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2024 Presidential Election Thread


bolverk

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12 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

If Trump takes back Georgia and Arizona, he still loses without flipping MI, PA, or WI. I just have a hard time seeing everything breaking for him given the current state of the GOP in those states. 

Same.  But I don't see him winning AZ.  Those McCain Republicans detest him.  They don't mind Biden.  

It's funny, because Emerson is pushing out all these polls showing Senate Dems doing really well but the same samples somehow have Trump beating Biden as well.  This country doesn't ticket split like that anymore outside of "big personal brands" like Brown, Tester, Manchin, Collins.  You can pretty much guarantee that if Baldwin (WI), Slotkin (MI), Casey (PA), Rosen (NV) and Gallego (AZ) win their states, Biden won them as well.  

The only potential ticket splitting would be NC Gov - I can 100% see Stein beating Robinson and Trump beating Biden and MT/OH Senate. 

Edited by Js1
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State govt GOP control of swing states:

PA: Senate

WI: House, Senate, Supreme Court

MI: Supreme Court

GA: House, Senate, Governor, Supreme Court

AZ: House, Senate, Supreme Court

NV: Governor 

 

Georgia is the only swing state where the GOP controls all 4, and Kemp hates Trump, so it’s unlikely shenanigans go easy for them even there.

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16 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

State govt GOP control of swing states:

PA: Senate

WI: House, Senate, Supreme Court

MI: Supreme Court

GA: House, Senate, Governor, Supreme Court

AZ: House, Senate, Supreme Court

NV: Governor 

 

Georgia is the only swing state where the GOP controls all 4, and Kemp hates Trump, so it’s unlikely shenanigans go easy for them even there.

Not sure this is accurate. SCOWI for example is no longer under GOP

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2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Not sure this is accurate. SCOWI for example is no longer under GOP

Yeah that one that is wrong. Michigan Supreme Court is also 4-3 Dem and one of the GOP is not running this year 

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10 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Not sure this is accurate. SCOWI for example is no longer under GOP

 

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah that one that is wrong. Michigan Supreme Court is also 4-3 Dem and one of the GOP is not running this year 

I was taking all that from ballotpedia.  Looks like their SC data is wonky.

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Just now, Snake Diggity said:

 

I was taking all that from ballotpedia.  Looks like their SC data is wonky.

Dems flipped SCOWI in 2023. It was a big deal. Led to fair maps for the state legislature and a post-2024 challenge to the congressional maps. SCOMI flipped in 2020 

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With so many Trump admin officials coming out to say they won’t vote for him, or telling a story from behind the scenes at the Trump WH, I hope Biden can convince them to be filmed for political ads. Biden is never going to convince some GOPers  to vote for him, but a certain percent might be convinced to stay home on Election Day.

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11 hours ago, LurkingHorn said:

Polling issues causing some angst and a potential Biden health scare aside, am I the only one who feels like this isn't going to be particularly close? I don't think Trump can count on all of these people switching to him in the General. Meanwhile, he's out of money and the RNC is out of money to really do much about it. 

The one thing that could upset the apple cart is as black swan event, like a huge terror attack coordinated by people who had come across the border.

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21 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

gonna make trump’s broke ass defend fl and tx. lol. 

 

20 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

 

I guess it sort of makes sense.  Both states are booming, economically, under Biden.

It makes sense because of the former point. Biden has such a ridiculous cash advantage that deploying resources in FL/TX/NC (I was big on Democrats in NC in 2020 and I want to be again with migration trends but the polls look terrible for Biden) and making Trump play defense has as much or more utility as swamping the six Biden swing states *that* much more. Diminishing returns and all that. Not to mention he has so much cash that it's not really a trade off.

12 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Negative Nancy here but I hope that he doesn’t pull a Hillary and try to expand the map before locking up 270 EVs. 

Expanding the map is probably the best way to get to 270 EVs. You make Trump play defense and improve your chances in the swing states you won last time. And if you happen to win TX or FL, election is over.

