Markets still falling like whoa

[jimmyjazz 45055]

I use stockcharts for my charting service . . . they've been offline all morning.  LULZ.

[Not a cat 5596]

Just did some tax loss harvesting- might as well make some lemonade out of this shit sandwich (isn't that how the saying goes?)

[LTtxfan 48688]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

No, we get some sort of bounce that may even be pretty big one then go back down.  These almost "flash crash" like lows in a lot of stocks today should be revisited then.

[UTPhil2006 3753]

3 hours ago, TexasGolf said:

We got 4% in July 2017. Would it be worth looking at a refi ??

PM sent

[Don Johnson 4722]

Not much is up today but Clorox and Campbell’s soup are. Ha. 

[tantric superman 4667]

[Francisco 2.0 31566]

Holy shit, Azar was trotted out to speak to the press at the White House and proclaim that the economy is strong.

The Secretary of Health and Human Services.  To talk about the economy.

 

[hornbri 1345]

22 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Just did some tax loss harvesting- might as well make some lemonade out of this shit sandwich (isn't that how the saying goes?)

I did some of that last week and might do some more now. I think you are right. 

[bernorange 8336]

5 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

[workswithseed 2012]

9 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Holy shit, Azar was trotted out to speak to the press at the White House and proclaim that the economy is strong.

The Secretary of Health and Human Services.  To talk about the economy.

 

Would you rather it be Trump. Seriously, this year is fucked. I just had to get into stocks. 

[52-80 18962]

10 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Holy shit, Azar was trotted out to speak to the press at the White House and proclaim that the economy is strong.

The Secretary of Health and Human Services.  To talk about the economy.

 

 

[Francisco 2.0 31566]

Just now, workswithseed said:

Would you rather it be Trump. Seriously, this year is fucked. I just had to get into stocks. 

Or, you know, someone associated with the economy.  I mean, I guess they are competent.  But do you realize how fucking stupid it is to have the HHS director discussing this?

It's like having Ben Carson discussing border issues.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6488]

4 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Or, you know, someone associated with the economy.  I mean, I guess they are competent.  But do you realize how fucking stupid it is to have the HHS director discussing this?

It's like having Ben Carson discussing border issues.

You mean like putting Rick Perry in charge of the Energy Department? And I could name like a hundred other appointments that are fucking stupid.  By the way I agree it is crazy to have the HHS director talking about the economy.  Just send Kudlow out there to tell everyone its great.

[Tailgate 2972]

27 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Not much is up today but Clorox and Campbell’s soup are. Ha. 

Walmart’s waiving at you!

[workswithseed 2012]

7 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Or, you know, someone associated with the economy.  I mean, I guess they are competent.  But do you realize how fucking stupid it is to have the HHS director discussing this?

It's like having Ben Carson discussing border issues.

Yeah, it's like Trump talking about Corona Virus instead the head of CDC. I guess in the end it's all SNAFU.

[Rip76 4871]

51 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Just did some tax loss harvesting- might as well make some lemonade out of this shit sandwich (isn't that how the saying goes?)

Could you explain this a bit?

[Storm the Field 5239]

16 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Walmart’s waiving at you!

WMT is up $12 THIS MONTH and only a few dollars shy of a 52 week high. Crazy.

[aggie08 20210]

46 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

PM sent

Just got offered 3.125% (current is 3.5%) on a 30-year refinance in San Diego. Thinking I'll wait another week?

[Tailgate 2972]

Just now, Storm the Field said:

WMT is up $12 THIS MONTH and only a few dollars shy of a 52 week high. Crazy.

It’s where I’ll be shopping for the next few years.

[aggie08 20210]

59 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, hard for me to envision a reality where the BEST CASE scenario isn't a few months of pretty steady decline.

Shit, at some point a suburban white kid is going to die (hopefully not mine), and people are going to lose their damn minds.

[Captainant 26861]

Worth considering how different 2008 was from today's shitshow. In 2008, the banking system itself was falling apart and there was no liquidity available until the fed stepped in to prime the pump. Today, we have a strong foundation to our economy (which didn't stop the fed from keeping rates LOW and other stimulus behaviors) but the markets themselves are depressed due to all of the uncertainty in the market from CV, oil price wars, and the (very easy to win) trade war. 

[sidis 9608]

18 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Could you explain this a bit?

reducing his tax liability by going ahead and realizing his losses.  just means he can't buy back the same thing for a month.  if it keeps going down, it is a win-win for him (over the long-term when we all die).

[Continental Op 3934]

54 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

 

[Not a cat 5596]

16 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Could you explain this a bit?

Sell your position at a loss and buy a similar fund.  This allows you to realize the loss for tax purposes but you stay in the market.  Note that you can't sell at a loss and buy into the same fund unless you wait 30 days (see wash sale rule) so that's why you buy a similar fund instead of the same fund.

In my case, I sold my vanguard small cap fund positions that were at a loss and bought vanguard extended market fund.  Still have small cap exposure, but I get to realize losses now and offset vs ordinary income up to $3000.

[Rip76 4871]

6 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Sell your position at a loss and buy a similar fund.  This allows you to realize the loss for tax purposes but you stay in the market.  Note that you can't sell at a loss and buy into the same fund unless you wait 30 days (see wash sale rule) so that's why you buy a similar fund instead of the same fund.

In my case, I sold my vanguard small cap fund positions that were at a loss and bought vanguard extended market fund.  Still have small cap exposure, but I get to realize losses now and offset vs ordinary income up to $3000.

