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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

 

 

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  • I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

  • Clintonaldo
    Clintonaldo

    Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

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    I am an American Indian, born in rural Pennsylvania while my dad attended Penn State for graduate school in the 70s.  He was accepted by all on campus, but encountered plenty of racism when outside of

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

Your vibes are far more immaculate than Bozo's.

1 minute ago, hookem2010 said:

Your vibes are far more immaculate than Bozo's.

She’d basically have to be cratering worse than HRC did in the rurals/with WWC voters and shedding massive amounts of black and Hispanic support. This poll and PA being a pure tossup shouldn’t exist in the same universe unless every pollster has absolutely missed one specific demographic shifting wayyyy to the right 

9 hours ago, Sheep Have Wool said:

Imagine you've got a very, very small penis. You've been mocked for it in the locker room. Women laughed. Suddenly, someone offered you the opportunity to direct people's attention to something other than your microdick. You don't care if it's true, you just desperately want the focus to be elsewhere. You're looking to cover up your inadequacies and insecurities, not engage in critical thinking.

It's the story of MAGA in general and @Stros121 specifically. 

Objection!

Some people have micropeni and can engage in critical thinking!

10 hours ago, C-Man said:


05b4cb0fdf5a5d33078e0a9bd7f9a66e.jpg

Perfect! What a horrible person. He has all the looks and character of someone who would have been in Hitler's core leadership group. 

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

But people on this board need to come to grips with the fact that we really don’t know what’s happening. Lots of people who had not previously voted for Trump had grudgingly come around on him and it’s hard to unring that bell. Red areas of the rust belt have only gotten redder, the polls can only catch what swims through the net and Donald Trump may be winning this comfortably.

Dick Fucking Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris. If people like Dick Cheney are endorsing Harris, there will be a lot of Republicans who, in the privacy of the voting booth, will vote for Harris or just not vote.

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17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 


Yup

 

31 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

 

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’d basically have to be cratering worse than HRC did in the rurals/with WWC voters and shedding massive amounts of black and Hispanic support. This poll and PA being a pure tossup shouldn’t exist in the same universe unless every pollster has absolutely missed one specific demographic shifting wayyyy to the right 

I am really struggling understanding the polling unless the pollsters are just flat out lying.  I think yesterday in this thread someone posted how Republican internals show Trump will win PA and all the sunbelt states and easily win the election.  What am I missing?  It's not like his presidency or anything he has done since then should make more people vote for him.  He has always had his base that would vote for him even if Jesus came down from the heavens and told them not to but now the polls supposedly show shifts of people now saying, "Gee, this Trump seems great, and we need to make him our leader again".  Only thing I can figure is there may be more people than we realize that won't vote for a woman for President.  I hope I am wrong but that would be the reason for the magic polling that keeps showing more and more people moving towards Trump.

IIRC, the district level polling (when we got a lot of it in 16/20) pointed to signs that the election would be closer than the state polling.  The problem is the total lack of district level polling right now that aren't internals or one-off polls.  What we have gotten does not hold up to the CW that every swing state is Trump +1 to Harris +1

Today, the DCCC published an internal of WI-01 that put the Republican up 3 and the presidential race tied at 49-49.  The Republican won the redrawn 1st CD 54-45 and Trump would have won it 52-47. 

Edited by Js1

1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I am really struggling understanding the polling unless the pollsters are just flat out lying.  I think yesterday in this thread someone posted how Republican internals show Trump will win PA and all the sunbelt states and easily win the election.  What am I missing?

I don't think they're lying.  I think they are so fucking afraid of being wrong again, they're overcompensating.  Nate Cohn mentioned the number of polls that do recall samples, which tend to favor the out of power party / loser of the last election, which are underestimating Harris.

I also posted that the person who said that was Mark Halperin, who works for Newsmax.  Newsmax is about as legit as fucking Breitbart.

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

It’s also not the first Nazi rally that MSG has hosted 

O'Brien?

