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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
2 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Pete sits down for a long and deep conversation with Ezra Klein covering all sorts of topics related to politics. Very interesting discussion between them, and it's amazing to see how Pete is well prepared and thoughtful in every reply. I really hope that one day he's in a race for a higher profile office, he's such an authentic and empathetic person, truly a rare breed in politics these days. 

 

 

So I listened to that yesterday because a Klein/Buttigieg combo is like crack to me, and Mayor Pete as always delivered.  
 

That said, I think his failure as a candidate (and to some degree as a surrogate) is because his communication style is exactly what someone of my education and social class wants to hear.  
 

He’s a little like Elizabeth Warren in that he proposes solutions that seem appealing because they are based on data, are constructive, etc, but is almost over polished for an electorate raised on reality TV.

I don’t think he or Ezra laughed or cracked a joke in the whole hour.  I get that they want to discuss serious topics, but if he dares to run again he’s got to try to entertain a little.  
 

It also made me think that maybe he’s a better Senate candidate than Presidential candidate.  He can be Gen X Daniel Patrick Moynihan.  

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Polls are piss.

They are useful for trends (was this poll tied a month ago or was there movement to Harris/Trump?) but honestly, after 2020 and 2022 - they fucking suck.  The polls told us it would be a Biden blowout and that the GOP was going to retake the Senate with 52+ seats and the House with 230+ seats.

I'm still going to post them to post them, but like, meh

We are a few weeks out from having a good amount of data on early voting and usually October is when we start hearing the district-level chatter.  

Edited by Js1
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Posted
5 minutes ago, South Austin said:

From my lawyer perspective, Hays County is much bluer because of all the down-ballot local races the Dems won in 2022, including a sweep of the judiciary. 

Sure, Biden won by a bit in Wilco.  But as far as I know the local officials are all still blood red.  And there are three incumbent Republican district judges up for re-election in November, and it doesn't look like any of them even drew a Democratic challenger.  

So I'd actually still call Wilco a red county, but one that actually held its nose and voted for Biden because Trump was awful enough to make them do it.  They may do it again, but I don't think the local offices are swinging blue any time soon.

When I voted in Wilco in 2022, there were a few races that had R unopposed. 

Posted
46 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Some movement

 

 

This is the first cycle since the Nelson/Hagel days in the 90's that I can remember R's pouring cash into attack ads in a Senate race. Some real fear there. The shame would be if Osborne pulls it off it takes out Fisher who is mostly a useless do nothing instead of Pete Ricketts out there spending a bunch of money to make things worse. 

Posted
36 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Also, polling increasingly is a measure of who is answering their cell phone, and pollsters then have to eyeball/back of the napkin that data into how the electorate might vote in November. 

Shit, I don't answer the phone half the time when I know who's calling.  I'm never answering numbers I don't recognize. I'm guessing mostly Boomers still answer unknown numbers?

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Posted
1 minute ago, Chewbacca said:

Shit, I don't answer the phone half the time when I know who's calling.  I'm never answering numbers I don't recognize. I'm guessing mostly Boomers still answer unknown numbers?

my parents still have a land line and answer it regardless if they know the number or not and then are shocked when someone tries to scam them.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Shit, I don't answer the phone half the time when I know who's calling.  I'm never answering numbers I don't recognize. I'm guessing mostly Boomers still answer unknown numbers?

One unexpected benefit of not changing my 512 cell number when I moved to the 970 is that I instantly know if it's a robocall/spam, because anyone I know from the 512 is already saved in my phone. 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Trump is not winning PA lol

I want to agree with you and I think you're right.  But I hate how close it seems (even if that's just pollsters fucking with us).

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Posted
1 minute ago, Chopper said:

One unexpected benefit of not changing my 512 cell number when I moved to the 970 is that I instantly know if it's a robocall/spam, because anyone I know from the 512 is already saved in my phone. 

Where are you in 970?  

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Posted
2 hours ago, heso said:

When I was in college I worked at a fedex print center for a few months. There was a lady that had worked there forever. Middle aged, less than 5’ tall, obese, chain smoker. She told me that she had recently had her 4th heart attack and her doctor told her she needed to quit smoking, but her mother smoked her whole life and was fine, and that was evidence enough for her that the doctor was wrong about her needing to quit. 

We had a scale for adding up the change in the registers. You just put your coins on it and it told you the value. It died and was replaced with a centrifugal change counter/sorter. The first night that I was closing up after we got the new counter I suddenly hear banging and screaming in the back. I run back and this lady is screaming that something is wrong with the change counter. I look at it and she had not only put her loose change in it, but also all of the rolled coins as well, which had obviously banged around in the machine, some flung out, some split open. I said Mary you’re just supposed to put the loose change in there, not the rolls. And her immediate reaction was that I was wrong because Sue told her to put in all of her change.

That was the first time I remember being dumbstruck by just how fucking stupid people can be, just completely unable to comprehend basic life and unable to accept someone challenging something they believe. 

That woman is probably closer to the average intelligence of our electorate than most assume. A massive segment of the voters in this country have absolutely zero capacity to make informed decisions about politics. 

I grew up in OK, so I probably had that moment a few years before you had.  I remember sitting there thinking, why should I respect adults, when so many of them are fucking stupid...

