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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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1 minute ago, YChang said:

You know... I don't think I would mind if the rest of the country went with how NE and ME handled their EC counts. 

It would be more fair. That’s for sure. But it’ll never happen 

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9 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I don’t know...

You and well a lot of us... can just stop and be more self-reflective and admit that there's a lot we don't know. You especially. 😄

8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Everyone said it was the worst error in 40 years.  They got it "right" but it was supposed to be a cakewalk for Biden.  All of the MN, WI, MI states were something like D+7.  Stuff like that.

 

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2021/07/19/pre-election-polls-in-2020-had-the-largest-errors-in-40-years/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020-poll-errors/2021/07/18/8d6a9838-e7df-11eb-ba5d-55d3b5ffcaf1_story.html

 

Quote

Public opinion polls in the 2020 presidential election suffered from errors of “unusual magnitude,” the highest in 40 years for surveys estimating the national popular vote and in at least 20 years for state-level polls, according to a study conducted by the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).

The AAPOR task force examined 2,858 polls, including 529 national presidential race polls and 1,572 state-level presidential polls. They found that the surveys overstated the margin between President Biden and former president Donald Trump by 3.9 points in the national popular vote and 4.3 percentage points in state polls.

Polls understated the support for Trump in nearly every state and by an average of 3.3 percentage points overall. Polls in Senate and gubernatorial races suffered from the same problem.

 

15 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I 100% find 2016 polling as an anomaly with how the D candidate was selected and her lack of campaigning in key states. She literally thought she had it won.....

So did a lot of people.  I was joking with some friends that I was gonna vote Trump because "someone's gotta vote for that asshole."

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7 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I actively rooted against the USWNT in the last World Cup, just because it was obvious they cared more about being activists than about being good at soccer. It seriously felt like the entire country was behind me on that one.
 

It didn’t feel nearly the same this year. Everyone that cared enough to pay attention was rooting for them. Getting rid of that “old guard” of unlikeable players that weren’t good anyway made a world of difference. I noticed Biles had a ton of widespread support too, as most sensible people realized the “she quit” narrative was nonsense.

Uh, no. It was you and the incel crowd that cheered against Americans in international competition. The rest of us saw a bunch of bad ass American female athletes. 

20 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I don’t know who will win the election. I know Trump isn’t losing every close state like BO&W thinks. 

That is the most reassuring thing I've read in a week.

 

Edited by cactusflinthead
Time. What is it?

I cant recall being contacted by a polling organization in 25+ years. I haven't had a landline since maybe 2008, and I was probably late ditching it then.  I get the feeling there is a subset of ~15,000 lonely people in this country that answer their phones every time they ring, and the pollsters just keep checking in with them to save time. 

18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Tom Herman.

 

 

FUCK.gif

26 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at Trump losing Georgia & PA. You knew trump was in trouble in 2020 because he truly barely won several Great Lake states in 2016. Regression to the mean. The same logic applies for the dems this time. 


i remember the Georgia R party asking for more money months before the 2020 election and the kush denying them 

8 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I cant recall being contacted by a polling organization in 25+ years. I haven't had a landline since maybe 2008, and I was probably late ditching it then.  I get the feeling there is a subset of ~15,000 lonely people in this country that answer their phones every time they ring, and the pollsters just keep checking in with them to save time. 

I'm sure they've tried calling me.  I'm sure I haven't picked up that "Telemarketing" or "Spam suspected" call either.

21 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I actively rooted against the USWNT in the last World Cup, just because it was obvious they cared more about being activists than about being good at soccer. It seriously felt like the entire country was behind me on that one.

What an odd flex but not surprising

200.gif

27 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

That makes sense. I left put part of Bartley’s quote, though, so my post was unclear. Barkley said you (Mulaney) needs to go to the Olympics, that at  the Olympics, everyone loves their country.

Mea culpa.

Yeah, I would think anyone who paid to go to the games were there to cheer for the US, but back home, man it's just a beating living in today's US society.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/three-year-inflation-outlook-hits-record-low-in-new-york-fed-consumer-survey.html

Consumers grew more confident in July that inflation will be less of a problem in the coming years, according to a New York Federal Reserve report Monday that showed the three-year outlook at a new low.

The latest views from the monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations indicate that respondents see inflation staying elevated over the next year but then receding in the next couple of years after that.

