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Week 6, 2023: Red River shootout.


Wulaw Horn

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35 minutes ago, NoName said:

early downs are a HUGE opportunity vs this OU offense. the red boxes are their SOS per FEI. OU has not been efficient in early downs. the teams they are being grouped with offensively in FEI (Washington, USC, Oregon, Michigan, UGA, Tenn) all have played schedules that are near to worse than OUs and look where those teams currently sit in this early down efficiency stat - Washington at 1, Oregon at 4, USC at 5, Tenn at 27, Michigan at 34, UGA at 37 (with a new QB!) then there is OU at 42. they should be WAY higher based on their SOS so far.

Keep in mind that group and the SOS they have played, going to do some comparison as we go through these stats.

image.thumb.png.eac999c2e95b40c040be307056ecf07a.png

their defense looks good on the same measure - but again they absolutely should because they have played a poor schedule lol

the Texas DL has the opportunity to win the game, OU is NOT good running the ball (99th in yards before contact on designed rushes, for comparison Bama is 107th, Rice is 133, Kansas is 38th , Baylor is 74th - Texas is 46th avg like half a yard more than OU per play) - again this is on a bad schedule. Oregon is #6, 2 other teams with baaaaaaaaad schedules in AF and Maryland are in the top 10. Tenn is #11. USC is 23. Michigan is 45.

ECKEL is a stat that looks at quality drives (big play TD or first down inside opponents 40 yard line) - Texas has the 6th most "game control" (68.9%), despite playing a much better schedule than OU (12th at 66%) - but again Michigan, Penn St, Oregon, Kansas State all rank much higher than OU on these stats showing they are more efficient/

Points per ECKEL looks at finishing Drives by the defense - Texas is #1 here. look the Texas defense is really, really, really fucking good. OU is #3.

this is all to say: OU should be better than they are statistically, especially because they have played Gabriel a lot in some of these blowouts (why is your injury prone QB playing when the score is 45-17 vs Tulsa? why is he playing in the 2nd half when you are up 47-20 vs Iowa State? he literally played every drive until the last one vs ISU with <6 min in the game) and especially when compared to some of the teams who have played comparable trash schedules.

going into some more stats, ESPN's FPI has a measure called game control rank  (Reflects chance that an average Top 25 team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule.)

look at the top 5 and their current SOS vs Texas:

image.thumb.png.f30704a696064bd9b2eb2eb160201737.png

AVGWP is Team's average in-game win probability rank adjusted for chance that an average FBS team would control games from start to end the way this team did, given the schedule. OU is #6 there, but all of the top 10 in that measure have played TRASH schedules and basically they should win vs those bad teams. Texas is #13 in that measure despite playing FPI's #16 schedule so far. the only other team in the top 30 of AVGWP who also has played a schedule even in the top 50 is ND at 10, A&M at 40 and tOSU at 50.

folks, Texas is good.

fuck OU.

Texas by a million.

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Heck of a post. Bravo. Would read again.

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5 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

I like the analysis overall, but I think this part is aggressively silly. Gabriel played only the first half against Arkansas State. His last snap against Tulsa came with 3:23 to go in the 3rd quarter up 28 until they scored. Ewers' last snap vs Rice was with :30 to go in 3Q to go up 37-3. How is that different?

Gabriel's last snap against ISU was with 8:41 to go in the 4th Q, but that drive started in the 3rd quarter. Literally no one is pulling their QB in a conference game in the 3rd Q up 27. In fact, Ewers took the field in a drive starting in the 4th Q against Baylor with the score 38-6. Ewers is also running for TDs with 5:00 to go in the game to go up 40-14 on Kansas. 

