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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
4 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Qpac is a good pollster, and those are bad numbers. I'd rather see Kamala win than see the Longhorns win CFP, so yeah I'm going to be concerned. Conservatives are not to be trusted and usually come home in November. I am not comfortable with a strategy that places any amount of trust in them as a voting bloc.

Whatever.  I just don’t think Kamala is losing votes because the Cheneys are voting for her and she acknowledges it.  

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

LOL can't wait for the video

 

Leeroy Jenkins!!!!!

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This shit has worked like once maybe twice in the last 70 years.  1960 LBJ, and that’s about it.  

I could make the case Harris helped carry GA For Biden and certainly helped in other key markets in PA and WI.

Posted

trump team just free balling ….

The Trump campaign is dragging its feet on beginning the formal process allowing for a smooth transition of power.

The campaign has missed two major deadlines to sign required federal documents and has failed to file an ethics plan for his prospective admin.

The delay allows him to circumvent fundraising rules and ethics rules. 

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Posted

There are six males in my family. Catholic. Two Longhorns two Aggies two Red Raiders. We try not to talk politics at all, and we still have very good relationships with each other. Even with that unstated politics ban, they know what I think about Trump. 


Of the five others, I can tell three have wanted to suggest to me they think Trump is a retard and a joke.  Expressions not made pre-2020.  So from my vantage point it still feels like defections must be happening from his camp.  Maybe it’s Jan 6.  Maybe it’s just the passage of time has beat down all the self delusion that gets constructed around these voters.  

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Posted
2 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

FDR was a progressive, you silly centrist. 
IMG_1421.thumb.jpeg.1abac4cbdf0d8fca3cd1e8a944e87b93.jpegIMG_1420.thumb.jpeg.24df9d8df2e01ee31859bce92dc07064.jpeg

 

FDR was also Uppah-Duppah Clahss with sailboats and dogs on radio and who knows what else that let you know that he was the Right Sort.

Not a screaming-on-the-corner kaffiyeh-clad nose-ring Poké-bowl-eating non-core-curriculum-knowing tech elf.

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Posted

Dotard blathering on tonight about Howard Stern.  

"I dropped him like a dog"

Sure you did Don.  Right after he declined your request to introduce you at the RNC, because he told you he was supporting Hillary. 

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Posted

Regarding Quinnipac:

Here is a long answer. So if you look at the spread of each pollster's results from survey to survey, in the same geography, Quinnipiac tends to be very high. Eg take the 9 point swing in 3 weeks compared to their last MI poll. It's fine if you get percentages moving by 4.5 points (margins by 9) between surveys on occasion, but it was 8 points before that in MI and 7 points poll-to-poll in their most recent national survey. This is high compared to other pollsters. Generally this indicates that something about the methodology is producing more noise than you'd expect based only on the sample size of the poll. And the answer is that they are using random digit dialing and doing a lot of weighting, so the MOE is about 30% higher than it would normally be per their own disclosure, and the low response rates and representativeness are also probably causing some sort of non-response that isn't captured by these statistics. None of this is to say that Q polls are inaccurate, but they are seemingly less reliable than other methods that do more work to equalize response rates on the sampling end or use other design approaches to decrease effects of weighting and other non-sampling biases.

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Posted

Especially because nothing has happened to fundamentally move the race by 9 points in a swing state. It’s been a remarkably stable race since mid-August. 

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Posted
16 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

FDR was also Uppah-Duppah Clahss with sailboats and dogs on radio and who knows what else that let you know that he was the Right Sort.

Not a screaming-on-the-corner kaffiyeh-clad nose-ring Poké-bowl-eating non-core-curriculum-knowing tech elf.

UT has a (famous) history prof with a good book on that

61NMqxE2ZTL._SL1200_.jpg

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Posted
19 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

There are six males in my family. Catholic. Two Longhorns two Aggies two Red Raiders. We try not to talk politics at all, and we still have very good relationships with each other. Even with that unstated politics ban, they know what I think about Trump. 


Of the five others, I can tell three have wanted to suggest to me they think Trump is a retard and a joke.  Expressions not made pre-2020.  So from my vantage point it still feels like defections must be happening from his camp.  Maybe it’s Jan 6.  Maybe it’s just the passage of time has beat down all the self delusion that gets constructed around these voters.  

I think a lot of it is straight up Trump fatigue. The same person hasn’t run in 3 straight elections since FDR.  He’s been on the scene for so long and his act is getting old 

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Posted
50 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

trump team just free balling ….

The Trump campaign is dragging its feet on beginning the formal process allowing for a smooth transition of power.

The campaign has missed two major deadlines to sign required federal documents and has failed to file an ethics plan for his prospective admin.

The delay allows him to circumvent fundraising rules and ethics rules. 

So the penalty for breaking some rules is ... you get to break some other rules?

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Posted
1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, that guy above said it best.  They can revolt and remove someone from power.  Yay, goody, great.  But you need to consider who takes power when you do that.  Revolution without regard to the outcome is foolish.

