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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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32 minutes ago, NOMAAA said:

Fascinating read today. Thanks to all contributors. Anyone else think a transfer of power might end up as one of those devil you know deals? Putins a bad dude. Next man up surely could be worse. 

He ain’t gonna be around forever, anyway. No reason to fear something happening that’s bound to happen. 

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2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Fuck Putin - I bet he’s dead before a year is out. 

I dont know.

hes a cunt, a fucking lunatic, a meglomaniac, and a cruel, ruthless human being.

 

but hes also a fucking survivor. 

You dont get to be accused of disloyalty by the Soviet KGB, and have his only punishment be resigning his active duty status with the KGB and otherwise get to return to Leningrad and walk away scott free, WITHOUT haveing some serious survivor instincts.

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2 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I dont know.

hes a cunt, a fucking lunatic, a meglomaniac, and a cruel, ruthless human being.

 

but hes also a fucking survivor. 

You dont get to be accused of disloyalty by the Soviet KGB, and have his only punishment be resigning his active duty status with the KGB and otherwise get to return to Leningrad and walk away scott free, WITHOUT haveing some serious survivor instincts.

Gaddafi was a survivor as well, until he got stabbed in the ass and bled out in sewer.  There's still hope there.

But trading Putin for Pringles wouldn't be great either.  The best we could have hoped for with that is pistols at dawn and both of them to get their heads blown off.  Ultimately, though, Russia isn't going to change without a complete defeat and humiliation on the battlefield; and even if that does happen there is a lot of reason to think that humiliation and defeat like this wouldn't be enough to spark any real change.  They are collectively a poisoned society, and until they internally decide via regular citizens rising up and forcing (and in turn earning) change, not much will happen, we will see them just trading despots.  Given their current status, I'd bet on another despot well before I'd bet on anything else.  

The good news though, at least they shot down some of their own air force today.  

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1 hour ago, AUS-97HORN said:

I dont know.

hes a cunt, a fucking lunatic, a meglomaniac, and a cruel, ruthless human being.

 

but hes also a fucking survivor. 

You dont get to be accused of disloyalty by the Soviet KGB, and have his only punishment be resigning his active duty status with the KGB and otherwise get to return to Leningrad and walk away scott free, WITHOUT haveing some serious survivor instincts.

he knew shit. And was the access to knowing more shit. 

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I wonder... being that every scenario ends up with a psychopath in charge of Russia... does the US have a plan in place to just swoop in at a certain time in between regimes to neutralize their nukes? Because they are fucking nothing without those and it changes the whole world dynamic. 

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39 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

I wonder... being that every scenario ends up with a psychopath in charge of Russia... does the US have a plan in place to just swoop in at a certain time in between regimes to neutralize their nukes? Because they are fucking nothing without those and it changes the whole world dynamic. 

They have way too many nukes in too many different locations. There'd be no way of getting them all for sure.

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3 hours ago, NOMAAA said:

Fascinating read today. Thanks to all contributors. Anyone else think a transfer of power might end up as one of those devil you know deals? Putins a bad dude. Next man up surely could be worse. 

After this debacle of an invasion my biggest fear is that Russia actually finds someone competent. 

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8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Overseas assets are on contract with the host nation. So they continue. Notice that the countries they operate in are very tight with Russia. I say unleash A-10's if they are close to US forces. That includes most of the Sahel. 

Wagner has been allowed to operate in Africa as an arm of Russian foreign policy. They provide a convenient cutout and a way around deploying Russian active duty abroad. The Russian MOD allows recruiting and access to Russian military equipment and resources. Money flows up.

But how does Prigozhin and Wagner continue to operate like this after what just happened? Sustaining operations in Africa without support of the Russian MOD is very different than making a thunder run on Moscow to drive a point home. 
 

He may have been promised a lot of things. But I don’t see how this organization continues to exist at all and it will be fascinating to see how they adapt for activities in Africa.  

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16 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Lack of decisive response from RuAF and especially VVS reveal Putin retains firm grasp on RuAF command and that Shoigu/Gerasimov willing to let Putin bargain over their fate as a column of mercenaries roll toward Moscow. Either no order came or the commanders in the field ignored it. 

 

This is a critical point I think most are missing

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I wonder... being that every scenario ends up with a psychopath in charge of Russia... does the US have a plan in place to just swoop in at a certain time in between regimes to neutralize their nukes? Because they are fucking nothing without those and it changes the whole world dynamic. 

