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2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You have to wonder if Putin is even receiving accurate info from the war. You wouldn’t want to be the guy admitting to Putin about slow progress and the high loss of equipment and men. I would imagine that equipment lost to abandonment is not reported because in theory it could be recovered.

It is a good question. He does not appear to have been making decisions based on good information till now.

One reason the Ukrainians are winning the information war is that Russia says there’s not really a war and that it’s really just marginal fighting with Nazi types. So they can’t blast out images of every skirmish they win because it would show that there’s a war going on.  The Ukrainians can show every fucking truck they torch. 

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Ukrayinska Pravda reporting that one of the Ukrainian negotiators has been shot for treason. Haven't seen it on the English version of their site, 

 

The SBU shot a Ukrainian negotiator in Gomel during detention - sources

During the detention of the SBU, Denis Kireev, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation in Gomel, shot dead. He was suspected of high treason.
Source: Senior interlocutors in the power bloc and political circles
Direct speech: "He's already dead."
Details: According to interlocutors in political circles, the Security Service had clear data of Kireev's high treason, including telephone conversations.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/03/5/7328458/

 

Verified Bellingcat dude saying it is true:

 

 

 

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I had to retreat from watching Twitter and other coverage for work, just couldn’t keep up.  
 

What I have seen this morning indicated to me the Russians are making progress.  They are fighting a time line that is stacked against them though.  The sanctions are biting hard, especially the private companies pulling out.  That is impossible to spin around for Putin.

 

I have no faith that the oligarchs will do anything.  They figure they can pillage Ukraine when this is over and recover their fortunes.

 

I have a feeling until Russian oil and gas starts suffering from sanctions Russia will not change its plan.

 

Last comment; reports that German equipment shipped to Ukraine is rusted and piece of dick is no surprise.  Someone up thread talked about how they didn’t even have working helicopters.

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5 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

Ukrayinska Pravda reporting that one of the Ukrainian negotiators has been shot for treason. Haven't seen it on the English version of their site, 

 

The SBU shot a Ukrainian negotiator in Gomel during detention - sources

During the detention of the SBU, Denis Kireev, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation in Gomel, shot dead. He was suspected of high treason.
Source: Senior interlocutors in the power bloc and political circles
Direct speech: "He's already dead."
Details: According to interlocutors in political circles, the Security Service had clear data of Kireev's high treason, including telephone conversations.

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/03/5/7328458/

 

Verified Bellingcat dude saying it is true:

 

 

 

Damn that’s fucking around and finding out writ large.

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15 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I had to retreat from watching Twitter and other coverage for work, just couldn’t keep up.  
 

What I have seen this morning indicated to me the Russians are making progress.  They are fighting a time line that is stacked against them though.  The sanctions are biting hard, especially the private companies pulling out.  That is impossible to spin around for Putin.

 

I have no faith that the oligarchs will do anything.  They figure they can pillage Ukraine when this is over and recover their fortunes.

 

I have a feeling until Russian oil and gas starts suffering from sanctions Russia will not change its plan.

 

Last comment; reports that German equipment shipped to Ukraine is rusted and piece of dick is no surprise.  Someone up thread talked about how they didn’t even have working helicopters.

As much as everyone is screaming to stop buying Russian O&G, it’s going to take time to transition energy systems and economies.  I suspect this summer is when the Russians see a huge drop in deliveries. 
 

Also, the German stuff doesn’t surprise me.  They more or less don’t have a military anymore.

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20 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Last comment; reports that German equipment shipped to Ukraine is rusted and piece of dick is no surprise.  Someone up thread talked about how they didn’t even have working helicopters.

Yeah. And there have been some pretty accusatory statements leaked about this which aren't sitting well here at the moment.


And you bring up Deutschland, but there is something going on at the moment wrt to this.
 

