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Posted
On 9/24/2024 at 4:20 PM, bolverk said:

I’m not really into voting this year,” said Michelle Morris, 66, a resident of the Fifth Ward. She said she had heard of Mr. Allred, describing him as “pretty honest and pretty decent,” but said she remained frustrated by other Democrats who she felt had not followed through on their promises.

This is why Texas is not already blue

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

This is why Texas is not already blue

Some Texas Democrats need to be given a strong reason to vote. And it's not really that big of a deal to vote. Yes, you need an ID which honesty most people should have anyway. Then you need to find an hour during early voting. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

This is why Texas is not already blue

More generally, this shows why Dems everywhere struggle despite a clearly superior platform for a majority of voters. People who could even consider voting Dem want something done, their Pub-leaning counterparts just want liberal tears and/or simply fear something non-sensical.

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Posted
1 hour ago, The Dog said:

this is where a GOTV/ground game comes into play. you call these people and get them off their asses to the polls.

You get arrested for doing that in blue districts. 

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Posted
Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

You get arrested for doing that in blue districts. 

You get arrested for doing it anywhere in the state:

Quote

87-year-old LULAC volunteer said AG Ken Paxton sent 9 officers to raid her home

Lidia Martinez has been a LULAC member for over 35 years and works to expand voter registration among seniors and veterans in South Texas, CBS News reported.

And remember, every single person who votes GQP in this state -- EVERY.  FUCKING.  ONE OF THEM. -- is not just okay with that, but wants MORE of it. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

Reminds me of an article I read where a guy in El Paso said he voted once, for a democrat, and "nothing changed."  So obviously never vote again, I guess? WTF 

These are the people in the UK who already hate Labour because they haven’t undone a decade plus of Tory rule in 3 months. 

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Posted
4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Pathetic that Cruz can only run on stopping "boys in girl sports." 

Just saw this ad for the first time while watching my recording of the Miss St game. Holy shit. It’s an argument a five year old would make. 
 

“Boys in girl’s bathrooms!  Ewwww!!!!”

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Just saw this ad for the first time while watching my recording of the Miss St game. Holy shit. It’s an argument a five year old would make. 
 

“Boys in girl’s bathrooms!  Ewwww!!!!”

Have you seen the one where a large black man with an Allred jersey is standing over a small, white girl in a cheerleader skirt, laying motionless on the ground like he is about to sexually assault her.  Very classy.

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Posted

Allred keeps running a series of YouTube ads that play before my videos saying the "polls are tied" and showing a 41% to 41% graphic.  Not sure what poll he's using but the polls are not tied. This race will not even be as close as the Beto result in 2018.    

Posted
3 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Allred keeps running a series of YouTube ads that play before my videos saying the "polls are tied" and showing a 41% to 41% graphic.  Not sure what poll he's using but the polls are not tied. This race will not even be as close as the Beto result in 2018.    

I know this is gonna blow your mind, but from everything I've seen, yeah, inexplicably, it's a tie race right now

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I know this is gonna blow your mind, but from everything I've seen, yeah, inexplicably, it's a tie race right now

Link to a poll?

 

Posted
10 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I know this is gonna blow your mind, but from everything I've seen, yeah, inexplicably, it's a tie race right now

I don't know if I'd call it a tie, but more like Cruz is ahead but well within the margin of error.  And he's campaigning like it too. 

Turnout is going to decide this.  If the polls are even a point or two off with likely Harris voters (POC, young voters) and the suburbs continue to shift left,  Cruz is sweating. Anything that dampens GOP turnout in the next 33 days could turn this race fast. 

But on the flipside, a polling error in Trump's favor by a point or two probably saves Cruz from a close race. 

He will underperform Trump - and it depends on what Trump's margin is.  4-5 point Trump victory? Cruz likely eeks it out.  2-3 point Trump victory?  Oh boy, this may take a while to get a call on Election Night, since Harris County tends to deliver their results from the precincts to the vote centers via flying through Siberia. 

