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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

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21 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Once you get this, are you immune and, if so, how long?

Generally it would seem so. There have been sporadic reports of recovered patients testing positive, but it's a small enough group that it could be more that those people had not yet fully recovered, or had false negatives (estimated at 20-30 percent of negatives).

How long? Well, there's only one way to answer that question.

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3 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

They originally thought you were.  Then someone allegedly recovered and caught it again.  Now no one knows.  

going from memory - it was reported to happen in at least two different countries.

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2 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Read that Disney is in a pickle over their timeshare vehicle DVC.  Apparently DVC runs at 95% occupancy year round and now they don't have the DVC rooms to accommodate all DVC owners in an abbreviated operating year.

I have to assume it's a fractional points model, it doesn't matter if they can't occupy the unit (similar to hurricane damage). It's a use it or lose it type thing.  The association pays the maintenance, but the developer is the one who is fucked...  tour flow and sales crater.  Such a sleazy business, but a wildly profitable one assuming you can convert units.

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Haven't seen anything on surly yet about the new data coming in from France on HCQ treatment for COVID-19, but it looks like it's ineffective against Rona at the hospitalization stage. From the abstract:

This study included 181 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia; 84 received HCQ within 48 hours of admission (HCQ group) and 97 did not (no-HCQ group). Initial severity was well balanced between the groups. In the weighted analysis, 20.2% patients in the HCQ group were transferred to the ICU or died within 7 days vs 22.1% in the no-HCQ group (16 vs 21 events, relative risk [RR] 0.91, 95% CI 0.47-1.80). In the HCQ group, 2.8% of the patients died within 7 days vs 4.6% in the no-HCQ group (3 vs 4 events, RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.13-2.89), and 27.4% and 24.1%, respectively, developed acute respiratory distress syndrome within 7 days (24 vs 23 events, RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.65-2.00). Eight patients receiving HCQ (9.5%) experienced electrocardiogram modifications requiring HCQ discontinuation. Interpretation These results do not support the use of HCQ in patients hospitalised for documented SARS-CoV-2-positive hypoxic pneumonia.

That sucks, but it seems that hydroxychloroquine plus zinc might be effective.

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Boy, looking at flights to NYC for a long weekend vacation in early May and I have to tell you, you can get a round trip for $287 and have your pick of anywhere on the plane with United. Seattle is $301 and Vegas is $401 through the end of June. Hotels are through the floor for the same period. We went ahead and locked up trip to all 3 places. Reservations at 7:30 available at every nice restaurant you can imagine in every one of those cities, too. 

We figure we’ll go catch corona in NYC, enjoy ourselves while there, come back to Houston and convalesce if necessary, and then run amok in the other places along with the rest of Branch Covidians who’ve all recovered. Meanwhile, gmr5389272794 and the rest of the despondent pearl clutchers can continue to shelter in place and advocate patience well into 2022 until we can all be certain. 

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21 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:


There’s been quite a few cases of reoccurrence documented in South Korea so far.

But we can’t be sure if they are reoccurrences, faulty tests at some stage, or re-emergence of original infection that never quite went away but was low enough to fool the test into a negative. 

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14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

But we can’t be sure if they are reoccurrences, faulty tests at some stage, or re-emergence of original infection that never quite went away but was low enough to fool the test into a negative. 

I strongly suspect that the issue is poor math skills rather than reinfection. People around the globe have difficulties understanding the predictive value of a test. Let's take the antibody test as an example. In 5% of cases it diagnosis someone with coronavirus who did not have the disease and in 5% of cases it diagnosis someone without exposure who in fact had been exposed. Now understand that only a small percent of the world have been infected by coronavirus, let's say 1 in 100 people. What this means for the antibody test is that if 100 people are tested, 5 people will think they were infected but were not and 1 person will actually have been infected. Hopefully, you see the problem.

