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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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10 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Regardless what happens from here, the Magats are going to believe the election is rigged and Biden is an illegitimate president. Trump will probably continue to stoke the flames. We're looking at a high chance of political violence. 

Well, last night I flipped to Fox News for about 40 seconds (all I could take).  It was Laura Ingraham and she was interviewing Newt Gingrich.  Newt basically said that the election was being stolen from the president and that these votes aren’t real and the counting should be stopped.  Also, he said if they look at the real votes then Trump will win PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ, NV, NC.  She was nodding along. This is the problem with this country.  Disinformation like that being sent out to the masses is flat dangerous.  Now you will have 100’s of millions of people that think the Dems stole the election because Newt and Laura said so.  Add in whatever Hannity, Tucker and the others say and they are just stoking the flames for violence and destruction of our country.  On a lighter note, I played golf with some Trumpers yesterday and they understand Biden won and accepted it.  They were real quick to say at least we have 6-3 Supreme Court advantage and the Senate so Biden won’t do anything for 4 years and then we will take the White House again with someone like Ivanka.  

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Ralston just posted a good thread on what to expect from Nevada at 12 Eastern.  What will cause maximum heartburn is if Nevada releases all or most of the rural votes today without much of Clark County, which could cut or eliminate Biden's lead while we wait for Clark vote in the coming days. Not sure it will matter with how PN and GA are trending, but Nevada may not be called today (or tomorrow, etc.). 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

The networks must be waiting for Biden to actually get the lead to project the PA win because based on how they typicall announce other states they would have already done so.

I'm ok with this strategery.  Imagine the howling and screaming from dotard's cult if they called it while dotard still had a lead.

Of course that may be worth the entertainment.  Win-win.

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1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Well, last night I flipped to Fox News for about 40 seconds (all I could take).  It was Laura Ingraham and she was interviewing Newt Gingrich.  Newt basically said that the election was being stolen from the president and that these votes aren’t real and the counting should be stopped.  Also, he said if they look at the real votes then Trump will win PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ, NV, NC.  She was nodding along. This is the problem with this country.  Disinformation like that being sent out to the masses is flat dangerous.  Now you will have 100’s of millions of people that think the Dems stole the election because Newt and Laura said so.  Add in whatever Hannity, Tucker and the others say and they are just stoking the flames for violence and destruction of our country.  On a lighter note, I played golf with some Trumpers yesterday and they understand Biden won and accepted it.  They were real quick to say at least we have 6-3 Supreme Court advantage and the Senate so Biden won’t do anything for 4 years and then we will take the White House again with someone like Ivanka.  

Playing tomorrow and I expect a similar reaction.  

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2 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Ralston just posted a good thread on what to expect from Nevada at 12 Eastern.  What will cause maximum heartburn is if Nevada releases all or most of the rural votes today without much of Clark County, which could cut or eliminate Biden's lead while we wait for Clark vote in the coming days. Not sure it will matter with how PN and GA are trending, but Nevada may not be called today (or tomorrow, etc.). 

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Regardless what happens from here, the Magats are going to believe the election is rigged and Biden is an illegitimate president. Trump will probably continue to stoke the flames. We're looking at a high chance of political violence. 

One thing we've learned over the last four years is when MAGAts get upset they like to destroy their own shit.  Keuring machines, Nike shoes, etc.

Go for it.

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8 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Yeah - those votes from Laurens, Harris, and Putnam are not ideal.

yeah, but all three of those counties have low overall vote counts, and 2 of them already have greater than 98% reporting. (very few votes in them)

Edited by yoladu
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Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

One thing we've learned over the last four years is when MAGAts get upset they like to destroy their own shit.  Keuring machines, Nike shoes, etc.

Go for it.

It's like when you see hardcore NFL fans throwing their beer at their TV. Morons.   I guess it's better than destroying other people's shit though which is the alternative. 

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18 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

You just multiply the margins by outstanding votes to get the expected pick up right? Assuming the remaining ballots track the previous margin, though it's possible it would be a bit better becuase the margins include election day votes that trend Trump. 

If the current margins are accounted for here (which is highly unlikely because the VBMs skew D at a higher rate), then Biden nets +6145.  Gonna be really fucking close.

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6 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

I'd argue this was going to happen with either party winning the election. General distrust in Trump, general distrust with media, complete distrust in our voting system and how we collect/count votes.