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Posted

Chronicle article (free link) about the changing demographics of Texas voters. The focus is on the increasing population along I-35 and Harris county in contrast of the relative lack of growth elsewhere.

i haven’t seen an election analyst flat out say that it’s 50-50 for statewide elections yet but the combination of Cruz and Trump this year creates a perfect storm of blue hatred. I’m convinced that if the Beto-Cruz race had been in 2020 instead of 2018, Beto would have won. In 2018 Cruz had Abbott running for governor but not Trump which helped Cruz.

Looking forward to seeing the early vote totals by county and state total in a couple of weeks. Hope I’m wrong but I don’t see how Allred retains the Beto vote and finds the 215k votes that Beto lost by. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

I believe that Kinzinger now lives in Houston. Unsure if it’s related to his wife (is she from here?), new job or if he sees a future in Texas politics.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Chronicle article (free link) about the changing demographics of Texas voters. The focus is on the increasing population along I-35 and Harris county in contrast of the relative lack of growth elsewhere.

i haven’t seen an election analyst flat out say that it’s 50-50 for statewide elections yet but the combination of Cruz and Trump this year creates a perfect storm of blue hatred. I’m convinced that if the Beto-Cruz race had been in 2020 instead of 2018, Beto would have won. In 2018 Cruz had Abbott running for governor but not Trump which helped Cruz.

Looking forward to seeing the early vote totals by county and state total in a couple of weeks. Hope I’m wrong but I don’t see how Allred retains the Beto vote and finds the 215k votes that Beto lost by. 

These two paragraphs are great news to read since we've historically had such low voter participation numbers:

The state’s voter registration rolls are expanding at a quicker pace than other fast-growing southern states like Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. And they're surpassing the state’s population growth, a sign that more than just new Texans are signing up to vote.

*****

While transplants from other states make up a good portion of that rise, voter advocacy groups say it is also a product of their work in places like Houston and San Antonio to find and register Texans who don't typically participate in elections. Also fueling the rise is the state's booming youth population coming of voting age. Many high schools have programs to help sign up new voters and people can also register when getting a driver's license.

 

Late edit to add that I had no idea Kinzinger had moved to Texas and, on top of that, had said he "would love to run against Ted Cruz."

Edited by bolverk
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Posted
8 minutes ago, Underdog said:

I invited Ted to the UK/UT game on 11/23, you’re welcome. 

Great. So now traitor Ted's gonna fuck up our shot at taking down the Limeys, too.

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Posted
5 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm under no illusions about how Texas votes, but it would be nice to only lose by 2 instead of 4-6 this time.

It would be nice if that happened and it panicked the Republicans into moving more towards the center instead of Hand Maid's Tale.

But we know that if they barely win, it'll be a sign they need to go into Taliban territory.

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Posted
2 hours ago, bolverk said:

Great. So now traitor Ted's gonna fuck up our shot at taking down the Limeys, too.

Christ, we'd have lost the Revolution if Ted had been there.  I think he was still in Canada fucking an otter at that point.  Guy is at least 600 years old.

Posted
30 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Christ, we'd have lost the Revolution if Ted had been there.  I think he was still in Canada fucking an otter at that point.  Guy is at least 600 years old.

Maybe it will snow or something and he goes to Cancun instead.

Posted
3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It would be nice if that happened and it panicked the Republicans into moving more towards the center instead of Hand Maid's Tale.

But we know that if they barely win, it'll be a sign they need to go into Taliban territory.

You’re right in that the Texas GOP could probably shift a few degrees to the left and they could corner 60% of the vote. The far far right ain’t going to vote for anyone else. Instead of a smart political shift they will try to take the vote away from large counties.

if they also fear that the governor or lt governor could be a Democrat, look for them to curb the powers of those offices. If Abbott thought a Dem would beat him, he would sign a law on the way out making the role ceremonial and add a term limit of 1.