Now, many of you will say the qRT-PCR test is extremely accurate. Well, you are correct, sort of. The problem with molecular diagnosis of RNA viruses is sample collection is difficult and the test itself requires technical skills. So given a good sample and quality components, qRT-PCR is the gold standard. However, if the swab was taken incorrectly, if the sample was not kept at temperature, if there was too long of a lag between collection and testing, if test components weren't good, and if there was cross-contamination then the test will not be correct. These inaccuracies have not been tested in a worldwide pandemic so the percent accuracy from collection to test result is unknown. If the inaccuracies are high, there will be many misdiagnosed cases.

Edited by Bevo
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50 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Boy, looking at flights to NYC for a long weekend vacation in early May and I have to tell you, you can get a round trip for $287 and have your pick of anywhere on the plane with United. Seattle is $301 and Vegas is $401 through the end of June. Hotels are through the floor for the same period. We went ahead and locked up trip to all 3 places. Reservations at 7:30 available at every nice restaurant you can imagine in every one of those cities, too. 

We figure we’ll go catch corona in NYC, enjoy ourselves while there, come back to Houston and convalesce if necessary, and then run amok in the other places along with the rest of Branch Covidians who’ve all recovered. Meanwhile, gmr5389272794 and the rest of the despondent pearl clutchers can continue to shelter in place and advocate patience well into 2022 until we can all be certain. 

Every poor person I know either has Vegas as a favorite vacation spot or a dream destination. That’s not a joke at all either. Every one. Can’t fathom someone with any semblance of class and actual money wanting to go there.

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44 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I strongly suspect that the issue is poor math skills rather than reinfection. People around the globe have difficulties understanding the predictive value of a test. Let's take the antibody test as an example. In 5% of cases it diagnosis someone with coronavirus who did not have the disease and in 5% of cases it diagnosis someone without exposure who in fact had been exposed. Now understand that only a small percent of the world have been infected by coronavirus, let's say 1 in 100 people. What this means for the antibody test is that if 100 people are tested, 5 people will think they were infected but were not and 1 person will actually have been infected. Hopefully, you see the problem.

Now, many of you will say the qRT-PCR test is extremely accurate. Well, you are correct, sort of. The problem with molecular diagnosis of RNA viruses is sample collection is difficult and the test itself requires technical skills. So given a good sample and quality components, qRT-PCR is the gold standard. However, if the swab was taken incorrectly, if the sample was not kept at temperature, if there was too long of a lag between collection and testing, if test components weren't good, and if there was cross-contamination then the test will not be correct. These inaccuracies have not been tested in a worldwide pandemic so the percent accuracy from collection to test result is unknown. If the inaccuracies are high, there will be many misdiagnosed cases.

The saying in the analytical science world (and likely in other professions) is fast,cheap, accurate:  choose 2. You rarely get all 3. Sacrificing accuracy (or precision but in this case it’s a binary) for speed and cost seems to be the choice being made. Or maybe there’s no choice to make at this point, that’s all there is. 
 

btw if 1 in 100 are positive, then I could market a sip of water that always returns a negative result as 99% effective on a random sample set. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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2 hours ago, achooloco said:

 

shit, wasn't trying to quote myself but still lost. China is obviously bullshit for a number of reasons, and japan seems to have wanted to not cancel the olympics so they lied until they couldn't. From following this thread, seems like SK never shut down and got their shit together on wide spread testing for a variety of reasons, but they're a tiny ass densely populated country so hard to compare to us. Haven't seen anything to suggest SK "success" numbers are not "forward-looking, [or] relatively honest" but I might have missed that or misinterpreted that post.

Nothing false about the SK numbers, it's just not a good model to look at because there is no way most of the rest of the world could or would follow what they did.   If someone is infected, they publish online the route that person took based on cell phone location data and then they send text messages to anyone who came near them.  They also send you a text message if you are heading toward an infected person.   Their government has access to everywhere you go and everyone you come near.   The NSA probably has the same info,  but they don't admit it, and they don't let local governments send you text messages based on it.   

Singapore is another place that's trying the Big Brother Technical route. They want everyone to install a bluetooth app that exchanges data with every phone it comes near.    https://www.gov.sg/article/help-speed-up-contact-tracing-with-tracetogether  While probably very useful for fighting Covid-19, most US and Europeans probably wouldn't go for that.