I understand injury risk to an extent, but you also need to ensure your offensive unit is cohesive and getting reps together. Also, why is Gabriel injury-prone? He had a broken clavicle at UCF and a concussion last year, in 5 seasons of ball. Why isn't Ewers injury-prone when he missed multiple games in a season and a half of action? Shouldn't Texas not put him in up 32 in the 4th or have him running the ball with 5:00 to go in a game that's over?

my point stands. when you are playing your QB that late in games that are blow outs you should have better stats. basically everyone with that 100ish+ SOS does per any of the advanced stats and OFEI. no clue how much they are playing their QBs in those blowouts but if they are flipping to their backups and still smoking those bad teams shouldn't OU?

the other thing thats different is that he was absolutely in there to run the score up on Tulsa Here were the OU drives for that game: TD, TD, TD, TD, INT, FG, TD, TD, TD, TD, Punt, Victory Formation. he wasn't needed in that game any more than he was against Ark State, you can waive your hands about offense gelling and thats why he needed to play but one would also think after what happened vs TCU last year they probably wouldn't want to have to turn to a backup vs Texas.

Texas was up 19 in the Kansas game at that point fwiw and he shouldn't have been in at that point vs Baylor - if it makes any better it was an 11 play drive with 2 pass attempts. in the Tulsa game Gabriel's last drive was 7 plays and 5 pass attempts. vs ISU it was 14 plays and 5 pass attempts lol

calling him injury prone is fair and that's wrong and on me. i forgot that 20 was a COVID year so he didn't miss games then at UCF, he did in 21 with the clavicle and he did in 22 with the concussion and that was it. not like he has a nagging hamstring or ankle issue.
 

 

 

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I agree a little on cherry picking but this isn't some random date that only benefits one side like aggy does. This goes back almost 70 years. Which covers a lot of the modern day. As even as you can get for the last 68 years is pretty cool.
Yes, it will be something to pull out for our new mouth breathing SEC yokels who think bloU has been dominating the series even during the plastic helmet years...and also as a reminder to aggy of what a real rivalry looks like.
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16 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

A few team notes from OB

  Hide contents

(Anwar)

* I reported on Thursday morning that Texas tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders was participating in practice this week, which meant there was optimism he would play this weekend. A few hours later, Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian said Sanders was cleared to play against Oklahoma after sustaining a foot injury during a win against Kansas. I was told Sanders may not be at 100 percent, but people inside the building believe he can help the Longhorns against Oklahoma on Saturday.

* The same people are not as optimistic about cornerback Ryan Watts playing this week. As of Thursday, everyone inside the building had their fingers crossed, but he is definitely a game-time decision.

(Note from Ketchum: I had a source on Thursday also give a pessimistic view of Watts playing this week as well.)

* Texas football coach Steve Sarkisian and his staff spent the week stressing to their players to be ready to weather the storm on Saturday. I was told the staff told the Longhorns to expect the unexpected. They have prepared their team for several potential scenarios. I cannot share the game plan but know Sarkisian and his staff are ready for different looks on offense and defense.

* Overall, they have emphasized remaining calm in case Oklahoma catches them off-guard. They have told players to weather the storm, do not panic, trust each other, and know in-game adjustments will be made if necessary.

* Multiple people inside the building believe Saturday could be a huge day for this defensive line. They are cautiously optimistic.

* A lot of people have asked if Johntay Cook II should receive more playing time. I was told the staff believes Jordan Whittington is reliable, a blocking asset, and a special teams contributor. Plus, Whittington is a senior leader on Sarkisian’s team. One source told me, “There’s no need for Sarkisian to make a change. Think about it … who will Johntay compete against next year? Xavier will be gone. Adonai might leave. He’s the only freshman receiver getting real playing time. Johntay gets to learn without any pressure this year and he’s the man next year. What’s the problem?”

* I chatted with an NFL source this week, and he shared an interesting nugget.

There is at least one NFL general manager who believes Jonathon Brooks is the nation’s best running back. Quite honestly, I was not prepared to hear that this week. That person believes Brooks should enter the NFL draft after this season (his opinion, not mine) because the league covets running backs without a lot of miles. Brooks redshirted after his freshman season and this is his third year at Texas. More importantly, Brooks is excelling during his first season as a starter. Just file that nugget away for future use.

*****

(Alex)

* I was texting with an NFL source with very good knowledge of Texas NFL draft prospects on Thursday, and told him that we are hearing rumors that the Texas staff seems to be starting to think that a big NIL deal will be in order to keep junior nose tackle Byron Murphy on campus after his outstanding start to 2023. His response: "They better be, but I'm not sure it's gonna happen. He's going to be a Top 75 pick (in the 2024 NFL Draft)."