These are funds through work, or personal funds?

[Not a cat 5596]

2 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

These are funds through work, or personal funds?

Vanguard funds in my personal taxable ( ie non-retirement account) which is the only place this strategy makes sense due to tax issues.

[Thetexashammer 1062]

2 hours ago, bernorange said:

Intellectually, most people know this can happen.  Emotionally, few people expect that it ever will happen.  It's been my experience that folks who try to talk honestly about risks and such are mostly dismissed or ridiculed.  A lot of peeps on this board still think I'm the crazy one.  But I know better.  I'm not crazy.  You are all crazy and soon will be trying to steal my magic bag.

 

Literally, I would tell people "well there really isn't any of the apocalypse scenrios that could happen. I mean, except for that virus thing." 

It's like after 9/11 everybody said "who could possibly have seen this coming" and some guy who writes fiction pipes up and says "Yeah, well, I wrote this book over here about this exact scenario." It was totally predictable. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

The reach of Surly is long and broad
 

 

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

What's the O/U on the DOW today, -2000?

[Captainant 26861]

Just now, hopkinsnhorns said:

What's the O/U on the DOW today, -2000?

We're already past that compared to previous close

 

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

I'm aware.  Still a chance it could recover a bit before EOB.

[Celery Man 20535]

Silver lining - if you're approaching retirement and heavily exposed in the market, it could still be that the longevity of your portfolio is ample for your adjusted life expectancy

[CooterBrown 17695]

2 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Just got offered 3.125% (current is 3.5%) on a 30-year refinance in San Diego. Thinking I'll wait another week?

I'd wait. We aren't close to the bottom.  If this keeps up for another month, it'll be 2%.

 

[LABEVO 928]

 

[Parliament 13979]

The reach of Surly is long and broad

So's my johnson.

[Girdwood 118]

5 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

 

[Wally Fairway 5465]

21 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

 

Today, down 5.64% is better than the market

[Tailgate 2972]

Looks like we got a down $2,000 close. Almost like it was scripted.

Almost closed down 2020....getting creepier.

Edited March 9, 2020 by Tailgate

[Beau Vine 53625]

I think that the biggest story is that the yield on 30-year Treasuries is < 1%.

That's fucking crazy!

[UTPhil2006 3753]

9 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I think that the biggest story is that the yield on 30-year Treasuries is < 1%.

That's fucking crazy!

.49 at close.  Was at .39 at one point around 9am

[Thetexashammer 1062]

Just now, Beau Vine said:

I think that the biggest story is that the yield on 30-year Treasuries is < 1%.

That's fucking crazy!

It's worse than that. I can't look at the prices, but junk bonds were already in bubble territory. Corporates are likely just as inflated, including many that will simply not pay their principal back at all. 

When the recession finally hits, all hell is gonna break loose. I mean, at some point, the magic bubble blowing Fed machine just stops working, cash flows just dry up. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

If you’re not close to retiring, but have some good coin in the market, just stay the course for the long run? Pull all out and load up a bunker, this is the apocalypse?

[Beau Vine 53625]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If you’re not close to retiring, but have some good coin in the market, just stay the course for the long run? Pull all out and load up a bunker, this is the apocalypse?

Absolutely.  The big problem with pulling out is knowing when to get back in.

[jimmyjazz 45055]

39 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

.49 at close.  Was at .39 at one point around 9am

That's the 10-year, right?

[SydneyCarton 47092]

4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If you’re not close to retiring, but have some good coin in the market, just stay the course for the long run? Pull all out and load up a bunker, this is the apocalypse?

That's my plan. Barring some blue chips going out of business, I think the plan is to get close-ish to the bottom as best you can get, and use any cash reserves you have to buy whatever you can that makes sense. I'll probably stockpile as much cash as I can in the next few months as well to pump back into the market while things are depressed.

Good thing I just committed to like 10k worth of home improvements early last week!

[Beau Vine 53625]

8 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

It's worse than that. I can't look at the prices, but junk bonds were already in bubble territory.

I see some CCC funds that are yielding 11-12%, but what is this High Yield 100 that's yielding only 5.7%?  What''s the rating on that thing?

[Trey3216 15298]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's the 10-year, right?

Yep

[Anastasis 23191]

5 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Absolutely.  The big problem with pulling out is knowing when to get back in.

[Captainant 26861]

13 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

When the recession finally hits, all hell is gonna break loose. I mean, at some point, the magic bubble blowing Fed machine just stops working, cash flows just dry up. 

it's almost like we've been expending our stimulus capacity like fucking crazy since 2017 to keep the music going and now that we actually need economic stimulus, the well is dry.

But hey, at least your 401k's are doing well right?

[0xdeadbeef 1614]

The last week of Feb through March 2nd, I completely withdrew from the market, which means I sat out the roller coaster ride last week.    I'm happy about that, BUT...

I have no plan on when to jump back in.  I wouldn't recognize a bottom if it sat on me. I'm usual a buy and hold kinda guy.   I know the coronavirus is going to get much worse in the real world, and I know earnings reports for most companies are going to suck.  So I assume that this downturn is going to get worse and last for 6 months or more...but with the Feds pumping money, and if the Saudi and Russians get on the same page, and if people adjust to the new corona-reality,  could this thing stabilize and climb sooner?  I have no clue. I just worry about getting back in when the dow has already climbed above where I stepped out.