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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Cygnal (R) has Trump only up 51-45 in Iowa. Shockingly weak and could have down ballot effects in 2 congressional districts. 

It’s October, so the late month Selzer poll should tell the story, but this is only 2 off her September margin for Trump. Iowa shifting a few points left could mean the same for the Blue Wall 

I don't want to start drinking coolaid, but it again tells me that maybe pollsters are herding in swing states.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I don't want to start drinking coolaid, but it again tells me that maybe pollsters are herding in swing states.

I want to see what Selzer says.

And Iowa is not a swing state.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I want to see what Selzer says.

And Iowa is not a swing state.  

I think that’s his point. If Iowa is going a little towards Harris, what are the odds that the swing states aren’t doing the same?

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Posted
2 hours ago, 'stache said:

We seriously need some real campaign finance reform in this country. When Walz was announced I bought a yard sign and gave a little on top and ever since I get a dozen texts and emails every single day just begging for me to give a little bit more. I can definitely see people who don’t follow politics much but found a reason this cycle to give $25 being completely turned off and reverting to a “both sides” mentality because it really does feel just about money. No wonder voter participation in this country is so low.

I get five or six messages a day and multiple emails. It has seriously made me regret giving to any campaign. They need to dial that shit down.

Posted
1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I think that’s his point. If Iowa is going a little towards Harris, what are the odds that the swing states aren’t doing the same?

Fair enough.  I read it wrong. 

There's evidence via the WA primary that Dems were clawing back a point or two in the rurals, which would show up in states like Iowa - no big urban populations. 

Another evidence in the WA primary that wasn't talked about - Dems made significant gains in the primarily Hispanic precincts from 2020/2022.  Of course, PNW Hispanics aren't like NV/AZ Hispanics who aren't like TX/FL/GA Hispanics who aren't like NY/NJ/PA Hispanics.

But all of the little data bits don't point to a close election.  I do truly think Harris is going to win 6 out of 7 of the swing states (and maybe sweep). 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

I'd like for mega-donor and corporate sponsorship of politicians to be banned.  Then I'd be fine with being bludgeoned by fundraising texts by politicians every hour.

Somehow around 2020 my number ended up being associated with my grandfather on the GQP lists, so I get them from bOtH sIDeS. It's very on brand that almost every Dem text I get is multiple paragraphs and goes into the minutia of the FEC filing deadline, blah blah blah; while the Trump ones are almost always one to two sensationalized sentences like "FROM TRUMP: THEY'RE TRYING TO KILL ME!!!" followed by a link.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I do truly think Harris is going to win 6 out of 7 of the swing states (and maybe sweep). 

I think it's going to mostly look just like 2020, with Georgia and NC being up in the air. The blue wall states and Nevada put her at 276, and I'm pretty sure she's gonna win all of those. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, ultimaton said:

Somehow around 2020 my number ended up being associated with my grandfather on the GQP lists, so I get them from bOtH sIDeS. It's very on brand that almost every Dem text I get is multiple paragraphs and goes into the minutia of the FEC filing deadline, blah blah blah; while the Trump ones are almost always one to two sensationalized sentences like "FROM TRUMP: THEY'RE TRYING TO KILL ME!!!" followed by a link.

That's pretty funny, damn near a parody of itself

Posted
2 hours ago, 'stache said:

We seriously need some real campaign finance reform in this country. When Walz was announced I bought a yard sign and gave a little on top and ever since I get a dozen texts and emails every single day just begging for me to give a little bit more. I can definitely see people who don’t follow politics much but found a reason this cycle to give $25 being completely turned off and reverting to a “both sides” mentality because it really does feel just about money. No wonder voter participation in this country is so low.

Plus I still haven't received my fuckin' camo hat going on a month and a half now. 

200w.gif?cid=6c09b952uzri0thswm1hycewx8v

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Plus I still haven't received my fuckin' camo hat going on a month and a half now. 

