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Posted

The mom of a missing girl and I are both on the board of a nonprofit; our quarterly meeting is tomorrow - obviously she will be absent, but I’m dreading that meeting. I just hope we can get through the agenda before everyone is crying.

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Posted
1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I think at points of massive debris pile up it acts as a drain catch essentially and there could be piles of individuals that floated into it as well as individually found. 
 

That and people in enclosures like RVs or vehicles tend to be inside unless the structure breaks apart.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

That and people in enclosures like RVs or vehicles tend to be inside unless the structure breaks apart.  

I saw a TikTok where a witness said she saw something like a pile of 40ish cars or so that haven’t even been gone through yet. 

Posted
42 minutes ago, Chopper said:

FEMA boss is AWOL per Marisa Kabas. 

"Staff at FEMA haven't received any internal communications from the agency or department leadership since the deadly floods in Texas, which is unheard of in the wake of a major disaster."

"Acting Administrator David Richardson is 'nowhere to be found.'"

Why is this a surprise? The president said State’s are on their own and the feds won’t help, and that was before he set fire to every agency by mass layoffs.  

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Posted
2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Personally wouldn’t be surprised if it’s quite a bit more

The guy from the Cajun Navy was on CNN this afternoon and said based upon the number of cars and especially RV’s they are finding he thought it was more like 500. He mentioned something about RV’s being submerged in 40 feet of water and something about air pockets. Anchor asked if he was suggesting people could be alive and he kind of stammered and then the feed was lost. 

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Posted
54 minutes ago, Mittens said:

We should invest in that immediately. Unfortunately, I’m becoming resigned to the fact that elsewhere, these tragic events will simply remain a fact of life.

alonzo-mourning-gary-payton.gif

 

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Posted

I am just amazed by the grace that these parents have demonstrated in some of the interviews.  This family are really good people and it really makes me angry they are going through this. 
 

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Three days later with barely any federal response he's spiking the football and proclaiming victory but sure you keep arguing. 

Are there any reports that more help, assets or resources are needed?

Posted
1 hour ago, Mittens said:

Jim Spencer, fwiw

  Hide contents

IN DEFENSE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…

Upon learning tonight it is now possible the death toll could reach 250, I am increasingly depressed as I am sure many of you are. This hits so close to home for me having been a member of the weather community for 40 years now—34 in Austin. I’m also painfully aware what we all feel pales with that of families of those missing or lost. Our hearts break for them all.

As I mentioned in previous posts we must have answers. And in my opinion, which is mine alone and not that of KXAN-TV, here is where we stand:

1. The meteorologists that I have worked with hand-in hand for years at our local National Weather Service office are consummate professionals and I know are equally devastated about the events of July 4-5, but they should take comfort in the fact that they did their job. Flash Flood Watches and Warnings MEAN SOMETHING. And the first Watch went out on the afternoon of July 3rd. The first Flash Flood Warning went out nearly three hours before water started sweeping away campers at Camp Mystic and 4 hours before many more died downriver.

The fact that Kerr County officials and others say “we didn’t know it was coming” is either the height of negligence or a demonstration of total incompetence. The questions that remain include, did adequate cell service alarm their phones at 1:15 a.m.? Was NOAA weather radio reception in that area adequate to receive the Warning and set off an alert tone? Either way, with a Flash Flood Watch in effect for 14 hours before the the flooding began, and a Warning issued 2-4 hours before the catastrophe, there is NO excuse for the lack of preparation and response from the camps, county officials, law enforcement, etc.

I read that the Kerrville City Manager was jogging on the Guadalupe River trail at 4 a.m., minutes before a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY was declared, yet unaware that a flood wave was just miles upriver headed rapidly his way. How is it possible he was not aware his city had been placed under Flash Flood Warning nearly 3 hours earlier? I am not assigning blame to the City Manager, but obviously their emergency communications system in that city and county was woefully, dangerously inadequate.

2. Regarding these controversial federal cuts and the understaffing at the National Weather Service office: Yes, there were six unfilled positions, but the official word is that the office was fully staffed that morning. Maybe we will never know if things would have turned out differently if some of these important vacancies hadn’t existed. Donald Rumsfeld famously said, “You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you might want…”

I heard a former NOAA administrator use the analogy of two football teams facing off—one with 11 players, but the other with only 8. I know at KXAN, our forecast products and public messaging was always best when we had more people in the weather center rather than fewer. Who wants to do their job with one hand tied behind their back?

