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Cairn Horn88

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Re Trump showing up at the Republican debates.

Claire McCaskill made a good point on Deadline White House yesterday. If the timing of the debates coincides with Trump’s trial at all, Trump will definitely use the debates as an excuse to delay the trial(s) so he can participate. That’s the best predictor I’ve heard because he will definitely do anything he can to delay justice as long as possible. That would raise problems for the debate moderators because Trump would go with the intention of ranting about his victimhood, how the indictments are a hoax and politically motivated and blah, blah, blah. Then he’d put his GOP opponents in a position of either having to defend him or risk losing the support of the MAGA base. We could see who would be the first one on the debate stage to swear that if they’re elected President, they’ll pardon Trump for his crimes. I don’t know whether the moderators would try or even want to get Trump to only speak about the issues (like he’s ever done that before) and leave the grandstanding out of it.

I see the first debate is scheduled for August 23. That’s only three months after the scheduled start of the stolen classified documents trial and we know Trump will try to delay that. It’s right around the time we’re expecting indictments from Fani Willis in the case of trying to overturn the election in Georgia. We’re expecting indictments in the Jan. 6 insurrection/coup plot case any day now. We don’t know when that trial will occur but it’s reasonable to assume the debate schedule will present time conflicts that Trump could exploit in that case too. So while I don’t think Trump cares about debating his opponents at all, I could see him using the debates as an excuse to fuck with the schedules of his various court cases. 

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2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Re Trump showing up at the Republican debates.

Claire McCaskill made a good point on Deadline White House yesterday. If the timing of the debates coincides with Trump’s trial at all, Trump will definitely use the debates as an excuse to delay the trial(s) so he can participate. That’s the best predictor I’ve heard because he will definitely do anything he can to delay justice as long as possible. That would raise problems for the debate moderators because Trump would go with the intention of ranting about his victimhood, how the indictments are a hoax and politically motivated and blah, blah, blah. Then he’d put his GOP opponents in a position of either having to defend him or risk losing the support of the MAGA base. We could see who would be the first one on the debate stage to swear that if they’re elected President, they’ll pardon Trump for his crimes. I don’t know whether the moderators would try or even want to get Trump to only speak about the issues (like he’s ever done that before) and leave the grandstanding out of it.

I see the first debate is scheduled for August 23. That’s only three months after the scheduled start of the stolen classified documents trial and we know Trump will try to delay that. It’s right around the time we’re expecting indictments from Fani Willis in the case of trying to overturn the election in Georgia. We’re expecting indictments in the Jan. 6 insurrection/coup plot case any day now. We don’t know when that trial will occur but it’s reasonable to assume the debate schedule will present time conflicts that Trump could exploit in that case too. So while I don’t think Trump cares about debating his opponents at all, I could see him using the debates as an excuse to fuck with the schedules of his various court cases. 

If I commit multiple felonies I don’t think the judge is really gonna give a shit about the conference I’m scheduled to attend in Orlando.

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Considering this fucked up timeline:
Trump is convicted before election
Biden dies before election
Public elects Trump because a black woman is scary
The US has a President in jail. 
Country is a joke
 

NeonMoon has been paying attention to this timeline. Read this. And start sweating.
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Imagine walking into that voting booth, and casting your vote for the guy who is facing so many different felony charges in so many different cases, that we can't even keep track of all of them. And that's not including being found guilty in his rape case. Like, you've got a bunch of other options. Shitty ones, but still, other options. Nope, this is my guy. I am definitely not in a cult. 

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1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Imagine walking into that voting booth, and casting your vote for the guy who is facing so many different felony charges in so many different cases, that we can't even keep track of all of them. And that's not including being found guilty in his rape case. Like, you've got a bunch of other options. Shitty ones, but still, other options. Nope, this is my guy. I am definitely not in a cult. 

I was thinking about this last night.  70 million voters in this country are so completely gone that they don't think ANY of this matters.  They think it is all not real.  It's insane.

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13 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Not even my idiot students have ever come up with an excuse as ridiculous as "I can't be tried for stealing national security documents because I'm too busy running for President."

Would be even funnier if they were talking about student body President 

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Well, Trump is making people choose between him and the established US government.  Like, if you can vote for Trump in 2024, you have to buy into that anyone involved in Trump's 2020 election defeat and/or subsequent legal woes is corrupt and part of a conspiracy to destroy Trump and subvert the rule of legitimate law.  You're talking about a large amount of people in the federal and states judicial systems.  A lot of people in federal law enforcement like the FBI.  A lot of involved with carrying out elections in all 50 states.  You're talking about one of the 3 branches of the federal government and a lot of state governments being corrupt to the core and not fit for the authority they hold.

