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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Or a few years later when you’re out of the Army, and you’re in Midland, banging some big ole gal you two work with and that you’ve secretly nicknamed Bertha, who probably weighs as much as the two of you combined, and after 45 minutes, maybe it’s the alcohol or the really long day at work, but you hit that brick wall, and you realize that you can’t get the job done, and you don’t have to keep up the facade in front of Tim because he knows you like few do, and you literally reach over to Tim who is sitting on the couch watching TV and tag him, and he hops up and takes your place, and he gets Bertha over the edge in 25 minutes while you recover on the couch, and you’re grateful to him knowing he won’t tell anybody, and he’s grateful to you for ending his slump, and Bertha is grateful to the two of you for doing something in 70 minutes that her husband hasn’t been able to do after three kids and 23 years of marriage. 

Something tells me this absolutely happened. Mainly because I was in Tim's situation but my buddy walked out and slammed a beer then said "a mans got to do what a man has to do" then returned to the bedroom to finish the job.

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Posted

The few Trump voters I know personally are not inclined to discuss him at all anymore I think a kind of political dysphoria has set in and their reticence is proof of their intention to vote for him, come what may.

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Posted
3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

What’s it like to fuck a hobbit?  Or at least somebody cosplaying as one?

Not asking for a friend.

Crazy!  Dude, they shave most of their feet now.

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Posted
3 hours ago, Mole said:

Early voting profiling check in from semi rural Georgia.

I encountered 4 other voter this morning: a grizzled, beaten down white gut with a confederate flag for his front license plate, a 40-something Black women dressed for some office job, and a FBC-looking couple decked out in UGA gear.

Extrapolating this data to the entire state…

I mean, isn't that basically the state in a nutshell?

Posted
12 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

 

LOL I was watching that dude last night, thinking he liked he wished someone would just put him out of his misery.

Posted
2 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Easy response is why hasn't the Biden Admin done it then 

Aside form Biden being 119 years old and more conservative on some social issues, do you know how laws are passed in this country?

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Posted
6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Sometimes you owe it to your friendship to try and sort these people out.

It’s like if you were friends with a guy named Tim, and you were both a couple of young PFCs sitting in a Juarez jail wondering how you’re going to get back to Fort Bliss without a shitload of people coming down on you, and you’re brainstorming and and Tim ultimately empties out his savings account to fix things, even though you know he’s been saving for almost a year to buy that shitty worn-out ‘85 GT Hatchback Mustang because the two of you are just going to pull in the ladies driving around El Paso in that thing.

Or a few years later when you’re out of the Army, and you’re in Midland, banging some big ole gal you two work with and that you’ve secretly nicknamed Bertha, who probably weighs as much as the two of you combined, and after 45 minutes, maybe it’s the alcohol or the really long day at work, but you hit that brick wall, and you realize that you can’t get the job done, and you don’t have to keep up the facade in front of Tim because he knows you like few do, and you literally reach over to Tim who is sitting on the couch watching TV and tag him, and he hops up and takes your place, and he gets Bertha over the edge in 25 minutes while you recover on the couch, and you’re grateful to him knowing he won’t tell anybody, and he’s grateful to you for ending his slump, and Bertha is grateful to the two of you for doing something in 70 minutes that her husband hasn’t been able to do after three kids and 23 years of marriage. 

And then nearly 30 years later, Tim is in Austin for a wedding and you two are catching up after not talking for a few months  and he drops the little “I don’t think I can vote for Kamala” bombshell.

At that point, in your head you want to keep that friendship, but he’s giving off signs of voting for Trump, and while you know you can’t make him vote for Kamala, you can at least convince him to watch some clips of Trump and read an article or two about Arlington and his views on Vietnam POWs and the Purple Heart thing and at least get Tim to leave the line empty.

Thats just one hypothetical example of what to do with a longtime friend who gives off signs of voting for Trump.

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Posted

So, all this talk of "black ppl bbq" raises the issue of "assimilation."

Thatguy's story relates code-switching and behavior designed not to alarm the honkies.  In some ways, it's a shame that has to happen, especially because "his people" in most cases were not voluntary immigrants and were essentially forced not to assimilate by not being allowed to participate in society.

In other ways, such assimilative behavior is probably a natural and beneficial, maybe, consequence of immigration.  It's the melting part of the melting pot.

Clearly, those minority/immigrant groups that have not yet or not rapidly assimilated make the majority or minority/majority (e.g. wypipo) very nervous.  I think, historically, the "separatism" of a lot of Jewish sects has reinforced anti-Semitism worldwide (it's the Hasids and orthodox that draw the caricatures and less so the more Reformed and secular Jews).  And, you hear that kind of complaint ("they don't assimilate") for Muslim immigrants I think especially in Europe.