In fact, the three-year portion of the survey showed consumers expecting inflation at just 2.3%, down 0.6 percentage point from June and the lowest in the history of the survey, going back to June 2013.

Respondents expect the price of gas to increase by 3.5% over the next year, 0.8 percentage point less than in June, and food to see a rise of 4.7%, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than a month ago.

In addition, household spending is expected to increase by 4.9%, which is 0.2 percentage point lower than in June and the lowest reading since April 2021, right around the time when the current inflation surge began.

Expectations for employment brightened, despite the rising unemployment rate. The perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next year fell to 14.3%, down half a percentage point, while the expectation of leaving one’s job voluntarily, a proxy for worker confidence about opportunities in the labor market, climbed to 20.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase for the highest reading since February 2023.

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38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He’s not stupid. He’s going to announce he’s a 2028 candidate 5 seconds after Kamala is inaugurated. 

Sir. 

 

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You guys give clowns like Helobious and Rex Kramer way too much oxygen. Throw the lid on those grease fires.

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Sir. 

 

Okay, yes he is stupid, but "I'm a presidential candidate" was a crux of his defense.  He will just announce again and force SCOTUS to protect him, again. 

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44 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at Trump losing Georgia & PA. You knew trump was in trouble in 2020 because he truly barely won several Great Lake states in 2016. Regression to the mean. The same logic applies for the dems this time. 

Happy Chris Hemsworth GIF by Marvel Studios

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Calling helo a grease fire feels a little racist-adjacent. 

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

My expert analysis

image.thumb.png.abf5c9b6289ff4303fd23739fa54a096.png

That looks right to me

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4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Calling helo a grease fire feels a little racist-adjacent. 

That one even slipped by me. Thank you for being an ally.

It’s also funny that people on here think I’m some trump supporter when I’m not. 2 chances to vote for him and I didn’t either time. I am a realist though, and I seriously think whatever candidate wins is going to win 270-268. You have to give trump Michigan & Georgia at this point. It’ll all come down to PA

 
 
 

What does he owe these cities money for?
59 minutes ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Those fuckers will never win the presidency ever again if we flip.

This is their concern dude.  Hence why our state government shits all over Harris county and tries to disenfranchise them (along with DFW, but more so Houston).  I'm sure they gave up on Travis decades ago.

56 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Yeah, Front 242 going to be stuck in my head all day

Yep, I had to go ahead and listen to Headhunter at the gym. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

57 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Lol at Trump losing Georgia & PA. You knew trump was in trouble in 2020 because he truly barely won several Great Lake states in 2016. Regression to the mean. The same logic applies for the dems this time. 

200w.gif?cid=6c09b952raukotk9oiop3vnoh3w

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is their concern dude.  Hence why our state government shits all over Harris county and tries to disenfranchise them (along with DFW, but more so Houston).  I'm sure they gave up on Travis decades ago.

Collin will be interesting if they try fuckery there if it does flip finally.....

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3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

That one even slipped by me. Thank you for being an ally.

It’s also funny that people on here think I’m some trump supporter when I’m not. 2 chances to vote for him and I didn’t either time. I am a realist though, and I seriously think whatever candidate wins is going to win 270-268. You have to give trump Michigan & Georgia at this point. It’ll all come down to PA

Nobody thinks you're a Trump supporter. Everyone thinks you're a fool. 

Whether it's a bit or you're genuinely this foolish is something only you can know. 

4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

 

It’s also funny that people on here think I’m some trump supporter when I’m not. 2 chances to vote for him and I didn’t either time. I am a realist though, and I seriously think whatever candidate wins is going to win 270-268. You have to give trump Michigan & Georgia at this point. It’ll all come down to PA

They think you have the IQ of a Trump supporter.

5 minutes ago, Helobious said:

That one even slipped by me. Thank you for being an ally.

It’s also funny that people on here think I’m some trump supporter when I’m not. 2 chances to vote for him and I didn’t either time. I am a realist though, and I seriously think whatever candidate wins is going to win 270-268. You have to give trump Michigan & Georgia at this point. It’ll all come down to PA

 

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Nobody thinks you're a Trump supporter. Everyone thinks you're a fool. 

Whether it's a bit or you're genuinely this foolish is something only you can know. 

This.  You are one of the biggest idiots in this community, and it isn't close.

