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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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I think one thing about this is these tanks lack infantry support and are just tooling down the highway.  Between that and the unpreparedness of Russian troops, it seems like they're sitting ducks.

Apparently their reactionary armor is nothing more than a big Mac box painted drab.
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3 hours ago, crash_davis said:

 

Carl Spackler Voice: “This is a hybrid. This is a cross ah, of Whiskey, Vodka, and Rum. The amazing stuff about this is you can destroy a dozen Russian armored vehicles in an afternoon with it, take it home and just get wasted to the bejeezus-belt that night on this stuff.”

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3 minutes ago, Homercles said:

NOW they’re trying to pummel them with massive ALCMs all over the country?  You’d think they’d have done some of that at the start to destroy birds lined up on aprons at airfields, fuel depots, armories, etc.  This isn’t ‘shock and awe’, it’s been ‘whatevs and meh.’

Long time ago read my Dad’s copy of The Generals War about Gulf 1, and goes into detail on how they took Col Wardens initial surgical air strike approach and greatly expanded it into a punishing pan-Iraq plan.  Was a fascinating read.  Everything was coordinated down to the minute with extensive planning and methodical rolling back of defenses using the best asset for the mission.  
 

Russia has been acting like they expected Crimea 2: Open Arms Boogaloo and are throwing shit at the wall piecemeal. 

Yeah plan is always do massive electronic jamming with wild weasels.  Send in cruise missile to take out command and control, radar, air assets,AA, destroy air fields, and then massive bombing campaign.  And then targets of opportunity.  Then roll in with troops.  That's shock and awe.  This is shake fists at cloud

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Just a

3 minutes ago, troph said:

makes me wonder if Putin has moved to show threats to NATO with subs while he blitzs the Ukrainians with air raids/bombs/missiles in a few minutes.

 

This.  That Orion is likely circling a Sub to let the Russians know we know exactly where it is. 

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23 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

The reports of Russian troops not know who were fighting completely baffles me.  They have been on the border of Ukraine for months.  Who did they think they were fighting?  NAZIS?  

that is probably just disinformation being put out. anything to try to demoralize russians and sow discord against Putin(which I am all for obviously).   the amount of disinfo in this war over social media has to be mind boggling.  

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22 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

The reports of Russian troops not know who were fighting completely baffles me.  They have been on the border of Ukraine for months.  Who did they think they were fighting?  NAZIS?  

Welcome to Those Gosh Darn Kids of Today. Last semester at my Juco we had a new student weeping. Her phone had died, I guess she didn't have the charger, so she couldn't use it to guide her home back along the exact same road she had driven that morning.

Librarian jumped on the computer and was gonna print the kid a map. What, a map? how could that help? Her phone had died.

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Yep. The losses are going to be real, horrific, and catastrophic.
Ukraine’s chances are based on “there’s more of us than there are of them,” having a lot greater motivation, and having individual- fired weapons that can take out vehicles. Just brutal attrition. The Russians can capture territory, but they can’t rest and think they’re gonna hold it.

Cities will be lost. Ukraine will eventually run out of armored vehicles. But if they have javelins, rifles, Molotovs, and a will to fight….they can’t actually lose.

I think Ukraine already won this. The best outcome is for the Russian military leadership to arrest putin and the oligarchy. The smart play is for a couple of oligarchs to coordinate with the military leadership and recall them. Arrest and kill putin. Become an interim dictator until candidates are available for elections later this year.

Plus this absolute Custer fuck of a plan undermines everything about the mystique of putin and the military of Russia. They are a flock of chihuahuas.
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I think Ukraine already won this. The best outcome is for the Russian military leadership to arrest putin and the oligarchy. The smart play is for a couple of oligarchs to coordinate with the military leadership and recall them. Arrest and kill putin. Become an interim dictator until candidates are available for elections later this year.

Plus this absolute Custer fuck of a plan undermines everything about the mystique of putin and the military of Russia. They are a flock of chihuahuas.