The president screamed for months that the election was going to be rigged. 

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3 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

If the current margins are accounted for here (which is highly unlikely because the VBMs skew D at a higher rate), then Biden nets +6145.  Gonna be really fucking close.

If you're talking about GA, then a net of 6,145 isn't going to cut it.  He's trailing by 18,500+ right now.

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3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

The president screamed for months that the election was going to be rigged. 

Do you think that had Trump won that Democrats would be defending the integrity of the voting system and the legitimacy of Trump's second term while urging people to stay calm?

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61k doesn't include the provisional ballots

Georgia- "We also don’t have a number on the provisional ballot count, but we’re in the territory where that’s a potentially crucial factor. And if you’re wondering, our election night forecaster, the needle, did assume some number of provisional ballots would break heavily for Mr. Biden, helping to make him a very narrow favorite to win the state."

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1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

If you're talking about GA, then a net of 6,145 isn't going to cut it.  He's trailing by 18,500+ right now.

I played with higher margins and got Biden needing an increase of .25 in the margin for each county to net what he needs. That's something like 85-15 in Fulton county. If those are the votes outstanding, I don't see how Biden makes up the deficit. Of course, I probably fucked it up so take it with a grain of salt. The data wizzes on twitter are more optimistic. 

 

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Nate Cohn on Arizona

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In general, the Election Day drop-off mail ballots are usually better for Democrats. If those ballots weren’t included in Wednesday’s count, that’s good news for Mr. Biden.

No matter how you cut the data, it’s hard not to arrive at the conclusion that Mr. Biden’s lead will withstand the late vote. But there’s also enough uncertainty with the number and kind of ballots left that it would be a mistake to be too sure about it. Certainly, it is too soon to project the state for Mr. Biden.

 

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3 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Fox News this morning paraphrasing. Trump did not lose he just got beat so he does not have to feel like a loser. Are they trying to put his mind at ease since they can read the tea leaves in Pennsylvania?

Trump doesn't lose, he just runs out of ballots. Whoop!

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5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I just can't help but note that the secretaries of state of both Michigan and Arizona are very, very attractive.  I'm wondering if I shouldn't go to the next secretaries of state convention.

Benson is pretty nice and has a fairly amazing resume.  

I think you may need to reconsider on Arizona.

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4 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Do you think that had Trump won that Democrats would be defending the integrity of the voting system and the legitimacy of Trump's second term while urging people to stay calm?

lol, yea please show us the hundreds of Hillary's tweets alleging voter fraud. I'll wait. 

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Nate Cohn on Nevada

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We didn’t get any new ballots, and Mr. Biden still holds a lead. The remaining vote: mail ballots received on Election Day and provisionals. There’s reason to expect these will pad Mr. Biden’s lead: Democrats were outpacing Republicans by a two-to-one margin in the state’s mail ballot returns, and provisionals lean Democratic just about everywhere. But we’ll wait to be sure. We should get more data today.

 

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3 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Do you think that had Trump won that Democrats would be defending the integrity of the voting system and the legitimacy of Trump's second term while urging people to stay calm?

Yes. They'd for damn sure be pissed off at the electoral college system (again), but they wouldn't be crying fraud and siccing their lackeys and laughable "militias" on all those mean ol' states that count all of their votes.

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Also, and this is why I am feeling very pessimistic....    If this supposed swing for Biden where he ends up with a 200-300k lead is going to happen, we should be seeing more significant swings.   Since last night, there has been a very modest 40k swing or so with only about 10k of that since around 8:00.   

There "could" be anywhere from 400-700k votes out there but with Allegheny saying they are pretty much done (and that was only about 30-35k) how do we get to +200k for Biden.    

The numbers need to start moving and pretty drastically or this is not going to happen.

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10 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Do you think that had Trump won that Democrats would be defending the integrity of the voting system and the legitimacy of Trump's second term while urging people to stay calm?

Well, yeah, they've done it up to now in every election and even in places like Georgia, where Stacey Abrams really did get cheated.  

Edited by Mdhorn
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5 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Fox News this morning paraphrasing. Trump did not lose he just got beat so he does not have to feel like a loser. Are they trying to put his mind at ease since they can read the tea leaves in Pennsylvania?

How are losing and getting beat different things?

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