If you believe in your heart of hearts that Trump is the victim here, then you also aren't far from believing everyone involved in that conspiracy needs to be brought to justice.  You aren't far from supporting a massive purging of judicial and law enforcement orgs at federal and state levels.  Certainly mass turnover and replacement with MAGA-friendly officials.  Maybe worse.

The only thing left for a would be despot to overcome would be the actual voters who vote against them.  We may be ignorantly deceived now, but once the full scope of the criminal conspiracy to deny Trump of his rights and freedoms is proven with whatever farcical due-process is carried out in a purging, voters can't use ignorance as an excuse any more.  We'd be part of the problem, too far gone for redemption, a threat to the truth according to Trump, and enemies of the prevailing law and order.

What then?

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13 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Not even my idiot students have ever come up with an excuse as ridiculous as "I can't be tried for stealing national security documents because I'm too busy running for President."

Yet

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1 hour ago, Goredho said:

Well, Trump is making people choose between him and the established US government.  Like, if you can vote for Trump in 2024, you have to buy into that anyone involved in Trump's 2020 election defeat and/or subsequent legal woes is corrupt and part of a conspiracy to destroy Trump and subvert the rule of legitimate law.  You're talking about a large amount of people in the federal and states judicial systems.  A lot of people in federal law enforcement like the FBI.  A lot of involved with carrying out elections in all 50 states.  You're talking about one of the 3 branches of the federal government and a lot of state governments being corrupt to the core and not fit for the authority they hold.

If you believe in your heart of hearts that Trump is the victim here, then you also aren't far from believing everyone involved in that conspiracy needs to be brought to justice.  You aren't far from supporting a massive purging of judicial and law enforcement orgs at federal and state levels.  Certainly mass turnover and replacement with MAGA-friendly officials.  Maybe worse.

The only thing left for a would be despot to overcome would be the actual voters who vote against them.  We may be ignorantly deceived now, but once the full scope of the criminal conspiracy to deny Trump of his rights and freedoms is proven with whatever farcical due-process is carried out in a purging, voters can't use ignorance as an excuse any more.  We'd be part of the problem, too far gone for redemption, a threat to the truth according to Trump, and enemies of the prevailing law and order.

What then?

Self nuke?

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24 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Not even my idiot students have ever come up with an excuse as ridiculous as "I can't be tried for stealing national security documents because I'm too busy running for President."

And the response from like 100% of everyone should be "Well then, maybe, don't run for President?"

It's not a right, you know. 

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24 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I was thinking about this last night.  70 million voters in this country are so completely gone that they don't think ANY of this matters.  They think it is all not real.  It's insane.

I think a significant chunk of true believers- white, working class, been voting against their own self-interest since the Reagan Revolution- treat it more like a sport and they're the fans getting decked out in their team colors and face paint going to the tailgate/rally. The design of the I'd Rather Be Russian Than Democrat t-shirt is literally the template of a commemorative college bowl game jersey except instead of the 2 team helmets about to butt heads, it's an elephant and donkey squaring off. For some people who vote against their own self-interest on auto-pilot and are painfully deficient at seeing long-term cause and effect relationships, it's little more than bragging rights while their standard of living gradually gets shittier. 

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59 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I was thinking about this last night.  70 million voters in this country are so completely gone that they don't think ANY of this matters.  They think it is all not real.  It's insane.

I think there are two distinct groups within that 70 million.

One of them knows he did all this shit and they do not care.  They love him for it because he owns the libs and lets them be as awful as they want to be and they have found their tribe, so to speak.  The other one is made up of the morons.  They are easily deceived and they surround themselves in an echo chamber with others who think like they do.  They truly believe he is innocent and this is all politically motivated to take him down.

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I’m not stunned by his actions, but I am stunned how he gift wrapped this

Recording your own crimeing, enlisting your valet to participate in subsequent crimeing, and then failing to crime sufficiently so as to avoid getting caught on first crime is absolutely breathtaking
It's like Will Farrell and John C Reilly made a Stepbrothers sequel based on Watergate.
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1 hour ago, Chewbacca said:

I think there are two distinct groups within that 70 million.

One of them knows he did all this shit and they do not care.  They love him for it because he owns the libs and lets them be as awful as they want to be and they have found their tribe, so to speak.  The other one is made up of the morons.  They are easily deceived and they surround themselves in an echo chamber with others who think like they do.  They truly believe he is innocent and this is all politically motivated to take him down.

And I would argue that the former is actually more dangerous.  That first group are the ones who are gladly applauding authoritarianism.

