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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

You know that feeling when you're heading out to the sunflower field and see clouds of dove working it, or you're setting out your duck decoys before shooting time, and the ducks are already buzzing your spread relentlessly?  That giddy feeling of "holy shit, just stay cool, aim well, and we'll limit out in 10 minutes?"

Ducks don't shoot back and have thermobaric weapons that can level whole city blocks housing civilians...

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27 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

We absolutely have to capacity to make logical risk/reward decisions, even involving Black Swan events.  Our problem is that we tend to try to fit everything prettily into mathematical models designed to solve for optimums and quite frequently underscore the 'constant' applied to the negative repercussions of a given situation.  

For instance, the minute Wall St started hiring quantum physicists to build derivative models was the minute the '08 Financial Bomb started.  The math works, the model works they thought.  Well, thousands of economists, who were equally adept at math told them that the math didn't work because they horrifically undervalued a constant in the equation:  Human Fucking Nature.  

You and I don’t agree about the ‘08 Financial Bomb and its root causes. And if there’s anything economists do a terrible job of, it’s quantifying human nature. 
 

And, bottom line, we don’t agree about the human capacity for taking into account worst case scenarios with a negligible chance of occurring. There are plenty of studies that document it, actually. 

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I think there's a fair amount of wishcasting about the success of the Ukrainian defense.  They're battering the hell out of the Russians, but the Russians have too many horses - they're going to inflict some savage pain.

If the estimates are correct they’ve already deployed 80% of the ground forces allotted for the invasion. Their regular army is only 900K. How much of the remainder can they tap before it becomes a serious national security problem for them? Many of their “republics” hate them. Finland is right next door.
 

As bad as their regulars suck I can’t imagine what their reserves look like. So they even have uniforms and weapons for them?

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We are in total agreement on this.

Perhaps I should have added an option 3 -- let Putin get away with whatever he wanted.  Which is, of course, unacceptable (and perhaps should have been back when he annexed Crimea, but nobody was really positioned to do a lot about it, other than sanctions....and I think we're seeing that only sanctions AND military resistance together is an effective response.

So, we are dealing with a dangerous fuckstick.  There are no good, low-risk options.  There are plenty of times in life where you have to choose from among several options, all of them very sub-optimal.  This is one of those times.  So, fucking do it.  There's no running away from reality, so make the best choice you can and execute.  And I think we're doing that.....and yes, it's still dangerous as fuck and terrifying.

yes-no.gif

Thisthisthis.  Remember us bombing the refineries at Ploesti?  Remember the German army being largely horse drawn at the end of the war?  I don't care how many tanks and rifles you have.  If you have no fuel and ammo, they are just paperweights.  If your army has no logistical support, you just turned soldiers into starving refugees with no transport.

They don't have to kill Russians to win.  They just have to neuter them.

Y'all hunters around here.  You know that feeling when you're heading out to the sunflower field and see clouds of dove working it, or you're setting out your duck decoys before shooting time, and the ducks are already buzzing your spread relentlessly?  That giddy feeling of "holy shit, just stay cool, aim well, and we'll limit out in 10 minutes?"

That's the vibe we're getting from Ukrainians with anti-armor weapons.  It is a target-rich environment.

This whole situation is going to be entered in the Game Theory textbooks early chapter on Prisoner's Dilemma for the foreseeable future.  

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3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Ducks don't shoot back and have thermobaric weapons that can level whole city blocks housing civilians...

And soldiers in the field either aren't thinking in that many dimensions, or....they're thinking that every duck they take out is one less duck firing such weapons at their people.

Those are some motivated fucking duck hunters out there.

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18 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

What are some things you think China can do?

Off the top of my head, China can agree to integrate Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages with its own Cross-Border Interbank Payment System to facilitate easier payments to Russia, which will help to minimize the impact to some degree to the SWIFT sanctions. It can also exert massive amounts of pressure on countries across the Global South and Asia who depend on trade relations with China to use the system, as well. It would be de-dollarization on speed, of course, which China would need to manage in accordance with its own strategic goals.

