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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Yes, just the river and immediately adjacent in the SHFA, but not all or most of the camp, right?

Oh I see the address you put in. Again, that's the nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake.  The Camp that was destroyed is north where the striped part meets the blue part, just south of the River and on either side of that creek.  It's not labeled on Google Maps (and is not searchable any longer oddly) but here about where it says "Edmunson Creek" is about the center of it.

 

Screenshot 2025-07-05 6.47.03 PM.png

One of my best friends growing up's mother grew up in a really cool house right around there on Hwy 39 and was a Mystic camper herself I guess in the 50s.  I used to know the area pretty well, but it has been quite some time now and things have gotten hazy.

But yeah, the FEMA map was kind of spot on as far as Cypress Lake being out of the flood zone.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Posted

The national coverage of this tragedy has been terrible. News Nation interrupted the presser 3 times to go to commercial. I’m not sure if CNN or Fox News even carried the presser live. 
 

KSAT has done a really good job locally. Hopefully they can get us some answers. They pressed pushed hard during the press conference. It’s refreshing to see that.

 

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Posted
So we need just a little bit of help. I’m trying to accompany my daughter and grandkids back from the San Angelo area to Round Rock tomorrow. I’m trying to figure out the safest path back, but the problem is that both San Saba and Llano are showing extensive flooding. So I don’t know if it’s clear on 190 east thru San Saba. It seems like 29 thru Llano is toast. Thoughts?


190 is open through SS now.
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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Oh I see the address you put in. Again, that's the nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake.  The Camp that was destroyed is north where the striped part meets the blue part, just south of the River and on either side of that creek.

Ah sorry. Didn't think of that - used their mailing address.

Edited by Chopper
Posted
2 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The national coverage of this tragedy has been terrible. News Nation interrupted the presser 3 times to go to commercial. I’m not sure if CNN or Fox News even carried the presser live. 
 

KSAT has done a really good job locally. Hopefully they can get us some answers. They pressed pushed hard during the press conference. It’s refreshing to see that.

 

I checked out of ABC earlier when the talking head threw it over to the on spot reporter in “Careville”. 

Posted
22 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Just got the dreaded text. Doesn’t appear that my friend’s girl survived. I think they found her body.

Awful.

I can't imagine they will find them all. A friend of mine lost his wife in a torrential river flood and they never found her body. She went into the Brazos at I-10 near Brookshire/Sealy. The sheriff told him she could be a few hundred yards away in the woods or a field, or she could be washed out into the Gulf. Said he'd seen it all when it came to the power of water.

These poor families.

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Posted

I'm sorry I don't have anything to add except how awful I feel about all of this.  One thing that is clear, though - our statistical models are chasing climate change and unfortunately appear to not be equipped to catch up.  We're using what is called Atlas 14 (NOAA's newest prediction model for precipitation) and it falls way short of the rainfall totals we're seeing in localized areas. 

Is it possible that these events are way outside the normal probabilities of exceedance?  Yes, it's possible.  It's not statistically likely given the frequency of exceedance, though.

As I was telling a licensed engineer who was revising a (500 year!) floodplain the other day, you're just weighing the odds of a larger event against the cost of increasing fill/conveyance.  It's ultimately not going to matter if the design storm is inadequate; the fault will lie entirely on whoever is promulgating a maximum exceedance event as less than its actual volume.  

Engineers can only do so much with the data provided, and climate change is making it so the backwards looking statistical models are just not adequate in a lot of cases.

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Posted

I don’t disagree with anyone upset about the noaa cuts, but haven’t we learned that despite that the forecasts and warnings were made, they were just not heeded? This seems like more of a local government failure at this point.
Not that I even feel like assigning blame at this point, a very tragic situation with a very small margin of error for making decisions. I know that people could’ve done better and they will have to live with that. I just hope lessons are learned and that those affected can find peace and comfort. I know the former might be too much to ask for.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I'm sorry I don't have anything to add except how awful I feel about all of this.  One thing that is clear, though - our statistical models are chasing climate change and unfortunately appear to not be equipped to catch up.  We're using what is called Atlas 14 (NOAA's newest prediction model for precipitation) and it falls way short of the rainfall totals we're seeing in localized areas. 