28 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

I don't know how anyone expects anything of Morgan.  It must be the accent.  He's a game show winner who considers himself a Tory and counts Donald Trump as a close personal friend.

 

 

Edited by jimmyjazz

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate Cohn

I read that when you posted it. It concluded nothing for me. 

About the best I can sum it up, "Some polls weight by whether or not you recall who you voted for, and that favors the winner, but some don't and here's a muddy pool of words. Shrug. Nobody knows but they deathly afraid of being really wrong and we're all hedging one way or the other."

 

 

35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

I still think PA will be close but just to add this district has a Cook rating of R+5 and went for Dr Oz 49-48 in 2022. Also heavily for shapiro in 2022 so there's also that.

Also Harry Enten's "the true margin of error is 9%!!!!" is not analysis, it's hedging.

It's worse than the "the ACTUAL unemployment rate is 7%!!!!!" people. 

37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

Jibe.

 

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17 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

This is sometimes called “the politics of impotence.”

the key points are:

- the government can’t be fixed

- we can’t make the world better

- People I don’t know are scary 

- the success of other people is a threat to my success 

- I’m afraid of cities

- I’m a real man

See also, Vance, JD

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

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The elections in this country are so fucked. I've completely come around to the idea that taxpayer dollars should fund candidate elections equally, and that's fucking it. We need to outlaw political commericals, we need to outlaw all fucking social media advertising. Campaigning should be rallies, town hall interviews, and fucking debates, and those should be posted unedited and aired on telivision live and in replays over and over, and that should fucking be it. Crack down on most of the ways to fucking lie easily. Fuck. 

50 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

 

 

And they all know it. Hence the desperation. There's a long line of grifters who are going to be socially and economical ruined if Trump loses. 

It's truly great.

54 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

The more this guy talks the more I start to think being anti migrant might have some perks

 

Anybody got Jimmy Johnson's NFL Draft Value Chart? How many Haitians are Elon Musk and Piers Morgan worth? (I kid. I kid. Mostly.)

29 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

O'Brien?

He's Murphy. I'm O'Brien. 

2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

And they all know it. Hence the desperation. There's a long line of grifters who are going to be socially and economical ruined if Trump loses. 

It's truly great.

Not me, I'm gonna do GREAT.  My "Challenge the Stollen Election II, Kamala Boogaloo" PAC is gonna RAKE in the bucks.  The dipshits' disability/SS checks will hardly pause in their bank accounts before they send the money on to me to STOP THE STEAL!

anthony-adams-rubbing-hands.jpg

5 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

He's Murphy. I'm O'Brien. 

RIP, @YGIFS

22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The elections in this country are so fucked. I've completely come around to the idea that taxpayer dollars should fund candidate elections equally, and that's fucking it. We need to outlaw political commericals, we need to outlaw all fucking social media advertising. Campaigning should be rallies, town hall interviews, and fucking debates, and those should be posted unedited and aired on telivision live and in replays over and over, and that should fucking be it. Crack down on most of the ways to fucking lie easily. Fuck. 

And no more goddamn fucking signs in the Public ROW. Private property only.

 

Never happening though.

1 hour ago, C-Man said:

 

Piers Morgan is relevant to the discourse in 2024 the way that Milton Berle was “Mr Television” in 1979. 

28 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

We need to outlaw political commercials, we need to outlaw all fucking social media advertising. Campaigning should be rallies, town hall interviews, and fucking debates, and those should be posted unedited and aired on television live and in replays over and over, and that should fucking be it.

Just heard an interview of Yuval Noah Harari (I liked his book, Sapiens).  He was making this point.  Arguing that having all the information you can possibly get will lead you to the truth is like arguing that eating all the food you can possibly eat is healthy.  The ethical curators of information have given in to the flood of AI curated information - true and false.

