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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

NO, they have been fed disinformation and propaganda to get a result.

It worked.

I don't think this is accurate.  Every major media outlet has a story/article when the Biden admin approves another round of weapons to Israel.  Not disinformation.  

And everyone who has tiktok, twitter, or instagram can see videos of kids with half their face missing or limbs blown off.  I have an instagram I share with the wife and the ONLY people we follow are parenting experts, psychologists, teachers, etc.  And several times now I've opened the app and the first fucking thing I see is a dead kid from Gaza.  I don't think it's propaganda.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Holy shit that is the most gloriously ironic example of self-delusion I’ve ever read on this board. Are you serious? 

You understand that this entire discussion started because several posters reacted to reports of Muslim support of Trump by freaking out and wishing harm on them? 

If you’re looking for people having tantrums and demanding that anyone who doesn’t do what they want must suffer, look in the fucking mirror.

Do you share the same level of concern and empathy for women who are pro-choice who vote for Trump because he told them that "he's great for women." Is that reasonable?

Just trying to understand when were supposed to care when the leopards attack.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

You're going to have to spell this one out for me. I don't follow.

I am saying that the "walking a tightrope" analogy assumes some sort of balance between two bad consequences - falling off right or falling off left.  In the case of political campaign, it generally means striking a balance that loses the least votes.  And that affects policy between the elections.  If the Arab American or Muslim American votes can just be assumed, there is no longer balance.  It's not a tight rope anymore.  Do you disagree with any of that? 

Posted
Just now, Foosters said:

Do you share the same level of concern and empathy for women who are pro-choice who vote for Trump because he told them that "he's great for women." Is that reasonable?

Apples and oranges. Trump altered the Supreme Court composition specifically to get rid of Roe. He has provably been worse for women than the Biden admin.

That’s not at all similar to the situation for Muslims. 

Posted

I'm sick to my stomach for what's happening in Gaza, and BIden has been a fucking disaster.  A gargantuan fuckup nightmare. 

Trump is literally in bed with Netanyahu. Being reasonable is thinking there's a better chance of Trump deporting or jailing Arab Americans in Michigan and throughout the US than lifting a finger to stop the genocide. 

 

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Posted

Regarding military support of Israel, it appears the spike in the last year is significantly related to missile defense (assuming I'm reading this chart correctly, and I may not be):

image.png.fbe3b299bc0060a626dddd0d41cf61e4.png

Posted
6 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

People that emigrated from oppressive regimes, especially communist ones, seem to strongly prefer dictatorship to anything that might in some way be considered socialist. 

The Persians don’t really have any experience with socialism, but some of the olds do recall the Shah fondly and I think there’s some sympathy for the authoritarianism.  The younger, 2nd gen vote like their white generational peers and most lean Dem because they had to become white collar professionals or risk the wrath of maman and baba.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Nobody wished harm on them that I recall. They said they wouldn't feel bad when it happened. That's a significant difference. 

Also, you are incorrect that a reasonable assessment based only on Arab relations would result in a vote for Trump. That's an absurd thing to say, really. Your argument makes more sense when you stick to ascribing their decision to emotion (they've seen people die) than reason. Because reason doesn't explain it, not even close.

I believe Js1 mentioned a nuke.  Though it may have been hyperbole, nukes don't tend to explode in 5x25 mile rectangles.  Nobody should be indifferent to a nuke hitting any part of that region.

And I agree with the emotion part.  Seeing the horrors of war on a smartphone elicits some kind of feeling, speaking personally.  Of course I'm able to try and think logically so I know trump will almost certainly make it worse.  But I'm not muslim and have no family in Palestine.  

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

image.gif.02b679921860693519b3bb08f5ec508d.gif

unless 'reasonable' has evolved to mean fascist and/or moronic.

nobody's buying that Trump is a 'reasonable' choice in any situation.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Or some of us know there's literally nothing Biden can do that won't lose Kamala votes. He withholds funding to Israel, he gives Trump an easy issue to rail on and he loses her Jewish votes. Bibi still doesn't stop the bombing and he whines that America doesn't have Israel's back. He doesn't do anything, he loses her Muslim votes. 