How would you suggest neutralizing 15k warheads or whatever it is they have?
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1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Horowitz gets it right. All by design, VVP would have been horrified if 10s of thousands came out to streets for him. Direct political action is terrifying to VVP (rants about the Maidan, about color revolutions). For him the solution is not to inspire fanatical loyalty (he can lose it) but instill a sense of submission to immutable reality. The willingness of Rostov residents to acknowledge that whoever has the gun at the moment is in charge reveals success of Putin’s society building. 

Some of that is society building, but some of that is simply pushing society in the direction they already lean into. 

A reading of any kind of Russian literature, both in the past and contemporary, reveals a sense of fatalism which might as well be the chief characteristic of the Russian identity. Along with every character possessing 12 names used interchangeably.

To me that’s the biggest yoke Ukraine is in the midst of breaking away from (the fatalism, at least).

I’m with you on the double down on internal repression and becoming even more calloused regarding war casualties. Russian society equates fear with respect, ruthlessness with strength, and values stability over freedom. And Putin values staying in power over anything else. 

My problem with all the 1917 comparisons - and there are plenty of lessons to draw from - is that the revolutionaries were true believers on a crusade. That’s something both Putin and Prigozhin lack. It felt like Putin was trying to speak in those types of tones as he galvanized the public for popular support of the conflict in Ukraine, but as you’ve stated, he wants a submissive citizenry, not zealots. 

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Well that was all a big letdown for those of us expecting kinetic action, but overall I don’t think it could have gone worse for Putin.  This was his hand picked guy completely going off the reservation and making him look weak and not in control.  The digging of trenches across highways, officials fleeing Moscow, the lack of response by the security services all point to panic and complete surprise.  
 

I agree with the assessment that this does nothing to cause a decrease in effort in Ukraine as that die was cast and he has doubled and tripled down on it.  If he loses Crimea , which he will, he’s toast anyway.  But there is chaos coming in Russia.  You can see it by the response to their mutiny.  Which by the way is a lot better way to describe this weekend adventure than a coup.

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7 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

I wonder... being that every scenario ends up with a psychopath in charge of Russia... does the US have a plan in place to just swoop in at a certain time in between regimes to neutralize their nukes? Because they are fucking nothing without those and it changes the whole world dynamic. 

All of them? At once?

No. 

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8 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Gaddafi was a survivor as well, until he got stabbed in the ass and bled out in sewer.  There's still hope there.

But trading Putin for Pringles wouldn't be great either.  The best we could have hoped for with that is pistols at dawn and both of them to get their heads blown off.  Ultimately, though, Russia isn't going to change without a complete defeat and humiliation on the battlefield; and even if that does happen there is a lot of reason to think that humiliation and defeat like this wouldn't be enough to spark any real change.  They are collectively a poisoned society, and until they internally decide via regular citizens rising up and forcing (and in turn earning) change, not much will happen, we will see them just trading despots.  Given their current status, I'd bet on another despot well before I'd bet on anything else.  

The good news though, at least they shot down some of their own air force today.  

The only way Russia changes is to get them to surrender their nukes, and then kick them in their own borders for a few generations and see if they change themselves. Maybe they’ll build up a functioning society from their own isolation. 
 

so Russia is never changing. 

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13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The only way Russia changes is to get them to surrender their nukes, and then kick them in their own borders for a few generations and see if they change themselves. Maybe they’ll build up a functioning society from their own isolation. 
 

so Russia is never changing. 

What would you say if you were asked to surrender your NIL war chest?

 

It ain’t happenin’ 

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We got excited because we thought that everything was going to unravel right in front of us in a 48 hour period. It’s understandable. We were on the verge of seeing what would be the greatest geopolitical event since the fall of the Berlin Wall and maybe we still did. It took two whole years from the Wall going down to the dissolving of the Soviet Union.

 The Wall falling was the breaking away of the most visible non-nuclear symbol of Soviet power in the European front. Russia’s most powerful and seasoned troops withdrawing from the newest Russian/European conflict border, Ukraine, turning their guns east, and holding the Kremlin hostage to meet demands was our modern day equivalent. People are openly wondering “how could Prog possibly believe this is over and he is safe” but the same could be asked of Putin’s mindset. Both sides of that conflict are irreparably damaged. Imagine how many oligarchs just saw their fortunes flash before their eyes. Imagine how much chatter about Putin’s weakness has been picked up by the FSB. 

May we live in interesting times, indeed. 

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3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Horowitz gets it right. All by design, VVP would have been horrified if 10s of thousands came out to streets for him. Direct political action is terrifying to VVP (rants about the Maidan, about color revolutions). For him the solution is not to inspire fanatical loyalty (he can lose it) but instill a sense of submission to immutable reality. The willingness of Rostov residents to acknowledge that whoever has the gun at the moment is in charge reveals success of Putin’s society building. 

 

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