* I asked the same source about fellow DL T'Vondre Sweat, who's having as big -- or what is at least perceived as -- possibly an even bigger breakout 2023 campaign at Texas. Surprisingly, I was told that as of now the NFL is higher on Murphy than Sweat, "but Sweat won't go any later than Round 4, with room to move up from there."

*****

(Ketch)

A few notes to get us started....

* I spoke with an OU insider on Thursday and per a conversation he had with an OU coach earlier in the week, there is an awareness to the pause that the 3-3-5 Flyover look has given the Longhorns since Steve Sarkisian arrived and that it's part of what OU will have planned for Saturday. "It's not what Venables really does a lot of the time and I have the sense that they don't want to go too far away from what they feel like they do best, but (the OU staff) knows that this might be a kitchen sink kind of game and I think you'll see them try to throw curve balls at Texas in every drive in the first half. It'll likely be something they throw at Texas, for sure."

* There's a general sense from the OU side that OU has been concealing its playbook on both sides of the ball all season coming into this game. It remains to be seen how true that is, but folks close to the program believe it.

* The same OU insider told me this week that if Dillon Gabriel has a weakness that can be exploited this week, it might come in being able to disguise pre-snap what Texas is doing from a coverage standpoint. "His eyes sometimes lie to him," the source said. 'That's when he gets into trouble."

* OU has a lot of faith in its tackles winning their battles against Barryn Sorrell and the rest of the Texas ends/edge players. (Walter) Rouse has been very good this season. I think he'll show up big on Saturday, but if he struggles, that's a bad sign across the board because if he isn't very good against this Texas front four, I'm not sure who will be. It starts with him."

* Finally, if there's a match-up to really zero in on, watch OU fifth-year senior right guard McKade Mettauer against everyone that lines up across from him on Saturday. "The best thing I can say about him is that his pass blocking is probably better than his run blocking. We need an upgrade there next season, but he's what we have right now. The problem is that his pass blocking is only ok."

 

wow way too much to digest with zooms going on  - excellent post thank you

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15 hours ago, ousux said:
19 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:
.d27d3ec42e435b07aab9b83021c6127c.jpg

Kinda cool, but also kinda aggyish cherry picking a starting date. We lead all time, but gotta restore the rightful order to keep bloU from tying...or heaven forbid..you know the rest.

very aggy starting date

thieves were in the middle of their still-record 47-game winning streak that ended in november '58 when domer won in norman 7-0

the measurement should begin after that streak ended (substract 2 thief wins) or at the beginning of the streak (add 2 thief wins) if the mid-50s are for some reason the aggytarget for measurement

there are multiple other starting points: the beginning of fair park as the permsite, start of the AP era, end of the war, etc.

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19 minutes ago, NoName said:

my point stands. when you are playing your QB that late in games that are blow outs you should have better stats. basically everyone with that 100ish+ SOS does per any of the advanced stats and OFEI. no clue how much they are playing their QBs in those blowouts but if they are flipping to their backups and still smoking those bad teams shouldn't OU?

the other thing thats different is that he was absolutely in there to run the score up on Tulsa Here were the OU drives for that game: TD, TD, TD, TD, INT, FG, TD, TD, TD, TD, Punt, Victory Formation. he wasn't needed in that game any more than he was against Ark State, you can waive your hands about offense gelling and thats why he needed to play but one would also think after what happened vs TCU last year they probably wouldn't want to have to turn to a backup vs Texas.

Texas was up 19 in the Kansas game at that point fwiw and he shouldn't have been in at that point vs Baylor - if it makes any better it was an 11 play drive with 2 pass attempts. in the Tulsa game Gabriel's last drive was 7 plays and 5 pass attempts. vs ISU it was 14 plays and 5 pass attempts lol

calling him injury prone is fair and that's wrong and on me. i forgot that 20 was a COVID year so he didn't miss games then at UCF, he did in 21 with the clavicle and he did in 22 with the concussion and that was it. not like he has a nagging hamstring or ankle issue.
 

 

 

After we’ve beaten a team we kill the 4th quarter by running the ball downhill at a stacked box. Just ask Alabama about that. We don’t try to build anyone up with empty stats like Riley and Venables like to do.