I'm with you. Which is why I'm still supportive of him and her. But I'm still right.

Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Okay then. Lay out your argument. 

Your premise is that it is reasonable to conclude, based on available information, that fewer Palestinians will die under a second Trump administration than a Harris  administration 

I think you need to lay out an argument for that, other than than “Israel is killing Palestinians under Biden’s watch” 

Edited by Sawbonz
Strike that, reverse it
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Posted
11 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

People that emigrated from oppressive regimes, especially communist ones, seem to strongly prefer dictatorship to anything that might in some way be considered socialist. 

My barber is an older Vietnamese man who came here in the 70s, and he totally buys Trump saying that Harris is a “communist”. Once you say “she’s a C word”, his brain shuts off.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

I'm with you. Which is why I'm still supportive of him and her. But I'm still right.

You might be but I think it's a lot easier to force Bibi to the table when the threat of Trump is removed. Right now, Bibi won't lift a finger to help Kamala. Why would he? He can help gin up outrage and get the guy in who will not even bother asking him to stop. If she is elected, he'll start running out of options. 

Edited by mdmost
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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Remember, they did media studies that the more negative she went on Trump, the more it hurt her numbers.  Voters responded way better to her positive ads.

She chased down dotard, passed him and built a lead while her campaign team was clowning his ass non-stop calling them weird, labeling JDV a couch fucker, hammering them about Project 2025, talking about women bleeding out in hospital parking lots, etc. Then they went cutsey compassionate and the lead is gone. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

People that emigrated from oppressive regimes, especially communist ones, seem to strongly prefer dictatorship to anything that might in some way be considered socialist. 

Importing the culture they tried to escape. But god forbid a not-white-passing minority tries to do the same 

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Posted
Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

She chased down dotard, passed him and built a lead while her campaign team was clowning his ass non-stop calling them weird, labeling JDV a couch fucker, hammering them about Project 2025, talking about women bleeding out in hospital parking lots, etc. Then they went cutsey compassionate and the lead is gone. 

Only if you believe the polls. Again, why would I believe a bunch of right wing slop that was wrong 2 years ago? But caused the media and pundits to declare it would be a red wave the week of the election?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Todd Gack said:

I believe Js1 mentioned a nuke.  Though it may have been hyperbole, nukes don't tend to explode in 5x25 mile rectangles.  Nobody should be indifferent to a nuke hitting any part of that region.

And I agree with the emotion part.  Seeing the horrors of war on a smartphone elicits some kind of feeling, speaking personally.  Of course I'm able to try and think logically so I know trump will almost certainly make it worse.  But I'm not muslim and have no family in Palestine.  

Right I agree the sentiment is terrible but he didn't say he hopes it happens. And I'm with you, it's easy for me to say they're not being rational because I'm not the one with personal attachments to the people and the region. Their decision is understandable, but that's not the same thing as being reasonable. I won't insult this important topic by making a bad analogy, but everyone can come up with plenty of examples of something being understandable but not reasonable. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Posted
3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Off topic but a political issue.

  • 1974 - minimum wage was raised to $2
  • 1991 - it hit $4.25. More than doubling it in 17 years.

We’re now 33 years later and it’s $7.25. At this rate, it may double the 1991 rate by the 50 year mark. Maybe.

i checked a cost of living calculator, and the 1991 $4.25 would be $9.50 now. 

The fact that the national minimum wage has not been increased since 1991 is criminal.  

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Posted
52 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

I tend to agree, but reasonable minds differ. It’s voting against the devil you know and it’s perfectly logical even if the assumptions on which it is based ultimately prove flawed.