200w.gif?cid=6c09b952uzri0thswm1hycewx8v

 

6 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

Same. 

maybe they're waiting for deer season?

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Posted
44 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:


You’re not exactly the Democrats target audience - and like me (46, white, and live in the neighborhood where gov wheels went door knocking) - will not get much, if any effort at all.

Don’t disagree with that. I was more just pointing out that the Trump campaign is definitely putting money into PA. One of the few places where his campaign is on par with Kamala’s spending. 

they know that they absolutely have to crush the independent suburban white male vote or they have no chance to win PA. And I’m perfectly fine with them spending as much money as they want trying to get my vote. 

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Posted

Along the lines of interesting advertising, we've been getting what I believe are Vietnamese ads for Kamala on certain platforms.  I'd recently read that the Democratic campaign has placed a real emphasis on the Asian American vote here in specifically Atlanta.  We only see these on certain platforms, like Hulu and Pluto, but it's clear there is an effort.  I know a lot of people use different platforms to get news and shows from back home, so I guess that's part of this.  Considering that every election in Georgia is so close, I really like this strategy.  We do have a large Asian first and second generation community here, so there is a real opportunity for meaningful pickups with this.  

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Posted
3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

You have to text back Stop.  Can't just delete and report as spam.

 

I assume that when you tell these bots to STOP, it only confirms that it's an active number and they can sell the number for even more to the next campaign.

Posted

I haven’t been paying super close attention to who is paying for it. The tv ad I see the most is paid for by Donald J Trump for president 2024, inc.

and it s a doozy. Kamala is guaranteeing tax payer funded transgender surgeries for inmates and illegals. I see it constantly while watching football.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, heso said:

I haven’t been paying super close attention to who is paying for it. The tv ad I see the most is paid for by Donald J Trump for president 2024, inc.

and it s a doozy. Kamala is guaranteeing tax payer funded transgender surgeries for inmates and illegals. I see it constantly while watching football.

That's the algorithm tracking what you view online

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I don't want to start drinking coolaid, but it again tells me that maybe pollsters are herding in swing states.

They are but we don't have much bellwether district or county-level polling to really tell us anything. 

 

Posted

I keep beating that drum too. Several decades ago everyone watched the same network news. So we more or less believed the same things. Now it's all over the map. Yes, there are a lot of stupid people. But people believe what they see and hear. So when they get locked into a social echo chamber and watch propagandized news, this is what we get. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, The Dog said:

They are but we don't have much bellwether district or county-level polling to really tell us anything. 

 

Well the two NE-02 polls showing her just killing him there. Suburban shift 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:


We need a new version of the fairness act, that somehow is updated to include the innerwebz. I leave it to the big brains to sort out how.

this plus repeal citizen's united, increase scotus seats, and abolish the electoral college and *voilà* republic saved

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Posted
2 hours ago, heso said:

From my perspective in PA as a 40 year old, middle class, suburban, white male, registered independent, I get FAR more messaging from Trump than from Harris. TV ads are probably 2-1. YouTube ads are probably 10-1. I get a physical mailer every single day. Those are probably 80% anti Harris, 20% anti Casey. I haven’t gotten a single mailer from the Dem candidates. 

There is absolutely zero pro Trump messaging. The message that I get bombarded with constantly is that there are marauding hordes of illegal immigrant criminals pillaging the country raping and murdering everyone while also getting everyone addicted to fentanyl, and Kamala is in favor of it. Somehow they’re also stealing everyone’s jobs, driving up the cost of homes, food, and healthcare. Also bob casey is responsible for inflation. 

They may not have people on the ground, but they are absolutely making sure people see their message. 

Well, someone should make the Harris Campaign aware that this is an important election and Pennsylvania is an important swing state.

Posted
2 hours ago, heso said:

From my perspective in PA as a 40 year old, middle class, suburban, white male, registered independent, I get FAR more messaging from Trump than from Harris. TV ads are probably 2-1. YouTube ads are probably 10-1. I get a physical mailer every single day. Those are probably 80% anti Harris, 20% anti Casey. I haven’t gotten a single mailer from the Dem candidates. 