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6 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Cross Posting,

 

M5vqFk.gif

Pretty funny CSB this morning:

Quan was on the morning show with Bobby and Gerry at the Texas Exes golf tourney. He introduced himself as "Lindy Holmes' Daddy" to the crowd, then went on to tell a story about how he has tried to speak with Holmes at a few events over the years and Holmes refuses to talk with him. So he went and asked his agent why the guy won't talk to him, and the agent said it is because every year he gets that clip sent to him not only from the Texas side, but from the OU side as well. He hates it. 

<< insert FUPM Curse picture here >>  Lulz.

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5 hours ago, immamac said:

From who exactly? I've been pushing his bmf campaign hard and we've raised a mere $710 I am reaching into all the ad Rev and tailgate donations and putting them in his pot. People aren't participating in NIL and the big Corp stuff is for people with pr teams and agents. Not kids from halletsville. 

Rich people aren't taking care of Brooks. You guys are. 

 

I'm in for $50.

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21 minutes ago, NoName said:

my point stands. when you are playing your QB that late in games that are blow outs you should have better stats. basically everyone with that 100ish+ SOS does per any of the advanced stats and OFEI. no clue how much they are playing their QBs in those blowouts but if they are flipping to their backups and still smoking those bad teams shouldn't OU?

the other thing thats different is that he was absolutely in there to run the score up on Tulsa Here were the OU drives for that game: TD, TD, TD, TD, INT, FG, TD, TD, TD, TD, Punt, Victory Formation. he wasn't needed in that game any more than he was against Ark State, you can waive your hands about offense gelling and thats why he needed to play but one would also think after what happened vs TCU last year they probably wouldn't want to have to turn to a backup vs Texas.

Texas was up 19 in the Kansas game at that point fwiw and he shouldn't have been in at that point vs Baylor - if it makes any better it was an 11 play drive with 2 pass attempts. in the Tulsa game Gabriel's last drive was 7 plays and 5 pass attempts. vs ISU it was 14 plays and 5 pass attempts lol

calling him injury prone is fair and that's wrong and on me. i forgot that 20 was a COVID year so he didn't miss games then at UCF, he did in 21 with the clavicle and he did in 22 with the concussion and that was it. not like he has a nagging hamstring or ankle issue.
 

 

 

You guys should also go listen to the "Everyone gets a trophy" podcast this week.

They really don't talk about the above all that much because it is largely irrelevant.

One of the main themes is that football is a pass/fail endeavor. In other words, it does not matter whether you can run up the score on Ark St. Or Tulsa because they can't stop what you are doing. That is a fail or a pass if you are OU. What does matter is if you can do that against SMU or Cincinnati or Texas.

Further, the relationship is not linear. For example, if Texas had played Arky State and "only" won 38-0. One cannot imply  that OUs offense is almost twice as good.

I am kind of fumbling the analogy, but listen to the podcast to get a better idea.

The other main theme was the comparison of various units and their differences in quality. You can mask or get away with small stuff for some games due to timing and having a canceling of a small advantage with one unit comparison with a small disadvantage with another unit.

What you don't want is a large direct difference. Like Texas interior d Line v OU interior o line. In this case it is major strength v. Relatively big weakness.

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Just now, Jiggy-Z said:

You guys should also go listen to the "Everyone gets a trophy" podcast this week.

They really don't talk about the above all that much because it is largely irrelevant.

One of the main themes is that football is a pass/fail endeavor. In other words, it does not matter whether you can run up the score on Ark St. Or Tulsa because they can't stop what you are doing. That is a fail or a pass if you are OU. What does matter is if you can do that against SMU or Cincinnati or Texas.

Further, the relationship is not linear. For example, if Texas had played Arky State and "only" won 38-0. One cannot imply  that OUs offense is almost twice as good.

I am kind of fumbling the analogy, but listen to the podcast to get a better idea.

The other main theme was the comparison of various units and their differences in quality. You can mask or get away with small stuff for some games due to timing and having a canceling of a small advantage with one unit comparison with a small disadvantage with another unit.

What you don't want is a large direct difference. Like Texas interior d Line v OU interior o line. In this case it is major strength v. Relatively big weakness.

