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Buying a New Vehicle in this environment


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I’d been planning on trading in my current vehicle this summer because it’s getting to be time too, or committing to driving the wheels off. Talked the guy I like to deal with, told me that nothing to be had on popular Ford models in this model year, can’t even put in an order. They implied they could probably put me in a Jeep, but I didn’t have them do an inventory search or anything yet to see if that’s true. Might look at a 4Runner but can’t imagine they aren’t in short supply at this point too. Has anyone else tried to buy anything recently?  

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Supply shortage. Brother bought an “in demand” truck a year ago and MADE over 5K selling it back recently. First time I’ve ever heard of someone making money on a used car. 
 

 

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1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I really don’t see why you would unless you absolutely have to.

They were dangling ridiculous trade value in front me which if they had something I wanted would have been pretty tempting to upgrade into a less cursed vehicle

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Wife had a ‘19 QX80. I got into a ‘21 QX80 at a lower price. The value on used SUVs is ridiculous. 

I need to unload my Escalade as it’s approaching 90,000 miles. I probably want a Denali XL but might go with a shorter one. Or a Tahoe High Country. What should I do?

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I’ve been wanting to get a used truck to make working on our few rental properties easier.  I can’t seem to find (legitimate) trucks that don’t already have a ton of miles on it for less than $15-20k, and that’s not even getting me a an extended cab f150/Silverado type truck, and I’d prefer a crew cab. 
 

Are there really any trucks worth buying with 150-200k miles?  I don’t need it to look pretty, but the ac needs to work, it needs to move shit, and it needs to be safe. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I need to unload my Escalade as it’s approaching 90,000 miles. I probably want a Denali XL but might go with a shorter one. Or a Tahoe High Country. What shoul

Wife has always had the normal sized one until this go around, when we went XL.  Can’t imagine going back.  I wouldn’t be afraid of 90k unless you just like new vehicles. The previous Denali is on ranch duty now at 240k-ish mostly trouble free miles.  

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Anecdotal, but based on the parts shipping demand going on with our dedicated fleet trucking---European Brands and likely U.S. brands are still in a crunch until Oct/Nov of this year.  And prices will reflect that.  We can't keep up it.  Again, anecdotal.  On a personal note, we're sticking with our old junkers until at about at the end of the year.  Good news though is financing is still aggressive if you can find the vroom-vroom you like.  And most important, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the car dealership in Texas.  And we will laugh and laugh about their demise until we are very old men.  

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

And most important, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the car dealership in Texas.  And we will laugh and laugh about their demise until we are very old men.  

How so?  The Tesla exception that is hopefully about to get passed in the special session?  That was only for brands that have never had a dealership (I thought) so that’s going to be a very slim minority, unless I’m missing something…

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10 hours ago, Lobo said:

Anecdotal, but based on the parts shipping demand going on with our dedicated fleet trucking---European Brands and likely U.S. brands are still in a crunch until Oct/Nov of this year.  And prices will reflect that.  We can't keep up it.  Again, anecdotal.  On a personal note, we're sticking with our old junkers until at about at the end of the year.  Good news though is financing is still aggressive if you can find the vroom-vroom you like.  And most important, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the car dealership in Texas.  And we will laugh and laugh about their demise until we are very old men.  

I’ve got some good family friends that are dealers in Austin and DFW. I won’t laugh. Is this like your prediction about banks?

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11 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

Wife has always had the normal sized one until this go around, when we went XL.  Can’t imagine going back.  I wouldn’t be afraid of 90k unless you just like new vehicles. The previous Denali is on ranch duty now at 240k-ish mostly trouble free miles.  

Value goes down considerably when you breach the 100K mark. It’s a 2015. It’s time buddy. It’s time. 

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Value goes down considerably when you breach the 100K mark. It’s a 2015. It’s time buddy. It’s time. 

Yeah I get that. And people do things different; I run them until they actually develop issues (rarely do these days).  I’m a new truck buyer, but wife doesn’t care so it works out for us.  Last 2 we bought at 1.5 yo for about ~60% of what they drive off the lot for.  I’m ok with that.  I think we just slipped in on the last one before prices went crazy.  I felt very OK with what we paid. 