Oh. Exactly like aggy and their coach last year?  It’s almost as if aggy and dotard supporters are EXACTLY THE SAME. Not in a Venn diagram way, as we have a FUCK TON of longhorn fans on this very board that are too fucking dumb to make this connection. It’s fucking infuriating. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Getting?

Fair but you get my point. His act works less effectively after he lost 

Posted
1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

trump team just free balling ….

The Trump campaign is dragging its feet on beginning the formal process allowing for a smooth transition of power.

The campaign has missed two major deadlines to sign required federal documents and has failed to file an ethics plan for his prospective admin.

The delay allows him to circumvent fundraising rules and ethics rules. 

They don't give a fuck about the transition, because they don't give a fuck about governing.  Remember 2016:  Obama was very grateful to W for easing his transition and ordered his staff to "pay it forward".   Every single department was completely ready to hand it over to Trump's people.  At the Department of Energy, the bosses were literally standing at the door as Trump took the oath, expecting that stupid fucking Aggie Rick Perry's team to walk through the door to take over.  The Obama people stood their with their cocks in their hands for hours before anybody from the Trump admin showed up. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

They don't give a fuck about the transition, because they don't give a fuck about governing.  Remember 2016:  Obama was very grateful to W for easing his transition and ordered his staff to "pay it forward".   Every single department was completely ready to hand it over to Trump's people.  At the Department of Energy, the bosses were literally standing at the door as Trump took the oath, expecting that stupid fucking Aggie Rick Perry's team to walk through the door to take over.  The Obama people stood their with their cocks in their hands for hours before anybody from the Trump admin showed up. 

And when they did show up, the dotard people told them all to fuck off. Including the DOE people who were in charge of the nuclear fucking weapons. I’m amazed we aren’t dead. Or are we?

Posted
2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

And when they did show up, the dotard people told them all to fuck off. Including the DOE people who were in charge of the nuclear fucking weapons. I’m amazed we aren’t dead. Or are we?

Well we def all ended up in hell 

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Posted

You gotta love the way Putin clowns Trump for grins. Trump sheepishly denies sending COVID testing machines to Putin. Upon learning of Trump’s denial, Putin immediately confirm receipt of the machines. And idiot Trump thinks Putin is his friend:

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/09/trump-putin-covid-testing-equipment-kremlin

The Kremlin on Wednesday confirmed a report that former President Trump sent Russian President Vladimir Putin COVID-19 testing equipment during the height of the pandemic. 

Why it matters: The Trump campaign categorically denied new revelations in journalist Bob Woodward's book "War," which renewed scrutiny of the relationship between Putin and the Republican presidential nominee.

Catch up quick: Woodward reported in his book that during the early days of the pandemic, Trump sent scarcely available COVID-19 testing machines for the Russian leader's personal use.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:


He has my vote!

Hope his odds are higher than (Abdul can you give me a number crunch real quick?) 32.33 repeating of course % of winning. 

Edited by Superhero
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Posted
3 hours ago, speed817 said:

 

 

He’s a very, very sick man. He just keeps repeating himself over and over. His mental decline is so obvious. He really should be on suicide watch. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Regarding Quinnipac:

Here is a long answer. So if you look at the spread of each pollster's results from survey to survey, in the same geography, Quinnipiac tends to be very high. Eg take the 9 point swing in 3 weeks compared to their last MI poll. It's fine if you get percentages moving by 4.5 points (margins by 9) between surveys on occasion, but it was 8 points before that in MI and 7 points poll-to-poll in their most recent national survey. This is high compared to other pollsters. Generally this indicates that something about the methodology is producing more noise than you'd expect based only on the sample size of the poll. And the answer is that they are using random digit dialing and doing a lot of weighting, so the MOE is about 30% higher than it would normally be per their own disclosure, and the low response rates and representativeness are also probably causing some sort of non-response that isn't captured by these statistics. None of this is to say that Q polls are inaccurate, but they are seemingly less reliable than other methods that do more work to equalize response rates on the sampling end or use other design approaches to decrease effects of weighting and other non-sampling biases.


 

nerds GIF

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Posted
7 hours ago, chainsaw said:

Jill Stein got completely embarrassed on Breakfast Club.

Jill Stein can't talk to black people!? No wai!

7 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Liberal media.

 

Even accepting the premise for the sake of argument (I'm not sure I actually would) - that's not necessarily inappropriate. It's a different electorate in a different national environment/zeitgeist, against a different, single opponent. The 2019 primary has never been a good argument for Harris being a weak candidate. 

5 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Tim Walz is a bust. Doesn't seem to be helping the campaign at all.

VP's don't help campaigns. They are a pass/fail, do no harm item. Walz clears that bar.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

As far as Walz goes, he might not be helping everywhere, but he would fit in in so many rural areas so comfortably and people relate to that, vs Vance.   I don't see him as a negative, or even a non-factor.  He is appealing to those rural voters in so many states that might help blue tickets win more down ballot races.  So, for the presidency he might be a draw, but for down ballot he's a plus.  He makes it easier to not pull a lever for Trump.   People could live with him in a position of power, they'd trust him.   

