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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Click the link, douche. 

Fake news.

The Tax Policy Center, which your link references, based their opinion on Biden's March 2020 tax plan. 

They have since corrected their analysis to reflect the fact that Biden has now safe harbored income below $400k from an increased tax burden. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/updated-analysis-former-vice-president-bidens-tax-proposals

Guy Benson - the author of your tweet - is dead wrong. He should know better, but he's gotta get paid, I suppose.

Edited by washparkhorn
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Hey troll, you’re supposedly in the medical field, so I’m calling on your experience and wisdom here.
 
Please offer your thoughts on the specific impacts of the Trump healthcare plan. Please be sure to address how it will affect people with preexisting conditions, handling the currently uninsured, cost controls, and drug availability and pricing. I remind you, the entire description of the plan released to date is, and I quote directly from the president, “it’ll be great.”
 
Please explain the details of “it’ll be great,” and cite the basis for any specifics you attribute to it.
 
You are in the field, so surely you are better equipped than most of us to understand it - so, educate us.
Quoted to say once again, fuck off GRHorn. I'm disappointed that even when I have your drivel on mute you still pop up on occasion.
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8 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

biden has more money than he can spend, but we should spend it all anyway.  make trumpers scared to turn on the fucking tv.

Joe has enough money to shovel it into places he has no chance of winning, like Alaska and Montana.  If he gets more votes there, so does the Dem/Indy Senate candidates who have legit shots. 

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6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Joe has enough money to shovel it into places he has no chance of winning, like Alaska and Montana.  If he gets more votes there, so does the Dem/Indy Senate candidates who have legit shots. 

I think he is at the point of literally shoveling the money. 

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I still think it'll be a nail biter.  While I'm pleased with some of the neighborhood feedback I am getting on Trump hate, I am also getting a quiet, low key aggyish Trumpy vibe form some of the younger couples in the neighborhood. 

I was chatting with a local 8 year old and asked him who he was going to vote for, and he said "Ummmm I I think.....Donald Twump".  "Well that's kind of an aggy thing to do!" I relied. (His dad was a Corps guy/decorated veteran.)

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28 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

I still think it'll be a nail biter.  While I'm pleased with some of the neighborhood feedback I am getting on Trump hate, I am also getting a quiet, low key aggyish Trumpy vibe form some of the younger couples in the neighborhood. 

I was chatting with a local 8 year old and asked him who he was going to vote for, and he said "Ummmm I I think.....Donald Twump".  "Well that's kind of an aggy thing to do!" I relied. (His dad was a Corps guy/decorated veteran.)

Fuck that kid. 

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Check this out. I've been casually batting this around in my head and we've talked about it some here but I decided to put something on the screen to get a real look at it. 

I can't get it out of my head how badly some of the individual state polls missed last time around and there's a "worst case scenario" that I can't kick. So I put some "what if 2016 happens again" numbers together.

This shows who would win battleground states based on current polling vs. each state's actual election results and how they skewed vs. the RCP polling average on election day. Black line represents the 2016 poll miss, the bars are Biden's current poll lead. What we want to see is the bar go past the line. So for example in PA Biden's lead is 5.7%, but RCP missed by 2.6% last time. If the polls missed the same way, Biden would still win by 3.1%, which is my "adjusted" number.

7784972_polladjustment.JPG.63de006bfe390be39819fae8e6dd120f.JPG

 

A few things stand out:

- AZ, MI, PA all look very safe and pretty well out of reach of polling error.
- Arizona is actually the most solid swing state out there in this analysis. It's more likely to go Biden than Wisconsin is IMO. Arizona could end up being our surprise insurance policy against the Rust Belt.
- Look at how crazy Wisconsin is. Biden is up by 6.3% but Trump outperformed polls by a huge 7.2% last time. I don't trust Wisconsin at all.
- Despite him having small polling leads, Biden is not probably not going to win Ohio or Iowa unless this is an absolute best-case scenario wipeout election.