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31 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’ve got some good family friends that are dealers in Austin and DFW. I won’t laugh. Is this like your prediction about banks?

I agree-I think the little fiefs that have developed with the dealer model aren’t in line with our vision of American capitalism, but it’s better than sending all the profit to Detroit or Tokyo.  At least with the current system some of that gets recycled into the local economy (Coverts need groceries, too).  

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58 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I’ve got some good family friends that are dealers in Austin and DFW. I won’t laugh. Is this like your prediction about banks?

My prediction about banks isn't mine, it's the plurality in the industry.  And it wasn't about the banks themselves (just like cars/trucks aren't going anywhere), but about branches closing because of the unnecessary cost of expensive branch locations, including our bank.  We estimate about 4,000+ branches will close in 2021 alone.  10,000 branches will be closing a year by the end of the decade.  Covid-19 just accelerated what we already knew to be true, people don't like driving to banks to do shit they can do on their phone.  Banks offer less competitive rates because of their own baked-in high G&A.  Obviously some of the branch trimming will also be due to M&A/A&D.  

https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2021/04/the-real-story-on-bank-branch-closures/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/palashghosh/2021/01/29/us-banks-closing-branches-at-rapid-pace-making-poor-and-rural-customers-vulnerable-to-usurious-lenders/?sh=66da8eb07691

As for car dealerships.  The automobile products aren't going away (just like loans & deposits), but how we get them is changing.  It's gonna take awhile in Texas, more than in other states.  But the cracks are beginning to show.  In many other states, new car dealerships are no longer seeing used car sales/service making up as much of their revenue stream as it once did with disruptive companies like Carvana, Shift, Vroom, et. al.  And then there's the new car-direct-to-consumer model.  Tesla is catching a lot of arrows in the back for being the first over the ridge.  This one is a little nerdy and long:  https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/distribution-of-vehicles-in-the-u-s-and-58391/

But eventually even mainstream brands (Nissan, Volkswagen, et. al.), in certain states, ship directly to you from the port (obviously at a higher cost for 'destination fee').  It's a decade away from happening, but legislation in many states, even Michigan, points to this eventual reality.  It's actually not bad news for dealerships if they can adapt correctly.  They already offer you the ability to order a customized-option car that isn't available on the lot or within their network of dealerships.  They still get paid on that car between dealer holdback and in-house financing.  Eventually they may realize they don't need 40 acres with massive inventory.  Reduce that inventory by 50%+ and keep your margin centers like the service department, in-house financing, and dealer-installed accessories.  Consumers may opt to order direct from the factory (as they are already doing with Tesla and a handful of other premium brands).  But they'll still come back to the dealer servicing, especially during the warranty phase.  If the dealerships are smart, they'll be proactive and arrange a monopoly on the financing of those factory-direct vehicles before the laws are changed.  I just don't see how the model, as it exists today, is unchanged for the dealer by the end of this decade.  I'm probably wrong, but there's an army of smart people out there who are gunning solely to upend the dealership monopoly in many states (as I said Texas will be one of the last to change).  

To tie it back to the OP...many of us know family and friends that are getting offers from dealerships right now to trade their recent purchase for an even newer model.  Financing is cheap, the incentives are there, the chip backlog is getting worse somehow, and many other mitigating factors.  I am very curious to see how this compressed inventory cycle we are in affects dealerships here in Texas.  People are going in for an oil change or standard warrant maintenance and walking out with an offer for their current car that is what they paid for it 2 years ago.  This will be an interesting case study in how dealerships will evolve or devolve in the next 18 months.  

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49 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I agree-I think the little fiefs that have developed with the dealer model aren’t in line with our vision of American capitalism, but it’s better than sending all the profit to Detroit or Tokyo.  At least with the current system some of that gets recycled into the local economy (Coverts need groceries, too).  

Dealership owners like the Coverts are few and far between these days. Most dealerships are owned by large national conglomerates (AutoNation, Berkshire Hathaway, Sonic, Penske, etc). Most of those dollars leave the community.