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dems flipped SCOWI in 2023. It was a big deal. Led to fair maps for the state legislature and a post-2024 challenge to the congressional maps. SCOMI flipped in 2020 

Yeah I'm pretty optimistic on WI. Democratic base has been consistently engaged there over the past four years and now they have an opportunity to reset the landscape in the state legislature. I cannot fathom an enthusiasm gap with the base there, and we know how the suburbs feel about Trump.

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dems flipped SCOWI in 2023. It was a big deal. Led to fair maps for the state legislature and a post-2024 challenge to the congressional maps. SCOMI flipped in 2020 

The last time Wisconsin elected a Legislature under fair maps was either 2008 or 2010. 

One big reason why the SCOWI went Democrat last year is because all the students that were in elementary school during the open teacher rebellion of 2011 watched their teachers get boatraced in the years since.

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7 hours ago, 'stache said:

 

The presidency has become way more of a powerful position (both in reality and by perception) than it used to be, and voters act differently in presidential elections. I too have zero trust that traditionally republican voters who say they hate trump will stay home or vote against him. First, the fact that they are still staunchly republican means they have some love of cruelty and dislike for "others" and I feel are overstating their dislike of trump. The numbers are still astonishing to me that a vile hateful incompetent criminal of a human is the overwhelming choice of a major political party. That alone is alarming.

But more importantly, I just see way too many wedge issues prevail on the right. These people, even if they truly do not like trump, will almost certainly fall for the wedge issue of the day. Trump may be a bad guy, but the other side are socialists/baby killers/queer lovers/facists (because covid restrictions)/traitors (because of all these Mexicans). It's gonna happen. I also don't trust that the youths will save us. It was supposed to start happening at least a decade ago and yet we got the most despicable person ever elected (even missteps by Clinton should not have made it even close). And we're already seeing that young liberals are demanding idealogical purity (Gaza being a massive hotbutton for them), and others (males in particular) are falling for the incel "fuck everyone" mindset at way too high a clip. 

I do still think that Biden will win, but it won't be by much more than 2020, and we're guaranteed that the orange baby will act out again as will his worshipers. 

there's a large group of americans who have identified as (r) for a long time, probably because their parents were, and have been so turned off by politics (ironically, because of people like trump), that they are purposely disinterested and disengaged.  so when they vote (r), they don't even have to hold their nose.  they purposely don't follow it, they don't talk politics with their friends, they distract themselves with family, kids, reality tv, whatever, and haven't paid attention in 10-15+ years.

there's no possible way 75mm people know what trump is all about and are like, cool, i'll pick him.  no fucking way.

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12 hours ago, LurkingHorn said:

Polling issues causing some angst and a potential Biden health scare aside, am I the only one who feels like this isn't going to be particularly close? I don't think Trump can count on all of these people switching to him in the General. Meanwhile, he's out of money and the RNC is out of money to really do much about it. 

I feel the same way.  At this point, we just need the calendar to get shorter / election get closer without anything crazy happening that is negative for the dems. 

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Trump really needs Truth Social to succeed, but it also can’t survive without him.

But as the RNC and his campaign hurt for money more and more, I wonder if he’ll get back on Twitter to get more of a reach for no cost (other than Truth Social’s value).

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

there's no possible way 75mm people know what trump is all about and are like, cool, i'll pick him.  no fucking way.

I’m pretty sure it is possible my dude. A ton of people in this country are fucking awful people. I didn’t believe it until 2020 when he GAINED votes. 

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6 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

poll after poll say its going to be close at best. we live in a world where the very worst person on planet earth would start with 150 EVs just because of the D and R.  this cheering circle we have here is a little too effective for our own good.

Polls are a lot like the debates—unnecessary and out of date considering how society has progressed with technology.

The problem is these polls give way for trump to scream “FRAUD” if he loses because 40% if our country can’t understand why most polls are flawed considering how they are conducted. 

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1 hour ago, Underdog said:

One person he can’t free is Ashli Babbitt, aka Dead Traitor! 