Trump is also the devil they know. They lived with him for 4 years as he banned mulsim entry into their country and stoked race violence in other races. They resoundingly voted against him in 2020, becuase they saw the devil they knew fucking sucked. And they've had a year of being able to listen to the things coming out of his own mouth that he'll do to escalate the situation in Gaza and make things harder on Muslims in the US. So lets not pretend it's some unknowable risk. It's a knowable risk, and that risk also can't stop running his mouth about all the shit he will do when elected. Your illustration here is borderline bad faith. 

33 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

They’re not voting out or petulance, unless you think desperation to try anything to end the massacre of their friends and family is “petulant.” This isn’t a fucking tantrum. It’s a direct response to policy choices by the administration that resulted in the displacement and death of thousands of their fellow Muslims. 

Jesus fucking Christ. How hard is it to understand that genocide is a serious issue and it’s not childish to take a moral stand against it (even if that requires making risky trade offs)?

I’ve had these conversations with Muslim friends who are far from petulant or unreasonable. Their decision to withhold support from Kamala or even vote Trump are measured and account for the risks and tradeoffs. Which is a lot more than I can say for the knee jerk reaction of the head-in-sand crew on this thread.

Again, characterizing this as a risky trade-off is absurd at best, intentionally decieving at worst. As Fooster's said, please, outline all the various trade-offs, pros and cons, etc. If they're not acting emotionally, or petulantly, then how do you square the measured and thoughtful response to voting for a man who says "He will increase aid to Israel and he will deport all the mulsims/immigrants/browns from this country, and intern them in the process?

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Posted

It's understandable to see the news/photos/videos and immediately think "It can't get worse than this in Gaza". But then if you critically think, it ABSOLUTELY can and will get worse if Trump becomes President. 

There are no good answers, but the argument that Kamala (post-election victory) would challenge Netanyahu and help end these atrocities is the only answer on the multiple choice test that could be correct outside of "none of the above". 

 

 

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Posted

Also I absolutely agree that desperate people make unreasonable/irrational choices, and I will try my best to be empathetic towards them if those choices result in Trump coming back into power. 

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Posted

He's all I can tell you, @BrickHorn--in 2017 when Trump implemented his "Muslim ban," a bunch of lawyers sprinted down to airports right across the country to greet Muslims (including green-card holders) who were being denied entry to file lawsuits on their behalf pro bono.

When Trump does it again in 2025, fucking nobody's going to any airport to help.  

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I am saying that the "walking a tightrope" analogy assumes some sort of balance between two bad consequences - falling off right or falling off left.  In the case of political campaign, it generally means striking a balance that loses the least votes.  And that affects policy between the elections.  If the Arab American or Muslim American votes can just be assumed, there is no longer balance.  It's not a tight rope anymore.  Do you disagree with any of that? 

Not at all. And I can certainly understand their anger, frustration, and hesitancy to vote for what they see as a continuation of the current administration's policies. Basically, we can get Ukraine to follow strict guidelines in order to continue receiving weapons; why can't we do the same with Israel?

The tightrope is lose a lot of votes from a smaller community or a lot of votes from a larger community (not just Jews, but everyone who will raise an eyebrow that we seemingly withdrew support from an ally and sided with those "pro-Hamas" protesters they hear so much about).

And opting for the latter obviously wouldn't stop the violence. Israel doesn't need any more of our weapons to enact their will on the region. Which is why I'm sure many here would support some kind of humanitarian aid only policy...after the election.

Posted
Just now, Ghost of LL said:

He's all I can tell you, @BrickHorn--in 2017 when Trump implemented his "Muslim ban," a bunch of lawyers sprinted down to airports right across the country to greet Muslims (including green-card holders) who were being denied entry to file lawsuits on their behalf pro bono.

When Trump does it again in 2025, fucking nobody's going to any airport to help.  

From what I understand, a good number of Jews are upset with the BLM crowd.  The Jews feel that they were 100% supportive of BLM but now BLM is for Hamas.   

But to your point, no one is going to give a fuck if that happens again.

Posted (edited)

Here's me on this thread, whenever I see a big white box that will eventually materialize into a screen cap or twitter post after about 5-10 seconds:

Immediately scroll to the bottom of the post to see if there's a majority of horns up / smile emojis vs rage emojis. That way I can prepare myself for whatever information will eventually display on my laptop. 