Is it possible that these events are way outside the normal probabilities of exceedance?  Yes, it's possible.  It's not statistically likely given the frequency of exceedance, though.

As I was telling a licensed engineer who was revising a (500 year!) floodplain the other day, you're just weighing the odds of a larger event against the cost of increasing fill/conveyance.  It's ultimately not going to matter if the design storm is inadequate; the fault will lie entirely on whoever is promulgating a maximum exceedance event as less than its actual volume.  

Engineers can only do so much with the data provided, and climate change is making it so the backwards looking statistical models are just not adequate in a lot of cases.

Do you or he think this is likely to happen again?

Posted
16 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The national coverage of this tragedy has been terrible. News Nation interrupted the presser 3 times to go to commercial. I’m not sure if CNN or Fox News even carried the presser live. 
 

Do you blame them? It sounds like it was 25 minutes of political handjobs and was sparse on info and facts.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, gurt said:

I don’t disagree with anyone upset about the noaa cuts, but haven’t we learned that despite that the forecasts and warnings were made, they were just not heeded? This seems like more of a local government failure at this point.
Not that I even feel like assigning blame at this point, a very tragic situation with a very small margin of error for making decisions. I know that people could’ve done better and they will have to live with that. I just hope lessons are learned and that those affected can find peace and comfort. I know the former might be too much to ask for.

An extremely reasonable post for Surly!  Kudos.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, royiv said:

Do you blame them? It sounds like it was 25 minutes of political handjobs and was sparse on info and facts.

Agreed. The KSAT guy asked a real question and the state official immediately threw the Kerr County Judge under the bus. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, gurt said:

I don’t disagree with anyone upset about the noaa cuts, but haven’t we learned that despite that the forecasts and warnings were made, they were just not heeded? This seems like more of a local government failure at this point.
Not that I even feel like assigning blame at this point, a very tragic situation with a very small margin of error for making decisions. I know that people could’ve done better and they will have to live with that. I just hope lessons are learned and that those affected can find peace and comfort. I know the former might be too much to ask for.

Yeah it seems the message was delivered by NWS/NOAA and in time.  You can quibble about whether it was "serious" enough, as if predictions of 4-8" when 10+ came would have really made much difference.  It did say "life-threatening flash flooding events."

The message didn't get out and wasn't heeded.

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Posted
Just now, billfromlaketravis said:

Agreed. The KSAT guy asked a real question and the state official immediately threw the Kerr County Judge under the bus. 

Was that the, "But it was only sprinkling" response?

Posted
13 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

And so are you? 

Political decisions kill lots a people everyday, from not cleaning out forests in California and when a fire starts, it burns because of lawsuits to slashing budgets. The thing happening is the news, the reasons are also news, then going "this party doing this thing cause they hate whatever, and led to this disaster." Is opinion and not news but politics.  

The stupid burns!

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Posted
Just now, workswithseed said:

Do you or he think this is likely to happen again?

Short answer, yes.  Given the increase in extreme precipitation I am actually concerned that our PMP (probable maximum precipitation) models are likely to be undersized.  Not to be flippant but those could affect hundreds of thousands instead of hundreds of people.  A PMF (probable maximum flood) is used to evaluate dam safety.  If the PMF is not sufficiently conservative, the spillway will be undersized.  Then a lot of people would be at risk. 

Lake Travis, thank goodness, is protected by a dam that is so over designed I don't think there is much risk (and if it ever reaches flood stage it's game over anyway).

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Posted
1 hour ago, bolverk said:

From the NYTimes:

Scenes from Camp Mystic a day after the deadly floods.

 Mystic Dining Hall, the opposite side would be upriver, and the open side is pointed down river. The River normal elevation is ~ 1826' above sea level (asl), and the ground level adjacent to the dining hall ~ 1842' asl, or 16' above the river level. The floor of the dining hall is ~ 20' above the river level.  A building missing one entire side wall, with debris in front of it.

The dining hall is in the foreground. It looks like they partially covered the tennis courts. The cluster of buildings towards the NW/4 of the photo are the girls cabins. They are shown better in the screen shot below.