This eased my nerves a little. Even if Wisconsin does weird white people things, and even if you call GA/FL "too close to call", the PA/MI/AZ combo gets Biden there:

map3.JPG.b2612f8793f6b2b56565b0135d21a5b6.JPG

 

Obviously not as much of a statement as you'd like it to be, and would spark endless lawsuits, but it puts Biden in office. And if Florida and one or both of GA/NC go blue too, it's a pretty resounding win. 

The only chance Trump has to win is if there's some sort of hidden groundswell of newly-politically-active Trump voters that none of the pollsters or pundits are picking up (possible), and there is no corresponding bump for team blue (seems almost impossible). 

Edited by BradInATX
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6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Check this out. I've been casually batting this around in my head and we've talked about it some here but I decided to put something on the screen to get a real look at it. 

I can't get it out of my head how badly some of the individual state polls missed last time around and there's a "worst case scenario" that I can't kick. So I put some "what if 2016 happens again" numbers together.

This shows who would win battleground states based on current polling vs. each state's actual election results and how they skewed vs. the RCP polling average on election day. Black line represents the 2016 poll miss, the bars are Biden's current poll lead. What we want to see is the bar go past the line. So for example in PA Biden's lead is 5.7%, but RCP missed by 2.6% last time. If the polls missed the same way, Biden would still win by 3.1%, which is my "adjusted" number.

7784972_polladjustment.JPG.63de006bfe390be39819fae8e6dd120f.JPG

 

A few things stand out:
- Arizona is actually the most solid swing state out there in this analysis. It's more likely to go Biden than Wisconsin is IMO.
- Look at how crazy Wisconsin is. Biden is up by 6.3% but Trump outperformed polls by a huge 7.2% last time. I don't trust Wisconsin at all.

This eased my nerves a little. Even if Wisconsin does weird white people things, and even if you call GA/FL "too close to call", the PA/MI/AZ combo gets Biden there:

map3.JPG.b2612f8793f6b2b56565b0135d21a5b6.JPG

 

Obviously not as much of a statement as you'd like it to be, and would spark endless lawsuits, but it puts Biden in office. And if Florida and one or both of GA/NC go blue too, it's a pretty resounding win. 

The only chance Trump has to win is if there's some sort of hidden groundswell of newly-politically-active Trump voters that none of the pollsters or pundits are picking up (possible), and there is no corresponding bump for team blue (seems almost impossible). 

I hate that a close election is still a plausible scenario.  I think PA, MI, and MN are pretty safely blue.  But that means Biden has to get one more “close” state.  I do not trust WI, AZ, NC, or FL.  Luckily I do think the odds are that Biden gets at least one, which gets him to 270.  Unfortunately anything less than 320 EV almost certainly means Trump contests the results which would mean we enter the most dangerous period in US history since the Civil War.

 

Its probably more likely that Biden gets 400 EV than Trump gets 270.  But sadly Biden getting 270-320 means the election result is a toss-up.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

I hate that a close election is still a plausible scenario.  I think PA, MI, and MN are pretty safely blue.  But that means Biden has to get one more “close” state.  I do not trust WI, AZ, NC, or FL.  Luckily I do think the odds are that Biden gets at least one, which gets him to 270.  Unfortunately anything less than 320 EV almost certainly means Trump contests the results which would mean we enter the most dangerous period in US history since the Civil War.

Yeah, and once again we find ourselves with a lot of importance on Florida, in terms of getting a big enough win to avoid hijinks. And we all know what happens when we trust Florida.

Keep in mind that I have no idea how the polling outfits have changed their weightings and likely-voter models to account for Trump and their 2016 misses. They might have made adjustments. Some probably have. If they have, then this map is a worst-case scenario, which still has the good guys winning.

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Correct and this is why I'm thrilled at the in-person early voting numbers. People need to vote in person so the results are known faster and decisively. Mail in ballots are going to be challenged. Don't give him the luxury of doing that. Mask up and vote in person. 