 

Edited by 0xdeadbeef
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30 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Every poor person I know either has Vegas as a favorite vacation spot or a dream destination. That’s not a joke at all either. Every one. Can’t fathom someone with any semblance of class and actual money wanting to go there.

Ha

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Boy, looking at flights to NYC for a long weekend vacation in early May ... Reservations at 7:30 available at every nice restaurant you can imagine in every one of those cities, too. 

Surly response: LOL at reservations, let's see how that turns out for you, hope you like take out.

Real response: depending on the date, you might get lucky and be able to enter and stay inside an actual restaurant. As of right now, I'd guess you won't be able to especially because everyone just got mandated to wear masks at all times in public unless you can social distance. If I was betting on the info available right now, I'd say probably 50/50 restaurants will allow dining in by that time. Hopefully you get lucky.

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1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Every poor person I know either has Vegas as a favorite vacation spot or a dream destination. That’s not a joke at all either. Every one. Can’t fathom someone with any semblance of class and actual money wanting to go there.

Not poor, do enjoy Vegas even though I don’t gamble. I may have no semblance of class though, so one of your points could be true. We go 3 or so nights a year. We get a corner suite at the Cosmo, eat at a few high end restaurants, wife shops, we come home. All in all it’s always a good getaway.

TN shut down schools for the remainder of the school year today. There was also some discussion about October being the earliest schools would potentially go back. Our private school is talking through online only, split in-school / online schedules, etc with no plans of starting in August under normal circumstances. We’re planning for January 2021 at the earliest being back on campus with a full school. How much this has changed in 3 or so weeks is mind blowing. We got out for Spring Break 1 month ago Monday with no thought as to not coming back after Spring Break. Now it may be 8 months before we go back at the earliest.

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1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Nothing false about the SK numbers, it's just not a good model to look at because there is no way most of the rest of the world could or would follow what they did.   If someone is infected, they publish online the route that person took based on cell phone location data and then they send text messages to anyone who came near them.  They also send you a text message if you are heading toward an infected person.   Their government has access to everywhere you go and everyone you come near.   The NSA probably has the same info,  but they don't admit it, and they don't let local governments send you text messages based on it.   

Singapore is another place that's trying the Big Brother Technical route. They want everyone to install a bluetooth app that exchanges data with every phone it comes near.    https://www.gov.sg/article/help-speed-up-contact-tracing-with-tracetogether  While probably very useful for fighting Covid-19, most US and Europeans probably wouldn't go for that.

 

Yep. I think the UAE is doing similar shit. Talking to a few friends there to confirm. But for Singapore they had a large spike today. Most was among their migrant workers. And if anyone is getting tracked it the worker from India or Bangladesh. 

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How much is back dated testing? I really don’t trust anything at this point. 
 

I know we are still expecting to peak in early May. My wife is a nurse practitioner and the hospitals are empty in Austin as of today. 
 

Hospital admittance and ICU numbers are all that should really matter. But it seems like St David’s, Seton and BSW don’t want to release those numbers

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26 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

How much is back dated testing? I really don’t trust anything at this point. 
 

I know we are still expecting to peak in early May. My wife is a nurse practitioner and the hospitals are empty in Austin as of today. 
 

Hospital admittance and ICU numbers are all that should really matter. But it seems like St David’s, Seton and BSW don’t want to release those numbers

Hospitals are absolutely empty. They will be the next big wave of furloughs and layoffs

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32 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

How much is back dated testing? I really don’t trust anything at this point. 
 

I know we are still expecting to peak in early May. My wife is a nurse practitioner and the hospitals are empty in Austin as of today. 
 

Hospital admittance and ICU numbers are all that should really matter. But it seems like St David’s, Seton and BSW don’t want to release those numbers

Head Nurse? 

Hay's has not had an update since Monday. I know two new cases and no mention on the tracker. I think in Texas our attitude is we will just deal with it when it comes. Hope it works. As a parent with a Senior in HS, she is not going back this school year. 

And agree, lot of people are about to say fuck it, open up the outlet malls and movie theaters. Summer is near bitch, I wanna go drink some claws and float the river. 

 

Sorry, just rechecked. After 4 days of no change Hays went from 84 to 93. 