Key to my emotions:

Horns up / heart emojis = good polling data, wait for the white box to morph with quiet confidence

Rage emojis = bad polling data or Trump saying something especially racist (beyond his usual baseline), feel stomach drop while waiting for the bad news

Laugh emojis = Trump or Vance being their usual dipshit selves or the Harris camp doing something badass to put the Rs in their rightful place, wait for the info to materialize with optimism but also know that a lot of shit that people think is funny is actually regarded

Drool emojis= some sexy photo or especially promising polling data, hope like hell for the latter but resign myself to time in my bunk if it's the former

Edited by honolulu horn
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Posted (edited)

Kamala has said repeatedly that we need to get a ceasefire done that protects people in Gaza. She refused to go to the Bibi's address of Congress and made him come to see her at the Old Executive office building. Trump hasn't said one word about a ceasefire, has said Biden shouldn't be stepping in Bibi's way, and tells Bibi he shouldn't agree to any deal. So they're obviously the same.

James Franco GIF

Edited by mdmost
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Posted

Not exactly news, but it’s terrifying that this is where we are:

Journalist Bob Woodward said in an interview with podcaster Tim Miller on October 17 that Dan CoatsDonald Trump's former director of national intelligence, suspects Russian President Vladimir Putin is blackmailing the Republican nominee

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-intel-chief-dan-coats-suspected-putins-blackmail-bob-woodward-1971807

On Miller's The Bulwark Podcast, Woodward discussed how he spoke with Coats while writing his latest book, War, about Trump's relationship with Putin during his presidency and after.

Discussing the pair's relationship, which Coats reportedly called an "enigma," Woodward said, "Coats who, for two and a half years was Trump's director of national intelligence, all the intelligence agencies, including the CIA, sees this. They don't have all of the information, but he sees it."

He continued, "This is so strange, it is so subservient on Trump's part. He actually asks when I discussed this with Coats several months ago, he said 'is this blackmail?' In other words, is Trump being blackmailed?"

 

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

Okay then. Lay out your argument. 

You've said there is a reasonable argument that Trump will be better than Harris. There isn't. He said he won't be. Trump said he wants Bibi to punish those in Gaza. I don't see any reasonable argument that can be made that he in fact will not support those things. 

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-claims-netanyahu-disregarded-bidens-advice-on-war-was-right-to-do-so/

Quote

Former US president Donald Trump claimed Saturday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has disregarded the advice of his successor, US President Joe Biden, adding that Israel is in a better position in its ongoing multi-front war because of it.

* * *

“Bibi didn’t listen to him and I’ll tell you what, they’re in a much stronger position now than they were three months ago… Nobody’s ever seen anything like that,” Trump said

* * * 

“[Netanyahu] said, ‘It’s incredible what’s happened,’ and I said, ‘It’s pretty incredible,” Trump said of the call, adding: “But he wouldn’t listen to Biden, because if he did, they wouldn’t be in this position.”

* * * 

“He was asking what I thought. And I just said, you do what you have to do,” Trump said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/27/trump-israel-gaza-policy-donors/ (pay wall)

Quote

Trump told donors he will crush pro-Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/20/g-s1-23859/trump-jewish-voters-israel-election-2024

Quote

Trump tells Jewish voters they have 'no excuse' for supporting Harris

Former President Donald Trump is casting himself as Israel’s "protector" and warning Jewish voters against supporting his rival, Vice President Harris.

Trump addressed the Israeli-American Council summit in Washington, D.C, on Thursday, during an evening focused on commemorating the October 7 attacks that sparked Israel’s war with Hamas.

Speaking to a mostly friendly crowd, Trump touted his past support for Israel and, without providing evidence, claimed that the Jewish state will soon cease to exist unless he’s elected.