Don’t take away Brisket’s doom fantasies. It’s all he has.
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8 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeah plan is always do massive electronic jamming with wild weasels.  Send in cruise missile to take out command and control, radar, air assets,AA, destroy air fields, and then massive bombing campaign.  And then targets of opportunity.  Then roll in with troops.  That's shock and awe.  This is shake fists at cloud

The more I see the more I believe that Putin really thought he could come in, make a bit of noise, and install his guys before the West could even agree on sanctions. Remember he is a spy/secret policeman and not a military man.  That’s far more his speed and no one would tell him no.

This is not good news, by any means. He’s still an aggressively amoral man with not a lot more to lose and no brave “no men” around him. 

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4 minutes ago, Nivek said:


I think Ukraine already won this. The best outcome is for the Russian military leadership to arrest putin and the oligarchy. The smart play is for a couple of oligarchs to coordinate with the military leadership and recall them. Arrest and kill putin. Become an interim dictator until candidates are available for elections later this year.

Plus this absolute Custer fuck of a plan undermines everything about the mystique of putin and the military of Russia. They are a flock of chihuahuas.

Let’s let Russian Long Range Aviation land first, there’s still plenty of time for everyone to be a loser. 

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11 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

They knew the sub was there.  They've been tracking 3 subs in the black sea for a hot minute.  The P8 is there to fuck with his head.

 

The sound of active sonar buoy being heard is the most fucking scary sound I've ever heard in my life. It is a whooonnnngg sound and you can fucking feel that shit.

Does Ukraine have any subs of their own?

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8 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Welcome to Those Gosh Darn Kids of Today. Last semester at my Juco we had a new student weeping. Her phone had died, I guess she didn't have the charger, so she couldn't use it to guide her home back along the exact same road she had driven that morning.

Librarian jumped on the computer and was gonna print the kid a map. What, a map? how could that help? Her phone had died.

When I was a freshman at UT in spring of 1997,  before cell phones, I told my roommate I would take him home to San Antonio because he didn’t have a car. He couldn’t find his home. We had to call his dad and get directions from a pay phone. Pops was NOT happy. 

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10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

that is probably just disinformation being put out. anything to try to demoralize russians and sow discord against Putin(which I am all for obviously).   the amount of disinfo in this war over social media has to be mind boggling.  

I’d lean more toward the standard response of any 17-20 year old who just realized he’s completely fucked. I wonder how often cops hear “I don’t know what I was doing there, just hanging out.” 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
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1 hour ago, BillyGoatHill said:

For decades, and different conflicts, we've had troops where they are not "officially" there.

And while a Talon can be used as a FARP, it's unlikely that one was used to just bring in supplies or weapons. Regular Herc or C17 could accomplish that. 

Or it is being used as a head game to Russia that we just delivered Delta team to the Ukraine border.

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9 minutes ago, Nivek said:


I think Ukraine already won this. The best outcome is for the Russian military leadership to arrest putin and the oligarchy. The smart play is for a couple of oligarchs to coordinate with the military leadership and recall them. Arrest and kill putin. Become an interim dictator until candidates are available for elections later this year.

Plus this absolute Custer fuck of a plan undermines everything about the mystique of putin and the military of Russia. They are a flock of chihuahuas.

If we were smart we’d be shouting this scenario to each and every Oligarch over there (privately of course) saying whoever delivers on this gets to keep their wealth and status and have asylum if they’d like. Whoever doesn’t won’t ever get their shit unfrozen- it will be confiscated. 

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6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The more I see the more I believe that Putin really thought he could come in, make a bit of noise, and install his guys before the West could even agree on sanctions. Remember he is a spy/secret policeman and not a military man.  That’s far more his speed and no one would tell him no.

This is not good news, by any means. He’s still an aggressively amoral man with not a lot more to lose and no brave “no men” around him. 

Absolutely.  That's the machinations of a mad man.  He asks his generals hey can we take Ukraine.  First guy says no.  He shoots him.  Second guy says no.  Shoots him.  3rd guy says yes.  He asks how long.  That guy says 3 months.  Shoots him.  4th guy says 3 weeks.  Shoots him.  5 guy says 3 days.  Shoots him.  6th guy says 3 hours.  Putin invades.