There is absolutely zero pro Trump messaging. The message that I get bombarded with constantly is that there are marauding hordes of illegal immigrant criminals pillaging the country raping and murdering everyone while also getting everyone addicted to fentanyl, and Kamala is in favor of it. Somehow they’re also stealing everyone’s jobs, driving up the cost of homes, food, and healthcare. Also bob casey is responsible for inflation. 

They may not have people on the ground, but they are absolutely making sure people see their message. 

I don't agree with it, but the Harris campaign has you on a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet says you're white and independent. The data gurus project that, if you do bother to show up and vote, you're more likely to vote for Trump. That's why Trump is lovebombing you (he needs you, BIGLY) and Harris wouldn't lose sleep if you forgot to show up and vote (since they have you pegged as likely to vote Trump).

It's bizarre to me since all her messaging has been trying to court moderates, so you would think her ground game would be aligned with that messaging, but here we are.

Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Love me some Kaitlan Collins. I've said it before and I'll probably say it again, whatever room she ever finds herself in, she's probably almost always the smartest person there. She knows what these clueless rubes are gonna say before they do, and she's ready to respond before they can even spit it out.

I'd love to see her in a debate. When she's done, there would just be a smoking hole where the other person had been standing.

Edited by wood
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Posted
12 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

this plus repeal citizen's united, increase scotus seats, and abolish the electoral college and *voilà* republic saved

Give Kamala a Democratic Congress, and the Judiciary Act of 2025 is going to be a banger.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I don't agree with it, but the Harris campaign has you on a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet says you're white and independent. The data gurus project that, if you do bother to show up and vote, you're more likely to vote for Trump. That's why Trump is lovebombing you (he needs you, BIGLY) and Harris wouldn't lose sleep if you forgot to show up and vote (since they have you pegged as likely to vote Trump).

It's bizarre to me since all her messaging has been trying to court moderates, so you would think her ground game would be aligned with that messaging, but here we are.

@heso I'm not prying, but if you've maybe voted in a GOP primary in the past, or gone to a GOP fundraiser or signed a pro business/right leaning petition, you are on a list that is being sold and resold 100 times.  The Maryland Democrats are so deep in my fucking DMs right now that I'm considering a restraing order. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Good polling today

Leading in 6/7 swing states by Cook Political
+4 in WI by an A+ pollster
+5, +3, +3 nationally in the 3 that came out today
Texas poll by Scott Rasmussen that showed her at 46% (no real change from 2020 on that front)

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Posted
57 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well the two NE-02 polls showing her just killing him there. Suburban shift 

Yeah, but I think there are extenuating circumstances contributing to that. They are PISSED at the attempt to take their EV away and it's reflected in the polls there.

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Posted
1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Yeah, but I think there are extenuating circumstances contributing to that. They are PISSED at the attempt to take their EV away and it's reflected in the polls there.

I mean, we will see, but I think the suburbs are going further blue, which does not bode well for Trump. 

Posted
21 hours ago, C-Man said:

Stipe might be a Boomer but R.E.M. belongs to Gen X. 😁

And Gen X created the "mix tape" -- the OG playlists.

Dude, we (friends) were making mix tapes in 1977. We weren’t the first to do it, either. 
 

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Posted
33 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

Dude, we (friends) were making mix tapes in 1977. We weren’t the first to do it, either. 
 

BS show me an 8track mix tape

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Posted
8 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

October surprise incoming…

 

disrupting the election, promoting voter fraud and chaos, and so on is not in the duties of the President of the United States 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

speaking of...

 

I welcome any chance for this country to come together and act as people based who judge each other on nothing other than their character. I appreciate this effort and agree it's an opportunity to be seized. but i disagree it might be our only chance. we can at any point decide to stop being assholes - we don't have to wait for elections to do it

Edited by Longhorn_Fan68
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