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CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk


Mrs Whiggins

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15 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

I am anti-thinking-about-voting-consequences-of-COVID.  I think it leads to way too much cynicism and very little good.  The total deaths are a fifth of a percent of the country.  Not a lot of elections are decided on those margins, and that is even assuming every single one of the deaths represents a voter of the same party.

In general I'd agree, but:

12 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I guarantee you it's hurting Republicans in Florida.  The gap there is small enough where 50K - 60K covid deaths has the chance to swing elections.

I think places like Florida, Georgia, and Arizona would be interesting to look at. It won't matter most everywhere else. Maybe North Carolina as well. 

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39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'd take his comment with a large grain of salt.

That said, I'd be very curious to see the numbers and if any tangible damage is being done to the hard core GOP electorate. This would require a cross section of voting records and public health data that is highly unlikely to occur due to (legitimate) privacy concerns. 

31 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I guarantee you it's hurting Republicans in Florida.  The gap there is small enough where 50K - 60K covid deaths has the chance to swing elections.

Yep, definitely Florida.  

 

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1 hour ago, The Dog said:

I'd take his comment with a large grain of salt.

That said, I'd be very curious to see the numbers and if any tangible damage is being done to the hard core GOP electorate. This would require a cross section of voting records and public health data that is highly unlikely to occur due to (legitimate) privacy concerns. 

I'd guess that unvaccinated Dem voters are also more likely to be young, if for no other reason that Dems tend to be younger.  So, it is likely the actual deaths are skewed more heavily at Republicans than what the vaccinated percentages would suggest. 

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15 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I'd guess that unvaccinated Dem voters are also more likely to be young, if for no other reason that Dems tend to be younger.  So, it is likely the actual deaths are skewed more heavily at Republicans than what the vaccinated percentages would suggest. 

Could be.  In 2019, it appears 19% of registered Democrats were 18-29, whereas only 13% of registered Republicans were 18-29.  The biggest advantage in the other direction (31%/27%) was in the 50-64 age block.  Beyond that, it's estimated that 40% of registered voters are Democrats, and 29% are Republicans, so that skews the raw count in the 18-29 age block even more.

 

The aging U.S. electorate: A majority of Republican voters - and half of Democrats - are 50 and older

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1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

You can look up voter rolls from primary elections and run it against death records I’d guess. Primary voting is public info, you just have to assume that how they vote in the primary is how they vote in the general.

Unless they vote for Gary Johnson.

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10 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

You can look up voter rolls from primary elections and run it against death records I’d guess. Primary voting is public info, you just have to assume that how they vote in the primary is how they vote in the general.

Would work in states where you have to register with a party to vote in their primary. But places with open primaries have lots of cross-voting by the minority party for strategery reasons. Hell, last time I voted in a primary it was the Republican so I could pick Roy Moore. (I preferred batshit crazy + entertaining to some smarmy entitled guy who'd camp out there for life. The fact that Roy fumblerooskied his opportunity at the Senate was gravy.)

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Damn, delta is tearing through one of our surgery centers. 4 preop nurses and 1 scrub tech all out with covid (i believe the scrub tech is the only one who isnt vaxxed). 
 

A crna with our group is there today and is feeling funny. She says that her and two other OR RNs there are starting to feel fatigued and feverish.

 

 

looks like that place is gonna be closed down for a bit

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19 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Would work in states where you have to register with a party to vote in their primary. But places with open primaries have lots of cross-voting by the minority party for strategery reasons. Hell, last time I voted in a primary it was the Republican so I could pick Roy Moore. (I preferred batshit crazy + entertaining to some smarmy entitled guy who'd camp out there for life. The fact that Roy fumblerooskied his opportunity at the Senate was gravy.)

No wait I'm a lying demoncrat-- last primary pick I made was a meaningless Tulsi Gabbard vote just to show appreciation for having an Amazing X-Men character on the ballot.

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2 hours ago, kevwun said:

I guarantee you it's hurting Republicans in Florida.  The gap there is small enough where 50K - 60K covid deaths has the chance to swing elections.

 

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

In general I'd agree, but:

I think places like Florida, Georgia, and Arizona would be interesting to look at. It won't matter most everywhere else. Maybe North Carolina as well. 