Over the past two or three days there seems to be a slight (but significant) recalibration going on within German politics. Not a u-turn from last weekend’s announcements re NS2 and weapons by any means, but more like a recognition that the continuing rush towards more sanctions and measures against Russia might need to be a bit more thoughtful and not quite as “causally disconnected” as it has been (the "cat competition" and the Uni of Milan cancelling a course on Dostoyevsky - which was rescinded - was brought up as being particularly regarded on the news circuit). It’s almost as if the coalition leadership is waking up after a boozy night and recognizing that they need to tap the brakes a bit out of fear that public sentiment in certain corners of the establishment are starting to careen out of control. 
 

For example, one of the directors at the LMU Medical School (University of Munich Med School) - one of the best in the country - sent an email to the patient referral network saying that Russians aren’t allowed to be treated at clinics under her supervision anymore. This got major press and sparked a furious backlash, so the head of the med school had to come out and make a formal announcement apologizing and clearing things up. Scholz also went on Maybrit Illner last night, which is the biggest political talk show in Germany, and defended the position of the government in supporting Ukraine with weapons and sanctions on Russia, but explicitly said that they won’t be getting into NATO anytime soon and that NATO won’t be getting involved in Ukraine in any way. He also (diplomatically) positioned himself against Zelensky’s complaints against the West from yesterday, which is significant in the sense that it marks the first time since the invasion started where there was clear daylight between the German Govt and Zelensky.


He also said that there won’t be expenditure cuts to pay for the $100B Bundeswehr increase, which immediately caught the eye of the opposition CDU, which insisted on budget cuts as part of the deal. So now that is starting to become a topic of debate within the confines of German domestic politics.




There was also top story in Welt that essentially said, “Germany’s politics are unhealthy in the sense that Germany always tends to find itself rushing headlong into 180 degree swings in the opposite direction of established policies after critical events such as Fukushima, Syrian Refugees, and now Ukraine…this time we need keep from allowing ourselves to blindly get pulled in too far to the other direction like we did with abandoning nuclear energy and the 2015 open door refugee crisis.” Ukraine aside, this is true re German politics. The article closed with this: "Germany should not be intoxicated by its solidarity with Ukraine. Instead, it should regard this form of intervention in the war on the side of democracy against dictatorship as a normal step. And then rationally continue on the path. But with open eyes and a clear compass, and, if necessary, take the right course correction. And never again, in stubborn overconfidence, run in the wrong direction until a full stop and a turnaround again becomes necessary.”
 

They also ran some poll numbers that showed that over 70% of German people are now scared that we are going to be dragged into conflict over there and essentially are concerned the govt is blindly rushing into this whole hog. Scholz has gained a couple of points this week on the basis of being a “decisive leader”, which seems to come at the expense of Annalena, who is suffering with the focus on energy policy, but by Scholz’s actions I think he recognizes that things are about to get really, really difficult (I filled up this morning at $2.30 USD per liter, which is up from $1.52 USD per liter earlier this month)...so what's that...over $8 USD per gallon. No bueno.
 

Doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, but there is a shift over the past week back to Germany’s discomfort with getting too far down this road. CDU just came out as I was writing this and said, 'yeah, we support what we have done so far, but we aren't going to become a war party." Momentum dying out of politicla self preservation.

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8 hours ago, F250 said:

tumblr_inline_png8fzhCpY1ru9j6v_1280.jpg

"I was in the army but I never dug a trench / used to bust my knuckles on a monkey wrench / then I'd go to town and drink / give the girls a pinch / but I don't think they ever even noticed me...Father forgive us for what we must do. You forgive us, and we'll forgive you. We'll forgive each other until we both turn blue and then whistle and go fishing in heaven."  John Prine, World's Greatest 91-Bravo Songwriter

10 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Thanks, I know if I were using one, I'd sure as hell only want to pop out for a second to fire it.

"Go get the Roach!"

 

10 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

Well, let’s just kill each other then.  Any American who is, in any way, supportive of Putin right now needs to go away.  

