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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

Your vibes are far more immaculate than Bozo's.

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Posted
1 minute ago, hookem2010 said:

Your vibes are far more immaculate than Bozo's.

She’d basically have to be cratering worse than HRC did in the rurals/with WWC voters and shedding massive amounts of black and Hispanic support. This poll and PA being a pure tossup shouldn’t exist in the same universe unless every pollster has absolutely missed one specific demographic shifting wayyyy to the right 

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Posted
9 hours ago, Sheep Have Wool said:

Imagine you've got a very, very small penis. You've been mocked for it in the locker room. Women laughed. Suddenly, someone offered you the opportunity to direct people's attention to something other than your microdick. You don't care if it's true, you just desperately want the focus to be elsewhere. You're looking to cover up your inadequacies and insecurities, not engage in critical thinking.

It's the story of MAGA in general and @Stros121 specifically. 

Objection!

Some people have micropeni and can engage in critical thinking!

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Posted
2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

But people on this board need to come to grips with the fact that we really don’t know what’s happening. Lots of people who had not previously voted for Trump had grudgingly come around on him and it’s hard to unring that bell. Red areas of the rust belt have only gotten redder, the polls can only catch what swims through the net and Donald Trump may be winning this comfortably.

Dick Fucking Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris. If people like Dick Cheney are endorsing Harris, there will be a lot of Republicans who, in the privacy of the voting booth, will vote for Harris or just not vote.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’d basically have to be cratering worse than HRC did in the rurals/with WWC voters and shedding massive amounts of black and Hispanic support. This poll and PA being a pure tossup shouldn’t exist in the same universe unless every pollster has absolutely missed one specific demographic shifting wayyyy to the right 

I am really struggling understanding the polling unless the pollsters are just flat out lying.  I think yesterday in this thread someone posted how Republican internals show Trump will win PA and all the sunbelt states and easily win the election.  What am I missing?  It's not like his presidency or anything he has done since then should make more people vote for him.  He has always had his base that would vote for him even if Jesus came down from the heavens and told them not to but now the polls supposedly show shifts of people now saying, "Gee, this Trump seems great, and we need to make him our leader again".  Only thing I can figure is there may be more people than we realize that won't vote for a woman for President.  I hope I am wrong but that would be the reason for the magic polling that keeps showing more and more people moving towards Trump.

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Posted (edited)

IIRC, the district level polling (when we got a lot of it in 16/20) pointed to signs that the election would be closer than the state polling.  The problem is the total lack of district level polling right now that aren't internals or one-off polls.  What we have gotten does not hold up to the CW that every swing state is Trump +1 to Harris +1

Today, the DCCC published an internal of WI-01 that put the Republican up 3 and the presidential race tied at 49-49.  The Republican won the redrawn 1st CD 54-45 and Trump would have won it 52-47. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I am really struggling understanding the polling unless the pollsters are just flat out lying.  I think yesterday in this thread someone posted how Republican internals show Trump will win PA and all the sunbelt states and easily win the election.  What am I missing?

I don't think they're lying.  I think they are so fucking afraid of being wrong again, they're overcompensating.  Nate Cohn mentioned the number of polls that do recall samples, which tend to favor the out of power party / loser of the last election, which are underestimating Harris.

I also posted that the person who said that was Mark Halperin, who works for Newsmax.  Newsmax is about as legit as fucking Breitbart.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

I don't know how anyone expects anything of Morgan.  It must be the accent.  He's a game show winner who considers himself a Tory and counts Donald Trump as a close personal friend.

 

 

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate Cohn

I read that when you posted it. It concluded nothing for me. 

About the best I can sum it up, "Some polls weight by whether or not you recall who you voted for, and that favors the winner, but some don't and here's a muddy pool of words. Shrug. Nobody knows but they deathly afraid of being really wrong and we're all hedging one way or the other."

 

 

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

I still think PA will be close but just to add this district has a Cook rating of R+5 and went for Dr Oz 49-48 in 2022. Also heavily for shapiro in 2022 so there's also that.

Posted

Also Harry Enten's "the true margin of error is 9%!!!!" is not analysis, it's hedging.

It's worse than the "the ACTUAL unemployment rate is 7%!!!!!" people. 