Also, assimilation tends to imply an acceptance of aspects of the minority culture by the majority, so it's a two-way street.  I don't think assimilation should be expected or required.  But it is what tends to make even us honky, cracker-ass Americans more American than English, French, Scottish, German or Dutch.

Kind of a thread-jack, but I have been curious about the role of assimilation by immigrants in "national racism" for a while now.

 

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I struggle with Trump people I know. I try to avoid the topic and convince where I can. But the thing that stops me about Dago’s post above is…this person said they are aware they are voting for someone evil. If that’s ACTUALLY what they said…that’s not lost. That’s a complete understanding and still making a conscious choice for Evil. Hell, the guy could have said he just won’t vote. But he’s willingly voting for evil. If that’s what actually went down, then that isn’t lost. That’s knowingly complicit. 

117079567c1c40229648c822ee863dd6

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Posted
8 hours ago, mdmost said:

Probably because Biden doesn't want to because he's old school on crime and the War on Drugs?

Also, Biden has some personal experience with addiction that probably makes him wary of the whole thing.  But I think it's mostly because he's old.

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Posted
10 hours ago, texasdago said:

I am so frustrated. Tonight. One of my good friends admitted to me that he's going to be voting Trump. He said he knows he's evil but won't vote Kamala. This is a guy who is very smart, received his master's degree overseas. Speaks three languages. Worldly, travels, intelligent and thoughtful and he's voting Trump. I'm telling you it just makes me sad and very very disappointed. He's still my friend but I'm really disappointed.

Man this is tough and I'm kinda in the same boat, but if you can talk to them (not lecture) then you can largely deprogram them over time.   My friend, whom I have known since I was 5 is not that educated.  He has a quick wit and high EQ and can figure out how to do just about anything except pass college English.  He has an undiagnosed learning disability along with dyslexia.  But his family's ethos seemed to be "help is for the weak, just work harder" Now he has his own service company that he truly built himself from scratch.  But making rounds in a truck and listening to talk radio is a hell of a drug.

9 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Could you explain how (and when) these broken, proudly ignorant, hate-filled  bigots will have an epiphany and get un-fucked up and un-lost?

Almost daily conversations over years.  Calmly using facts to wash off the layers of BS.  Then reinforce conversations with supporting info from actual experts not youtube influencers.  One of the things that worked surprisingly well when he talked about podcasts and youtube channels was to ask him about what products they were selling.  I think that made the connection that these aren't truth bringers, but charlatans.  I talked with him a lot about social media engagement mechanisms designed enrage and delight.  One of his guys was the one who dragged him down the rabbit hole, but he quit after my friend got vaccinated and that's helped out a lot. (yes I had to talk him through all that) 

tl/dr if you care about the person you will help them not drown in a sea of bullshit.

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Posted
2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

 

Also, assimilation tends to imply an acceptance of aspects of the minority culture by the majority, so it's a two-way street. 

 

 

No.

You’re sort of talking about acculturation, not assimilation.

Posted
8 hours ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

Marist has been all over the map. 

Harris winning 52-47 (0.5 points better than Biden) but they also have Trump doing:

  • 2 points better in Texas
  • 2 points worse in Ohio
  • 1.5 points better in Florida
  • 1.5 points better in Arizona
  • 1.5 points better in Georgia
  • 1.5 points worse in North Carolina
  • 2 points better in Pennsylvania
  • 0.5 points worse in Wisconsin
  • 2.5 points worse in Michigan

Granted, some of those are almost a month old, but there we go again - national polls show her doing as well (or better) than Biden, but somehow worse in almost every swing state

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Posted
28 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I don't disagree with any of that, but if you are intending to vote to hurt my family I have no obligation to continue being your friend. Especially if it's already been explained and you've made your choice. In that situation I'm not the one who terminated the friendship. 

This is where I am with both friends and family. I’ve saved those I could. The rest? Time to tell them exactly what they have become and that they can fuck off.

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Posted

I agree they feel a bit strange but it's entirely believable that after 8 years of Trump we are going to see Harris wipe the floor with him even more than usual in California, New York, and other deep blue states.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I agree they feel a bit strange but it's entirely believable that after 8 years of Trump we are going to see Harris wipe the floor with him even more than usual in California, New York, and other deep blue states.