I'm interested in this and will try to dig some info out.

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43 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

 

I'm interested in this and will try to dig some info out.

So....I looked at racial death percentages here.  Then I looked at total deaths by state here.  Then I looked at total votes by state by party here.  Then I looked at party breakdown by race here.  I applied those percentages to the dead Floridians to see how they'd roll out.  There are a ton of faults in this analysis as I'm sure a handful of pedants will point out (shifting voter patterns, assumptions about voter breakdowns, ages, that all the dead people voted, etc.) but this was the best I could do in 20 minutes.

Republican's that have died 17,245

Democrats that have died 23,755

So in this example a net difference of 6500. 

As an FYI, Florida went for Trump by a net margin of 371,686 votes.  Probably should've just started there and said if 100% of Florida death were Republican then it still wouldn't make any difference whatsoever.  

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On 8/26/2021 at 9:18 AM, bad_teammate said:

it sucks that some people are going to be left behind, I wish that wasn't the case.

Doesn't matter, though, get out.

I was listening to a story on NPR yesterday and they were interviewing a lady who's elderly grandmother, who is a US citizen and had a US passport was unable to get to the airport earlier this week and now her health has turned south because of the stress.  I am sure it's a difficult situation but why in the fuck would you not have gotten your elderly grandmother out of there months  ago when it was first announced the US was getting out ??  I mean got damn, you really gonna wait for the last minute with a elderly person like that?

 

 

8 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

A reminder Neil fucks.

2zshbcpw21ay.jpg

 

That mofo has 3 arms AND  3 legs??

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This is what happens when some are willing to apply moral and ethical tests to everything under the Sun other than how money is made:

NEW YORK — Manhattan prosecutors have found 13 essential workers — including hospital, nursing home and school staff — who preferred to pay $200 for fake COVID-19 vaccine documents than get a free-of-charge jab in the arm.

The scam’s accused mastermind, Jasmine Clifford, 31, had a warrant out for her arrest and was expected to appear in a Manhattan court on two felony counts and a conspiracy charge.

Prosecutors say Clifford — who has a number of online businesses — forged at least 250 fake vaccination cards and then sold them online under the Instagram alias AntiVaxMomma.

Clifford, a Lyndhurst, New Jersey, resident, accepted $200 payment for vaccine cards via CashApp and Zelle, said prosecutors. The AntiVaxMomma Instagram page was down on Tuesday.

Clifford was aided by Nadayza Barkley, 27, who fraudulently entered the names of at least 10 of the scheme’s buyers into the state’s Excelsior Pass system, which provides vaccine documents to users’ cellphones, prosecutors said.

Barkley, of Bellport, on Long Island, allegedly accessed the state database through her job at a medical clinic in Patchogue.

Having Barkley enter the customers’ information in New York’s official vaccination database — which leads to acquiring an Excelsior Pass, now a key to entering venues such as restaurants, sporting events and gyms — set Clifford’s customers back another $250, prosecutors said…

https://sports.yahoo.com/13-charged-paying-antivaxmomma-fake-181900093.html

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A reminder:

Quote

Joe Rogan might court controversy with his podcast, but data from an internal Spotify newsletter obtained by Insider explains why the audio streaming giant shelled out an estimated $100 million to bring the show exclusively to its platform last year. 

I can think of 100 million reasons to get a shot.  But that's just me.

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

He’s vaccinated. He’s just grifting the rubes. 

that's what i'm thinking.  he has too much to lose not to be vaccinated.  but he can lie and say he has COVID from his trip to Florida, took ivermectin (along with monoclonal antibodies), and is as good as new.  he's not under oath.  he's not breaking any laws by lying.

his goons will eat it up and not get vaccinated.  he's playing to his fanbase.

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27 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

He’s vaccinated. He’s just grifting the rubes. 

 

16 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

that's what i'm thinking.  he has too much to lose not to be vaccinated.  but he can lie and say he has COVID from his trip to Florida, took ivermectin (along with monoclonal antibodies), and is as good as new.  he's not under oath.  he's not breaking any laws by lying.

his goons will eat it up and not get vaccinated.  he's playing to his fanbase.

He has no reason to do this. He’s a hundred millionaire. 

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