Yep. Sark doesn't coach games to score points. He coaches to win every game on the schedule.

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1 minute ago, ztejas said:

Yep. Sark doesn't coach games to score points. He coaches to win every game on the schedule.

Also, at the root of just about any massive 60 point blowout, there are going to be some defensive and st tds or ridiculously good field positions set up by the above.

In the case of Ark State, their defense was just horrible and actually their qbs take good care of the ball.

All other qbs OU has faced have at least 5 ints on the season.

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48 minutes ago, ztejas said:

@immamac will y'all cut him a check if we get it to 5k or 10k?

Also can y'all throw a mention of this dono train on twitter?

The posts he's making on Twitter and Instagram aren't free. I've been paying him without the funding from this. I can make a mention of it, but Twitter seems like it's full of complete morons who don't understand NIL or don't trust surly because they don't post here etc. 

I want to get him 50k total through the this, a Corp deal or deals and that meet and greet (we will adjust pricing) 

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1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

very aggy starting date

thieves were in the middle of their still-record 47-game winning streak that ended in november '58 when domer won in norman 7-0

the measurement should begin after that streak ended (substract 2 thief wins) or at the beginning of the streak (add 2 thief wins) if the mid-50s are for some reason the aggytarget for measurement

there are multiple other starting points: the beginning of fair park as the permsite, start of the AP era, end of the war, etc.

I think y'all are being very nit picky about this. This series is dead even for the last almost 70 years. That is what they are getting at. That covers a ton of the modern era of football. Also pointing out this is an actual rivalry and not lopsided at all in the grand scheme of things. This isn't UT/aggy where one side is obsessed with the other and needs to find very specific time references to try and hide this fact. The past 68 years covers a ton of what any of us have witnessed. 

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55 minutes ago, immamac said:

The posts he's making on Twitter and Instagram aren't free. I've been paying him without the funding from this. I can make a mention of it, but Twitter seems like it's full of complete morons who don't understand NIL or don't trust surly because they don't post here etc. 

I want to get him 50k total through the this, a Corp deal or deals and that meet and greet (we will adjust pricing) 

Got it.

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I know people mock my predictions but mock this… ugly 10 point win for us tomorrow, and I think we fully put it together after that. This team is winnining the big 12 and going to the CFP where I think we have a real shot to win it all. No team in the country looks *that much* better than us. Get fucked America 🤘🏼

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17 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I know people mock my predictions but mock this… ugly 10 point win for us tomorrow, and I think we fully put it together after that. This team is winnining the big 12 and going to the CFP where I think we have a real shot to win it all. No team in the country looks *that much* better than us. Get fucked America 🤘🏼

Eddie Murphy GIF by Coming to America

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2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

very aggy starting date

thieves were in the middle of their still-record 47-game winning streak that ended in november '58 when domer won in norman 7-0

the measurement should begin after that streak ended (substract 2 thief wins) or at the beginning of the streak (add 2 thief wins) if the mid-50s are for some reason the aggytarget for measurement

there are multiple other starting points: the beginning of fair park as the permsite, start of the AP era, end of the war, etc.

Whoever made that picked that year because it made for a cool 33-33-3 series record. Nothing more, nothing less.

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24 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I know people mock my predictions but mock this… ugly 10 point win for us tomorrow, and I think we fully put it together after that. This team is winnining the big 12 and going to the CFP where I think we have a real shot to win it all. No team in the country looks *that much* better than us. Get fucked America 🤘🏼

well, there's always next year

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30 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I know people mock my predictions but mock this… ugly 10 point win for us tomorrow, and I think we fully put it together after that. This team is winnining the big 12 and going to the CFP where I think we have a real shot to win it all. No team in the country looks *that much* better than us. Get fucked America 🤘🏼

Welp, great season guys.

Angry Aubrey Plaza GIF by Parks and Recreation

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33 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I know people mock my predictions but mock this… ugly 10 point win for us tomorrow, and I think we fully put it together after that. This team is winnining the big 12 and going to the CFP where I think we have a real shot to win it all. No team in the country looks *that much* better than us. Get fucked America 🤘🏼

eat shit GIF

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