That's not conventional wisdom though - he actually could do/is doing slightly better in deep blue states, like Republicans did in CA and NY in 2022, which would narrow the popular vote, but still lose the EC because of the Blue Wall going to Harris 

Nate Cohn calculated that the GOP's EC advantage in 2024 is like, 0.5% or something. 

In 2022, the GOP did better in the Sun Belt, NY and CA, but failed to do as well in the upper Midwest - which is one reason why Dems kept the Senate, almost won the House, despite losing the House popular vote by ~2 points, and won most of the governor races. 

I still think there's a disconnect of pollsters trying to adjust their polling to compensate for Trump for state-level polling, but if she wins 52% of the popular vote, she's easily winning MI, PA, WI, NV, probably AZ and flipping NC. 

 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
6 hours ago, Jhawkmvp said:

This.  There are a lot of quiet racists out there. I grew up a white kid in lily white Kansas, but I grew up in a meat packing town so there were a lot of races there to take advantage of, at the time, well paying meat packing jobs for unskilled labor. A lot of immigrants would come for those jobs.  Growing up my siblings and I had Hispanic, black, and Asian friends in school and they would come over to play and stay overnight all the time, went on trips with us, etc. I never heard my parents use racial slanders. They always treated my friends well. In college, at 20 years old, I am dating a black coed. I come home during break and my father pulls me aside. He tells me it is okay to date a black woman, just don't marry one. I am pretty floored because I had never seen my father indicate he was racist in any way. I just looked him in the eye and told him if I did decide to marry a black woman he better get on board and treat her like a queen or else he'd never be a part of my life from the wedding day forward.  At least he raised me right and did not expose me to his racism as a child, even if in the end his view on this made me lose a lot of respect for him permanently, as an adult. My parents divorced the next year, Dad re-married and became a Southern Baptist like his bible thumping, new wife. My step-mom will drop bigoted/racist comments from time to time, mostly about whatever new immigrant group is working at the meat packing plant when I visit, but my father still doesn't. I just know he silently feels the same way as my step-mom.  Dad always votes straight R and will vote for Trump again this election for the 3rd time.  No Trump talk, no Trump flags, no Trump paraphernalia, no Trump signs, etc. His Trump support is silent.  Just like his racism. 

I mean, clearly he's ashamed and knows it's wrong, deep down right?  I just don't get it.  

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Posted
34 minutes ago, locodos said:

He has a quick wit and high EQ and can figure out how to do just about anything except pass college English.  He has an undiagnosed learning disability along with dyslexia.  But his family's ethos seemed to be "help is for the weak, just work harder" Now he has his own service company that he truly built himself from scratch.  But making rounds in a truck and listening to talk radio is a hell of a drug.

That's an interesting pair of data points. Much of English is about breaking down rhetorical strategies and language to understand what your counterpart is communicating. The fact that he struggles with that academically and gave up on developing that part of his intellect, squares up cleanly with falling for AM radio shock jock bullshit. 

The republicans attack on education is a long game to create more uncritical people that will believe whatever most upsets them 

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I still think there's a disconnect of pollsters trying to adjust their polling to compensate for Trump for state-level polling, but if she wins 52% of the popular vote, she's easily winning MI, PA, WI, NV, probably AZ and flipping NC. 

 

We really need to revise our national elections so that any candidate that gets over 50% wins outright, with a deferral to the electoral college if not.  Would encourage national campaigning, increase the importance of third parties, and swing states would still keep their significance in close elections.

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Posted
7 hours ago, Jhawkmvp said:

This.  There are a lot of quiet racists out there. I grew up a white kid in lily white Kansas, but I grew up in a meat packing town so there were a lot of races there to take advantage of, at the time, well paying meat packing jobs for unskilled labor. A lot of immigrants would come for those jobs.  Growing up my siblings and I had Hispanic, black, and Asian friends in school and they would come over to play and stay overnight all the time, went on trips with us, etc. I never heard my parents use racial slanders. They always treated my friends well. In college, at 20 years old, I am dating a black coed. I come home during break and my father pulls me aside. He tells me it is okay to date a black woman, just don't marry one. I am pretty floored because I had never seen my father indicate he was racist in any way. I just looked him in the eye and told him if I did decide to marry a black woman he better get on board and treat her like a queen or else he'd never be a part of my life from the wedding day forward.  At least he raised me right and did not expose me to his racism as a child, even if in the end his view on this made me lose a lot of respect for him permanently, as an adult. My parents divorced the next year, Dad re-married and became a Southern Baptist like his bible thumping, new wife. My step-mom will drop bigoted/racist comments from time to time, mostly about whatever new immigrant group is working at the meat packing plant when I visit, but my father still doesn't. I just know he silently feels the same way as my step-mom.  Dad always votes straight R and will vote for Trump again this election for the 3rd time.  No Trump talk, no Trump flags, no Trump paraphernalia, no Trump signs, etc. His Trump support is silent.  Just like his racism. 