Ashli can still be resurrected if Mike Pence has the courage to pray right.  And hide the eggs

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9 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

there's a large group of americans who have identified as (r) for a long time, probably because their parents were, and have been so turned off by politics (ironically, because of people like trump), that they are purposely disinterested and disengaged.  so when they vote (r), they don't even have to hold their nose.  they purposely don't follow it, they don't talk politics with their friends, they distract themselves with family, kids, reality tv, whatever, and haven't paid attention in 10-15+ years.

there's no possible way 75mm people know what trump is all about and are like, cool, i'll pick him.  no fucking way.

Trump got like 75MM votes in 2020 and probably isn't going to shed a ton of support.

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18 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I think of it as a reverse Mao policy. (In China, the government says that the praise to criticism ratio for Mao should be 70:30). I think Reagan was 70 percent demon (terrible on the environment, destroyed the mental health system, deregulated and cut taxes to favor the wealthy, was probably the worst president ever for unions and labor, appointed Scalia, Nancy's "Just Say No" bullshit and the "war on drugs", he destabilized Central America, and he was behind the Iran-Contra scandal, he also supported a federal ban on abortion), 30 percent decent (immigration amnesty, seemed to be a public servant rather than a grifter).

Honestly 30:70 is the wrong ratio for Reagan. Probably closer to 10:90, if that.

Point of order, the destruction of the mental health system, which mostly occurred at the state level, was well underway long before Reagan. And it is as much the fault of civil libertarians, ie libruls, as fiscal conservatives. 

He gets a bad rap on that. 

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From this morning's Politico newsletter email.  Lots of this are probably known to many of you, but seeing it all lined up all neat and tidy...well, it just warms your heart on this fine March morning:

 

Spoiler

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART I — The big takeaway from last night’s FEC deadline? JOE BIDEN has a major fundraising advantage over DONALD TRUMP.

In February:

  • Biden’s campaign raised $21.3 million. Cash on hand: $71 million.
  • Trump’s campaign raised $10.9 million. Cash on hand: $33.5 million.
  • The Democratic National Committee raised $16.6 million. Cash on hand: $26.5 million.
  • The Republican National Committee raised $10.7 million. Cash on hand: $11.3 million.

For those of you who aren’t math majors, the combined sums of Biden and the DNC more than doubled the combined sums of Trump and the RNC. (Those totals don’t include either side’s joint fundraising committees or super PACs.) More from Elena Schneider, Jessica Piper And Zach Montellaro

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART II — Trump’s leadership PAC, Save America, spent another $5.6 million on legal expenses in February, and was “kept afloat” by a $5 million refund from MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC, Jessica Piper, Natalie Allison and Zach Montellaro write. MAGA Inc. “has now sent more than $50 million to Save America since last year to help cover Trump’s many legal costs,” and there are serious doubts about how much longer it can afford to do that.

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART III — The RNC raised $10.6 million last month, a total that is “unlikely to help the party cut into Democrats’ massive fundraising advantage heading into the general election campaign,” our colleagues Natalie Allison and Jessica Piper report. (It has $11.3 million cash on hand — less than the $11.5 million NIKKI HALEY’s now-defunct campaign had in the bank at the end of February.)

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART IV — “As Donald Trump faces dwindling options to pay off a massive fine imposed as a result of losing a fraud case in New York, financial experts say filing for bankruptcy would provide one clear way out of his financial jam. But Trump is not considering that approach, partially out of concern that it could damage his campaign,” WaPo’s Jonathan O'Connell and Josh Dawsey report.

 

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3 hours ago, Pancho said:

Polls are a lot like the debates—unnecessary and out of date considering how society has progressed with technology.

The problem is these polls give way for trump to scream “FRAUD” if he loses because 40% if our country can’t understand why most polls are flawed considering how they are conducted. 

Counterpoint--Trump pointed to how the polls all favored Hillary when he won, and how wrong and out of touch they were.  But yeah, he'll now use the polls to scream "FRAUD," because it's all he's got.    

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25 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Bullshit.  Right now we have a neighbor dealing with an adult daughter with tremendous mental difficulty and there is literally no where for her to go.  Specifically blaming Reagan may not be entirely right, but he and his ilk, and their cost cutting no government services platform are to blame for this sort of thing.  He was the ring leader of this movement that found power and his doctrines have guided us to where we are today. Trickle down economics and tax cuts for the rich have a direct correlation with the suspension of government services, like mental health.  He doesn't get a bad rap, if anything he gets far more of a pass from most Americans.  Fuck him, and fuck that movement.  