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53 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

i'm surprised the Russians didn't start tracking this sooner. maybe they have been the entire time and keeping quiet about it hoping to find Zelensky. but the cat is out of the bag now. i'm sure Zelensky and his team are offline.

Better yet, turn on Zelensky's usual phone, put it on a drone, and fly it around over a Russian supply dump.

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5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’d lean more toward the standard response of any 17-20 year old who just realized he’s completely fucked. I wonder how often cops hear “I don’t know what I was doing there, just hanging out.” 

too many are supposedly saying that. I think it's quite plausible to be true.

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If we were smart we’d be shouting this scenario to each and every Oligarch over there (privately of course) saying whoever delivers on this gets to keep their wealth and status and have asylum if they’d like. Whoever doesn’t won’t ever get their shit unfrozen- it will be confiscated. 

You’re placing your hope in the wrong Russians. There are no good examples of this since Catherine the Great. Russian people take out tsars, not their boyars. 

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1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Yeah that would be tough to backtrack from. Biting the bear in the ass when he’s turned towards Ukraine could regain a lot of good will among his countrymen

 

Imagine if Chechnya and Georgia picked now to act up 

Kadyrov has to be feeling very uneasy right about now. Good, I hope they string that thug up

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3 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

You’re placing your hope in the wrong Russians. There are no good examples of this since Catherine the Great. Russian people take out tsars, not their boyars. 

I wouldn’t say hope. I’d say I’d be making this offer to everyone that has “something to lose” if this doesn’t go well.  
Might not work but if it did it would be the quickest and best solution for all. 

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They'd be appreciative but that's not really the criteria.  It's a little subjective but does have some baselines, including economics, military strength, and ability to not invade people just because you might have a small dick or hate yourself for being a gay uncreative painter (okay the last one is a maybe).  This is a good primer for it, although the specs are much more technical.

However, of course Sweden and Finland are eligible in droves, that's not the issue.  Those countries at this point don't want to join - they feel they're formidable enough to go on their own and enjoy their independence, and their people have consistently voted as recently as last year by 2-1 not to join.  Nothing against NATO, and they often (and in this case too) work closely with NATO countries to provide bases, installations for troop containment, and money.  So why wouldn't they join?  Part of it is historical - Finland was much more aligned with the Soviets through the years, and only after 1989 have they moved to a more pro-Western ideology.  Sweden was not under the grip of the Soviets, but they're fiercely independent and really since WWII have preferred to be self-contained in their own defenses (although the did secretly cooperate with now-NATO countries in WWII and after).  There was actually a time where Sweden resented U.S. involvement (up to the1980's), but that's thawed.  Aart of this I also think is national pride - when the Nazis and Rooskies went up there to try to occupy, they got their asses shot off.   Both have the freedom and autonomy to call their own shots in a warn which they have preferred, but they've both kept up very diligently with NATO specs on equipment etc. (Finland just bought a shitload of F-35's, e.g.).   The % of the population in each who wants to join NATO has grown through the years, although in each it's still under 50%.

Russia's recent threat won't really sway them - part of their independent spirit is "we're not running to NATO because you threatened us."  That would be against the very thing they say they are.  My guess is that they'll slowly work up to joining within the next decade.  But for now, especially with this shitshow, I don't think they see a reason to fearfully go crawling to NATO, when as it is, they're essentially working side by side with them, yet retaining their own preferred independence.

They also provide a valuable role being in the middle. They can perform diplomatic and helpful tasks for either side if they’re not officially committed to either side.
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7 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Or it is being used as a head game to Russia that we just delivered Delta team to the Ukraine border.

I think the most plausible use is, as someone else noted, refueling helicopter local assets.  I’m not sure if standard KC-130Js have the more generic system to refuel multiple types of probe/drogue setups but I thought I’d read that the MC-130s do.  
 

Also makes sense to have a more highly capable AFSOC bird and crew so close to the action.  They can do Search and Rescue, resupply SpecOps types, probably have better ELINT and night capabilities and are flown by cream of the crop crew.  

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