And here is my great concern: Even if the meteorologists in that office that morning, or the meteorologists who are no longer there due to cuts believe in their hearts that things might have been different if not for the vacancies, would they tell us their true feelings? I have my doubts in this age of intimidation of those who criticize political decisions. Hell, if I thought I or my family might be subject to death threats if I went public with a criticism of policy-makers, I might reconsider too—or at least say what I needed to say anonymously. I’m not saying this is the case necessarily, but it would be understandable.

3. Finally, to those in the Austin area—Williamson, Travis and Burnet counties who have lost loved ones or still haven’t found the missing, our hearts ache for you too. This additional tragedy also haunts us at KXAN, but also defines a bigger problem. The National Weather Service did an excellent job, issuing a Flash Flood Emergency well in advance, early July 5th for the very areas where people were swept away. KXAN meteorologists were on the air broadcasting dire Warnings.

But, were those people who were swept away asleep at the time? Did they hear their phones alarm, or had they turned off their “alerts” setting? Did they have a NOAA Weather Radio that alarmed them, or was the first sign of disaster when they felt their homes floating? These alerts have to be taken seriously, and it is CRITICAL that people who live near creeks, streams and rivers always have a method of receiving these alerts, then take take action to protect themselves without waiting on officials to evacuate them. But, we’ve been preaching the importance of taking Warnings seriously and having a weather radio, etc. forever and nothing seems to change.

Sirens are not always feasible, but I believe along high recreation waterways like the Guadalupe river they will need to be mandatory. We have technology now that could automatically trigger these sirens. We should invest in that immediately. Unfortunately, I’m becoming resigned to the fact that elsewhere, these tragic events will simply remain a fact of life.

 

Jim Spencer’s assessment is 100% on point and it was easily known from about 9am on July 4th.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, troph said:

Jim Spencer’s assessment is 100% on point and it was easily known from about 9am on July 4th.

Agree. He’s done a really good job of articulating and summarizing where the failures occurred. I know we will find out more in the coming days, weeks and months, but for now he’s addressed the shortcomings in a clear and concise manner without injecting a lot of emotion into it.

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Posted
9 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

Here are the relevant transcripts of the Kerr County Commissioners Court.

 


Goddamnit. These fucks actually said this.

Dead in the water.

 

IMG_3944.thumb.jpeg.d7fda85ef5279f139e72e6a5503ea64f.jpeg
 

 

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Posted
8 hours ago, CTC2 said:

I am just amazed by the grace that these parents have demonstrated in some of the interviews.  This family are really good people and it really makes me angry they are going through this. 
 

 

 

That is one strong and amazing man.

Thanks for posting.

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Posted
11 hours ago, Mittens said:

Jim Spencer, fwiw

  Hide contents

IN DEFENSE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…

Upon learning tonight it is now possible the death toll could reach 250, I am increasingly depressed as I am sure many of you are. This hits so close to home for me having been a member of the weather community for 40 years now—34 in Austin. I’m also painfully aware what we all feel pales with that of families of those missing or lost. Our hearts break for them all.

As I mentioned in previous posts we must have answers. And in my opinion, which is mine alone and not that of KXAN-TV, here is where we stand:

1. The meteorologists that I have worked with hand-in hand for years at our local National Weather Service office are consummate professionals and I know are equally devastated about the events of July 4-5, but they should take comfort in the fact that they did their job. Flash Flood Watches and Warnings MEAN SOMETHING. And the first Watch went out on the afternoon of July 3rd. The first Flash Flood Warning went out nearly three hours before water started sweeping away campers at Camp Mystic and 4 hours before many more died downriver.

The fact that Kerr County officials and others say “we didn’t know it was coming” is either the height of negligence or a demonstration of total incompetence. The questions that remain include, did adequate cell service alarm their phones at 1:15 a.m.? Was NOAA weather radio reception in that area adequate to receive the Warning and set off an alert tone? Either way, with a Flash Flood Watch in effect for 14 hours before the the flooding began, and a Warning issued 2-4 hours before the catastrophe, there is NO excuse for the lack of preparation and response from the camps, county officials, law enforcement, etc.

I read that the Kerrville City Manager was jogging on the Guadalupe River trail at 4 a.m., minutes before a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY was declared, yet unaware that a flood wave was just miles upriver headed rapidly his way. How is it possible he was not aware his city had been placed under Flash Flood Warning nearly 3 hours earlier? I am not assigning blame to the City Manager, but obviously their emergency communications system in that city and county was woefully, dangerously inadequate.