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

An aerial view of Camp Mystic, near a muddy river.
 

The building on the left under the trees in the back facing the dining hall is one of the girls cabins across the road. Everything behind that road is an 1850+ (asl), or ~25' above the river level.
Fallen trees trail into brown floodwaters in the foreground, with more debris and a camp building in the background.
 

I deleted the NY Times words and added my own.

My updated screen shot based on information in this thread. (Same disclaimer, relying on Google Earth and info in this thread.)

The map is inverted to match the pictures above. Up on the screen shot is facing almost due south.

The orange polygon is the 1850' and below asl elevation, the older part of Camp Mystic that is the lower elevation.

The South Fork of the Guadalupe River flows right to left along the bottom of the screen shot, with Cypress Creek entering from the top.

image.thumb.png.c79f9ccdcc8a1918c3e6446a3fb29b75.png

 

Zoomed in w/o the 1850' polygon.

All of the house icons are the girls cabins, I think. If the younger girls were in the cabin closest to the river (in elevation), that would be "Twins 1 & 2". These are the only cabins at or below the 1850' above sea level (asl) elevation, 20-25' higher than the normal river level, and ~ 370 ' from waters edge. The "Bug House" cabin is closer to the river, and the road and all the cabins in a line are higher than 1850' asl, +25' above waters edge.

The "Twins 1&2" cabins are within sight of the office, adjacent to the other cabins, and close to the dining hall & rec center, all of which seem reasonable. Unfortunately, there does not appear to be an easy way to run uphill.

It is hard to imagine the water rising that quickly, that there was not enough time to evacuate safely. 

So sad. 

Screenshot2025-07-05at6_27_29PM.thumb.png.4a4a0003cb6f49b92b3d6fdc0804d1e1.png

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Posted

For armybrat or any other Taylor-ites, this is 366 at Rowe Valley looking toward Hwy 29.  29 at Circleville was closed, probably everyone from there to Mankin’s crossing is cut off from going anywhere 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Rip76 said:

Man this is all just so much to take in.  After living through Harvey, other Hurricanes, and numerous flood events it’s all so tiring (even when you’re not directly involved. 

Other than the unbearable heat most summers, I love this state and its people.  It’s so heartbreaking to see just story after story of loss and sadness.  Then to see good news sprinkle through just to give a little lift.  I can’t imagine what the people who have lost loved ones are going through.

It just doesn’t seem fair at all.

To Texas and all of you.  Hope I can help other than monetarily.

 

 

IMG_9681.jpeg

Sorry.  I mean other than just monetarily.

I’ve got some vacation time left.

Posted
6 minutes ago, UTCzech III said:

For armybrat or any other Taylor-ites, this is 366 at Rowe Valley looking toward Hwy 29.  29 at Circleville was closed, probably everyone from there to Mankin’s crossing is cut off from going anywhere 

 

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IMG_4599.jpeg

 

go ducks !

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

And so are you? 

Political decisions kill lots a people everyday, from not cleaning out forests in California and when a fire starts, it burns because of lawsuits to slashing budgets. The thing happening is the news, the reasons are also news, then going "this party doing this thing cause they hate whatever, and led to this disaster." Is opinion and not news but politics.  

So all threads in the daily Texan should be only news from reputable sources? What about condolences? Expressing sadness and frustration? Grief? What about extrapolating into the future based on news? Because none of that is news either, and yet it’s rampant in this and every other thread and the only things people want to regulate are all of the above, but ONLY when they tie directly to political decisions. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted
7 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

SIAP

 

 

43 lost souls. hopefully they have 100% recovery 

prayers for all their families, friends and loved ones. they'll all be greatly missed 

double prayers her for those that knew the deceased 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼

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Posted
1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

You Sir are a penis wrinkle. Will that work? 

Keep the politics off this. That all. 

Was the expert responsible for sending out alerts to central Texas in case of severe weather events, with 32 years of experience, who retired specifically ahead of noaa budget cuts, news? Can we talk about how that may have impacted this? 

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Posted
57 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Just got the dreaded text. Doesn’t appear that my friend’s girl survived. I think they found her body.

I'm so sorry to hear about you and your friend's loss.  This is a nightmare.

 

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