 

It can aggressively utilize its unparalleled access to raw materials and manufacturing to eliminate some of the fallout of Russia being cut off from much of the world's technology markets. It can directly help Russia prop up the Ruble, as it has done in the past, as recently as 2014. It can lend in massive amounts. It can exert a ton of pressure on a variety of state actors to stay out of the sanctions game, which it has an enormous capacity to do. I can go on and on.

 

It doesn't mean they WILL do these things...but they can. And it again goes to the fine line that I originally discussed of allowing Russia to weaken as much as possible without killing the Golden Goose that can provide incredible amounts of raw materials and energy at an easy, discounted price.

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4 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

You and I don’t agree about the ‘08 Financial Bomb and its root causes. And if there’s anything economists do a terrible job of, it’s quantifying human nature. 
 

And, bottom line, we don’t agree about the human capacity for taking into account worst case scenarios with a negligible chance of occurring. There are plenty of studies that document it, actually. 

I think taking a mathematician's view of a situation alongside a sociological decision making tree is much better suited for real world scenarios than one trying to land a rocket on Mars.  

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2 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Off the top of my head, China can agree to integrate Russia's System for Transfer of Financial Messages with its own Cross-Border Interbank Payment System to facilitate easier payments to Russia, which will help to minimize the impact to some degree to the SWIFT sanctions. It can also exert massive amounts of pressure on countries across the Global South and Asia who depend on trade relations with Russia to use the system, as well. It would be de-dollarization on speed, of course, which China would need to manage in accordance with its own strategic goals.

 

It can aggressively utilize its unparalleled access to raw materials and manufacturing to eliminate some of the fallout of Russia being cut off from much of the world's technology markets. It can directly help Russia prop up the Ruble, as it has done in the past, as recently as 2014. It can lend in massive amounts. It can exert a ton of pressure on a variety of state actors to stay out of the sanctions game, which it has an enormous capacity to do. I can go on and on.

 

It doesn't mean they WILL do these things...but they can. And it again goes to the fine line that I originally discussed of allowing Russia to weaken as much as possible without killing the Golden Goose that can provide incredible amounts of raw materials and energy at an easy, discounted price.

My guess would be they will do these things as much as they feel like they can get away with. Which will be a lot. Is it because they’re scared of a pro western leadership coming to power in Russia? Or is it because those things serve their interest, especially in lieu of the fact they feel like the West is trying to hem them in, just like it’s done historically.

What you’re talking about feels like the direct result of the national sentiment that the West served China a historic humiliation, but they’re finally getting powerful enough they don’t have to put up with our shit any more. 

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7 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

A Lieutenant with a map and a Private with an Idea, 2 most dangerous things the US Army has.

NCO (maybe an Lt) questioning his young troops (Privates)....."Anyone here an artist?"

Two young privates raise their hands quickly......

NCO- "Good! Take this gallon of paint and these brushes and go paint that curb."

Edited by BillyGoatHill
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12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I think there's a fair amount of wishcasting about the success of the Ukrainian defense.  They're battering the hell out of the Russians, but the Russians have too many horses - they're going to inflict some savage pain.

sure there is.  this thread has pretty much been all about hoping the script for Red Dawn can actually play out in real life.   my guess is everyone on this thread gives it about a 1% chance of happening.

I can't see puddy-tat only accepting taking the D and L areas.  he could get the whole thing but once he has Kiev, I believe he'll negotiate for half of it but with all the key areas his.   It sucks shit.  the only way out is the russian people.  we have to hope 30 years of relative freedom has done some good.

the rest of the world will have to make it fucking miserable for any russian, with any means, anywhere.  seems like we could see South America/Nazi redo.

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31 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^ Morale still high.

Zelenskyy still has balls of steel v

Taking the fight to Russia v

 

Fuck Ya! Zelenskyy is the hero we don’t deserve but desperately need! Stay alive! Keep fighting Ukraine! I believe in my heart more help will be on the way! Stay strong! Hope the aid continues to roll in non-stop and full-stop! And fuck Putin and any country or group that supports him or what the atrocities that are being committed in Ukraine right now! 
 