1 hour ago, C-Man said:

 

"The more I watch Michael Jordan highlights the more it appears he was a below average player. Just dribbles around and throws it in the air sometimes. The Bulls must regret having drafted him."

That's what these people sound like. Words without context, support, or meaning.

I’ll be damned- Trump said something that’s true. The world is smaller than the universe. Some one give that guy a bran cookie. 

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Biden +70 

He’s not even trying anymore 

Is he trying to get his supporters killed by holding a rally in such a “hellhole” where “MURDERS & VIOLENT CRIME HIT UNIMAGINABLE RECORDS!”

18 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Piers Morgan is relevant to the discourse in 2024 the way that Milton Berle was “Mr Television” in 1979. 

 

Counterpoint:   Milton was still packing a weapon of mass destruction in 1979, so he had that going for him.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0

7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

"The more I watch Michael Jordan highlights the more it appears he was a below average player. Just dribbles around and throws it in the air sometimes. The Bulls must regret having drafted him."

That's what these people sound like. Words without context, support, or meaning.

Like a commentator the week of the Texas-UTSA game. "The more I watch Texas highlights the less impressed I am. Texas must be kicking themselves for hiring Sark."

Heard her on Stern yesterday.  I want to dispel the notion that Harris is a Boomer.  She said she liked hip hop and Doug liked Depeche Mode but they both liked Prince.

Gen X in the house....

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What makes me ragey about this election (and others) is Americans are so stupid they can’t see that 4 men who aren’t even American are trying to run, and ruin, this country:

 

Musk

Theil

Murdoch

Putin

  • Popular Post

EXCLUSIVE: Bulwark Poll Finds Large Chunk of Haley Voters Ready to Ditch Trump

Quote

Republican and independent backers of the former U.N. ambassador are far more open to voting Democratic than four years ago.

A SIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF SELF-IDENTIFIED Nikki Haley voters say they will support Kamala Harris for president, according to a new survey shared exclusively with The Bulwark. 

If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win just 45 percent of those who backed Haley in the GOP primary while 36 percent said they’d back Harris, the new poll shows, according to the survey of 781 registered Republicans and independents conducted by the new Democratic-leaning polling outfit Blueprint. The poll did not include Democrats or Democrat-leaning Independents who supported Haley.

Trump’s level of support from Haley voters in the poll represents a significant drop in support for Trump, who won those same voters against Joe Biden by 59-28 percent. That 22 percentage point change in preference (from plus 31 percent for Trump in 2020 to plus 9 percent in this survey) could represent a swing of millions of votes.

The findings are among the most substantive analyses of Haley supporters. They come on the heels of a New York Times/Siena College pollshowing that Harris has made major inroads among GOP voters, with 9 percent saying they planned to support the vice president, up from 5 percent from a survey last month.

“Between 5 and 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are Nikki Haley supporters,” said Evan Roth Smith, the lead pollster for Blueprint, which conducted the poll between September 28 and October 6. “If Harris can indeed win a third or more of them in the general election, it will provide a boost of a couple percentage points. In such a close race where the margin of victory will be razor-thin, particularly in the swing states, it’s clearly worth pursuing these voters.”

Harris’s campaign has made aggressive efforts to reach disaffected Republicans in the final weeks of the election, leaning on longtime conservatives and former Trump officials as surrogates and featuring them in ads. 

Haley supporters are those that the campaign believes it needs to reach. During the GOP primary, a chunk of the electorate consistently supported the former U.N. ambassador over Trump, even after she suspended her campaign. What was less clear was whether they were Democratic-leaning voters who would naturally vote for the Democratic ticket anyway, Republicans who would come home to Trump, or Republicans who would cross the aisle if the former president emerged as the party’s nominee. 

The Blueprint survey fills in some of those answers. It shows slippage for Trump among both Haley voters who identified as Republicans and those who identified as independents. Only 49 percent of Republican Haley voters plan to vote for Trump in 2024, compared to 64 percent who voted for him in 2020. Among independent Haley voters, only 38 percent said they were voting for Trump, compared with 48 percent who backed him in 2020.