Edited by Biff Tannen
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1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

And I would argue that the former is actually more dangerous.  That first group are the ones who are gladly applauding authoritarianism.

Agreed 1oo%, although they are all applauding authoritarianism.  The first group is Ted Cruz and Ron Desantis.  The second is Boebert and Marge.

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca said:

Agreed 1oo%, although they are all applauding authoritarianism.  The first group is Ted Cruz and Ron Desantis.  The second is Boebert and Marge.

I guess KNOWINGLY applauding is the point.  The dummies don't even know what it means.

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Is it too much to ask that somebody on that debate stage or on the moderating panel/desk ask this follow-up question:

"Gov/Sen so-and-so...if you receive the Republican Party nomination for President and win the general election, do you pledge here and now to pardon Donald Trump for all federal crimes?"

We all know that question will be asked in some form or fashion.  What I want is very basic journalism 101 or politics 101...somebody on the dais or desk follow-up with, "Well, in order to pardon him...that would mean he was convicted of a federal crime.  A President can't pardon somebody for crimes they have yet to be convicted of down the road, perhaps after my terms are up."  

I mean, the GOP knows this right.  You can make them sign a blood oath to "support" Trump if elected, but you can't force another GOP President to pardon Trump if Trump is innocent of all of this and is never found guilty.  

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2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Considering this fucked up timeline:

Trump is convicted before election

Biden dies before election

Public elects Trump because a black woman is scary

The US has a President in jail. 

Country is a joke

 

Animated GIF

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Shit, I can't remember this from some GOV course I took 25 years ago, but it has something to do with Nixon hadn't even been indicted yet, so a blanket pardon could be issues for anything related.  But Trump's problem would be particular indictments that had not yet led to trials/verdicts.  It had  something to do with Burdick v. United States that twicehorn and brisket, et. al can speak to more intelligently.  Ford also demanded a statement from Nixon that all but pronounced his guilt, Trump would never do that.  People also forget that it was actually a tough choice for Ford because he and Nixon were also good friends outside of politics.  Everybody on that GOP primary fucking hates Trump privately.  

They'd probably cave to party pressure in the name of "let's not divide the country any further than Joe Biden has."  But it's also a very unique opportunity for the RNC.  If such a dilemma exists, a GOP President not named Trump feeling the pressure to pardon Trump...that means they can jettison Trump much more elegantly and move on to the Republican Party A.T., 'After Trump.'  If the incumbent fears the MAGA base won't turn out for them in 2028...they just play the 'two weeks' game that party has gotten so fucking good at.  "We are continuing to monitor the evolving legal witch hunt surrounding former President Trump.  We have to see where all the cases are headed before we issue a pardon because of the specific legal nature and procedures.  If not at the end of my first term, then certainly to start my second term.  We thank you for continued support as we of course look to vindicate Donald Trump as THE CONSTITUTION that we all hold dear clearly describes.  In the meantime, we have to continue to work to clean up Biden and the Democrats' mess and move this country forward.  I am announcing the formation of a blue ribbon legal task force of lawyers, judges, and scholars to see how best to go about these pardons and we thank you for your patience.  We have but one chance to get this right for history."

And then they just go on fucking about.  It would actually work, too.  If it weren't for the fact you gotta get Trump outta the way first. 

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca said:

I think there are two distinct groups within that 70 million.

One of them knows he did all this shit and they do not care.  They love him for it because he owns the libs and lets them be as awful as they want to be and they have found their tribe, so to speak.  The other one is made up of the morons.  They are easily deceived and they surround themselves in an echo chamber with others who think like they do.  They truly believe he is innocent and this is all politically motivated to take him down.

There is another group who supports him but maybe it's a subset of the group who knows he's crooked as shit but have no fucks to give. It's the Harlan Crows and other uber-rich who Trump makes policy to help because that's who he is. Granted, just about any Republican is going to do things to help this group but they've got to win first. Maybe they think Trump is the only one who can win on that side at this time.

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4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

So riddle me this:  was any video footage actually deleted, or are Trump, Nauta and de Oliveira only being charged with ordering "Employee #4" to wipe the video server?

Doesn't sound like any footage was actually deleted. Per the indictment, After De Oliveira told "Employee #4" that "the boss" wanted to have the footage deleted, Employee 4 told De Oliveira that he didn't know how to do so and didn't think he would have a legal right to do so even if he could. 

The part in italics to me is pretty cut and dry indication that that portion of the indictment came from testimony by Employee 4 himself.