More in reply to @SL Xpress's note that right-wing American Putin lovers might want to kill hardcore progressives...I think they might be surprised to find more than a few who share their love....It's one of those deals where the extremes meet in the middle. I think with the progressives it's some combo of residual nostalgia for the Soviet Union and hatred of American foreign policy. In this light they could see him as a Castro or Sandinista type, and that it is the Russians who are the real underdogs here.

I think that cohort grows smaller by the day but it will never go away. There are little pockets of leftists who still adore Mao and Stalin.

10 hours ago, J.R. said:

I really wasn’t after an explanation of the feelings of the proto-mongoloid uninformed jerkoff but this is a spot on answer to that question. I am more wondering why there is not mainstream acceptance that we are likely confronting another Hitler. 

Awesomeness in bold....However, Putin is not another Hitler. Yes, he has effectively annexed a similar nation on his borders in Belarus, and there's a good argument that like Hitler this invasion is part of a grand plan for more lebensraum, but:

A) he is not so far genocidal. Some historians argue Hitler kept pushing east in order to get his hands on as many Jews as possible -- his ethnic hatred ran deep enough for racism to trump strategy. Then there were the summary executions of all the various other untermenschen -- Poles, Slavs in general, Gypsies, gays, the handicapped, etc. 

and

B) He doesn't have the juice to be Hitler even if he wanted to. He doesn't have a somewhat powerful regional ally like Italy, who at least proved a nuisance for a couple of years. Germany or Poland are not going to cut a deal with him to carve up Ukraine, giving him time and the ability to marshal resources. There is not a fearsome rising power on the other side of the world declaring death to all his enemies and actively invading their territories. His own country is....well, let's just say the Russians have never been the industrial dynamo as an even down-on-its-heels Germany like that of the Weimar Republic. Unlike the Germans, his army has made no bold breakthrough in military strategy akin to blitzkrieg tactics. (It suddenly occurs to me that he might be having better luck getting through this mud if he'd invaded with gigantic convoys of oxen and mule teams under heavy air support. Joking I guess.....but little could be faring worse than what he's got going on out there.)

Yes, he has nukes. So do we. Advantage: aggy.

So there you have it from MaybeAPedanticAsshole....But words have meaning, and "another Hitler" is overused shorthand.

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58 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I had to retreat from watching Twitter and other coverage for work, just couldn’t keep up.

What I have seen this morning indicated to me the Russians are making progress.  They are fighting a time line that is stacked against them though.  The sanctions are biting hard, especially the private companies pulling out.  That is impossible to spin around for Putin.

I have no faith that the oligarchs will do anything.  They figure they can pillage Ukraine when this is over and recover their fortunes.

I have a feeling until Russian oil and gas starts suffering from sanctions Russia will not change its plan.

Last comment; reports that German equipment shipped to Ukraine is rusted and piece of dick is no surprise.  Someone up thread talked about how they didn’t even have working helicopters.

This war will not end if/when the Russians capture Kyiv and install a puppet government. Even with the advantage of overwhelming military might, it's incredibly difficult to conquer and subjugate a group of people who refuse to be conquered. See: Afghanistan (twice), Vietnam, et al.

So if the Ukrainians (and, almost as importantly, the international economic sanctions) persist, Russia will have no choice but to withdraw. It may take months. It may take years. But at some point, it will happen, most likely with Putin's death. Then the puppet government will collapse almost immediately and the Ukrainians will again have their full independence.

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6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If their vehicles were unable to be supplied by that convoy, they become stationary target, and are gonna bail fast.

We know there are shortages of materials - every knocked-out truck at this point represents anywhere from 2-3 truckloads through even 20+ truckloads (depending on when it was knocked out) of ammo, fuel, food, etc.  We know about the convoy and the knocked-out bridge and the destroyed vehicles that are jamming it up.