 

 

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Jill Stein can't talk to black people!? No wai!

Even accepting the premise for the sake of argument (I'm not sure I actually would) - that's not necessarily inappropriate. It's a different electorate in a different national environment/zeitgeist, against a different, single opponent. The 2019 primary has never been a good argument for Harris being a weak candidate. 

VP's don't help campaigns. They are a pass/fail, do no harm item. Walz clears that bar.

Agreed on Harris 19 vs. now.  Different kind of race.  Also, her "failure" was that she ran out of money.  Not an issue here.  And that failure netted her a vp slot on the ticket, leading to being a vp to an elderly president, and presidential nomination four years later.  I wish all my failures were so productive. 

Regarding Walz, I think people underestimate his value in NE-2 (he is a native Nebraska and his trip electrified the district) and Wisconsin (shares a border with Minnesota and parts of the state get Minneapolis media).  Even Michigan is probably helped with the upper Midwest vibe.  Harris being from California might make those states a bigger reach.  

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Posted
12 hours ago, chainsaw said:

. This kind of performance is unacceptable.

Unacceptable? Sincerely, you are an absolute moron. You're a borderline troll at this point. 

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Posted
trump team just free balling ….
The Trump campaign is dragging its feet on beginning the formal process allowing for a smooth transition of power.
The campaign has missed two major deadlines to sign required federal documents and has failed to file an ethics plan for his prospective admin.
The delay allows him to circumvent fundraising rules and ethics rules. 

Dotard has a history of blowing off little things like transitions. Maybe Rick Perry will reappear to lead the team.
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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

FDR was a progressive, you silly centrist. 

Great, go get him and he can explain himself. While you’re at it you can explain why you, a progressive, were caping for Citizens United a few years back. Wasn’t it for “more freedom,” or something?
Electoral politics are about who, not what, and if you don’t win you ain’t shit.

 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
9 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Part of the reason I think you’re going to see a lot of quiet Harris voters from the I and R folks—they are just tired and want him to go away. 

That's the hope. Unenthusiastic but reliable voters. 

Gotta think there are A LOT more Harris voters in the "let's just get this election over with" crowd. 

 

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Posted
7 hours ago, The Dog said:

Apparently Texas poll also dropping tonight. Dunno why but they doing it anyway.

Phbt here’s the rest:

 

That makes a lot more sense than NYT Trump 13 in FL lol

YouGov also dropped a Harris +2 in PA

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Posted
8 hours ago, The Dog said:

Apparently Texas poll also dropping tonight. Dunno why but they doing it anyway.

Phbt here’s the rest:

 

These numbers feel about right, for Texas. Those are insane for FL.

4 hours ago, LTbear said:

Unacceptable? Sincerely, you are an absolute moron. You're a borderline troll at this point. 

Great post

Posted
18 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

Image

There is some delicious irony about this being posted by a fucking former president of the united states, specifically about rating, with a huge "332 retruths and 1.22k likes" metric at the bottom to show how few people he's reaching. He's not even popular on his own tiny echo chamber, holy shit.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

Hillary lost because her last name is Clinton and she doesn't have the personality to overcome that. Full stop. What you seem to be missing is that progressive ideology won't win you THIS election because old people vote, and old Ds are more moderate than progressive. You go full progressive and you get killed in a landslide because Trump's numbers don't move. The only way forward is by convincing the Rs that are turned off from Trump that it is safe to vote for you.

Trump is a cult leader. You have to beat his 46-48% because he will not budge. You do that with a Walz running mate to win the plains folk. Stay moderate enough to get the turned off Rs to hold their nose and pull the lever for you. Hammer his ass with POCs and Women looking to get their autonomy back. She is going about it the right way. The issue is Trump is pulling a Reagan and circling back around and colluding with world leaders against this admin in regards to these wars, and these Hurricanes and the disinfo isn't helping at all.

tl;dr for dumbasses: "vote with your heart in the primary, vote with your brain in the general"

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Great, go get him and he can explain himself. While you’re at it you can explain why you, a progressive, were caping for Citizens United a few years back. Wasn’t it for “more freedom,” or something?
Electoral politics are about who, not what, and if you don’t win you ain’t shit.

 

Wait? Waspark championed Citizens United? Seriously?

4 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

There is some delicious irony about this being posted by a fucking former president of the united states, specifically about rating, with a huge "332 retruths and 1.22k likes" metric at the bottom to show how few people he's reaching. He's not even popular on his own tiny echo chamber, holy shit.

Well, to be fair, that's the screenshot from Truth. Which has like no users. Tell me what the views were when that screenshot was posted on whatever Twitter handle passes it along to the masses on twitter.

Posted

I mean, I think polling is pretty broken when 2 polls release within days and one says Trump +13 in FL and one says Trump +4 in FL

Like that shouldn’t happen. +4 and +6, yeah. But a 9 point difference says something is fundamentally wrong with the industry. 

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