“It’s total annihilation — that’s what you’re talking about,” Trump said. “You have a big protector in me. You don’t have a protector on the other side.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-criticized-palestinian-insult-debate-with-biden-2024-06-28/

Quote

 

Trump criticized for 'Palestinian' insult in debate with Biden

* * * 

"The only one who wants the war to continue is Hamas," Biden said. Trump responded by saying Biden has "become like a Palestinian," which rights advocates said came across as a slur.

"Actually, Israel is the one (that wants to keep going), and you should let them go and let them finish the job. He (Biden) doesn’t want to do it. He's become like a Palestinian but they don't like him because he's a very bad Palestinian. He's a weak one," Trump said.

 

So yeah, you tell me how you can objectively and reasonably make the argument that the guy that wants Israel to finish the job and treats Palestinian like an insult is good for them. If you're only argument is that well, it didn't happen when he was President, that's merely because conditions in the area hadn't yet deteriorated to the point of war. It isn't because of anything he did or any position he had. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Satchel said:

Not exactly news, but it’s terrifying that this is where we are:

Journalist Bob Woodward said in an interview with podcaster Tim Miller on October 17 that Dan CoatsDonald Trump's former director of national intelligence, suspects Russian President Vladimir Putin is blackmailing the Republican nominee

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-intel-chief-dan-coats-suspected-putins-blackmail-bob-woodward-1971807

On Miller's The Bulwark Podcast, Woodward discussed how he spoke with Coats while writing his latest book, War, about Trump's relationship with Putin during his presidency and after.

Discussing the pair's relationship, which Coats reportedly called an "enigma," Woodward said, "Coats who, for two and a half years was Trump's director of national intelligence, all the intelligence agencies, including the CIA, sees this. They don't have all of the information, but he sees it."

He continued, "This is so strange, it is so subservient on Trump's part. He actually asks when I discussed this with Coats several months ago, he said 'is this blackmail?' In other words, is Trump being blackmailed?"

 

 

No

Fuckin

Shit

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Posted

Here's some lunchtime analysis of Texas early vote data and what it could mean about enthusiasm

Day One 2020 vs. Day One 2024

Nine populous Blue-ish Counties (no data yet for Hays and Williamson)

Spoiler

Harris County (Biden won by 13.25 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.16 percent in Harris County vs. 4.69 percent in 2024 (a .47 YoY drop)

Dallas County (Biden won by 31.6 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.36 percent in Dallas County vs. 4.36 percent in 2024 (a .54 YoY drop)

Tarrant County (Biden won by .22 points so not fully Blue more like 50/50) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.49 in Tarrant County vs. 4.45 in 2024 (a .96 YoY increase)

Bexar County (Biden won by 18.15 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.78 percent in Bexar County vs. 3.61 percent in 2024 (a .93 YoY increase)

Travis County (Biden won by 44.98 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.19 percent in Travis County vs. 5.03 percent in 2024 (a .84 YoY increase)

El Paso County (Biden won by 35.10 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.9 percent in El Paso County vs. 3.42 percent in 2024 (a .47 YoY drop)

Fort Bend County (Biden won by 10.56 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.66 percent in Fort Bend County vs. 5.48 percent in 2024 (a 1.92 YoY increase)

Hidalgo County (Biden won by 17.06 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.85 percent in Hidalgo County vs. 4.09 percent in 2024 (a .76 YoY drop)

Cameron County (Biden won by 13.15 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.02 percent in Cameron County vs. 4.65 percent in 2024 (a .37 YoY drop)


Eight populous Red Counties (no usable data yet for Bell, Lubbock, or Smith)

Spoiler

 

Collin County (Trump won by 4.34 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.08 percent in Collin County vs. 5.8 percent in 2024 (a .28 YoY increase)

Denton County (Trump won by 8.08 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.38 percent in Denton County vs. 7.53 percent in 2024 (a 1.15 YoY increase)

Montgomery County (Trump won by 43.83 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.8 percent in Montgomery County vs. 3.65 in 2024 (a .85 YoY increase)

Galveston County (Trump won by 22.61 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 7.56 percent in Galveston County vs. 6.93 percent in 2024 (a .63 YoY drop)