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Chopper said:

The US Secret Service...more pissed about this than I am about the hand-picked flunkies of Dotard nearly allowing him to get murdered.

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real clear politics report https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/09/25/secret_service_agent_accused_of_sexually_assaulting_campaign_aide.html

Constant portrayals of persons with badges and guns as being squeaky clean Boy Scouts doesn't help. They are all good guys with guns looking to kill the bad guys with guns. Remember the whoring story in S. America. Look at the willingness of some Secret Service to look the other way when Trump was inciting a riot. Look at the ex-SS guy close to Trump on that day trying to manipulate the SS. 

If the SS driver and agent in the limo on Jan 6 had not refused to drive Trump to the Capitol, I think that day would have ended/continued far differently. I don't see the Capitol Police bodily trying to keep Trump from entering. I don't know what the rotten GOP members of Congress would have done.

Those agents decided on their own to do the right thing. But where was the investigation of the chain of command there and the chain of command through the Pentagon? There needs to be a massive housecleaning and legislation to codify what's treason and what isnt.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ballot incoming from the UK, from a very pissed off gal in her early 20s. No Repubs got a vote.

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Cute in thinking that the USPS under Louis DeJoy will deliver a ballot to Austin. The address will be categorized as unreadable. :)

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Posted
1 hour ago, South Austin said:

From my lawyer perspective, Hays County is much bluer because of all the down-ballot local races the Dems won in 2022, including a sweep of the judiciary. 

Sure, Biden won by a bit in Wilco.  But as far as I know the local officials are all still blood red.  And there are three incumbent Republican district judges up for re-election in November, and it doesn't look like any of them even drew a Democratic challenger.  

So I'd actually still call Wilco a red county, but one that actually held its nose and voted for Biden because Trump was awful enough to make them do it.  They may do it again, but I don't think the local offices are swinging blue any time soon.

Relocated 2 blue votes from Wise County in 2020 (lol, good times) to WilCo. We're doing our best!

However, the parents moved from Montgomery County to Sun City to be closed to their grandkids. You can probably guess what their ballot will look like with no further information.

Posted
31 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Relocated 2 blue votes from Wise County in 2020 (lol, good times) to WilCo. We're doing our best!

However, the parents moved from Montgomery County to Sun City to be closed to their grandkids. You can probably guess what their ballot will look like with no further information.

I've contemplated implementing a "You want to see your grandson? I'm going to need to see your ballot before you mail it" campaign for my inlaws. 

But I realized they'd just pick the ballot. 

12 minutes ago, Jersey Man10 said:

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You motherfuckers are slipping. 

We all need that link. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

I do note that, while 2022 is not 2020, on this date in 2022, Fetterman was leading 49-45 in the polling average, and he ultimately won by 5.  But somehow the polling narrowed to a tie a month later when engagement was the highest and then Oz up 0.3 pre-Election Day. 

On this date in 2022, Kelly was up 6 points in the average, and ultimately won by 5.  BUT AGAIN - polling narrowed to a statistical tie on November 7 and Masters up 0.3 pre-Election Day.  

On this date in 2022, Laxalt was up 1.2 and OH LOOK, it dropped into a statistical tie a month later, with Laxalt up 2.7 pre-Election Day.  CCM won by 0.8

Kansas abortion referendum - it's 50/50!!!!! It passed by 18 points. 

It's just fucking clicks and engagement.  A tied or close race close to the election = more clicks, more eyeballs, more revenue, more TV time. 

I also have theories that since democrats vote earlier the answer to the polling question of who do you intend to vote for becomes moot, they just don't answer, this is just something I pulled out my ass of course but it kinda makes sense, I don't know how pollsters handle this scenario.

Posted

Susquehanna (PA)

Tie - 46-46
Casey +8

It's so funny that Xitter was hyping up this poll would show Trump up 1 and the other one from this morning would show Trump up 3.  Neither did. 

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Posted
19 hours ago, C-Man said:

Nightly walk update — some new Harris/Walz signs up in neighborhood. Harris households now outnumber the orange shitstain on our two mile route, 12-5. (I am under no illusion that we are flipping Texas.)

So in my neighborhood, which is pretty consistently 2/3rds Democratic, I've seen two Trump signs.  One is a handwritten sign of crazy.  The other is a campaign sign just next to the old beater pick-up truck in the driveway that is really very incongruous with the neighborhood.

A quick thought on that Trump sign, if you haven't seen those campaign signs.  It's blue, for one.  And that strikes me as odd in a world in which red has become the universally understood color of the GQP.  But for another, the font size is very small.  Shockingly small for something that says "TRUMP" on it.  It almost implies a certain shame--"I'm putting out this yard sign, but I don't actually want to advertise that I'm voting for that guy."

There are houses in the neighborhood that always have their GQP campaign signs out, no matter whether the candidate at the top of the ticket is Trump or Cruz or Abbott, but which don't have anything right now.  Maybe it's just too early.  I don't know.

And I think all this is meaningless.  But it's interesting to observe on an otherwise-slow Wednesday.

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Posted
Just now, wildcat09 said:

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That will be the next criticism.  "How can voters understand this? It's too technical and wonky" 

IT'S FOR YOU FUCKING SHITBAGS IN THE MEDIA TO EXPLAIN TO VOTERS SINCE YOU DEMANDED SPECIFICS

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