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Posted (edited)
On 10/2/2024 at 10:10 PM, 0xdeadbeef said:

Allred keeps running a series of YouTube ads that play before my videos saying the "polls are tied" and showing a 41% to 41% graphic.  Not sure what poll he's using but the polls are not tied. This race will not even be as close as the Beto result in 2018.    

I mean there are few outlier polls that show it tied and even one where he has a slight lead, I have seen those polls and whenever I see one like that I know Collin is going to mention it. So it makes sense for him to act like those outliers are representative of most polling, but yeah a tad misleading.

I donated to Allred's campaign and would love for him to win and all but yeah. He will lose by 4 or 5 points sadly. If he only loses by 2 or 3 I will be very gruntled.

Still, got to keep chipping away at Republican power in Texas. Every percent counts.

Edited by Valmy77
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Posted
On 10/2/2024 at 10:10 PM, 0xdeadbeef said:

Allred keeps running a series of YouTube ads that play before my videos saying the "polls are tied" and showing a 41% to 41% graphic.  Not sure what poll he's using but the polls are not tied. This race will not even be as close as the Beto result in 2018.    

I've seen a similar ad from all kinds of Dems with the same charts, they're just trying to drum up support

Posted
On 10/3/2024 at 5:30 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You’re right in that the Texas GOP could probably shift a few degrees to the left and they could corner 60% of the vote. The far far right ain’t going to vote for anyone else. Instead of a smart political shift they will try to take the vote away from large counties.

if they also fear that the governor or lt governor could be a Democrat, look for them to curb the powers of those offices. If Abbott thought a Dem would beat him, he would sign a law on the way out making the role ceremonial and add a term limit of 1.

Republicans in Texas choose to believe because we are essentially a non voting state, their stronghold on statewide offices is an endorsement of their failed leadership. It is not. It is proof of Texas’ lack of voter engagement.

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Posted

Take 2018 results. 215k difference.

65k Cruz voters died from old age and covid.  150k difference.

50k suburban 2018 Cruz women vote Allred because of Roe overturned.  50k difference.

25k new black voters turn out for Allred.  25k difference.

50k Beto latinos stay home.  75k difference. lol.

25k anti-Trump voters turn out for Allred. 50k difference.

25k new gen z voters turn out for Allred.  25k difference.

 

Allred isn’t going to win.  But there’s a version of this where the shit is really really fucking close.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Maybe we could start an internet rumor that the company that makes the voting machines has infected them with a virus that turns you gay

or brown.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Fundraising emails are hilarious.

"Oh no, we're not going to hit our totally arbitrarily-picked goal. If Allred loses this will be the reason why."

Meanwhile in reality

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/10/08/texas-senate-colin-allred-ted-cruz-fundraising/

 

I was at a fundraiser for Allred on Monday.  I was chuckling with his handler about the magnitude of texts/emails I get from their campaign.  She laughed, but said, "that's because it works."  Evidently they're turning most of that directly into ad buys in these final days.  Let's see how it goes. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

I was at a fundraiser for Allred on Monday.  I was chuckling with his handler about the magnitude of texts/emails I get from their campaign.  She laughed, but said, "that's because it works."  Evidently they're turning most of that directly into ad buys in these final days.  Let's see how it goes. 

Yeah I mean I figure they write emails that way for a reason. I'm just not the guy it would work on, and it amuses me.

If his margin is in Beto territory that's an SEC quality loss.

Posted
8 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Take 2018 results. 215k difference.

65k Cruz voters died from old age and covid.  150k difference.

50k suburban 2018 Cruz women vote Allred because of Roe overturned.  50k difference.

25k new black voters turn out for Allred.  25k difference.

50k Beto latinos stay home.  75k difference. lol.

25k anti-Trump voters turn out for Allred. 50k difference.

25k new gen z voters turn out for Allred.  25k difference.

 

Allred isn’t going to win.  But there’s a version of this where the shit is really really fucking close.

Aggy math??



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