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

 

 

And they all know it. Hence the desperation. There's a long line of grifters who are going to be socially and economical ruined if Trump loses. 

It's truly great.

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Posted
54 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

The more this guy talks the more I start to think being anti migrant might have some perks

 

Anybody got Jimmy Johnson's NFL Draft Value Chart? How many Haitians are Elon Musk and Piers Morgan worth? (I kid. I kid. Mostly.)

Posted
2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

And they all know it. Hence the desperation. There's a long line of grifters who are going to be socially and economical ruined if Trump loses. 

It's truly great.

Not me, I'm gonna do GREAT.  My "Challenge the Stollen Election II, Kamala Boogaloo" PAC is gonna RAKE in the bucks.  The dipshits' disability/SS checks will hardly pause in their bank accounts before they send the money on to me to STOP THE STEAL!

anthony-adams-rubbing-hands.jpg

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Posted
22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The elections in this country are so fucked. I've completely come around to the idea that taxpayer dollars should fund candidate elections equally, and that's fucking it. We need to outlaw political commericals, we need to outlaw all fucking social media advertising. Campaigning should be rallies, town hall interviews, and fucking debates, and those should be posted unedited and aired on telivision live and in replays over and over, and that should fucking be it. Crack down on most of the ways to fucking lie easily. Fuck. 

And no more goddamn fucking signs in the Public ROW. Private property only.

 

Never happening though.

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Posted
28 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

We need to outlaw political commercials, we need to outlaw all fucking social media advertising. Campaigning should be rallies, town hall interviews, and fucking debates, and those should be posted unedited and aired on television live and in replays over and over, and that should fucking be it.

Just heard an interview of Yuval Noah Harari (I liked his book, Sapiens).  He was making this point.  Arguing that having all the information you can possibly get will lead you to the truth is like arguing that eating all the food you can possibly eat is healthy.  The ethical curators of information have given in to the flood of AI curated information - true and false.

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Posted
1 hour ago, C-Man said:

 

"The more I watch Michael Jordan highlights the more it appears he was a below average player. Just dribbles around and throws it in the air sometimes. The Bulls must regret having drafted him."

That's what these people sound like. Words without context, support, or meaning.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Biden +70 

He’s not even trying anymore 

Is he trying to get his supporters killed by holding a rally in such a “hellhole” where “MURDERS & VIOLENT CRIME HIT UNIMAGINABLE RECORDS!”

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Piers Morgan is relevant to the discourse in 2024 the way that Milton Berle was “Mr Television” in 1979. 

 

Counterpoint:   Milton was still packing a weapon of mass destruction in 1979, so he had that going for him.

 

 

 

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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Posted
7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

"The more I watch Michael Jordan highlights the more it appears he was a below average player. Just dribbles around and throws it in the air sometimes. The Bulls must regret having drafted him."

That's what these people sound like. Words without context, support, or meaning.

Like a commentator the week of the Texas-UTSA game. "The more I watch Texas highlights the less impressed I am. Texas must be kicking themselves for hiring Sark."

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Posted

Heard her on Stern yesterday.  I want to dispel the notion that Harris is a Boomer.  She said she liked hip hop and Doug liked Depeche Mode but they both liked Prince.

Gen X in the house....

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Heard her on Stern yesterday.  I want to dispel the notion that Harris is a Boomer.  She said she liked hip hop and Doug liked Depeche Mode but they both liked Prince.

Gen X in the house....

Whatever 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Brandywine said:

Perfect! What a horrible person. He has all the looks and character of someone who would have been in Hitler's core leadership group. 

Except his wife is Jewish

Posted
35 minutes ago, 'stache said:

"The more I watch Michael Jordan highlights the more it appears he was a below average player. Just dribbles around and throws it in the air sometimes. The Bulls must regret having drafted him."

That's what these people sound like. Words without context, support, or meaning.

Years ago I saw some R congressman say, "The problem with Obamacare is it doesn't work."

Nothing more than that.  No explanation, no backup, no statistics.  Just some guy from Oklahoma or Alabama saying what he's been lobbied to say.

Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Heard her on Stern yesterday.  I want to dispel the notion that Harris is a Boomer.  She said she liked hip hop and Doug liked Depeche Mode but they both liked Prince.

Gen X in the house....

Robert Redford Nod GIF

Edited by Bateshorn


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