Edited by InkaUtexas
bad info on the bitch.
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5 hours ago, Captainant said:

Haven't seen anything on surly yet about the new data coming in from France on HCQ treatment for COVID-19, but it looks like it's ineffective against Rona at the hospitalization stage. From the abstract:

This study included 181 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia; 84 received HCQ within 48 hours of admission (HCQ group) and 97 did not (no-HCQ group). Initial severity was well balanced between the groups. In the weighted analysis, 20.2% patients in the HCQ group were transferred to the ICU or died within 7 days vs 22.1% in the no-HCQ group (16 vs 21 events, relative risk [RR] 0.91, 95% CI 0.47-1.80). In the HCQ group, 2.8% of the patients died within 7 days vs 4.6% in the no-HCQ group (3 vs 4 events, RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.13-2.89), and 27.4% and 24.1%, respectively, developed acute respiratory distress syndrome within 7 days (24 vs 23 events, RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.65-2.00). Eight patients receiving HCQ (9.5%) experienced electrocardiogram modifications requiring HCQ discontinuation. Interpretation These results do not support the use of HCQ in patients hospitalised for documented SARS-CoV-2-positive hypoxic pneumonia.

I have a close friend that is a pharmacist and an older gentleman here in Texas. His pharmacy services many of the patients from an adjacent hospital in a metro suburb. 

I asked him tonight what he would ask to be treated with if he were to be diagnosed with the Corona. 
He told me that he would want the Hydroxycloroquine and Azithromycin treatment, based on the prescriptions that he was filling for the doctors in his hospital. 
I asked about the Hydroxycloroquine and Zinc that I had read that might be the better treatment, and he told me that it was impossible to get Zinc anywhere right now.


Your mileage may vary. FWIW

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2 hours ago, Helobious said:

Every poor person I know either has Vegas as a favorite vacation spot or a dream destination. That’s not a joke at all either. Every one. Can’t fathom someone with any semblance of class and actual money wanting to go there.

First of all, if it wasn’t for low class, I wouldn’t have any at all. Second, the first time I went to Vegas, I had $200. I’ve been 40+ more times in the last 20 years, plenty for business but plenty personal. Every level of society can find a wonderful or miserable time in Vegas. It’s a matter of the person’s choosing. It isn’t for everyone, but I love it. 

2 hours ago, achooloco said:

Surly response: LOL at reservations, let's see how that turns out for you, hope you like take out.

Real response: depending on the date, you might get lucky and be able to enter and stay inside an actual restaurant. As of right now, I'd guess you won't be able to especially because everyone just got mandated to wear masks at all times in public unless you can social distance. If I was betting on the info available right now, I'd say probably 50/50 restaurants will allow dining in by that time. Hopefully you get lucky.

I was fucking around and fantasizing. The only thing real in the post is the airline pricing. I miss travel. That may be the most depressing thing in all of this, you know,  besides the widespread death and economic collapse this has caused. Tip of my hat to someone with the balls to fly in May for pleasure. Just don’t let them come over for dinner. 

Cool side story - if you look at United flights from here till the end of June, out of Houston, the price for the ticket doesn’t vary by flight per each destination.  I didn’t get scientific about it, but that’s what it looks like. Doesn’t matter when you fly or come back, round trip price is stuck where it is stuck. We won’t see that ever again. I bet it’s similar from other destinations. 

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2 hours ago, achooloco said:

Surly response: LOL at reservations, let's see how that turns out for you, hope you like take out.

Real response: depending on the date, you might get lucky and be able to enter and stay inside an actual restaurant. As of right now, I'd guess you won't be able to especially because everyone just got mandated to wear masks at all times in public unless you can social distance. If I was betting on the info available right now, I'd say probably 50/50 restaurants will allow dining in by that time. Hopefully you get lucky.

Hank Scorpio’d

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Travis county been on lock down since, what, 3/24. If this fucking chart doesn't turn a corner soon it's gonna be a "fuck it" moment for a lot of people.

Capture0415.jpg

Small sample size of a handful of my friends but I’m starting to see some weird reversals. The previous lock it all down Greenspoint camp is wanting to open up soon and the no big deal it’s only the flu camp is wanting to lock it down more and for much longer.