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@BradInATX regarding Wisconsin: 

Hillary was actually ahead by "more" than Biden is at this time (6.7 to 6.3) but her raw share in the RCP average was only 44.7% while Biden is at 49.9%. Hillary's final RCP average was 46.8% and she got 46.5% of the vote, so the pollsters nailed it when it came to her support. Where they were wrong was Trump - late decides and third party switchers brought him from 40.3% to 47.2%. 

There's no question Biden will end up out-performing Hillary. The question I have is can Trump out-perform his 2016 vote share? If not then he's likely to lose Wisconsin.

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I have voted for a lot of Republicans in a lot of elections, even after I had my first daughter.  I will be voting for several Republican candidates next week.  

But I just do not understand how any of you Surly dads who have daughters could possibly entertain voting for Trump for President.  What an absolutely spineless move.  

We're all modern dads navigating the brave new world, trying to be there for our children.  I don't know what it's like to have a son.  But if you have a young daughter (I have two), I simply do cannot wrap my head how you could support this human filth. 

What Trump, and his supporters, attempted to normalize with regard to how young women are treated will haunt us for decades.  Be a dad they don't have to live in shame of. 

Edited by Lobo
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Just now, The Dog said:

@BradInATX regarding Wisconsin: 

Hillary was actually ahead by "more" than Biden is at this time (6.7 to 6.3) but her raw share in the RCP average was only 44.7% while Biden is at 49.9%. Hillary's final RCP average was 46.8% and she got 46.5% of the vote, so the pollsters nailed it when it came to her support. Where they were wrong was Trump - late decides and third party switchers brought him from 40.3% to 47.2%. 

There's no question Biden will end up out-performing Hillary. The question I have is can Trump out-perform his 2016 vote share? If not then he's likely to lose Wisconsin.

Great point here too. You have to assume that the lower number of undecideds should flatten out some of the end results vs. polling. 

The main takeaway from for me was simply "if we get disastrous numbers of unexpected Trump votes in the same states like we did in 2016, Biden is still going to win". I wouldn't take it to be too predictive. I have Biden winning Wisconsin in my prediction on the electoral map thread. But I found some of the other takeaways more interesting, like AZ being more stable/predictable at this point than WI. If you put a gun to my head and said I had to pick WI or AZ for Biden to win, I'm going AZ.

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1 minute ago, Lobo said:

I have voted for a lot of Republicans in a lot of elections, even after I had my first daughter.  I will be voting for several Republican candidates next week.  

But I just do not understand how any of you Surly dads who have daughters could possibly entertain voting for Trump for President.  What an absolutely spineless move.  

We're all modern dads navigating the brave new world, trying to be there for our children.  I don't know what it's like to have a son.  But if you have a young daughter (I have two), I simply do cannot wrap my head how you could support this human filth. 

What Trump, and his supporters, attempted to normalize with regard to how young women are treated will haunt us for decades.  Be a dad they don't have to live in shame of. 

Yep.  Hard to believe there are people out there who have no bar for character that must be cleared before even considering policy views.  A lot of people who know me might be shocked to learn I will vote democrat now, but my answer to them is that the only 2 people in this world I really care about AT ALL are 1/4 asian preschool aged girls.  If you care about women or minorities at all, there is simply no way to justify a Trump vote.

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1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

Yep.  Hard to believe there are people out there who have no bar for character that must be cleared before even considering policy views.  A lot of people who know me might be shocked to learn I will vote democrat now, but my answer to them is that the only 2 people in this world I really care about AT ALL are 1/4 asian preschool aged girls.  If you care about women or minorities at all, there is simply no way to justify a Trump vote.

pics?

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Check this out. I've been casually batting this around in my head and we've talked about it some here but I decided to put something on the screen to get a real look at it. 

I can't get it out of my head how badly some of the individual state polls missed last time around and there's a "worst case scenario" that I can't kick. So I put some "what if 2016 happens again" numbers together.

This shows who would win battleground states based on current polling vs. each state's actual election results and how they skewed vs. the RCP polling average on election day. Black line represents the 2016 poll miss, the bars are Biden's current poll lead. What we want to see is the bar go past the line. So for example in PA Biden's lead is 5.7%, but RCP missed by 2.6% last time. If the polls missed the same way, Biden would still win by 3.1%, which is my "adjusted" number.