So now there's a shit-ton of vehicles that have been stuck on the roads for days now, in cold weather, running their engines, radios, etc., and as mentioned earlier if you get a big convoy stuck, getting gas up to the front of it is difficult, almost impossible, when your ability to travel alongside the road the convoy is on is limited due to mud.

Lack of ammo/supplies, out of gas, battery issues - that all helps take down the air defenses of that convoy.  And it'll start taking down some of the long range artillery.  You don't need gas or batteries to fire most howitzers, but you do need it if you rely on electronic targeting gear - you don't want to hit your own folks, and even if you pull out the manuals and calculate things by hand (or have some targeting computers that are still operational) every round is now extremely precious if you aren't getting more, so you're saving it becuase it needs to 100% be used against the enemy's forces, because they maybe attacking you.

If the attack on Kyiv is truly stalled or even starting to be pushed back, and Russia can't get air defenses/air superiority going, and their ground vehicles are becoming useless.

What the fuck does Putin do?  He's not exactly rolling in cruise missiles or precision guided bombs.  His strike aircraft are vulnerable to Stingers when they get low enough to make their dumb bombs count, but if they stay out of range, their bombs will miss the targets.

What if those divisions going at Kyiv get completely wrecked?  Where does he make up that manpower and all of that equipment?

Meanwhile, the West is still pouring in lots of weapons, and other aid, more drones are coming in and coming online.

What does Putin do to try and save those forces, if things are going badly for them?

I have to think the world is closer to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon than we have been since MacArthur wanted to use one after the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir In Korea. Not saying it will be deployed, but outside of Putin’s assassination or death through natural causes, I don’t understand how this ends. How does Putin escalate to deescalate in a way he finds satisfactory?

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It’s safe to say on the ground Ukrainians are more than holding their own. @956 Worldwide if this turns Russia into North Korea good (my sympathies to the people of Russia though) until Putin is assassinated or someone more rational is put in charge. Television news is more doom and gloom than Twitter from people on the ground (admittedly the spirit of the people of the Ukraine is far more optimistic than the coverage.) 

there is no way Kyiv can hold is what most of y’all who are far more learned than me in this think? You don’t think Ukrainians will and can push them back? It feels like they are winning on the ground. They just need more missiles etc…anti-aircraft stuff. Belarus is being cut off slowly it sounds like. I want to be optimistic they can beat them back but I also know it’s going to be a long war/failed occupation over time.

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1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

I have to think the world is closer to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon than we have been since MacArthur wanted to use one after the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir In Korea. Not saying it will be deployed, but outside of Putin’s assassination or death through natural causes, I don’t understand how this ends. How does Putin escalate to deescalate in a way he finds satisfactory?

 

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6A333681-7C2C-4492-BAD2-B9E00FB51AF3.jpeg

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45 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

incredible footage

Looks like the footage was from a drone.  Wondering if they’re using them to scout for the MANPAD crews, and help them find both the transit corridors + precise time to shoot for maximum effect.  That pilot stood zero chance.  

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20 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

@MaybeACoordinator

Without CR-ing, they are called “tankies” and they’ve been around forever.  And IMHO, they suck ass in the extreme.  Just as Putin lovers on the right are not emblematic of normal conservative minded people, tankies are not representative of your average progressive. 

I've got a tankie aunt. Anti-vax, pro-Putin, extremely left on other matters. 

I wish there was a way to coldly analyze the politics of all this without partisan shit-flinging. I find the psychology fascinating but not the stupid back and forth on here...Oh well. 

 

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Just now, MaybeACoordinator said:

I've got a tankie aunt. Anti-vax, pro-Putin, extremely left on other matters. 

I wish there was a way to coldly analyze the politics of all this without partisan shit-flinging. I find the psychology fascinating but not the stupid back and forth on here...Oh well. 

 

Totally agree.  I think there is a fascinating conversation to be had, but it won’t be had on this site. 
 