6 minutes ago, Helobious said:

You have to give trump Michigan

Why?  Kamala is up almost 3 points in Michigan.

I mean, it’s one thing to think Georgia could flip back. Still could - def was going to if  Biden was still in the race. But uh, the GOP has only won PA once since 1992. And that was because America got Hillary’d

Same with Michigan 

Edited by Js1

16 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Calling helo a grease fire feels a little racist-adjacent. 

You'll have to explain that to me then. He comes in here seeking attention and everyone gladly gives it to him. Just like Rex Kramer. Just ignore or laugh at them and move on. You're trying to throw water on a grease fire. 

9 minutes ago, tbone_ said:


What does he owe these cities money for?

Venue space, security/police, platters from McDonald’s 

Having Kari Lake down ballot is a huge downside for Trump in AZ and likely enough to swing it to Harris. 

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

You'll have to explain that to me then. He comes in here seeking attention and everyone gladly gives it to him. Just like Rex Kramer. Just ignore or laugh at them and move on. You're trying to throw water on a grease fire. 

It was just a silly quip, since a pejorative for Hispanics is greaser. 

Just now, 6th Street said:

Having Kari Lake down ballot is a huge downside for Trump in AZ and likely enough to swing it to Harris. 

This is also how I feel about Robinson in NC. That same poll showing a tied presidential race has Robinson down 46-36

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

It was just a silly quip, since a pejorative for Hispanics is greaser. 

Is Helobious the spanish word for moron?

Just now, mdmost said:

Is Helobious the spanish word for moron?

On here it may as well be

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It was just a silly quip, since a pejorative for Hispanics is greaser. 

I thought greasers were Italians, and Hispanics were beaners.  

We really need to align our pejoratives.

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Man that post about Trump losing and immediately going for the candidacy in 2028 is the best case scenario that Dems could ever have. You get a back-to-back loser 82-year-old Trump who either gets to be the candidate for the 4th time in a row and a loser for the 3rd time in a row or he rips the party into pieces. 

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1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

My expert analysis

image.thumb.png.abf5c9b6289ff4303fd23739fa54a096.png

A couple off-the-radar states here that I think I might lighten the shading on:

New Hampshire: The Democrat usually wins New Hampshire, but it's typically by a pretty narrow margin.  It's always a lot closer than people give it credit for.  And in this election, I have some concern that Harris not going through the primary and doing the usual New Hampshire retail-politics thing back in January may be to her detriment.  It might behoove her to just take a day and stop in at a bunch of diners around Manchester and Nashua to have the local television networks show you checking that box.

Alaska: Alaska is in play.  Only one of its three statewide federal officials is a Republican.  And the Native American population, which is huge, is becoming more politically active and more reliably Democratic.  This is one of those rare times when a rally might have an electoral impact--just fly up to Anchorage one day, have a rally at the airport, and fly overnight to get back.  Making that effort could be worth a couple points, and a couple points might be all you need to flip that state.

I’m not worried about NH. We have some polling that she’s at or ahead of Biden’s 2020 margin. Even Hillary won NH

But a quick stop is not hard to do 

Edited by Js1

I can't keep up. Has this been posted?

 

8 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I thought greasers were Italians, and Hispanics were beaners.  

We really need to align our pejoratives.

I’m not about to internet search it but I thought it was initially specific to the Puerto Rican culture when they put lots of product in their hair, and scope creeped to all Latin/hispanic.  Same reason as it was used against Italians, but different generations. 
 

anywho

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m not about to internet search it but I thought it was initially specific to the Puerto Rican culture when they put lots of product in their hair, and scope creeped to all Latin/hispanic.  Same reason as it was used against Italians, but different generations. 
 

anywho

I think it's your bedtime, Duck. 

 

😁

25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, it’s one thing to think Georgia could flip back. Still could - def was going to if  Biden was still in the race. But uh, the GOP has only won PA once since 1992. And that was because America got Hillary’d

Same with Michigan 

Yeah, both Michigan and PA had Dem governors and two Dem Senators and they voted Dem in 2020.  They're not voting Trump.

Harris wins GA and it'll be by a wider margin than people think.

Anyone know of this is right? If so, could be a good point for the purity test types.

image.thumb.png.91b8b70e0175240ab9439615169e4793.png

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