "invested" in crypto. There's apparently a lot more of those than we tend to think, and they're of course voting for the grifter candidate. 

Edited by Chopper
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Slacks said:

I've come to notice this is how it tends to go. Was at Annapolis last month and Col was talking about his sons in Army and USAF. Their own path and whatnot.

Well, yeah....go into the same service as your father, there's some baggage.....

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Posted
46 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Yet again, a dude who absolutely thinks that not only does he not need to get more votes, but that he doesn't even need to win the electoral college. 

I wonder, if someone got him on tape saying "My plan is to steal the election, and if that doesn't work, hopefully my justices on the Supreme Court will just give it to me".... would he lose a significant number of votes? 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Yet again, a dude who absolutely thinks that not only does he not need to get more votes, but that he doesn't even need to win the electoral college. 

I wonder, if someone got him on tape saying "My plan is to steal the election, and if that doesn't work, hopefully my justices on the Supreme Court will just give it to me".... would he lose a significant number of votes? 

Not. A. Single. One.

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Posted
3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The numbers for black and hispanic voters going to Trump is starting to get concerning.  But the topline numbers suggest similar stuff as 2020.  Does that mean there is a white shift that offsets it?

black people are 12% of the population and are mostly concentrated in red states in the south where the EC kicks in and reduces that population effect to very little... we're more thermometer than thermostat. It is good to see white people get excited about a black woman President. Do your thing.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Some men, old or young, are susceptible to believing the loudest, most confidence voice in the room. If you tell them that football team X will win by 21 tonight, or that Biden is working to give your job to a illegal alien, they are prone to accept that as truth. And act on it.

 

happy season 4 GIF

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Posted
1 hour ago, TeeDubya said:

Branson “Baptist Vegas” would like a word with you….

 

52 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

FIFY

Nah, I'll give that group some benefit of the doubt. Meemaw and peepaw, in their 50's, spent 3 years planning the trip of a lifetime to Nevada. They stayed off the strip, went to one show, gave the penny slots and $1 blackjack table a good what-fer, and they still talk about it 30 years later. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Some men, old or young, are susceptible to believing the loudest, most confidence voice in the room. If you tell them that football team X will win by 21 tonight, or that Biden is working to give your job to a illegal alien, they are prone to accept that as truth. And act on it.

Many men also work in male dominated fields. At the end of daily safety meeting, why wouldn't you believe your boss who says that the Dems will destroy your industry. And he heard it from his boss the day before. I imagine these are daily talks in the O&G fields. Those with critical thinking skills may recognize that the facts don't match the rhetoric but also why wouldn't you vote for Trump and his drill, baby, drill mantra.

 

Well, and straight men are also very emotional but they try to suppress it because of social pressures. We call this the “Cowboy Syndrome” in academics. When I taught, I reworded it to call it the “Machismo Syndrome” as that resonated with students more. Then we’d get into the discussion of how this impacts males as they grow older and get into relationships and why some of their relationships don’t last or why they can’t get into one (or another one) because of it. Straight males are also the least likely of all to go to therapy for their issues. 

But that is getting waaaayyyy off topic. Back to the topic at hand.

 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Well, and straight men are also very emotional but they try to suppress it because of social pressures. We call this the “Cowboy Syndrome” in academics. When I taught, I reworded it to call it the “Machismo Syndrome” as that resonated with students more. Then we’d get into the discussion of how this impacts males as they grow older and get into relationships and why some of their relationships don’t last or why they can’t get into one (or another one) because of it. Straight males are also the least likely of all to go to therapy for their issues. 

But that is getting waaaayyyy off topic. Back to the topic at hand.

 

Hulk Hogan is like their Susan Lucci

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, TeeDubya said:

And Keith should cruise to an easy victory, since most of the MAGA voters will actually weigh voting for a white woman  as less of a mortal sin than voting for a black man…

to the MAGA, racism is a bigger influence than misogyny. 

I think most true magas will either throw the municipal ballot away because they don't see the party line and have no idea who the people are, or because Van Norman already told them that both are dirty libruls. I think moderate republicans and low information voters who remember her as a newscaster and might have come across her name during her the last 16 years she served as a county commissioner will put her over the top. I know Karen personally and like her, I think she'd do a great job administering municipal government they way it should be administered, but I like Monroe too although I don't know him personally, and the significance of electing Tulsa's first Black mayor is important.