*slowly backs away from mic*

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42 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I have to think the world is closer to the use of a tactical nuclear weapon than we have been since MacArthur wanted to use one after the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir In Korea. Not saying it will be deployed, but outside of Putin’s assassination or death through natural causes, I don’t understand how this ends. How does Putin escalate to deescalate in a way he finds satisfactory?

To this end, just got back on here this a.m. and was wondering if there has been any discussion of "Putin's exit ramp" for exactly this reason... the guy's Rubik's Cube is hopelessly scrambled (IMHO) and I saw some stuff on the news overnight to work on giving him some option to "save face" and avoid nukes.  I agree w/you that we are pretty damn close to at least tactical ("localized") nukes and he's to me cracking up.  I don't know if he's got enough marbles left to recognize that they'd be patronizing him but this "exit ramp" strategy is popping up more and more the last day or so.  

Does anyone know what's being bandied about for this type of thing?  

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8 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I've got a tankie aunt. Anti-vax, pro-Putin, extremely left on other matters. 

I wish there was a way to coldly analyze the politics of all this without partisan shit-flinging. I find the psychology fascinating but not the stupid back and forth on here...Oh well. 

 

The thing is, it doesn’t occur anywhere. The only place the conversations occur at all are within the echo chambers of either sides’ chosen method of discourse. And then it’s all one sided. 

Even reasonable conversations I’ve had on public forums are quickly reduced to shit flinging as soon as one person shows up with an agenda, either through conviction or just finding trolling of any sort grand entertainment. Not to mention all the obvious hired hands. I can’t tell you how many fruitless conversations I’ve had with people over the years who are obviously getting paid to post in support of one country or another.  Not just Russia. Israel and China in particular are terrible about it, too. And I’m a huge supporter of Israel, frankly. Not advocating for that position, but just full disclosure. 

We have to find a way to be able to talk to one another on opposite sides of an issue. Have to. I’m not saying this message board, and this thread is where we save the world. That’s ridiculous. But it would be nice if it could be done somewhere. 

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2 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

I had to retreat from watching Twitter and other coverage for work, just couldn’t keep up.  
 

What I have seen this morning indicated to me the Russians are making progress.  They are fighting a time line that is stacked against them though.  The sanctions are biting hard, especially the private companies pulling out.  That is impossible to spin around for Putin.

 

I have no faith that the oligarchs will do anything.  They figure they can pillage Ukraine when this is over and recover their fortunes.

 

I have a feeling until Russian oil and gas starts suffering from sanctions Russia will not change its plan.

 

Last comment; reports that German equipment shipped to Ukraine is rusted and piece of dick is no surprise.  Someone up thread talked about how they didn’t even have working helicopters.

This plan only works if they have access to outside markets.  If the political will is strong, then that access dries up.  Of course they are hedging their bets on the greed and corruptibility of foreigners, which is likely a safe bet.  

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1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


I’m sure they’re being flooded with forms with people desperate to get back

 

1 hour ago, Goofyboy said:


If you’re a Russian stranded abroad… do you really want to go home? I’d bet they are filling out asylum papers.

Shit, all the Russians living abroad are suddenly Ukrainian to whoever will listen. 

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Wonder why he isn’t 20 feet from these women like he is with the heads of military 

That's it. Want to kill Putin? Classic honeypot is all that's necessary. 

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7 hours ago, PTINS said:
 What's the difference between a Dollar and a Ruble? A Dollar
Post image

When this has calmed down, I’m looking forward to going to Russia with Tree Fiddy, converting it to Tree Fiddy million rubles and making it fucking RAIN at the finest strip club in Moscow.

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kIe9VuIj_normal.jpg
 
 
The Russian Naval Task Force which consists of Multiple Amphibious Assault Ships is reported to be returning to Port in Crimea after Missing their Weather Window for the Second Time yesterday for a Planned Amphibious Operation near the Ukrainian Black Sea Coastal city of Odessa.
 
Weather will not be Permitting for any Naval Amphibious Operations again in the Black Sea until at least Mid-next week.
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