Brazoria County (Trump won by 18.20 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.89 percent in Brazoria County vs. 6.67 percent in 2024 (a .78 YoY increase)

Nueces County (Trump won by 2.90 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.69 percent in Nueces County vs. 4.15 percent in 2024 (a .54 YoY drop)

McLennan County (Trump won by 23.35 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.45 percent in McLennan County vs. 3.85 in 2024 (a 0.4 YoY increase)

Jefferson County (Trump won by 1.58 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.14 percent in Hidalgo County vs. 6.24 percent in 2024 (a .1 YoY increase)

Not sure what to make of this data. If I get a chance I might try and drill down and see which precinct's voters were showing up in Tarrant, Fort Bend, Collin, and Denton counties.

But if we're using this as a way to estimate voter enthusiasm, these shifts don't line up much with the narrative that Trumpy areas are less motivated to get out and vote. I'm limiting all this to Texas, of course.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

Here's me on this thread, whenever I see a big white box that will eventually materialize into a screen cap or twitter post after about 5-10 seconds:

Immediately scroll to the bottom of the post to see if there's a majority of horns up / smile emojis vs rage emojis. That way I can prepare myself for whatever information will eventually display on my laptop. 

Key to my emotions:

Horns up / heart emojis = good polling data, wait for the white box to morph with quiet confidence

Rage emojis = bad polling data or Trump saying something especially racist (beyond his usual baseline), feel stomach drop while waiting for the bad news

Laugh emojis = Trump or Vance being their usual dipshit selves or the Harris camp doing something badass to put the Rs in their rightful place, wait for the info to materialize with optimism but also know that a lot of shit that people think is funny is actually regarded

Drool emojis= some sexy photo or especially promising polling data, hope like hell for the latter but resign myself to time in my bunk if it's the former

You need faster internet.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Here's some lunchtime analysis of Texas early vote data and what it could mean about enthusiasm

Day One 2020 vs. Day One 2024

Nine populous Blue-ish Counties (no data yet for Hays and Williamson)

  Reveal hidden contents

Harris County (Biden won by 13.25 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.16 percent in Harris County vs. 4.69 percent in 2024 (a .47 YoY drop)

Dallas County (Biden won by 31.6 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.36 percent in Dallas County vs. 4.36 percent in 2024 (a .54 YoY drop)

Tarrant County (Biden won by .22 points so not fully Blue more like 50/50) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.49 in Tarrant County vs. 4.45 in 2024 (a .96 YoY increase)

Bexar County (Biden won by 18.15 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.78 percent in Bexar County vs. 3.61 percent in 2024 (a .93 YoY increase)

Travis County (Biden won by 44.98 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.19 percent in Travis County vs. 5.03 percent in 2024 (a .84 YoY increase)

El Paso County (Biden won by 35.10 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.9 percent in El Paso County vs. 3.42 percent in 2024 (a .47 YoY drop)

Fort Bend County (Biden won by 10.56 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.66 percent in Fort Bend County vs. 5.48 percent in 2024 (a 1.92 YoY increase)

Hidalgo County (Biden won by 17.06 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.85 percent in Hidalgo County vs. 4.09 percent in 2024 (a .76 YoY drop)

Cameron County (Biden won by 13.15 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.02 percent in Cameron County vs. 4.65 percent in 2024 (a .37 YoY drop)


Eight populous Red Counties (no usable data yet for Bell, Lubbock, or Smith)

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Collin County (Trump won by 4.34 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.08 percent in Collin County vs. 5.8 percent in 2024 (a .28 YoY increase)

Denton County (Trump won by 8.08 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.38 percent in Denton County vs. 7.53 percent in 2024 (a 1.15 YoY increase)

Montgomery County (Trump won by 43.83 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 2.8 percent in Montgomery County vs. 3.65 in 2024 (a .85 YoY increase)

Galveston County (Trump won by 22.61 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 7.56 percent in Galveston County vs. 6.93 percent in 2024 (a .63 YoY drop)