Overall, Haley voters who participated in the Blueprint survey had negative views of both candidates though slightly worse for Trump. The former president was viewed favorably by 27 percent of this pool compared to 73 percent who viewed him unfavorably (for a -46 percent rating). Harris, by contrast, had a -32 percent approval rating (34 percent favorable and 66 percent unfavorable). Notably, President Joe Biden, who bowed out of the race in July, was viewed even more negatively than Trump, with a 25 percent favorable rating among Haley voters and a 74 percent unfavorable rating for a net -49 rating.

The self-identified Haley voters in the Blueprint survey appeared to find themselves in a political island. A virtually equal percentage said that they believed the Democratic party (27 percent) and Republican party (26 percent) had gotten more extreme. (Fifty-six percent said both parties have become equally more extreme.) Similar percentages said that the Democratic party (30 percent) and Republican party (31 percent) had become more accepting of moderate and swing voters.

As for what’s impacting those perceptions, Haley voters say they are more concerned that Trump’s character is erratic (84 percent) rather than that his policies were too extreme (64 percent). For Harris, the problem is reversed: 70 percent said her policies were too extreme while 57 percent said her character was too erratic.

Haley herself has endorsed Trump despite a primary campaign that, she acknowledged, grew divisive and personal by the end. She spoke at the Republican convention this July and in September, she signed a fundraising email for the ex-president, noting that she worked for him and declaring that they were “on the same team.” But she has not yet appeared with Trump on the trail and the two do not appear to have spoken.

A Trump adviser familiar with the former ambassador’s role in the campaign told The Bulwark that Haley is planning to fundraise for the campaign and has recorded a robocall targeting independents and voters such as the ones surveyed in the Blueprint poll, the adviser said. Haley also may join Trump on the campaign trail or have her own surrogate events.

“Haley is very much on the team and is true to her word,” said the adviser.

A Haley spokeswoman and adviser did not return messages for comment.

But Haley’s larger absence has sparked concern in some conservative quarters. Conservative Washington Postcolumnist Marc Thiessen wrote on Tuesday that Haley could serve as a key validator for Trump among those Republicans who remained on edge about sending him back to the White House. “Why is Trump not deploying her on the campaign trail?” Thiessen asked.

Haley has said she is willing to take on the task. She recently told CBS’s Face the Nation that the former president “knows I’m on standby . . .  but there hasn’t been an ask as of yet.”

 

10 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Heard her on Stern yesterday.  I want to dispel the notion that Harris is a Boomer.  She said she liked hip hop and Doug liked Depeche Mode but they both liked Prince.

Gen X in the house....

Whatever 

Economist/YouGov

Harris 49, Trump 45

1 hour ago, Brandywine said:

Perfect! What a horrible person. He has all the looks and character of someone who would have been in Hitler's core leadership group. 

Except his wife is Jewish

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Economist/YouGov

Harris 49, Trump 45

National polling seems to be amazingly consistent. 

35 minutes ago, 'stache said:

"The more I watch Michael Jordan highlights the more it appears he was a below average player. Just dribbles around and throws it in the air sometimes. The Bulls must regret having drafted him."

That's what these people sound like. Words without context, support, or meaning.

Years ago I saw some R congressman say, "The problem with Obamacare is it doesn't work."

Nothing more than that.  No explanation, no backup, no statistics.  Just some guy from Oklahoma or Alabama saying what he's been lobbied to say.

No Jews supported Hitler /DT, probably

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Trump bitches about immigrants all they time and is married to one.  JD Vance hates brown people and is married to one.  See a pattern here?

37 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Heard her on Stern yesterday.  I want to dispel the notion that Harris is a Boomer.  She said she liked hip hop and Doug liked Depeche Mode but they both liked Prince.

Gen X in the house....

Robert Redford Nod GIF

Edited by Bateshorn

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