24 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Cool side story - if you look at United flights from here till the end of June, out of Houston, the price for the ticket doesn’t vary by flight per each destination.  I didn’t get scientific about it, but that’s what it looks like. Doesn’t matter when you fly or come back, round trip price is stuck where it is stuck. We won’t see that ever again. I bet it’s similar from other destinations. 

It’s been that way at least a week or two now and same on Southwest and I have to fly out of Corpus. I’ve bought a bunch of round trip tickets to CR. Whenever we get to start flying again i’ll have saved a shitload in airfare. I feel like I should buy more.

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7 hours ago, Helobious said:

Every poor person I know either has Vegas as a favorite vacation spot or a dream destination. That’s not a joke at all either. Every one. Can’t fathom someone with any semblance of class and actual money wanting to go there.

That's how I feel about NYC.  Went in November and don't care if I ever go back.

Edited by Iceman
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7 hours ago, Helobious said:

Every poor person I know either has Vegas as a favorite vacation spot or a dream destination. That’s not a joke at all either. Every one. Can’t fathom someone with any semblance of class and actual money wanting to go there.

That's crazy talk or someone has never been to Vegas before.  And yes I'm a class less SOB.  But Vegas is awesome.  Top notch food.  Top notch golf courses.  Top notch sight seeing.  Gambling is fun.  The entertainment is amazing.  I'll just put you in the haters club

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10 hours ago, Loco said:

I have to assume it's a fractional points model, it doesn't matter if they can't occupy the unit (similar to hurricane damage). It's a use it or lose it type thing.  The association pays the maintenance, but the developer is the one who is fucked...  tour flow and sales crater.  Such a sleazy business, but a wildly profitable one assuming you can convert units.

I'm trying to feel sorry for Timeshare companies, but my sympathy meter is empty.  

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29 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Lulz at the Vegas slam.

Vegas has a big mix of socio-economic classes. Go to Circus Circus and people watch, then go to Wynn and do the same. It's better if you're stoned, BTW. People watching alone is a reason to hit Vegas. It among my favorite things.

Now, take a significant other. Arrive in the AM and take them shopping. Miday grab a nice lunch then get Spa treatments for both. Take them to see a Cirque show or whatever after a nice meal out.  Head back to the hotel. If you aren't having wicked nasty hot fucking time, you need a new person or you're doing it wrong.

You can do the same in NYC or Chicago but there is no gambling and I'd argue the people watching is way better. I've spend NYE in Manhattan, downtown Chicago and Las Vegas. The people show in Vegas is far more amusing.

I've never been a Vegas guy (not into gambling), but the brother lived the 20 years, and the son is stationed there now.  I've always had a blast, and people watching is always part of that.

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Just now, BurntEyes said:

Yeah, I know several non-gamblers that enjoy going with me for food, people watching and general debauchery. Helicopter flight over the strip at night, Golf, shooting fully automatic military guns, shows, hookers, off roading tours outside the city, boxing matches, MMA, the aquarium, roller coaster type rides etc. There is a ton of shit to do that isn't gambling.

Yep, lots of great food places (on and off the strip), and the bars.   I did a couple college football weekends with the son. We'd go to Caesars, and hang in the Monte Cristo, an uber cool cigar bar with a wall of big screens.  Great cigars, bourbon, good eats, the son, and college football all day.   

Flights, and entertainment expenses were about what I'd spend for 2 jacked up hotel rate nights in Blacksburg.   Add in legal weed for the win.

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10 hours ago, Helobious said:

Every poor person I know either has Vegas as a favorite vacation spot or a dream destination. That’s not a joke at all either. Every one. Can’t fathom someone with any semblance of class and actual money wanting to go there.

I don't want to party with this guy.

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2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

That's crazy talk or someone has never been to Vegas before.  And yes I'm a class less SOB.  But Vegas is awesome.  Top notch food.  Top notch golf courses.  Top notch sight seeing.  Gambling is fun.  The entertainment is amazing.  I'll just put you in the haters club

You left out top notch pussy......

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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