Brazoria County (Trump won by 18.20 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 5.89 percent in Brazoria County vs. 6.67 percent in 2024 (a .78 YoY increase)

Nueces County (Trump won by 2.90 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 4.69 percent in Nueces County vs. 4.15 percent in 2024 (a .54 YoY drop)

McLennan County (Trump won by 23.35 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 3.45 percent in McLennan County vs. 3.85 in 2024 (a 0.4 YoY increase)

Jefferson County (Trump won by 1.58 points) - 2020 Day One turnout was 6.14 percent in Hidalgo County vs. 6.24 percent in 2024 (a .1 YoY increase)

Not sure what to make of this data. If I get a chance I might try and drill down and see which precinct's voters were showing up in Tarrant, Fort Bend, Collin, and Denton counties.

But if we're using this as a way to estimate voter enthusiasm, these shifts don't line up much with the narrative that Trumpy areas are less motivated to get out and vote. I'm limiting all this to Texas, of course.

It’s REALLY hard to make sweeping assumptions and compare 2024 to 2020. That was truly a once in a lifetime type of election.  The extreme polarization of early/mail vs Election Day doesn’t really exist anymore

The big thing is the GOP is not demonizing it this time. They want it bank votes bc their candidate could stroke out at any moment. Or be shot at, again 

Edited by Js1
Posted
7 minutes ago, Satchel said:

Not exactly news, but it’s terrifying that this is where we are:

Journalist Bob Woodward said in an interview with podcaster Tim Miller on October 17 that Dan CoatsDonald Trump's former director of national intelligence, suspects Russian President Vladimir Putin is blackmailing the Republican nominee

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-intel-chief-dan-coats-suspected-putins-blackmail-bob-woodward-1971807

On Miller's The Bulwark Podcast, Woodward discussed how he spoke with Coats while writing his latest book, War, about Trump's relationship with Putin during his presidency and after.

Discussing the pair's relationship, which Coats reportedly called an "enigma," Woodward said, "Coats who, for two and a half years was Trump's director of national intelligence, all the intelligence agencies, including the CIA, sees this. They don't have all of the information, but he sees it."

He continued, "This is so strange, it is so subservient on Trump's part. He actually asks when I discussed this with Coats several months ago, he said 'is this blackmail?' In other words, is Trump being blackmailed?"

 

 

I have no idea how you blackmail someone that leads a cult and has absolutely no shame.

Posted
8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

So yeah, you tell me how you can objectively and reasonably make the argument that the guy that wants Israel to finish the job and treats Palestinian like an insult is good for them.

He was just kidding; didn't mean it, my dude.

Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

It’s REALLY hard to make sweeping assumptions and compare 2024 to 2020. That was truly a once in a lifetime type of election.  The extreme polarization of early/mail vs Election Day doesn’t really exist anymore

The big thing is the GOP is not demonizing it this time. They want it bank votes bc their candidate could stroke out at any moment. Or be shot at, again 

I liked what I saw in Travis and Bexar counties, so long as the right folks have been showing up. That's why it's hard to say what these numbers mean, especially somewhere like Fort Bend.

Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, immamac said:

this isn't the fucking israel thread. 

The President of the United States isn't in charge of Israel. The election isn't about Israel. Stop posting about it here. 

It would be really nice if your random severe moderating didn't delete a post I spent some time on 5 seconds after I posted it with no fucking warning. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted
Just now, Dahobbs said:

It would be really nice if your random severe moderating didn't delete a post I spent some time on 5 seconds after I posted it with no fucking warning. 

i didn't delete anything

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Posted (edited)

Ten. Ten f'n emails from the Harris Walz campaign soliciting donations sitting in my inbox since yesterday morning. I guess they wanted me to unsubscribe. You got my vote, but holy shit, stop the madness. 

Edited by Blotto
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Posted
39 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Okay then. Lay out your argument. 

i think it has something to do with billy gibbons not being able to replicate prince's guitar intro to "when doves cry."

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