Slava Ukraini!  🇺🇦 We need Zelenskyy to live and be safe. His bravery and leadership is what is galvanizing the support of the world! Stay safe!!!!

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 

See the bolded points above.  When you have an opponent in an utterly defeated position, there are only two paths:

1 - Finish them off and kill them.  You ONLY do this with an opponent who you want to eliminate from existence (that is, you will NEVER need anything from them or any relationship with them ever again), AND who cannot do serious damage to you in their death throes.  I've been in the adversary business a LONG time, and I can tell you that sort of opponent is very, very rare.  And to be clear, Russia is not such an opponent.  They are a large country on our globe, interwoven into a global economy, with real human beings inside its borders.  We will have a relationship with them in the future.  And of course, they can destroy all human life on their way down, if they feel cornered enough.  So, this path seems....unwise.

2 - give them an off ramp that allows them to save face and declare SOME sort of victory.  Even if everyone knows it's bullshit, it's about the "claiming victory."  I will also note that this often happens, and can only happen, after regime change.  Again, I've had to advise clients that we will not reach a resolution of this case until we have battered our opponent so much that the people responsible for this shitshow are forced out, new folks come in to clean up the mess, and we give them a chance to take an offramp and claim some sort of victory.  That's not always the scenario, but it's not uncommon, either.

I think the big question here is "regime change in Russia or not."  I do think that regime change should absolutely be our goal here.  But I don't know if we can really achieve it.  And a weakened Putin remaining in power may be more dangerous than the current iteration of Putin remaining in power.

That's the most dangerous pivot point here -- regime change or not.  But either way, the only sane path is option 2.

Smart play.  If you want to cement your role as one of the two polar "superpowers," exerting control over the former superpower is a quick way to get there.  A marginalized Russia equals an ascendant China in a seat of global power.

I totally agree with you about giving Putin a way out that lets him feel secure at home.  There is no outcome at this point that does not leave him severely weakened outside of Russia.  If this ended today with no regime change in Russia, Putin's ambitions to re-establish the USSR/iron curtain have still been set back probably forever.  For Putin to reattempt this against another country in eastern Europe with some hope of success, Russia would need to reform, rebuild and modernize their entire military so as to exceed what would have been needed to be successful in the Ukraine, because now all of Europe is on to him.  He would need to do that with very little to no external assistance with pretty much the whole world against him.  If that is even possible, it is going to take more years than Putin has left.

Edited by Goredho
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12 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Lukashenko is the cackling Space Monkey next to Putin's Jabba the Hutt.

Lukashenko getting the Mussolini treatment may well be the next big development.  The people of Belarus hate him with a fury.  

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

I can't see puddy-tat only accepting taking the D and L areas.  he could get the whole thing but once he has Kiev, I believe he'll negotiate for half of it but with all the key areas his.   It sucks shit.  the only way out is the russian people.  we have to hope 30 years of relative freedom has done some good.

the rest of the world will have to make it fucking miserable for any russian, with any means, anywhere.  seems like we could see South America/Nazi redo.

The world will not accept a Ukraine that is half Russian, with all key areas Putin's.  It won't.  If that's Putin's line in the sand, then his forces are going to continue to bleed from an insurgency with some pretty effective fucking weapons.

And yes, the sanctions and ostracism will only get worse, not better, in that situation.

The Russian people are going to be isolated, frustrated, angry, and soon enough, hungry.  Putin's situation is unsustainable right now.  He MIGHT be able to negotiate for a solution that lets Russia keep Crimea, and allows for some sort of special autonomy and "protection" for Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.  But I don't think he'd be satisfied with that, so I don't see an off ramp here.

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1 minute ago, AUS-97HORN said:

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.    

Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbling of your love for a person and a country you never fucking heard of 8 days ago.

 

Most of us want to see Russia on its ass, but we dont need a god damned cheerleader screaming the same shit over and over.

Just be careful kicking that hornet nest.  Don’t want to read about more box pounding.  

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17 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

BB gun and firework wars. 

My dad lost sight in his left eye participating in one of these as a youngster.  He said he stood up to throw a firecracker and took a BB to the eye.  It probably kept him out of Vietnam, so he had that going for him.

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