I had a friend from Florida who said Nebraskan racism was worse than Deep South racism because Nebraskan racism had stealth technology. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:Not necessarily.  Most of the bigots I know keep their mouths shut so that they won't face the social consequences of expressing their bigotry.  Remove the social pressure to not openly express their bigotry, and they'll let the hate flow.  We've seen that with trump opening that door for them.

I've seen a lot of racism expressed because I'm mayonnaise white and the racists thought that I would automatically agree with them.  Like I'm part of their safe space.  When I push back, they shut up.  It's not guilt, they just don't want the push back.

A college friend dropped the n bomb in my presence earlier this year. I’ve known him since 1983, and it was the first time I had ever heard him use that word. We don’t talk much anymore, but he ain’t voting turnip.

Posted
41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That's not conventional wisdom though - he actually could do/is doing slightly better in deep blue states, like Republicans did in CA and NY in 2022, which would narrow the popular vote, but still lose the EC because of the Blue Wall going to Harris 

Nate Cohn calculated that the GOP's EC advantage in 2024 is like, 0.5% or something. 

In 2022, the GOP did better in the Sun Belt, NY and CA, but failed to do as well in the upper Midwest - which is one reason why Dems kept the Senate, almost won the House, despite losing the House popular vote by ~2 points, and won most of the governor races. 

I still think there's a disconnect of pollsters trying to adjust their polling to compensate for Trump for state-level polling, but if she wins 52% of the popular vote, she's easily winning MI, PA, WI, NV, probably AZ and flipping NC. 

 

Understood, I just think it's likelier as an explanation. As you point out the state versus national polls don't make sense. I'm just saying that the whole blue states getting redder theory might be the thing that's wrong once votes are counted. People are migrating to where they agree with the politics, not away from those places. 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

We really need to revise our national elections so that any candidate that gets over 50% wins outright, with a deferral to the electoral college if not.  Would encourage national campaigning, increase the importance of third parties, and swing states would still keep their significance in close elections.

Problem there is you just made RFK, Jr. a billionaire. 

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I've seen a lot of racism expressed because I'm mayonnaise white and the racists thought that I would automatically agree with them.  Like I'm part of their safe space. 

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Posted

Up to 257k on the PA firewall. Already 2/3 of the way there. If it does stretch out to the desired 390k, how much of a sure thing is PA at that point? Can I buy champagne yet, instead of whiskey?

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Posted (edited)
On 10/11/2024 at 10:16 AM, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

My dad wasn't paying attention to pat buchanans or any of that shit. He was putting himself through night school while working long days as a carpenter raising 3 kids and paying off his house. My dad didn't listen to politics radio, he was listening to the Eagles. He wasn't watching Fox News, he was playing baseball with his sons. Believe it or not, there's a percentage of the population who doesn't follow politics AT ALL because they do other shit. My dad grew up when the perception of democrats in the south were the same people enforcing Jim Crow. Then he went to Vietnam. And then he came back and basically never updated his political views again until Biden ran for office. I don't know how in the world that sounds unbelievable. It is precisely that my dad retired just as Biden was running in 2020 that he finally had time to sit down and pay attention. And he's adjusted his views accordingly. He said he was holding his nose in 2020, but now in 2024, he's full on flag-waving on board, putting his money where his mouth is. The republicans have Donald Trump to blame.

Gone for two days and I'm 30 pages behind. I'll address this even though it's old.

The above describes exactly what is wrong with how this republic works. "Too busy working and famliy-ing to pay attention."

In this time period you describe, unions were assailed and things like FMLA were debated. As a former soldier, he may have had insight into all the other invasions and military actions we took that cost trillions of dollars which, again, impacts the functionality of government in issues other than war policy.

He might have noticed the radical Christian infiltration of the State School Board and their impact on textbook selection via the Gabler family in the 70s and 80s:

Quote

More important, [the Gablers] have become an integral institution of the New Right, whose agenda they share almost point for point. Their work is commended by Moral Majority leader Jerry Falwell, anti-ERA activist and Eagle Forum founder Phyllis Schlafly, and New Right direct-mail expert Richard Viquerie. They participate in gatherings sponsored by such New Right organizations as the Committee for the Survival of a Free Congress and the Texas-based Pro-Family Forum. Texas Monthly

My father worked hard and supported a family of 6. Like a huge number of Americans, he took the daily newspaper and read it in the morning before going to work. He wasn't a better man than your Dad, but he was casually involved in reading and forming political opinions.