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On 6/15/2021 at 6:46 PM, Dr. Beeper said:

Wife had a ‘19 QX80. I got into a ‘21 QX80 at a lower price. The value on used SUVs is ridiculous. 

I need to unload my Escalade as it’s approaching 90,000 miles. I probably want a Denali XL but might go with a shorter one. Or a Tahoe High Country. What should I do?

I have the '21 Tahoe. 3rd row has plenty of space and still provides some storage in the back. Granted I only have 2 kids but it's given me enough room for hauling stuff on road trips.

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5 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I have the '21 Tahoe. 3rd row has plenty of space and still provides some storage in the back. Granted I only have 2 kids but it's given me enough room for hauling stuff on road trips.

Had the '20 Tahoe. With 3 or more kids it's not possible. The cargo space is poo poo when you have the 3rd row up and in use, a city jogger stroller and 1 bag of groceries maybe can fit. 

Had to go with the '21 Escalade ESV which was a large amount of money but that size was honestly necessary, but with the new body style/trim, I think I can get my value out of it and be in the black if I keep it for a decade.

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5 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I have the '21 Tahoe. 3rd row has plenty of space and still provides some storage in the back. Granted I only have 2 kids but it's given me enough room for hauling stuff on road trips.

 

41 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

Had the '20 Tahoe. With 3 or more kids it's not possible. The cargo space is poo poo when you have the 3rd row up and in use, a city jogger stroller and 1 bag of groceries maybe can fit. 

Had to go with the '21 Escalade ESV which was a large amount of money but that size was honestly necessary, but with the new body style/trim, I think I can get my value out of it and be in the black if I keep it for a decade.

I have 3 kids. I’m constantly hauling them to and from football, hoops, baseball and lax tourneys. Most of those have a lot of equipment. I carpool and take other kids too. Also, we will drive to CO or FL, and my wife likes overpacking the fuck out of each one of our kids. I think Donkey answered my question. I think. 

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36 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

 

I have 3 kids. I’m constantly hauling them to and from football, hoops, baseball and lax tourneys. Most of those have a lot of equipment. I carpool and take other kids too. Also, we will drive to CO or FL, and my wife likes overpacking the fuck out of each one of our kids. I think Donkey answered my question. I think. 

Zero chance the Tahoe will work. You need the Yukon XL or ESV or Suburban sized SUV's.

We went to Destin in the Tahoe with only 2 kids and the luggage/bags barely fit.

We looked at Minivans and even the cargo space in a minivan is very small when all seats are in use.

Like everyone else in the 90's/00's I made fun of the Excursion or whatever that huge SUV was called, but man, I get it now.

Edited by DonkeyCigars
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47 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

 

I have 3 kids. I’m constantly hauling them to and from football, hoops, baseball and lax tourneys. Most of those have a lot of equipment. I carpool and take other kids too. Also, we will drive to CO or FL, and my wife likes overpacking the fuck out of each one of our kids. I think Donkey answered my question. I think. 

I'd agree. If you have to road trip and need the 3rd row in use you would be stuck using some turtle shell or some shit. In that case the extra space is probably the right answer. The thing I do like about my model is the entertainment system behind each headrest. You can run independent sources to each so each kids can watch whatever they want. I have an Apple TV running on one and a Roku on the other. Comes in handy for those road trips.

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XL is where it’s at. Trip to FL with 3 girls and wife, and all the luggage that comes with. Easy peasy.  Fucking 6.2, 4x4 on 33’s, and still got 22mpg. Crazy how much better it is than the Denali it replaced.  

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Full sized van is really the best answer for families and road trips. Especially if they involve something like camping that requires extra gear. I can have the third row in and still fit out double stroller in the back without even folding it up. And for tens of thousands less than a suburban or comparable.

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2 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Full sized van is really the best answer for families and road trips. Especially if they involve something like camping that requires extra gear. I can have the third row in and still fit out double stroller in the back without even folding it up. And for tens of thousands less than a suburban or comparable.