Fuckin’ A right, man. ‘Reagan wasn’t as bad as he’s cracked up to be’ is never going to fly. No, he was much worse than the mythology would have you believe. I know, I fell for the illusion at the time. But the results are in. Fuck him and fuck Grover Norquist for perpetuating the myth. 

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2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

From this morning's Politico newsletter email.  Lots of this are probably known to many of you, but seeing it all lined up all neat and tidy...well, it just warms your heart on this fine March morning:

 

  Hide contents

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART I — The big takeaway from last night’s FEC deadline? JOE BIDEN has a major fundraising advantage over DONALD TRUMP.

In February:

  • Biden’s campaign raised $21.3 million. Cash on hand: $71 million.
  • Trump’s campaign raised $10.9 million. Cash on hand: $33.5 million.
  • The Democratic National Committee raised $16.6 million. Cash on hand: $26.5 million.
  • The Republican National Committee raised $10.7 million. Cash on hand: $11.3 million.

For those of you who aren’t math majors, the combined sums of Biden and the DNC more than doubled the combined sums of Trump and the RNC. (Those totals don’t include either side’s joint fundraising committees or super PACs.) More from Elena Schneider, Jessica Piper And Zach Montellaro

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART II — Trump’s leadership PAC, Save America, spent another $5.6 million on legal expenses in February, and was “kept afloat” by a $5 million refund from MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC, Jessica Piper, Natalie Allison and Zach Montellaro write. MAGA Inc. “has now sent more than $50 million to Save America since last year to help cover Trump’s many legal costs,” and there are serious doubts about how much longer it can afford to do that.

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART III — The RNC raised $10.6 million last month, a total that is “unlikely to help the party cut into Democrats’ massive fundraising advantage heading into the general election campaign,” our colleagues Natalie Allison and Jessica Piper report. (It has $11.3 million cash on hand — less than the $11.5 million NIKKI HALEY’s now-defunct campaign had in the bank at the end of February.)

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART IV — “As Donald Trump faces dwindling options to pay off a massive fine imposed as a result of losing a fraud case in New York, financial experts say filing for bankruptcy would provide one clear way out of his financial jam. But Trump is not considering that approach, partially out of concern that it could damage his campaign,” WaPo’s Jonathan O'Connell and Josh Dawsey report.

 

He is so fucking stupid. He's literally said before, that declaring bankruptcy is smart. And he wasn't wrong. He's literally used the defense before of his bankruptcies being smart. He could do it again now, and point out it was necessary becuase of the "political witch-hunt" and blah blah blah, and all his voters would believe him. They'd sympathize with him. Fuck, they'd love him more. But he won't do it because of his fucking ego. 

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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

He is so fucking stupid. He's literally said before, that declaring bankruptcy is smart. And he wasn't wrong. He's literally used the defence before of his bankruptcies being smart. He could do it again now, and point out it was necessary becuase of the "political witch-hunt" and blah blah blah, and all his voters would believe him. They'd sympathize with him. Fuck, they'd love him more. But he won't do it because of his fucking ego. 

this stuff has made me rethink his post-election behavior.  before i was more focused on him wanting to hold on to power.  now the portion attributable to just having to avoid acknowledging he took an L on something seems bigger.  

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6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

this stuff has made me rethink his post-election behavior.  before i was more focused on him wanting to hold on to power.  now the portion attributable to just having to avoid acknowledging he took an L on something seems bigger.  

I’d say one big clue that it’s about not being able to accept defeat is the idea that he’s floated that he probably actually won all 50 states if all the rigging could be accurately accounted for.  It’s not enough for him to have won the overall election- he is compelled to need to have won each state election. 

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2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Right now we have a neighbor dealing with an adult daughter with tremendous mental difficulty and there is literally no where for her to go. 

I’ve been through this, except with a parent, and I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. 

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