I believe the ill-considered cliche of not discussing politics or religion (I think that was originally directed at family gatherings at Thanksgiving) and a growing anti-intellectual bent in the way we determine who gets their "man card" have played a part in this unravelling of seeing political involvement as a civic responsibility on par with obeying the law.

The ambulatory morons who form the undecided are almost certainly the types who abhor conflict of any kind. Conflict is the way of a republic. Today we have an embrace of ignorance among the uninvolved and the embrace of the basest of emotions for too many that are involved.

Edited by RomaVicta
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Posted
4 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Up to 257k on the PA firewall. Already 2/3 of the way there. If it does stretch out to the desired 390k, how much of a sure thing is PA at that point? Can I buy champagne yet, instead of whiskey?

I’d wait and see what it looks like on November 4. I don’t know if there’s a number where you’re like, it’s in the bag, but Smithley was pretty nails in both 2022 Senate and 2023 SCOPA

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Posted
4 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I struggle with Trump people I know. I try to avoid the topic and convince where I can. But the thing that stops me about Dago’s post above is…this person said they are aware they are voting for someone evil. If that’s ACTUALLY what they said…that’s not lost. That’s a complete understanding and still making a conscious choice for Evil. Hell, the guy could have said he just won’t vote. But he’s willingly voting for evil. If that’s what actually went down, then that isn’t lost. That’s knowingly complicit. 

Yeah, so he said "I know many folks like me they cant stand him but the threat to civilization posed by her is too great to ignore" so I just shot him an e-mail asking about this.

He's not a Trumper - never really acted like a Trumper or help Trumpy beliefs.  My guess is that he is looking through a misinformed financial lens and making a decision based on that.

Y'all... I've had no problem unfriending and ignoring friends who went off the MAGA rails.  I block them out and move on because they're lost.  This friend is not like that which is why it is so confusing and, as I said, disappointing to see the stance he is taking.  I'll work on him.  He is a close friend - I'm not kicking him to the curb... not until the brown shirts come for us... 

Nervous Zac Efron GIF

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Posted
Just now, texasdago said:

Yeah, so he said "I know many folks like me they cant stand him but the threat to civilization posed by her is too great to ignore" so I just shot him an e-mail asking about this.

He sounds insane. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Pancho said:

No.

You’re sort of talking about acculturation, not assimilation.

That's fair.  My "analysis" of the topic is hazy at best.  There is a clear desire or demand on the part of racists that others "assimilate" or acculturate.  The motivation alone seems to negate the desireability of that.

Nevertheless, there seems to be an advantage to a society if the various cultures can find a common ground and the more the better, however that is achieved or attained and whatever it looks like.

Posted
7 minutes ago, texasdago said:

threat to civilization posed by her is too great to ignore

 

7 minutes ago, texasdago said:

He's not a Trumper - never really acted like a Trumper or help Trumpy beliefs

Those things don’t square, dude. She is not a threat to civilization. That is 100% a Trump talking point

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Posted

My wife's best friend is from a multi-generational Hispanic family in Kerrville.  I don't doubt there are some right-wingers in her family tree, given her home town, but she has always been vocally left-leaning, as is her husband (with whom I am very good friends).

The other day she told my wife "I just don't know who to vote for".  Now, I don't think she actively consumes political media, but it goes to show how the smear campaign against Harris can sow seeds of doubt and discontent, even though it's just fear-mongering.  If one is not paying close attention, it can be difficult to suss out the lunacy.

Posted
35 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Up to 257k on the PA firewall. Already 2/3 of the way there. If it does stretch out to the desired 390k, how much of a sure thing is PA at that point? Can I buy champagne yet, instead of whiskey?

I want to blow right through 400k

Henry Winkler Reaction GIF by HBO

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Posted
13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My wife's best friend is from a multi-generational Hispanic family in Kerrville.  I don't doubt there are some right-wingers in her family tree, given her home town, but she has always been vocally left-leaning, as is her husband (with whom I am very good friends).

The other day she told my wife "I just don't know who to vote for".  Now, I don't think she actively consumes political media, but it goes to show how the smear campaign against Harris can sow seeds of doubt and discontent, even though it's just fear-mongering.  If one is not paying close attention, it can be difficult to suss out the lunacy.

I know folks who are left and always have been and are not voting because of issues in the Middle East and Israel.  It is maddening to me.

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