After the Tulsa World endorsed Monroe and I started seeing my contemporaries all in for him, I took a calculated risk and voted for Karen in the primary thinking that she needed it more than Monroe to get Van Norman out of the way. Looks like I was right but by the narrowest of margins. I don't know who I'll vote for in November yet. Some of Monroe's more vocal supporters are rubbing me the wrong way a little trying to portray Karen as maga (she's very moderate but has taken decidedly democratic stances when it becomes relevant, including being vocally opposed to the covid trump rally) but I know better than to hold stuff like that against him personally. I do think she'll win by a decent margin from the middle and yeah, maybe some maga racists who hate her, but hate his skin tone more. Either way, we're going to get a good mayor who will treat the job in the nonpartisan way it was intended.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
3 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Siri, show me people who have never ventured farther away from their hometown than Las Vegas.

 

3 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Walz is becoming more relatable by the minute.

Eight members of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's family in Nebraska posing for an image showing their support for Republican rival Donald Trump

Walz and his brother aren't on speaking terms.  I've seen this story a thousand times.  One sibling does better than another and the other is either butt hurt about it or thinks they're owed something.  Walz moved to MN and seems to have done well.  The rest are back in bumblefuck Nebraska and wonder why they can't a job without having to leave their little town.  Tim is now "too good for them" or something or they wanted to borrow money and he said no or he did help out and they squandered it or.....

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Posted
3 hours ago, DixonHur said:

Walz is becoming more relatable by the minute.

Eight members of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's family in Nebraska posing for an image showing their support for Republican rival Donald Trump

The Magats are too stupid to figure out the possessive before printing up T-shirts and posting for millions of people to see.  

Posted
21 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

The Magats are too stupid to figure out the possessive before printing up T-shirts and posting for millions of people to see.  

Or that losing family to the maga cult makes him very relatable to many people in this country. I'm 100% certain that  either the brother disowned him for being a librul, or refused to stop making it an issue every time they spoke causing the strain in the relationship (this is where I am currently with my mother). That old lady definitely harassed Black folk for sitting at a lunch counter back in her day, maybe even just last week.

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Posted
1 minute ago, 'stache said:

Or that losing family to the maga cult makes him very relatable to many people in this country. I'm 100% certain that  either the brother disowned him for being a librul, or refused to stop making it an issue every time they spoke causing the strain in the relationship (this is where I am currently with my mother). That old lady definitely harassed Black folk for sitting at a lunch counter back in her day, maybe even just last week.

Adam Kinzinger has the exact same story.  Said some relatives stopped speaking to him because he opposed Trump's insurrection.  

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Posted
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

9/4 Bloomberg/MC

PA Harris +5

WI Harris +8

MI Harris +2

AZ Harris +2

NV Harris +2

GA Harris +2

NC TIE

WTF has happened in Wisconsin?  I have thought over the last eight years that it was the least secure of the Blue Wall states.  But polling over the past six weeks has consistently had it as the most secure (occasionally showing it outside the MOE, as is the case here).  What's up with that?

Pennsylvania is always close, but it almost always comes home for the Dems.  I suspect it'll be the same here--five points feels high.  If Harris wins it by more than three points, I'd be surprised.

Pennsylvania is not more Dem than Michigan.  It's just not.  And I don't want to hear any bullshit about Dearborn; Harris is not going to run three points in Pennsylvania ahead of where she is in Michigan.

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

Walz and his brother aren't on speaking terms.  I've seen this story a thousand times.  One sibling does better than another and the other is either butt hurt about it or thinks they're owed something.  Walz moved to MN and seems to have done well.  The rest are back in bumblefuck Nebraska and wonder why they can't a job without having to leave their little town.  Tim is now "too good for them" or something or they wanted to borrow money and he said no or he did help out and they squandered it or.....

It's worse.  His brother moved to Florida.

And that big truth reveal by Walz's brother that the Trumpfucks have been teasing?  As a kid, Tim Walz got car sick and no one wanted to sit next to him because he puked all over everything.

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