7784972_polladjustment.JPG.63de006bfe390be39819fae8e6dd120f.JPG

 

A few things stand out:

- AZ, MI, PA all look very safe and pretty well out of reach of polling error.

- Arizona is actually the most solid swing state out there in this analysis. It's more likely to go Biden than Wisconsin is IMO. Arizona could end up being our surprise insurance policy against the Rust Belt.

- Look at how crazy Wisconsin is. Biden is up by 6.3% but Trump outperformed polls by a huge 7.2% last time. I don't trust Wisconsin at all.

- Despite him having small polling leads, Biden is not probably not going to win Ohio or Iowa unless this is an absolute best-case scenario wipeout election.

This eased my nerves a little. Even if Wisconsin does weird white people things, and even if you call GA/FL "too close to call", the PA/MI/AZ combo gets Biden there:

map3.JPG.b2612f8793f6b2b56565b0135d21a5b6.JPG

 

Obviously not as much of a statement as you'd like it to be, and would spark endless lawsuits, but it puts Biden in office. And if Florida and one or both of GA/NC go blue too, it's a pretty resounding win. 

The only chance Trump has to win is if there's some sort of hidden groundswell of newly-politically-active Trump voters that none of the pollsters or pundits are picking up (possible), and there is no corresponding bump for team blue (seems almost impossible). 

You're worrying a little too much about WI.

 

Trump got fewer votes in WI than Romney did in 2012. It was not an explosion of Trump support, ala Pennsylvania.

 

Wisconsin, more than anywhere, is an example of Democrats just not showing up for Hillary, be it by staying home (turnout was down from 2012 not just in terms of percentage, but about 90k raw votes, 4x Trump's margin of victory) or voting third party (~five percent of votes cast). Democrats in the state have proven that is definitely not happening in 2020 several times since then.

 

It isn't a stone cold lock in 2020, but Trump simply does not have the votes if everyone shows up. Indications are that everyone is showing up.

 

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

You absolutely 100% should not do that.  The party is 100% in lockstep loyalty as a cult.  Any vote for a GOP candidate rewards that behavior.

One of my dearest friends in the world is a GOP judge.  If I lived in her district, I would vote against her.  It's that important.  The behavior of a party that has fed and nurtured this horror MUST be punished, across the board.

 Sorry, but I'm voting for folks like Becky Bray for County Commissioner. Raul Vargas for Sheriff.  Jeff Rose for Court of Appeals (even though he's gonna step down shortly since he didn't get tapped for Supreme Court of TX), Lani Popp, and a few others for Texas Supreme Court.  By my pre-printed ballot, I am voting for Biden and 3 other Democrats, 3 Libertarians (my usual go-to, but I think we all know where's just not as many on the ballot this time around), against the 3 props on my ballot, couple of school board choices, and what everybody is waiting on pins and needles to hear about---Lobo endorses for Edwards Aquifer Conservation Precinct #4---Bob Larsen. 

I have to stay in the party's good graces.  So that it's made even more sweet when we rise up against Dan Patrick in 2022.  the amount of money that's been bundled already to remove him from public office in perpetuity and put him back where he belongs---sucking off glory hole customers at truck stops for new radio headphones...would boggle your mind.  I can't believe how many enemies he's made already.  

Anyway, back to Biden and Trump.  Go Biden.  

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17 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I have voted for a lot of Republicans in a lot of elections, even after I had my first daughter.  I will be voting for several Republican candidates next week.  

But I just do not understand how any of you Surly dads who have daughters could possibly entertain voting for Trump for President.  What an absolutely spineless move.  

We're all modern dads navigating the brave new world, trying to be there for our children.  I don't know what it's like to have a son.  But if you have a young daughter (I have two), I simply do cannot wrap my head how you could support this human filth. 

What Trump, and his supporters, attempted to normalize with regard to how young women are treated will haunt us for decades.  Be a dad they don't have to live in shame of. 

The bolded is a contradiction.  Square it for me.

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