Downside: getting a wife to agree to drive a full-size van.

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11 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Unless those things have changed in driveability since the 2000s, they are a pain in the ass and a wreck waiting to happen all the time.  You will hate yourself having to drive them everyday unless you are getting paid for it. 

Bang bus video shoots on the side.

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The Sprinter in the active market has produced some good builds for those inclined.

It's overkill for Denver or Aspen. 

But if I had the luxury of living in or near a snow, mountain, rock, or desert playground, I would look at the builders using the 4WD model. It's raised 3 to 4 inches (std) and has the best drivetrain of the sprinter platform (std.).

An example from https://sportsmobile.com/mercedes-benz-4x4-sprinter/

A gun metal grey Sportsmobile 4x4 custom camper van conversion traveling through the mountains.

I can't imagine pulling up in a car line to pick up the kids in this, but it might be amusing for some of youse guys.

For backcountry devotees, this looks like a capable base camp. 

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Sorry for the derail. Back to the topic.

The GM line of big SUV's are great for families. Smoot highway drivers (once you get used to the size).

My family of 5 + 1 grandmom put a lot of miles in a Suburban going to and from the Midwest and the Western mountains with 1/10 the complaints a regular Tahoe.

  • The captain chairs in the second row were key my needs.
  • Tinted windows dark in the passenger area (so they feel like movie stars) or when they just need space. 
  • The back two seats were chill and were primo spots.
  • The cargo hold is ample for the biggest of packers.
  • Rack ready for skis/bikes.
    • Trailer hitch pod with lights hookup is available from Thule/Yakima when extra equipment is needed. 

It's a versatile vehicle.

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We have 3 kids and a Chrysler Pacifica minivan. It has surprisingly good cargo space, even with all the seats up. We added a trailer hitch for carrying bikes but could put a cargo carrier basket or more if we thought we needed more. images.jpeg.b4f904df165ebff2e5d31d4a274a2fe2.jpeg

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10 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The Sprinter in the active market has produced some good builds for those inclined.

It's overkill for Denver or Aspen. 

But if I had the luxury of living in or near a snow, mountain, rock, or desert playground, I would look at the builders using the 4WD model. It's raised 3 to 4 inches (std) and has the best drivetrain of the sprinter platform (std.).

An example from https://sportsmobile.com/mercedes-benz-4x4-sprinter/

A gun metal grey Sportsmobile 4x4 custom camper van conversion traveling through the mountains.

I can't imagine pulling up in a car line to pick up the kids in this, but it might be amusing for some of youse guys.

For backcountry devotees, this looks like a capable base camp. 

These newer passenger vans visually appear to have a high center of gravity and could easily flip. Is that reality or just a perception?

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Zero chance the Tahoe will work. You need the Yukon XL or ESV or Suburban sized SUV's.
We went to Destin in the Tahoe with only 2 kids and the luggage/bags barely fit.
We looked at Minivans and even the cargo space in a minivan is very small when all seats are in use.
Like everyone else in the 90's/00's I made fun of the Excursion or whatever that huge SUV was called, but man, I get it now.

I think you have too much shit. I used to schlep around 3 in a JX35 with all of their stuffed animals luggage and wife packing for 3x the duration.

A Sienna has 30 cubic feet of cargo behind the 3rd row. If I only had 2 kids I would opt for a 2 row suv and have about 38 cubic feet (edge) or 20ish in the that alfa suv.

Plus there is always roof storage for additional cargo if necessary.
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1 hour ago, Nivek said:


I think you have too much shit. I used to schlep around 3 in a JX35 with all of their stuffed animals luggage and wife packing for 3x the duration.

A Sienna has 30 cubic feet of cargo behind the 3rd row. If I only had 2 kids I would opt for a 2 row suv and have about 38 cubic feet (edge) or 20ish in the that alfa suv.

Plus there is always roof storage for additional cargo if necessary.

yea, with toddlers/infants, and strollers and crap of everyone else, there is too much stuff.

Also, my understanding was the roof storage was what we were trying to avoid.

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