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Doesn't sound like any footage was actually deleted. Per the indictment, After De Oliveira told "Employee #4" that "the boss" wanted to have the footage deleted, Employee 4 told De Oliveira that he didn't know how to do so and didn't think he would have a legal right to do so even if he could. 
The part in italics to me is pretty cut and dry indication that that portion of the indictment came from testimony by Employee 4 himself.

Probably not referring to legal rights, but rather IT permissions
4fe4c7be234a3493101cafa147167ed2.jpg
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1 minute ago, Lurch said:


Probably not referring to legal rights, but rather IT permissions
 

OH, good catch, I obviously didn't read in in that way, but makes sense. However, doesn't seem to jibe with the following sentence where he talks about taking it up the chain to the head security guy for the Trump Org, not the head IT guy.

 

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3 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I see the first debate is scheduled for August 23. That’s only three months after the scheduled start of the stolen classified documents trial and we know Trump will try to delay that. It’s right around the time we’re expecting indictments from Fani Willis in the case of trying to overturn the election in Georgia. We’re expecting indictments in the Jan. 6 insurrection/coup plot case any day now. We don’t know when that trial will occur but it’s reasonable to assume the debate schedule will present time conflicts that Trump could exploit in that case too. So while I don’t think Trump cares about debating his opponents at all, I could see him using the debates as an excuse to fuck with the schedules of his various court cases. 

that's in 3 weeks, holmes.

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4 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

The more that comes out and the worse it gets, my main question is what was he actually doing all this for?  This is going beyond the realm of "he just wanted them to show off to people".  I know he's dumb, but this is a fuck ton of effort just to have bragging rights.  There has to be a more nefarious intent here.  If not, then god damn, he's actually dumber than his cult.

because he doesn't like people telling him what to do.  if someone is telling him what to do, that means he's not in charge.  he likes being in charge.

he doesn't have a strategy.  he's zero moves ahead.  he likes to "see what happens".

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2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I was thinking about this last night.  70 million voters in this country are so completely gone that they don't think ANY of this matters.  They think it is all not real.  It's insane.

Don't leave out the ones that couldn't tell you what was even going on.

The answer is funny, the question is actually worse. "Studies show that 1 out of 6 Americans can't find the US on a map...."

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OH, good catch, I obviously didn't read in in that way, but makes sense. However, doesn't seem to jibe with the following sentence where he talks about taking it up the chain to the head security guy for the Trump Org, not the head IT guy.
 

The head security guy would likely have the rights on their security system. The IT administrator would not grant rights to an underling without the security head’s permission.
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2 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

I think there are two distinct groups within that 70 million.

One of them knows he did all this shit and they do not care.  They love him for it because he owns the libs and lets them be as awful as they want to be and they have found their tribe, so to speak.  The other one is made up of the morons.  They are easily deceived and they surround themselves in an echo chamber with others who think like they do.  They truly believe he is innocent and this is all politically motivated to take him down.

It’s a distinction without a difference insomuch as the hatemongers want to follow trump down the path, and the morons can be easily led down it. 
 

what would the event look like that shakes the morons up to the point of altering course and stumbling onto the proper side against authoritarianism?  And would such an event happen too late to matter?

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9 minutes ago, Lurch said:


The head security guy would likely have the rights on their security system. The IT administrator would not grant rights to an underling without the security head’s permission.

You say that, but this is the Mar-a-Lago IT administrator we're talking about...

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19 hours ago, Js1 said:

Barron?

Trump on Barron in the first 2016 Presidential debate:

He's 10 years old. He has computers. He is so good with these computers, it's unbelievable. 

Just imagine what he knows now!.

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1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

We all know that question will be asked in some form or fashion.  What I want is very basic journalism 101 or politics 101...somebody on the dais or desk follow-up with, "Well, in order to pardon him...that would mean he was convicted of a federal crime.  A President can't pardon somebody for crimes they have yet to be convicted of down the road, perhaps after my terms are up."  

You know that's not true, right?  Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon and issued the following statement, conviction wasn't necessary:

On Sunday, September 8, 1974, President Ford addressed the nation from the Oval Office to announce his decision to “grant a full, free and absolute pardon unto Richard Nixon for all offenses against the United States which he, Richard Nixon, has committed or may have committed.”

 

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16 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Paragraph 91.

It looks like the government has the contents of a Snapchat between those assholes. They also somehow know that Trump promised De Oliveira that he would pay his defense attorney costs. Some smart person explain to me how they know that conversation content unless when the Deep State figured out these assholes were hiding stuff from them, they had wire tabs put on their phones and Snapchat.

F055E366-AC05-4C49-9A88-4EBBB9A6250E.gif.c60591c44c7607aa554b0a55097e7a68.gif

oh no.. i thought all that disappeared after 24 hours.. oh no.

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