2. Regarding these controversial federal cuts and the understaffing at the National Weather Service office: Yes, there were six unfilled positions, but the official word is that the office was fully staffed that morning. Maybe we will never know if things would have turned out differently if some of these important vacancies hadn’t existed. Donald Rumsfeld famously said, “You go to war with the Army you have, not the Army you might want…”

I heard a former NOAA administrator use the analogy of two football teams facing off—one with 11 players, but the other with only 8. I know at KXAN, our forecast products and public messaging was always best when we had more people in the weather center rather than fewer. Who wants to do their job with one hand tied behind their back?

And here is my great concern: Even if the meteorologists in that office that morning, or the meteorologists who are no longer there due to cuts believe in their hearts that things might have been different if not for the vacancies, would they tell us their true feelings? I have my doubts in this age of intimidation of those who criticize political decisions. Hell, if I thought I or my family might be subject to death threats if I went public with a criticism of policy-makers, I might reconsider too—or at least say what I needed to say anonymously. I’m not saying this is the case necessarily, but it would be understandable.

3. Finally, to those in the Austin area—Williamson, Travis and Burnet counties who have lost loved ones or still haven’t found the missing, our hearts ache for you too. This additional tragedy also haunts us at KXAN, but also defines a bigger problem. The National Weather Service did an excellent job, issuing a Flash Flood Emergency well in advance, early July 5th for the very areas where people were swept away. KXAN meteorologists were on the air broadcasting dire Warnings.

But, were those people who were swept away asleep at the time? Did they hear their phones alarm, or had they turned off their “alerts” setting? Did they have a NOAA Weather Radio that alarmed them, or was the first sign of disaster when they felt their homes floating? These alerts have to be taken seriously, and it is CRITICAL that people who live near creeks, streams and rivers always have a method of receiving these alerts, then take take action to protect themselves without waiting on officials to evacuate them. But, we’ve been preaching the importance of taking Warnings seriously and having a weather radio, etc. forever and nothing seems to change.

Sirens are not always feasible, but I believe along high recreation waterways like the Guadalupe river they will need to be mandatory. We have technology now that could automatically trigger these sirens. We should invest in that immediately. Unfortunately, I’m becoming resigned to the fact that elsewhere, these tragic events will simply remain a fact of life.

 

Thanks for sharing. Point 1 makes me ragey.

Posted

Friend lives up on Sandy Creek arm, they had APD circling for what looks like a good hour to an hour and a half sweeping up and down the creek arm.  He wrote me back about 30 minutes later and there were 3 police / sheriff boats up that way near Jonestown park motoring around a large debris field.  Curious if there's been any word if they found something.

image.thumb.png.f6aebc43ccdb36cb3b2f9a362eb68365.png

Posted
10 hours ago, Gucci_Suit said:

Totally suspicious of you people but I have my daughter back, my next door neighbor girl back, daughter’s friends all good. Dallas friend’s kids made it thru. One of my close friends lost his daughter, and my other less close friend hasn’t found his yet. We are still shocked but the girls seem completely normal. 

Thank God for that. Kids that age are resilient, but speaking from personal experience with children who have had tragic loss in their life, they can hide it pretty well. I wish I could tell you how to talk to them about it, but I did a terrible job. If you’re in the DFW area you can PM me for some information on a really good counselor.

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Posted

from the NYT article - as if I wasn't sick enough over the thought of what those folks endured.......

 

Quote
During last week’s flood, the emergency response was more widely deployed further downstream from the camps. Police in Kerrville, the county seat, went door to door warning people to evacuate when the floodwaters approached later. Rita Olsen, who lives along the river in Kerrville, said she awoke about 5:30 a.m. to the sound of screams—and knocking on her door from a Kerrville policewoman.
“She said you need to get out now,” recalled Olsen, 43, a chef who fled with her two dogs as the river rose to her fence. A Ring security-camera video shows the officer telling her: “The people you hear screaming are in the river right now.”

 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Dendox said:

from the NYT article - as if I wasn't sick enough over the thought of what those folks endured.......

 

 

Rita is a FB "friend" that I've never met. She's a very accomplished BBQ cook in Texas and that's how we connected online. (Really close friend is deep in Texas BBQ scene and knows all these folks, including Rita.)

I had no idea any of this was going on until I jumped on FB mid-morning on the Fourth. I saw her videos, read her story and was aghast. I knew she was in the Hill Country but I wasn't exactly sure where. As the day went on, the news got worse and worse.

Posted
Facebook is basically bots posting for other bots. And olds.

By now every single SEC coach and various celebrities have stepped up to pay for all the victims funerals. Facebook said so.

AI Sark hugging families in Hunt, too. Unless that was real.
Posted
37 minutes ago, Dendox said:

from the NYT article - as if I wasn't sick enough over the thought of what those folks endured.......

 

 

that is unbelievably awful. I can't even imagine being woken up, told to leave, and then told those screams are from people actively dying. mother of god.

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Posted (edited)

assuming 300 souls perish, my quick searching and chatGPT-ing suggests the following:

 

1. top 25-30 deadliest natural disaster in US history

2. top 3 deadliest floods in US history

3. deadliest flood in Texas history (apparently a flood in 1921 (Williamson county / CenTex) killed 215)

Edited by troph
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Thank God for that. Kids that age are resilient, but speaking from personal experience with children who have had tragic loss in their life, they can hide it pretty well. I wish I could tell you how to talk to them about it, but I did a terrible job. If you’re in the DFW area you can PM me for some information on a really good counselor.

they can hide it and they are resilient to a point, but this kind of trauma isn't going away. as someone who suffered garden variety emotional trauma from shitbag parents during my entire childhood, it wasn't until my late 40s that I realized it impacts my every day and will never go away. I've done a lot to get better and I am not passing it on, but for example, I'm hyper, hyper vigilant and I can't sit still. I'm always worried about something, and I always feel a low grade bad when times are good. I'll die with those traits. These kids need help and they will need it for a long, long time.

Edited by troph
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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, troph said:

assuming 300 souls perish, my quick searching and chatGPT-ing suggests the following:

 

1. top 25-30 deadliest natural disaster in US history

2. top 3 deadliest floods in US history

3. deadliest flood in Texas history (apparently a flood in 1921 (Williamson county / CenTex) killed 215)

My first thought is how many of those other natural disasters were predicted to occur, from the day before to an hour before, depending on how you view general flood watches vs specific flood warnings.  Time of occurrence is a major factor in this particular type of disaster.  As is date of occurrence.  Both magnified the death toll substantially. 
 

it’s the same as if a large population spontaneously gathered in the direct path of a large tornado, and then went to sleep a couple of hours before the tornado spun up. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

My first thought is how many of those other natural disasters were predicted to occur, from the day before to an hour before, depending on how you view general flood watches vs specific flood warnings.  Time of occurrence is a major factor in this particular type of disaster.  As is date of occurrence.  Both magnified the death toll substantially. 

here are some of the top deadliest disasters...

 

Galveston hurricane 1900 - 8-12K dead

1906 SF earthquake - 3K dead

Hurricane Maria 2017 - 3k dead

Central US Heatwave 1980 - 1700 dead

Hurricane Katrina 2005 - 1800 dead

Johnstown Flood (PA) 1889 - 2200 dead

 

Floods only...

Johnstown Flood (PA) 1889

 - 2,200 dead

  Ohio River Flood 1937

- 385 dead

  Central Texas Flood 1921

- 215 dead

  Rapid City, SD Flood 1972

- 238 dead

  Big Thompson Canyon Flood, CO 1976

- 144 dead

     

The Guadalupe River Flood of 2025 is most certainly an outlier... most recent in the top 6 (all those above plus the Guad Flood) other than this one was 1976.  Pretty fucking damning given modern comms and weather predicting.  makes me ragey.

 

Edited by troph
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Posted (edited)

dang, those are some nice titties. 

 

edit - damn does this mean robert plant doesn't have titties?

Edited by troph
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Posted
11 minutes ago, Cajun said:

I saw dead deer floating in the lake yesterday.  I think some victims are going to be found a few hundred yards from my front door.

Is the lake under the no fly zone or could you drone it and report?

Posted

I've been flying the drone, so I hope I'm not out of compliance.  The deer was already being collected by animal control at ramp 7.  That's how I noticed it on my bike ride.

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, troph said:

that is unbelievably awful. I can't even imagine being woken up, told to leave, and then told those screams are from people actively dying. mother of god.

My whole thought process of reading that was why in the ever loving fuck are cops going door to door and you just don't have a audible alert that notifies the entire area to evacuate immediately. I suppose door to door cops is more efficient according to Kerr Co and Kerrville officials.

Edited by BurntOrange&White

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